Name: 泰國大選：變革的希望，還是不穩定的未來？ | DW 直播 (Thai elections: Hope for change, or an unstable future awaits? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-02-07T17:01:44.000Z
Duration: 7 min 10 s

情態副詞

The country is heading into a closely watched election that could test the country's long promised return to stable civilian rule.

該國正準備迎接一場備受關注的選舉，這場選舉可能會考驗該國長期以來承諾的穩定文官統治的回歸。

基礎被動語態

The polls are seen as a three way race between conservatives, populists and the Progressive People's Party, which polls suggest is picking up support from younger voters.

民調顯示，這是一場保守黨、民粹主義者和進步人民黨之間的三角對決，民調顯示進步人民黨正獲得年輕選民的支持。

Thailand's parliament is deeply fragmented and a coalition government is the Most likely outcome.

泰國國會嚴重分裂，聯合政府是最有可能的結果。

DW's Southeast Asia correspondent Georg Mattes is in the Thai capital, Bangkok.

DW 的東南亞特派記者 Georg Mattes 正在泰國首都曼谷。

A lot of hope rests on this man's shoulders.

很多希望都寄託在這個人的身上。

Natapong Ruang Panyarwood, the former tech executive is now the frontman of the Progressive People's Party and could become Thailand's next leader.

Natapong Ruang Panyarwood，這位前科技高管，現在是進步人民黨的發言人，並可能成為泰國下一任領導人。

Are you ready to choose a new constitution?

你們準備好選擇一部新憲法了嗎？

His party won the last election by a landslide but was pushed into opposition.

他的黨在上屆選舉中以壓倒性勝利勝出，但卻被擠到了反對黨的位置。

MPs like Buntin Nongjom now hope to defend their seats and finally make it into government.

國會議員 Buntin Nongjom 現在希望保住席位，最終進入政府。

If you would like to keep the things they are, choose the previous party.

如果你們想維持現狀，就選擇前政黨。

We are only the one alternative left for the people to protect the interests of the people, to change things if you want something new.

我們是人民僅剩的唯一選擇，來保護人民的利益，如果你們想要改變，我們就會帶來改變。

In the last election, the People's Party won over young voters in particular.

在上屆選舉中，人民黨特別贏得了年輕選民的支持。

但其他政黨也注意到了這一點。

Many are now campaigning with younger candidates.

許多政黨現在都找年輕的候選人來競選。

Even conservative parties like Phum Chai Thai.

就連像 Phum Chai Thai 這樣的保守黨也是。

The interim Prime Minister tells me, what kind of change will you bring for Thailand?

代理總理告訴我，你們會為泰國帶來什麼樣的改變？

We haven't had much progress for a long time, you know, and

我們很久沒有什麼進步了，你知道，而且

now I think we've lost many, many years in terms of economic progress.

我認為我們在經濟進步方面已經損失了很多很多年。

One thing Phumchaitai wants to keep the military firmly in charge of the armed border dispute with neighboring Cambodia.

Phumchaitai 希望讓軍方嚴密掌控與鄰國高棉的武裝邊境爭端。

The conflict has fueled nationalism and party leader Anutin hopes to capitalize on that, building a conservative pro military coalition to return to power.

這場衝突助長了民族主義，黨魁 Anutin 希望藉此機會，建立一個保守的親軍方聯合政府來重返執政。

前國會議員 Buntin 希望阻止這件事。

They are incapable of solving border conflict and if we elect them so it will go on another four years.

他們無力解決邊境衝突，如果我們選他們，這將會再持續四年。

所以我們必須談判和溝通，對吧？

Come and find common interest and then try to find peaceful solution.

找出共同利益，然後試圖找到和平解決方案。

Expectations are high across Thailand's political spectrum, but one thing is almost certain.

泰國政壇的期望很高，但有一件事幾乎是確定的。

沒有任何一個政黨能單獨執政。

And that was a report by DW Asia Pacific bureau chief Georg Mattis who's joining us now from the Thai capital, Bangkok.

這是 DW 亞太區總編輯 Georg Mattis 的報導，他現在從泰國首都曼谷加入我們。

Georg, are we looking at change in Thailand and at a stable government?

Georg，我們看到泰國將有變革，也會有穩定的政府嗎？

And that's a question many Thai people have raised here.

這也是許多泰國民眾在這裡提出的疑問。

I would say it really depends on what kind of coalition can be formed.

我會說，這真的取決於能組成什麼樣的聯合政府。

There's basically two Rough options here.

這裡基本上有兩種大致的選項。

You have the People's Party, we've seen it in the report.

你有眾議院黨，我們在報導中看到了。

They could team up with a pure Thai party, basically a labor oriented party that also is strong in rural areas in Thailand and form a government.

