Name: 諾貝爾和平獎洩密引發全球熱議：我們目前瞭解到的情況 | Connecting The Dots (Nobel Peace Prize Leak Sparks Global Buzz: What We Know So far | Connecting The Dots)
Uploaded: 2025-10-24T15:09:48.000Z
Duration: 9 min 53 s

Foreign Was the Nobel Peace Prize leaked?

Did the news that Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize this year get out hours before the official announcement?

委內瑞拉反對派領袖 Maria Corina Machado 今年將獲得諾貝爾和平獎的消息，在官方宣佈前數小時就走漏了嗎？

An extremely limited number of people know in advance the name of the Nobel Laureate chosen by the five members of the Nobel Committee.

只有極少數人能事先知道，由諾貝爾委員會的五位委員選出的諾貝爾獎得主是誰。

The Nobel Committee maintains a strict 50 year secrecy rule.

諾貝爾委員會實施嚴格的 50 年保密規則。

This applies to information about nominees, nominations and selections.

這適用於被提名人、提名以及遴選的資訊。

The awards, nomination and decision process is sealed for 50 years.

獎項、提名和決策過程會密封 50 年。

This means that all information about the nominees, nominators, the reasons for nomination and the deliberations leading to the award decision is kept confidential and not publicly disclosed for 50 years from the date the prize is awarded.

這表示，關於被提名人、提名人、提名理由以及導致獎項決定的討論等所有資訊，在頒獎日期起的 50 年內都會被保密且不會公開披露。

Information about the winner is tightly controlled and limited to the small governing body of the committee and essential staff.

關於得主的消息受到嚴格控管，僅限於委員會的少數管理機構和必要工作人員。

This confidentiality helps prevent leaks, but there is reason to believe that that wasn't the case this time.

這種保密性有助於防止洩漏，但這次似乎並非如此。

There was unusual betting activity ahead of the official announcement and this has raised a lot of eyebrows.

在官方宣佈前出現了異常的投注活動，這引起了廣泛關注。

Two Norwegian newspapers, Afton Posten and Financa Visen, reported unusual and suspicious betting activity on the Poli Market platform late Thursday night, hours before Maria Corina Machado's Nobel Peace Prize win was officially announced in Oslo.

挪威的《Afton Posten》和《Financa Visen》兩家報紙報導，在委內瑞拉反對派領袖 Maria Corina Machado 的諾貝爾和平獎得主消息於奧斯陸正式宣佈前幾個小時，週四深夜在 Poli Market 平臺上出現了異常且可疑的投注活動。

According to their reports, several large bets were placed, including one user who bet about $67,820 just hours before the announcement.

根據他們的報導，下了幾筆大額賭注，其中一個用戶在宣佈前幾個小時就下了約 67,820 美元的賭注。

Three accounts focusing mostly on bets for Machado earned around $90,000 collectively.

有三個帳戶主要針對 Machado 下注，總共賺取了約 90,000 美元。

Some accounts that made the large bets appeared to have been created on the same day the bets were placed.

有些下了大額賭注的帳戶，似乎是在下注當天創建的。

This raised suspicion of insider trading or leaked information from within or close to the Nobel Committee.

這引起了人們對諾貝爾委員會內部或與其關係密切人士進行內線交易或資訊洩漏的懷疑。

It is a decentralized, blockchain based prediction market platform.

它是一個去中心化、基於區塊鏈的預測市場平臺。

It enables users to buy and sell shares related to the outcome of real world events.

它讓用戶可以買賣與現實世界事件結果相關的股份。

This could be elections, sports competitions, economic indicators or bets on which nominee would win in key categories of the Oscars or Emmy Awards or Golden Globes.

這可能包括選舉、體育競賽、經濟指標，或是猜測奧斯卡、艾美獎或金球獎等重要獎項類別的得獎者。

Initially on Poli Market, Yulia Navalnaya, the economist and widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, led the odds for winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.

一開始在 Poli Market 上，尤莉亞·納瓦爾納亞，這位經濟學家、俄羅斯反對派領袖阿列克謝·納瓦爾尼的遺孀，在 2025 年諾貝爾和平獎的賠率中領先。

Machado's odds were much lower, around 3.75% shortly after midnight Norwegian time.

午夜挪威時間過後不久，馬查多的賠率相當低，約為 3.75%。

But within less than two hours, Machado's odds surged dramatically, jumping first to around 31.5% and then to approximately 73.5%, making her the top contender.

