Name: 小費裡德的觀點：川普在達沃斯會議上以權謀私，而非策略！ (Fareed’s Take: Trump wields power instead of strategy in Davos)
Uploaded: 2026-01-26T17:06:18.000Z
Duration: 10 min 46 s

程度副詞

You can say yes, and we will be very appreciative, or you can say no, and

你們可以說好，我們會很感激，也可以說不好，

That's what Donald Trump said here at Davos, laying out Europe's choices on Greenland.

這是 Donald Trump 在 Davos 說的，他闡述了 Europe 面臨 Greenland 問題的選擇。

When I asked a senior European leader whether there was relief that Trump had stepped back from the threat of military action, he answered yes.

當我問一位 senior European leader，Trump 暫緩 military action 的威脅是否讓他鬆了一口氣時，他回答說是。

But we've now seen a pattern in his dealings with us.

但我們現在看到他跟我們打交道的 pattern。

And even if this crisis gets resolved, we will remember.

就算這次 crisis 解決了，我們也會記住的。

Trump's approach to leadership is primarily transactional.

Trump 的 leadership approach 主要是 transactional。

He begins by asking who has more leverage.

他一開始就會問，誰的 leverage 比較大。

If the answer is him, he pushes as hard and as publicly as he can.

如果答案是他，他就會盡可能公開地施壓。

Not simply to win, but but to dominate, extracting the maximum price.

不只是為了贏，而是為了壓倒對方，榨取最高價碼。

For him, diplomacy is the art of the squeeze.

對他來說，外交就是勒索的藝術。

Trump enjoys using America's vast strength, built over generations almost for sport.

Trump 喜歡利用美國幾代人建立起來的龐大力量，幾乎是為了好玩。

He placed tariffs on Switzerland, he explained, and

他對瑞士課徵關稅，他解釋說，

then raised them sky high because the then Swiss president rubbed him the wrong way.

然後又大幅提高，因為當時的瑞士總統惹毛了他。

In his words, he relished recounting how quickly the Swiss came to him seeking relief.

他親口說，他很享受地回憶瑞士人如何迅速地來找他尋求 relief。

This was less strategy than a power play.

這與其說是策略，不如說是一場權力遊戲。

Last year, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutter appeared to jokingly liken Trump to a daddy intervening in a schoolyard brawl.

去年，NATO 祕書長 Mark Rutter 似乎開玩笑地將 Trump 比喻為介入校園鬥毆的爸爸。

And Trump has repeated that line with evident pleasure, including at Davos, they called me daddy.

而 Trump 也樂此不疲地重複這句話，包括在 Davos，他們叫我爸爸。

He seems to enjoy even insincere flattery because it shows that he is so powerful people have to fake their admiration for him.

他似乎很享受這種虛情假意的奉承，因為這顯示出他有多強大，強大到人們不得不假裝崇拜他。

The Europeans shouldn't take it personally.

Trump uses the same style on anyone he perceives as weak.

Trump 對於任何他認為軟弱的人，都會用同樣的態度。

In Ukraine, his irritation has often fallen less on Russia, the aggressor, than on Ukraine for refusing to accept subordinate status.

在烏克蘭，他常常對烏克蘭感到惱火，不是因為俄羅斯是侵略者，而是因為烏克蘭不願接受附屬地位。

In dealing with countries like Brazil or South Africa, he is quick to lash out over policies he dislikes.

在與巴西或南非等國家打交道時，他會因為不喜歡他們的政策而迅速發飆。

But with China, he often sounds deferential because Beijing possesses tools that could impose real costs on the United States.

但對於中國，他常常顯得很恭敬，因為北京擁有能對美國造成實際損失的工具。

And of course, he adores the Gulf monarchies because they are swimming in cash, a form of strength he respects.

當然，他也很喜歡海灣君主國，因為他們財力雄厚，這是他所尊敬的一種力量。

This is the opposite of how American leadership has worked in the modern era.

這與現代美國領導層的運作方式恰恰相反。

The United States has been the dominant power in the world for close to a century, but

美國在世界上主導地位近一個世紀了，但是

its leaders understood that primacy is not only about coercion.

它的領導人明白，主導地位不僅僅是關於脅迫。

It is also about legitimacy, reassurance and voluntary cooperation.

