Name: 投資者的炒金熱潮是否正在引發一場「糖癮」？ | The Dip Podcast (Is investor speculation in gold causing a sugar rush? | The Dip Podcast)
Uploaded: 2026-01-30T17:03:33.000Z
Duration: 9 min 39 s

情態副詞

Gold has been on a tear recently, hitting a new high of $5,500 per ounce, which means that the value of gold has more than doubled over the last two years.

黃金近期飆漲，創下每盎司 5,500 美元的歷史新高，這意味著黃金價值在過去兩年內翻了一倍多。

Yeah, and it all kicked off with that 4,000 mark that it hit last year.

對啊，這一切都始於去年它達到的 4,000 點關卡。

轉承詞

And that was a big record scratch moment because before then it felt like, you know, gold is a safe haven amid geopolitical and economic turmoil.

那時候大家覺得黃金是地緣政治和經濟動盪下的安全避風港，所以這個情況出現時，真的讓人大吃一驚。

But then analysts started saying it's acting a bit more like speculation.

但後來分析師開始說，它有點像投機了。

Like if people put money on bitcoin, expecting, or let's say speculating on price jumps right in the way of.

就像大家把錢投入 bitcoin，期待，或者說是在預期價格飆升的同時進行投機。

And that's all related to US President Donald Trump cutting trade ties and throwing up tariffs on countries around the world.

這一切都跟美國總統唐納·川普切斷貿易關係並對世界各國徵收關稅有關。

There's a lot of chatter around gold right now.

現在關於黃金的討論非常熱烈。

So for more, we're joined by Emily Leshner from DW Business.

想了解更多，我們請到 DW Business 的 Emily Leshner。

Emily, let's talk about these wild gold prices we're seeing right now.

Emily，我們來聊聊現在劇烈的金價。

Another thing that happened during the last big increase that Daniel was just talking about was that the US Government was shut down and there's another shutdown being talked about right now.

丹尼爾剛才提到的上次大幅上漲期間，另一件發生的事是美國政府關閉，而現在又在討論另一次關閉。

I mean, well, you can't really draw a straight line from one to the other, but

我是說，嗯，你不能真的從一個直接連結到另一個，但是

definitely that the pending, the possibility of a US Government shutdown, it definitely contributes to a growing sense of geopolitical and economic instability right now.

懸而未決的美國政府關閉的可能性，確實加劇了目前日益增長的地緣政治和經濟不穩定感。

And that instability and that uncertainty that comes with it is what is really driving the price of gold at the moment.

而這種不穩定性和隨之而來的不確定性，正是目前推動金價的真正原因。

And if you, if you look back historically, the price of gold hasn't always risen during the time of a US Government shutdown.

如果你歷史上回顧一下，在美國政府關閉期間，金價並非總是上漲。

It did last year in October and has been rising consistently since.

去年十月確實如此，而且從那時起一直穩定上漲。

But if you look back, for example, at 2013, the shutdown during President Barack Obama's administration, there wasn't a steady increase in gold prices.

但如果你回顧一下，例如 2013 年歐巴馬總統任期內的關閉，金價並沒有穩步上漲。

Also during the 2018 government shutdown during Trump's first term, gold prices went up slightly, but

在川普第一個任期內的 2018 年政府關閉期間，金價也略有上漲，但

So you can say that this uncertainty is certainly driving up the price of gold, but

所以你可以說，這種不確定性確實推升了金價，但

不過，它確實有助於金價上漲。

And so, Emily, we've seen a lot of back and forth with Donald Trump lately, you know, putting threats on Greenland and then taking them off.

所以 Emily，我們最近看到川普總統來來回回的，你知道，威脅格陵蘭又收回。

you know, at some point there was even the, a question mark of a military intervention which Trump then squashed at Davos.

你知道，在某個時候甚至出現了軍事介入的可能性，川普在達沃斯又將其壓制。

So has this also had a knock on effect on the gold price as well or has it held back a little bit from that?

所以這對金價也有連帶影響嗎？還是說金價是以稍微停滯了？

I mean, there has been a consistent trend in the gold price going up.

我的意思是，金價一直以來都有穩定的上漲趨勢。

When Trump said that he and the EU had found a framework agreement over Greenland at Davos, the markets did trim some of the games on gold.

當川普在達沃斯說他和歐盟就格陵蘭問題達成框架協議時，市場確實從黃金上削減了一些漲幅。

But analysts say that it's not enough to throw off the trend.

但分析師認為，這還不足以改變趨勢。

one of the reasons that we're talking to you about gold today, because it's not just this wave of gold price increases that we want to talk about, but

我們今天之所以會跟你聊黃金，不只是因為這波金價上漲，而是

also you've been looking at, apparently Germany want right now storing its gold in the US but talking about maybe repatriating it.

還有一個原因，是德國似乎想把目前存放在美國的黃金運回國內。

How did so much German gold end up in the U.S.

德國的黃金是怎麼會存了這麼多在美國的呢？

yeah, after World War II, until around the 1970s, West Germany experienced an economic boom, and

是的，二戰後，大約到了1970年代，西德經歷了一段經濟起飛期，

that was largely because of the success of its car and machinery sectors.

這很大程度上歸功於他們的汽車和機械產業的成功。

So West Germany accumulated a trade surplus with the US they converted it into a safe asset, and

所以西德對美國累積了貿易順差，他們將其轉化為安全的資產，

they kept it in the US and there were really strong concerns at the time that the Soviet Union would invade West Germany and take its gold reserves.

