Name: 匈牙利激戰國會大選！這次誰能脫穎而出？| DW News (Who will come out on top in Hungary's highly contested upcoming election? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-11-20T17:24:43.000Z
Duration: 7 min 8 s

To Hungary now, where lawmakers voted on Tuesday to extend a state of emergency by 180 days.

接著我們看到匈牙利，國會週二投票決定將緊急狀態延長180天。

分詞構句

That means a general election, roughly scheduled for April, will happen under the strict legal conditions that have allowed incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orban to cement his nationalist politics in recent years.

這意味著大約在四月舉行的大選，將會在現任總理 Viktor Orban 近年來鞏固其民族主義政治的嚴格法律條件下進行。

進階形容詞比較級句型

Corruption charges against Putin ally Orban, as well as cost of living concerns have seen his support drop behind the opposition Tisa party.

針對普丁盟友 Orban 的腐敗指控，以及生活成本擔憂，都讓他的支持度落後於反對黨 Tisa 黨。

Budapest, Hungary's capital, has often been where the political mood shifts, with young people in particular driving change.

匈牙利的首都布達佩斯，常常是政治情緒轉變的關鍵點，尤其是年輕人更是推動改變的動力。

I'd really like to live in a country where as a student we can live and fulfill ourselves freely, where a government would act to increase acceptance and educate the public a bit.

我真的很想住在一個國家，讓學生可以自由生活並實現自我，政府會採取行動來增加包容性並教育公眾。

It would also be great if the country wasn't being robbed.

如果國家沒有被掠奪，那就更好了。

Health care, public transport, not to mention education.

醫療保健、公共交通，還有教育。

It's easy to find people in the city who are disillusioned with the current system.

在這個城市很容易找到對現行體制感到失望的人。

I want to feel that this country exists to be there for us and not for the top 10,000.

我希望感覺這個國家是為我們而存在，而不是為那前一萬名頂尖人士。

The things that happen, I want to trust that they are happening for me and the people around me.

發生的事情，我希望相信它們是為了我跟我身邊的人而發生的。

Prime Minister Viktor Orban has ruled Hungary for the last 15 years with a supermajority of 2/3 of parliament.

總理 Viktor Orban 在過去 15 年以國會三分之二的超級多數統治匈牙利。

But now Peter Magyar and his center right to SU party are leading in many opinion polls.

但現在 Peter Magyar 和他中間偏右的 SU 黨在許多民意調查中領先。

He could win the election and form a government.

But to make real change, Magyar would have to win or build a super majority.

但要做出真正的改變，Magyar 得贏得或建立一個超級多數。

That's because Orban's government introduced a new constitution in 2011, which makes it very hard to change what it calls cardinal laws.

這是因為 Orban 的政府在 2011 年引入了新憲法，這使得改變所謂的「關鍵法案」變得非常困難。

Two thirds of parliamentary votes are needed for changes to things like election law, some media regulations and how judges are appointed.

像是選舉法、部分媒體規定以及法官的任命，都需要國會三分之二的票數才能變更。

Now Orban's government has this 2/3 majority in Parliament and made changes in many of these areas.

現在 Orban 的政府在國會擁有這個三分之二的多數，並在許多這些領域進行了變更。

If the governing party loses the election but the winner doesn't have that majority, Orban's loss would remain.

如果執政黨輸掉選舉，但贏家沒有那個多數，Orban 的失敗就會持續下去。

So how could Peter Modyar score a meaningful win?

那麼 Peter Modyar 要如何才能贏得有意義的勝利呢？

Some polls suggest as many as 29% are undecided right now.

一些民意調查顯示，目前高達 29% 的人還未決定。

Analysts say this would likely drop significantly by election day.

分析師表示，這個數字在選舉日之前可能會顯著下降。

To win them over, Magyar will have to persuade them he can solve their economic problems.

為了贏得他們的支持，Magyar 必須說服他們他能解決他們的經濟問題。

On the one hand, their assessment of the situation would point to voting for the opposition.

一方面，他們對現況的評估會指向投票給反對黨。

They're suffering from the difficult economic climate.

他們正飽受艱困的經濟氣候之苦。

They also feel that prices are high, wages are low and the country is stagnating.

他們也覺得物價高漲、薪資低落，國家停滯不前。

But a significant portion of them, those who can even decide who would be the better leader, Orban or Maya rather, choose Orban for them.

但其中有相當一部分人，那些甚至能決定誰是更好領導者的人，Orban 或 Maya，會選擇 Orban。

The idea hasn't come up yet that there could be an alternative.

還沒有出現有其他選擇的想法。

We are headed to rural Hungary, where support for Orban's Fides party has traditionally been very strong.

我們正前往匈牙利的鄉村地區，這裡一直是 Orban 的 Fides 黨傳統上非常堅強的支持區。

Here in Pustovac, about two thirds voted for Fides in the last election.

在 Pustovac 這個地方，上次大選有大約三分之二的人投票給 Fides。

Families and older people form a key part of Orban's support, but some are no longer so sure.

家庭和老年人是 Orban 支持者的重要組成部分，但有些人已經不再那麼確定了。

Yutka says she had hoped things would get better under Fides.

Yutka 說，她曾希望在 Fides 執政下情況會有所改善。

I'm undecided, unfortunately, because not everything happened in a way that they promised.