這也關乎正當性、安撫以及自願合作。

Power is more sustainable when it is exercised with restraint, and

influence is larger when allies feel dignity rather than fear.

盟友感受到的是尊嚴而非恐懼時，影響力更大。

America was the indispensable arsenal for the Allied cause.

美國是同盟事業不可或缺的軍火庫。

Without American aid, Britain and the Soviet Union would have lost the war, and fast.

沒有美國的援助，英國和蘇聯會迅速輸掉戰爭。

Roosevelt could have summoned Churchill and Stalin to Washington like petitioners.

Roosevelt 本可以召集 Churchill 和 Stalin 到 Washington 像請願者一樣。

Instead, despite being confined to a wheelchair and gravely ill, he traveled for hours and hours to get to Casablanca, Tehran and Yalta to meet them as equals, demonstrating in physical form the idea that partnership matters.

相反，儘管他坐著輪椅且病重，他還是花了數小時前往 Casablanca、Tehran 和 Yalta 與他們會面，像平起平坐的夥伴，用實際行動展現了夥伴關係的重要性。

Donald Trump crowed more at Davos about winning World War II than did the man who actually did the winning.

Donald Trump 在 Davos 吹噓贏得第二次世界大戰的功勞，比實際贏得戰爭的人還多。

Or consider George H.W. bush watching the Berlin Wall fall.

或者想想小布希（George H.W. Bush）看著柏林圍牆倒塌。

The United States had won the Cold War, and Bush could have crowed he deliberately did not.

美國贏得了冷戰，而小布希本可以大聲宣揚，但他刻意沒有這麼做。

He said he did not want to dance on the Wall, in part because he didn't want to steal the moment from Eastern Europeans who were winning their freedom, and

他說他不想在圍牆上跳舞，部分原因是他不想搶走東歐人民贏得自由的時刻，

in part because he didn't want to humiliate Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, who was allowing it to happen.

部分原因是他不想羞辱允許這一切發生的蘇聯領導人戈巴契夫（Mikhail Gorbachev）。

Bush understood that how you win matters, and

小布希明白贏得勝利的方式很重要，

that humiliating a weakening adversary can produce backlash and ruin the peace.

而且羞辱一個虛弱的對手可能會產生反彈，破壞和平。

Over the last quarter century, the US Treated India as an important world player, even when it was still, by the numbers, a very poor country.

在過去的二十五年裡，美國將印度視為一個重要的世界參與者，即使當時從數字上看，它仍然是一個非常貧窮的國家。

That respect was not charity, it was an investment that helped build strategic cooperation.

這種尊重不是施捨，而是一項有助於建立戰略合作的投資。

India's economy is much smaller than America's, therefore America can squeeze it by slapping prohibitively high tariffs.

印度的經濟比美國小很多，所以美國可以透過課徵高得離譜的關稅來壓榨它。

Use the leverage you have, make the other side pay the highest price and treat bruises as proof of success.

善用你擁有的籌碼，讓對方付出最高代價，並把瘀青當作成功的證明。

It may work in a one off real estate deal.

這或許在一筆一次性的房地產交易中奏效。

It is not how to build enduring businesses, let alone lasting global influence.

這不是建立永續企業的方法，更別說建立持久的全球影響力了。

Since World War II, there have been many places that the US has considered strategically vital.

第二次世界大戰以來，美國曾將許多地方視為戰略要地。

Western Europe, Norway and Finland, the South China Sea routes, the Persian Gulf, the approaches to Japan.

西歐、挪威和芬蘭、南海航線、波斯灣、日本的航道。

But in that time, America has never concluded that strategic importance requires actual annexation.

但在這段時間裡，美國從未認為戰略重要性需要實際的兼併。

It has created security through alliances, access agreements and forward presence.

美國透過同盟、准入協議和前線部署來創造安全。

美國在那裡已經有基地了，而且

it can expand its capabilities easily through cooperation rather than coercion.

可以透過合作而非脅迫，輕鬆擴展其能力。

Whether or not Trump gets his piece of ice, as he now calls Greenland, he's already accomplished something that will outlast the headlines.

無論 Trump 會不會得到他現在稱之為 Greenland 的那塊冰，他已經達成了一件能超越頭條新聞的事。

他已經給了美國的盟友一個教訓。

They will still work with Washington, of course, because power is real.