並將其存放在美國，當時大家非常擔心蘇聯會入侵西德並奪走他們的黃金儲備。

And that's much like the Nazis took Italy's gold reserves during World War II, 119 ton of it from the bank of Italy and moved it to Berlin.

這就像二戰時納粹從義大利銀行拿走119噸黃金儲備並運往柏林一樣。

他們在巴黎的黃金一直到2017年都還在那裡。

But 37% of these of its total gold reserves are in New York.

但他們總黃金儲備的37%都在紐約。

It's now worth an estimated 162 billion euros, which is a nice chunk of change.

現在價值估計有1620億歐元，這可是一筆可觀的數目。

But that gold has always stayed there in the US Because Germany has, has had up and perhaps up until this point, a very trusting relationship with the US and it was seen to be much safer to keep it there than to keep it over here in Europe.

不過那些黃金一直都留在美國，因為德國一直以來，甚至到現在，都跟美國有著非常信任的關係，而且大家認為把黃金放在美國比放在歐洲安全多了。

But over the years, Germany has tried to repatriate or has repatriated some of its gold back.

不過多年來，德國一直試圖或已經將部分黃金運回國內。

From Paris three years ahead of schedule.

It also brought back some of the gold from New York during 20.

它也在20年間從紐約運回了一些黃金。

Between the years of 2013 and 2016, it brought back around 300 tons of it, but

在2013年到2016年間，它運回了約300噸，但

there are still about 1200 tons that remain in New York.

So, Emily, why are we now seeing this talk of repatriating the gold back to Germany?

那麼，Emily，為什麼我們現在又聽到要把黃金運回德國的討論呢？

Because, of course, they still have a claim on it.

因為，當然，他們仍然對這些黃金擁有所有權。

So why actually take the risk of putting it on a ship which could theoretically sink?

那麼，為什麼還要冒著把黃金放在船上，而船理論上可能會沉沒的風險呢？

I don't know if they're going to fly it or how are they going to do it.

我不知道他們會用飛的還是怎麼運，他們要怎麼做。

But, yeah, there's a risk involved in that.

There is a risk, and that's why a lot of critics are saying that it shouldn't be done.

確實有風險，這也是為什麼很多批評者說不應該這麼做。

I mean, it's very typical central banks to have gold reserves.

我的意思是，央行持有黃金儲備是很常見的。

Has the second largest gold reserves after the US the third country is Italy.

僅次於美國，擁有第二大黃金儲備，第三個國家是義大利。

So there aren't real calls to bring it back at the moment.

所以目前並沒有真正要求把它運回來。

There are a lot of difficulties in bringing it back.

So it's not as simple as some of those who want to repatriate it might make it seem.

所以事情並沒有像一些想把它運回來的人說得那麼簡單。

And, Emily, this isn't the first time that Germany's wanted his gold back.

而且，Emily，這也不是德國第一次想把黃金運回來了。

So I'm wondering, is this related to the Trump tariffs or threats of tariffs or freight relations in general?

所以我想知道，這跟川普的關稅或是關稅威脅，又或者跟貨運關係有關嗎？

I mean, I'd say maybe it's a bit of both.

It's tied pretty solidly to the unpredictability of the Trump administration.

這跟川普政府的不確定性有很深的關聯。

And this is pretty evident in those who have been calling, in what people have been in those who have been calling for the gold, what they've been saying.

而這點從那些呼籲、從那些要求黃金回來的人們說的話，就能很清楚地看出來。

So if you just take a look at some of those voices.

所以，如果你看看其中一些人的說法。

He's a former head of research at the Bundesbank and an economist.

他是德國央行（Bundesbank）前研究主管，也是一位經濟學家。

And when he was making the call to repatriate the gold, he.

當他呼籲要將黃金運回國時，他。

He was talking about how it'd be necessary for greater strategic independence from the US So in that sense.

他在談論這對實現更大的戰略獨立於美國有多麼必要。所以從這個角度來看。

That is very much tied to freight relations.

She's a finance spokesperson for the Green Party, and

she said that Germany cannot become a pawn in a geopolitical dispute.

她說德國不能在地緣政治爭端中成為一枚棋子。

So there again, she is alluding to the unpredictability of Trump.

所以在這裡，她又提到了川普的不可預測性。

Maybe he would, you know, use the gold as leverage in some way.

也許他會，你知道，以某種方式利用黃金作為籌碼。

He's the head of the European Taxpayers association as well as the association of German Taxpayers.

他是歐洲納稅人協會和德國納稅人協會的負責人。

And he said that Trump is just unpredictable.

他說川普就是個難以預測的人。

And so he says that's why Germany's gold is no longer safe in US Vaults.

所以他說，這就是為什麼德國的黃金不再安全地存放在美國金庫裡。

So I think that those, you know, those three kind of examples, they all represent, you know, different.

所以我覺得，你知道，這三個例子都代表了，你知道，不同的。

They represent different parties on the political spectrum or different sides on the political spectrum, and

他們代表了政治光譜上不同的政黨或不同的立場，而且

So the tariffs are certainly a part of it, the freight relations much bigger.

所以關稅當然是其中一部分，貿易關係更是大宗。

And this all matches with what European leaders were saying at Davos this year, because they were essentially talking about European sovereignty and how Europe needs to do more to stand up on all kinds of levels, not just when it comes to defense, but

這一切都與歐洲領導人在今年的達沃斯論壇上說的話相符，因為他們基本上在談論歐洲的主權，以及歐洲如何在各個層面上做得更多，不僅僅是在國防方面，

also when it comes to business and industry and all of these kinds of things, too.

而且在商業、產業以及所有這些方面也是如此。