他們可以跟一個純泰黨聯手，基本上是一個以勞工為導向、在泰國鄉村地區也很強的政黨，然後組成政府。

Or you have the Boomchai Thai Party which was also seen in the report with Prime Minister Anantin, caretaker prime minister I should say.

或者，你也可以選擇報導中也出現過的、由總理 Anutin（應該說代理總理）領導的泰自豪黨。

And that would cover the conservative camp.

Whoever gets a strong majority and a strong mandate can create a stable government if either side will make it.

無論哪一方能取得強勢多數和強勢授權，都可以組成一個穩定的政府。

That we will have to see and find out tomorrow now.

這個我們得等到明天才能知道。

And what are the main topics that will actually decide which party people will vote for?

那麼，哪些是決定人們會投票給哪個政黨的主要議題呢？

I would say definitely economy, Economy, economy.

我認為絕對是經濟，經濟，經濟。

You have heard the foreign minister here in my report.

你剛才在我的報導中聽到了外交部長的發言。

That is something that is a big concern, particularly for young people.

這是一個大問題，特別是對於年輕人來說。

Low wage labor is lacking in Thailand and skilled labor is finding it difficult to find good jobs.

泰國缺乏低薪勞工，而技術勞工則難以找到好工作。

And then of course you have the ongoing border conflict, the armed conflict with neighboring Cambodia that has been left to the military to handle.

當然，還有持續中的邊境衝突，與鄰國高棉的武裝衝突，這部分就交給軍方處理了。

But the financial outfall of all of this, the lacking border trade, all the cost that comes with this expensive conflict, one has to say and needs to be handled by the civilian government and it will fall into the hands of whoever gets into the seat of power.

但這一切的財務後果，邊境貿易的匱乏，以及這場昂貴衝突所帶來的成本，都必須由文人政府來處理，並且將由掌權者來承擔。

Now the People's Party is leading in the polls and as we've seen in your report, it was stopped last time.

現在前進黨在民調中領先，正如你在報導中看到的，他們上次被阻止了。

Nevertheless, will this change this time?

Do supporters believe this time will be different?

支持者們相信這次會不一樣嗎？

Now of course, that is what supporters hope and the party rather cleverly acted I would say.

當然，這就是支持者們的期望，我認為該黨的策略相當聰明。

Now they have a couple of years experience in the opposition.

他們現在在野黨有幾年的經驗了。

They've learned how this game works in Thailand, how it, how the political system works and they've backtracked on some of their more radical idea.

他們學會了泰國的政治運作方式，政治體系是如何運作的，並且他們也收回了一些更激進的想法。

For instance, a reform of the Lise Majest, the royal defamation law that you have in Thailand that prohibits that you criticize the king publicly, things like that, sensitive stuff like that, big breakups of.

例如，改革泰國的侮辱王室法，這項法律禁止公開批評國王，諸如此類敏感的事情，以及大型的瓦解。

They have moved away from that and want to slowly start reforming the system.

他們已經放棄了那些想法，想要慢慢開始改革體制。

And I think that's what a lot of voters also expect.

而且我認為這也是很多選民的期望。

They have learned two prime ministers have been deinstalled in three years.

他們已經學到三年內有兩位總理被罷免了。

Things will not go fast, but they could move forward slowly.

事情不會進展得很快，但可以緩慢地向前推進。

But first, of course Thailand needs a government and if no party wins outright, what coalitions look likely?

不過首先，泰國當然需要一個政府，如果沒有任何一個政黨贏得絕對多數，哪些聯合政府看起來比較有可能？

Well then you would have the exact deadlock that many fear here.

嗯，那就會出現許多人擔心的僵局。

The you have a huge number of parties, a huge number of interest groups behind these parties, and

然後你會看到數量龐大的政黨，以及這些政黨背後龐大的利益團體，

they're not really made for coalition building.

而且他們其實不太擅長建立聯合政府。

In the last election to elect the prime minister, for instance, you still had the upper house, the Senate, to decide as well.

例如，在上一次選舉中選出總理時，參議院的上議院也還有決定權。

And that is a big plus for the People's Party, for instance, because their candidate was blocked by the Senate in the last round.

這對進步人民黨來說是一大優勢，例如，因為他們的候選人上次被參議院擋下了。

But it, it means that coalitions have become all the more important.

但這也意味著聯合政府變得更加重要。

However, most parties have said they don't want to say who they can work together with.

然而，大多數政黨都說他們不想透露能和誰合作。

So it's very hard to tell at this point who could be a strong coalition, which party has the best chances that we'll have to wait and see.

所以目前很難說誰能組成強勢聯合政府，哪個政黨機會最大，我們得拭目以待。