Name: 金價不斷刷新歷史紀錄！3 張圖揭開背後關鍵原因 (Three Charts That Explain What’s Happening With Gold Prices | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2025-10-15T21:02:00.000Z
Duration: 4 min 11 s

The price of gold hit $4,000 a troy ounce for the first time, the most ever.

黃金價格首次達到每金衡盎司 4000 美元，為史上最高。

And this rally has been unusual compared to anything else we've seen at least since 1979.

而這次漲勢相較於至少自 1979 年以來的任何情況都顯得異常。

When the going gets rough, people turn to gold.

當情勢艱難時，人們會轉向黃金。

Here are three charts to help explain what's happening.

以下三張圖表可幫助解釋正在發生的事。

The first chart is the price of gold futures.

Futures prices have risen some 50% this year, which has outpaced many of the biggest crises in American history.

期貨價格今年已上漲約 50%，超越了美國歷史上一些最大危機時的漲幅。

Investors pile into gold for a couple of reason.

First and foremost, it tends to retain its value.

首先也是最重要的，它往往能保持其價值。

Then during times of inflation when the dollar could depreciate over the course of time,

在通膨時期，當美元可能隨時間貶值時，

gold can maintain some of investors value when dollars are actually becoming weaker.

黃金可以在美元實際變弱時維持投資者部分價值。

And if you look at some of those previous run-ups,

there were financial meltdowns that helped explain why investors flocked to gold.

都有金融崩潰的背景，有助於解釋為何投資者湧向黃金。

In 1979, for example, there was an inflationary shock.

例如在 1979 年，曾出現通膨衝擊。

In 2020, obviously the global pandemic really upended people's economic expectations.

到了 2020 年，全球疫情顯然顛覆了人們的經濟預期。

On the one hand we have this AI-crazed stock market that's at records.

一方面，我們有受 AI 熱潮驅動、創下紀錄的股市。

On the other hand, there's a lot of concern about policy dysfunction in Washington.

另一方面，華盛頓的政策失能引發了大量擔憂。

There's runaway deficits, there's a government shutdown,

and there's apparent lack of concern of longer for higher inflation in the US economy.

而且對於美國經濟中更高、持續更久的通膨似乎缺乏關注。

You can see this with President Trump's push for lower interest rates.

你可以從川普總統推動降息的行動中看出這一點。

So if you zoom into gold prices this year, they first ramped up in the first part of Trump's second term.

因此，如果你放大觀察今年的黃金價格，它們最初在川普第二任期的前段迅速上升。

There was a basic stagnation in the gold market.

Over the course of the summer, things settled down until August.

整個夏季期間，市場趨於穩定直到八月。

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a speech,

美聯儲主席傑洛姆·鮑威爾發表了一場演說，

essentially signaling that the central bank would begin cutting interest rates despite above target inflation.

實際上暗示中央銀行將在通膨仍高於目標的情況下開始降息。

The baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.

「基本前景與風險平衡的變化，可能使我們需要調整政策立場。」

Since then, gold prices have been off to the races.

自那之後，黃金價格便開始飆升。

That brings us to chart 2, which shows us how much central banks have added to their gold reserves.

這讓我們來到第二張圖表，顯示各國央行增加黃金儲備的情況。

Central banks since the Great Financial crisis have really snapped up gold bullion.

自全球金融危機以來，各國央行確實大量購入金條。

And they've done this in part because of a lot of doubts of the global financial system,

他們這麼做，部分原因是對全球金融體系存在大量疑慮，

which is really interwoven in many ways with the US economy, the US banks and also the US Federal Reserve.

該體系在許多方面與美國經濟、美國銀行以及美聯儲緊密交織。

So central banks around the world keep a variety of reserve assets on hand in order to shore up their financial systems.

因此，世界各地的央行持有多樣化的儲備資產，以支撐其金融體系。

For decades, the most common reserve asset has been the US dollar,

數十年來，最常見的儲備資產是美元，

which is so of the gold standard, pardon the pun, for some of these reserve assets.

美元可說是這些儲備資產中的「黃金標準」（雙關語請見諒）。

As we can see further into the chart, they're continuing to buy gold now.

如圖中後半部分所示，他們現在仍在持續購買黃金。

And many of the biggest banks on Wall Street believe that central banks will continue to buy gold next year,

而華爾街許多最大型的銀行相信，各國央行明年將繼續購金，

Our final chart looks at the performance of the US Dollar over the past year.

最後一張圖表看的是過去一年美元的表現。

And as you can see, it hasn't been very strong.

By one measure, the US dollar had its weakest first half in the last 50 years.

從一個指標來看，美元上半年表現是過去五十年中最弱的一次。

Now, it's important to start by understanding that the Trump administration in some respects wants a weaker US Dollar.

現在，要先理解的是，在某些方面，川普政府希望美元走弱。

A weaker US Dollar helps US Exporters send their products abroad.

美元走弱有助於美國出口商將產品銷往海外。

But at the same time, additional factors have been weighing down the value of the US Dollar against other currencies.

但同時，其他因素也壓低了美元對其他貨幣的價值。

First and foremost is a lack of confidence in the outlook for the US Economy.

首先也是最重要的是，市場對美國經濟前景缺乏信心。

This really proliferated around the liberation date, tariffs in April,

這種情緒在四月解除關稅時特別蔓延，

where there's a lot of uncertainty about the outlook for the US Economy and inflation.

當時市場對美國經濟與通膨前景存在大量不確定性。

And more recently, after Trump's big beautiful bill passed Congress,

更近期，在川普的大型稅改法案通過國會之後，

there's been mounting concerns about long-term deficits around the United States

市場對美國長期財政赤字的擔憂逐漸增加，

and how the US Government will finance them through debt.

以及美國政府將如何透過舉債來籌措資金。

With any boom, there's oftentimes a bust to follow that.

任何繁榮之後，往往會伴隨衰退。

In 1979, for example, a lot of the real price gains in gold evaporated within the next couple of years.

例如 1979 年，黃金價格的實際上漲，在接下來幾年內大多蒸發。

So even though we have prices in gold now going vertical,

因此，即便現在金價直線上升，

some investors are kind of tapping the brakes on this narrative.

一些投資者仍在對這個故事踩剎車。

US institutions have held up before, so if they hold up now,

美國金融機構之前也經歷過類似情況，所以如果它們現在依然穩健，

if the Fed remains independent, if inflation does come down,

如果聯準會保持獨立，如果通膨確實下降，

if US Growth is able to continue, that could be a negative downside pressure on gold prices.

如果美國經濟能夠持續增長，那麼這可能會對金價形成下行壓力。