但在不到兩個小時內，馬查多的賠率急劇飆升，先是躍升至約 31.5%，然後又達到約 73.5%，使她成為熱門人選。

This happened even though no expert or media outlet had mentioned her as being among the favourites for the prize and so there was no prior public expectation of her win.

這發生在她甚至沒有被任何專家或媒體提及為熱門人選，而且事先也沒有任何公開預期她會獲獎的情況下。

Now look at how it all unfolded On Polymarket, a mystery trader on Poli Market began piling into longshot bets on her victory.

現在看看這一切是如何發展的。在 Polymarket 上，一位 Poli Market 的神祕交易員開始大量押注她獲勝。

The buying spree from a newly created account called 6741 earned the unknown trader more than $50,000 in profit.

這個名為 6741 的新帳戶的購買熱潮，為這位不知名的交易員帶來了超過 50,000 美元的利潤。

When 6741 began buying about 12 hours before the Nobel announcement, Maria Corinna Machado's chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize were 5% based on Poly market prices.

當 6741 在諾貝爾獎宣佈前約 12 小時開始購買時，根據 Poly market 的價格，瑪麗亞·科琳娜·馬查多贏得諾貝爾和平獎的機率是 5%。

The mystery trader's purchases in a thinly traded market helped lift her chances to about 70%.

這位神祕交易員在一個交易量不大的市場中的購買行為，幫助將她的獲獎機率提升到約 70%。

Other traders rode the momentum set off by 6,741, especially after the bets drew attention on social media.

其他交易員也跟隨 6,741 帶起的這股動能，尤其是在這些投注在社群媒體上引起關注之後。

A trader known as Gay Pride placed a series of bets overnight when Machado's chances of winning hovered between 60% and 71% and earned more than $85,000.

一位名為 Gay Pride 的交易員在馬查多獲獎機率介於 60% 到 71% 之間時，徹夜下了一系列投注，並賺取了超過 85,000 美元。

After Machado won, some Poly Market users and outside observers asked if the mystery trader had been acting on non public information.

在馬查多獲獎後，一些 Poly Market 的用戶和外部觀察家質疑這位神祕交易員是否利用了未公開的資訊。

If true, it would be a serious breach of the strict secrecy surrounding the Nobel Peace Prize and could tarnish the image of one of the world's most respected honours.

如果屬實，這將嚴重違反諾貝爾和平獎嚴格的保密規則，並可能損害這項備受尊敬的全球榮譽的形象。

A trader with a new account and no prior betting history placed a $70,000 bet on Machado winning the prize and earned a $30,000 profit.

一位沒有先前投注紀錄的新帳戶交易員，對馬查多獲獎下了 7 萬美元的賭注，並賺取了 3 萬美元的利潤。

Poli Market posted on social media that it called the winner in advance.

Poly Market 在社群媒體上發文表示，他們事先就預測到了得主。

So what does the Nobel Institute and Committee think happened?

那麼，諾貝爾學院和委員會認為發生了什麼事呢？

Christian Berghaap Viken, the director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute and secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, told this to Norway's TV2 television.

挪威諾貝爾學院主任兼挪威諾貝爾委員會祕書 Christian Berghaap Viken 將此事告訴了挪威的 TV2 電視臺。

But the head of the Norwegian Nobel Committee differed.

但挪威諾貝爾委員會的主席有不同看法。

He said he did not believe Machado's name had been leaked.

他表示不相信馬查多的名字有被洩漏。

Committee Chairman Yar Ginwa Nafinaz told this to NTP news agency.

委員會主席 Yar Ginwa Nafinaz 將此事告訴了 NTP 新聞社。

I don't think there have ever been any leaks in the entire history of the prize.

我認為在整個獎項的歷史中，從來沒有發生過任何洩漏。

I can't imagine that's the case, though we assured that the Institute would nevertheless investigate the and where necessary, further tighten security.

我無法想像會是這樣，不過我們保證學院將會進行調查，並在必要時進一步加強安全。

He said espionage could make it appear as if someone on the inside deliberately leaked information that is not likely.

他說，間諜活動可能會讓人覺得是內部有人故意洩漏了不太可能發生的資訊。

Unexpected names of Nobel Peace Prize nominees occasionally appeared in the Norwegian media.

諾貝爾和平獎被提名人的意外名字偶爾會出現在挪威媒體上。

This did fuel speculation about possible leaks from within or close to the Nobel Committee.

這確實引發了關於諾貝爾委員會內部或其親近人士可能洩漏的猜測。

But these instances were sporadic and rare in recent years.