我還在猶豫，很可惜，因為事情並沒有完全照他們承諾的那樣發生。

She's weighing up whether to retire from her job, a car parts supplier.

她正在考慮是否要從她汽車零件供應商的工作中退休。

Unfortunately, the salary is very low and the pension won't be much higher either.

可惜的是，薪水非常低，終身俸也不會高多少。

所以這是一個非常艱難的決定。

Peter Magyar has been touring smaller towns and rural regions like Pustovac for months, trying to persuade voters like Yutka that he can offer a better future on the world stage.

Peter Magyar 數月來一直在 Pustovac 等較小的城鎮和鄉村地區巡迴，試圖說服像 Yutka 這樣的選民，他能在國際舞臺上提供更好的未來。

If Orban gets US and Russian presidents to meet in Budapest for Ukraine talks, that could boost his image and his polls.

如果歐爾班能促成美國和俄羅斯總統在布達佩斯會面討論烏克蘭議題，這將有助於提升他的形象和民調。

His party has published this AI generated video of him scoring against Peter Mojar.

他的政黨發布了一段由 AI 生成的影片，內容是他對 Peter Mojar 進球。

In six months, voters will decide whether to give him a red card or award him another goal.

六個月後，選民將決定是給他一張紅牌，還是讓他再進一球。

This report by Fanny Fashar, you saw her there in the report, and

這是 Fanny Fashar 的報導，你剛才在報導中看到了她，

Funny, six months ahead of the election, Hungary is deeply polarized.

真有趣，離大選還有六個月，匈牙利卻高度兩極化。

請跟我們說明一下這次的關鍵點是什麼。

The future of this country, the future of Hungary is at stake in the upcoming elections, which is to take place in six months from now.

這個國家的未來，匈牙利的未來，都將在六個月後舉行的即將到來的大選中定奪。

And the question do people here in Hungary want more of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who's been governing for more than a decade, for the past 15 years, or can they imagine an alternative?

而問題是，匈牙利的民眾是想要現任總理維克多·歐爾班，他已經執政十多年，過去十五年，還是他們能想像有其他選擇？

And at least looking at current poll numbers, very much looks like they can, because for the very first time in over a decade, the governing Fidest parties actually trailing behind in many polls with regard to the biggest opposition party, the Centre Right Tisa Party, which existed a few years ago, but

而且至少從目前的民調來看，他們很有可能可以，因為十多年來，執政的 Fidesz 政黨在許多民調中，首次落後於幾年前才成立的最大反對黨，中間偏右的 Tisa 黨，但

was just registered for the European parliamentary elections last year.

去年才剛登記參加歐洲議會選舉。

So we're speaking about a very, very young party and we are speaking about very different visions for this country.

所以我們談論的是一個非常非常年輕的政黨，以及我們對這個國家有著截然不同的願景。

When you talk to people who support either Fides, the Fidest Party, or the Center Right Tisa Party, or all the other parties that exist as well.

當你和支持 Fidesz 政黨、中間偏右的 Tisa 黨，或是其他所有存在的政黨的人們交談時。

And I think the main difference here, also speaking about European Union, is that while Prime Minister Viktor Orban tries to portray the European Union that Hungary is, is a part of as.

我認為主要的差異，同時也是關於歐洲聯盟的，在於現任總理維克多·歐爾班試圖將匈牙利所屬的歐洲聯盟描繪成。

As a bloc that wants to dictate what Hungary is supposed to do.

一個想要發號施令，規定匈牙利該做什麼的集團。

And as a result, in the view of the government, is the sovereignty of Hungary may be at stake.

結果，在政府看來，匈牙利的國家主權可能岌岌可危。

The tis the part is saying we need a strong eu.

Tisa 黨則表示我們需要一個強大的歐盟。

We actually have to have a vision together to be able to make crucial foreign decisions.

我們實際上必須共同擁有一個願景，才能做出關鍵的外交決策。

Just a reminder to the viewer, I'm in Hungary, just a few hundred kilometers away is a war going on in Ukraine.

提醒一下觀眾，我現在在匈牙利，距離烏克蘭的戰爭只有幾百公里。

So certainly foreign policy plays a role when people will make up their minds next year.

所以，明年大家做決定時，外交政策肯定會是個考量。

There are a lot of undecided voters, in fact, and

事實上，還有很多猶豫不決的選民，

one of the biggest questions that people propose, in fact, regardless who they support, is the economy.

大家關心的最大問題之一，不管支持哪個黨派，就是經濟。

Just how much more is going to be chipped away in their purse with regard to their income when it comes to inflation.

通膨會讓他們的荷包縮水多少？

So there's a lot at stake and however, there's still six months to go as a result.

所以，這次的賭注很大，但距離選舉還有六個月。

We just have to see how things are going to move on.

我們就只能看看事態如何發展了。

Certainly the this proposed controversial summit by US President Donald Trump, which is not taking place at least in the immediate future in Hungary, put the Hungarian government back to center stage.

美國總統川普提議的這場備受爭議的峰會，至少近期內不會在匈牙利舉行，這確實讓匈牙利政府重新成為鎂光燈的焦點。

But we just really have to see what the communication is moving forward, both by the government and by opposition parties.

但我們真的得看看政府和反對黨接下來的溝通會是什麼樣子。

DW senior international correspondent Fanny Fasharan, Budapest thank you so much for your reporting.

感謝 DW 資深國際記者 Fanny Fasharan 在布達佩斯的報導。