他們當然還是會跟華盛頓合作，因為權力是真實存在的。

But they will trust it less, hedge more, and

但他們會比較不信任，更多地對沖，並且

quietly plan for a world in which America no longer leads by lifting others up, but

安靜地規劃一個美國不再透過提拔他人來領導，而是

by reminding them they can be squeezed, as that European leader put it, with the same cold clarity Trump thought belonged only to him.

如那位 European leader 所說，以同樣的冷酷清晰，提醒他們會被擠壓的世界，而 Trump 認為這份清晰只屬於他。

We will remember to talk about Davos and everything around it.

我們會記得談論 Davos 和它周圍的一切。

I'm joined by Martin Wolff, chief economic commentator at the Financial Times.

陪我一起的是 Financial Times 的首席經濟評論員 Martin Wolff。

So, Martin, what was your takeaway from this rather unusual Davos.

所以 Martin，你對這次很不尋常的 Davos 有什麼感想？

Well, it's sort of shocking, but what's strange is the completely abnormal has suddenly become normal.

嗯，這有點令人震驚，但奇怪的是，完全不正常的事物突然變成了常態。

We've been in this period now for a year.

我們已經處於這個時期一年了。

I did hear him when he came to speak in that term, and

it's sort of a freak show in normal terms.

以正常的標準來看，這有點像場怪胎秀。

The way he talks, the way he presents himself, his obvious megalomania, the way he makes things up, all that is something we've just got used to.

他的談話方式、他的自我呈現、他明顯的自戀狂、他編造事物的方式，這些我們都已經習慣了。

If you step back from that and look at what has actually happened, well, he's withdrawn from the trade war.

如果你抽離這些，看看實際發生了什麼，嗯，他已經退出貿易戰了。

We thought we were going to be in by now over Greenland, or is it Iceland?

我們以為我們現在會捲入關於 Greenland，還是 Iceland 的事情？

So relations seem to have sort of been calmed down by Mark Rutte and so forth.

所以關係似乎因為 Mark Rutte 等人的努力而緩和了。

He's got some sort of peace board, which I think actually might even be relevant in the Middle East.

他有個什麼和平委員會，我覺得這在中東可能還有點用。

I think he might actually be the only person conceivably do something about the Middle East.

我覺得他可能是唯一可能在中東做點什麼的人。

And so when I look at it all, the economy is doing okay.

所以當我審視這一切時，經濟表現還不錯。

事實上，比我們擔心的還要好。

So despite all these noise, the, the incredible commotion around him, things seem quite normal and not so terrible.

所以儘管有這麼多噪音，圍繞著他的巨大騷動，事情似乎還算正常，沒有那麼糟。

And, you know, despite the circus of the politics, as you say, what's striking, and

而且，你知道的，就像你說的，儘管政治馬戲團，但令人驚訝的是，

we saw this at Davos, everybody is bullish about America.

我們在 Davos 就看到了，每個人都看好美國。

Do you think, what, what explains that, you know, a world where the politics seems to be roiling but the economy is humming.

你覺得，是什麼解釋了，你知道的，一個政治似乎動盪不安但經濟卻蓬勃發展的世界？

What we're benefiting from is the capital, knowledge, skills that have been built up across the economy in the last 20 years.

我們受益於過去二十年來，整個經濟體繫累積的資本、知識和技能。

China has a phenomenally effective economic machine.

中國擁有一個驚人有效的經濟機器。

America has a phenomenally effective economic machine.

美國也擁有一個驚人有效的經濟機器。

There's technological innovation happening everywhere.

So we can be fixated on the noise and the sound of the fury.

所以我們可以專注於噪音和激烈的紛爭。

But what I tend to say is built on the base of what we built up over 200 years, but

但我傾向於說，這是建立在我們兩百多年來的基礎之上，

particularly since 1945, the economy of the world is a fantastic momentum machine.

特別是自1945年以來，世界的經濟是一個驚人的動能機器。

And stopping that, that's beyond the powers of these powers, do you think?

而阻止這一切，這是否超出了這些強權的能力，你覺得呢？

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小費裡德的觀點：川普在達沃斯會議上以權謀私，而非策略！ (Fareed’s Take: Trump wields power instead of strategy in Davos)

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