但這些情況在近年來是零星且罕見的。

The Secretary General of the Swedish Academy, Hans Eligrin, regretted the premature release of a press statement announcing the winners of the Nobel Chemistry Prize.

瑞典學院祕書長 Hans Eligrin 對於提前發布宣佈諾貝爾化學獎得主的聲明感到遺憾。

Let me say that this is of course very unfortunate.

我必須說，這當然是非常不幸的。

我們當然對發生的事深感遺憾。

There was a press release sent out for us.

For still unknown reasons, we have been very active this morning to try to find out what actually happened.

出於仍未知的原因，我們今天早上非常積極地試圖找出到底發生了什麼事。

That year, French born Moisey Bavindi, Louis Brass of the United States and Russian born Alexei Ikimov were awarded the prize for developing tiny quantum dots used to illuminate TVs and lamps.

那一年，法國出生的 Moisey Bavindi、美國的 Louis Brass 和俄羅斯出生的 Alexei Ikimov 因開發用於照亮電視和燈具的微小量子點而獲獎。

So gaps in what must be watertight processes have been exposed before.

是以，在必須滴水不漏的流程中出現的漏洞，以前就曾暴露出來。

So what concerns does a potential leak in Maria Corina Machado's case raise suspicion of espionage is one.

所以，瑪麗亞·科裡納·馬查多的案件中潛在的洩漏引發了對間諜活動的懷疑，這是一個令人擔憂的問題。

One official ruling in espionage suggests that external actors could have targeted the Nobel Institute and to obtain confidential information for financial gain or political motives.

一項關於間諜活動的官方裁決表明，外部行為者可能以諾貝爾研究所為目標，為了經濟利益或政治動機獲取機密資訊。

The incident puts the spotlight on security vulnerabilities.

It raises the prospect of the Nobel Institute being potentially vulnerable to cyber or human espionage efforts.

這讓人聯想到諾貝爾研究所可能容易遭受網路或人為間諜活動的威脅。

It puts a question mark on the Institute's ability to safeguard sensitive information from growing technological threats.

這讓人質疑研究所能否保護敏感資訊免受日益增長的科技威脅。

Financial exploitation and insider trading is another concern.

財務剝削和內線交易是另一個令人擔憂的問題。

The question remains, was insider information used for monetary gain?

問題仍然是，是否有內線消息被用於謀取金錢利益？

There are political implications too of a leak, given Machado's political background and the geopolitical interests surrounding the prize.

考量到馬查多的政治背景以及圍繞該獎項的地緣政治利益，洩漏事件也具有政治上的影響。

A leak can be exploited for diplomatic or propaganda purposes by foreign intelligence or interest groups.

外國情報機構或利益團體可能會利用洩漏事件來達到外交或宣傳目的。

And last of all, a potential leak undermines the Nobel Prize's integrity.

最後，潛在的洩漏會損害諾貝爾獎的公信力。

It threatens the confidentiality and trust in the Nobel Prize selection process and can potentially cast a shadow on the award's prestige and neutrality.

這威脅到諾貝爾獎遴選過程的保密性和信任度，並可能對獎項的聲望和中立性投下陰影。

This incident should act as a wake up call.

It calls for a thorough investigation, a transparent communication of the probe's findings to the world, to uphold public trust.

這需要進行徹底的調查，並向全世界透明地溝通調查結果，以維護公眾的信任。

It also calls for stronger security measures, strict confidentiality, awareness and training of committee members, staff and associated personnel, insecurity, best practices and implications of leaks, and

這也呼籲加強安全措施、嚴格保密、提升委員會成員、工作人員及相關人員的意識與培訓，並探討洩漏事件的不安全、最佳實務及影響。

also collaboration with Norwegian authorities and cybersecurity experts to identify and neutralize espionage threats, data, insider leaks and ensure compliance with legal standards.

同時，也要與挪威當局及網路安全專家合作，以辨識並化解間諜威脅、資料外洩、內部洩漏，並確保遵守法律標準。

A thorough investigation must now define the future of this revered institution.

徹底的調查現在必須決定這個備受尊崇的機構的未來。

That's all in this edition of Connecting the Dots.

以上是本集「Connecting the Dots」的全部內容。

We'll see you in the next episode with more aging issues.

我們下集再見，會有更多關於老化議題的討論。

Until then, it's a goodbye from all of us.

在那之前，我們就先向大家說再見了。

In the Delhi newsroom, this is Mannan Bhattacharya signing off.

在德里新聞中心，我是 Mannan Bhattacharya，在此告別。