Name: 特朗普承諾外國公司將支付.......結果是假的"：經濟學家談關稅 ('Trump's promise that foreign companies would pay. . .turned out to be false': Economist on tariffs)
Uploaded: 2025-09-01T10:12:56.000Z
Duration: 8 min 21 s

President Trump is touting what could be a financial windfall for the United States, but at whose expense?

特朗普總統正在吹噓美國可能會獲得一筆財政意外之財，但這是誰的損失？

It's based on Trump's new tariff rates for various countries.

這是根據特朗普對不同國家的新關稅稅率計算出來的。

The Congressional Budget Office updated its projections and now estimates that Trump's tariffs could reduce the U.S. deficit by a whopping $4 trillion over the next 10 years.

美國國會預算辦公室更新了其預測，現在估計特朗普的關稅措施可在未來 10 年內使美國赤字減少高達 4 萬億美元。

He's a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan.

他是密歇根大學經濟學和公共政策教授。

So first of all, what do you think are the chances that the tariffs will actually last through 2035, which the CBO is basing its estimates on?

那麼首先，您認為關稅實際持續到 2035 年的可能性有多大？

A close to no chance, and that's one of the biggest problems, which is the whole idea of tariffs is you provide incentive for people to set up shop, but the tariffs are going to change before the shop gets set up.

幾乎沒有機會，這也是最大的問題之一，關稅的整個理念就是鼓勵人們開店，但在開店之前關稅就會改變。

And as a result, I'm not sure we're going to get much action out of this.

是以，我不確定我們能從中得到什麼啟發。

So then the big question about this $4 trillion is where is this $4 trillion coming from?

那麼，關於這 4 萬億美元的最大問題是，這 4 萬億美元從何而來？

For months here in the lead, we've been talking to small business leaders about how the tariffs are affecting them.

幾個月來，我們一直在與小企業領導人討論關稅對他們的影響。

Most of them say that they are currently eating the tariffs, but eventually are going to have to pass on the cost to their consumers.

他們中的大多數人表示，目前他們正在承受關稅，但最終將不得不把成本轉嫁給消費者。

So I wonder, in this projection, who pays this $4 trillion?

是以，我想知道，在這一預測中，誰來支付這 4 萬億美元？

Yeah, Jack, I want to come back to something you said in the lead.

是的，傑克，我想回到你在開頭說過的話。

You said this windfall for the American budget.

你說這是美國預算的意外之財。

And when you charge people a tax, the government gets revenue.

向人們徵稅，政府就能獲得收入。

在這種情況下，它的工作原理是這樣的。

If Best Buy brings in a washing machine, say from Korea, that washing machine gets shipped to America and it sits in the port in customs, and it can't get out of customs until Best Buy writes a check for the tariff.

如果百思買從韓國進口一臺洗衣機，這臺洗衣機運到美國後就會被海關扣押在港口，直到百思買開出關稅支票後才能出關。

So at the first level, Best Buy, an American company, is paying the tariff.

是以，在第一個層面上，美國公司百思買要支付關稅。

But we economists like to look at it a little harder.

但我們經濟學家喜歡把問題看得更復雜一些。

Everything's connected to everything else.

So there are some other things that could happen.

是以，還有其他一些事情可能發生。

Well, Samsung could decide what they want to do is keep their market share, which means they'd have to cut the price they're selling that washing machine at.

好吧，三星可以決定他們想要做的是保持市場份額，這意味著他們必須降低洗衣機的售價。

But there's a price index called the import price index, and it measures the price of our imports.

但有一個價格指數叫進口價格指數，它衡量的是我國進口商品的價格。

What that means is that Trump's promise that foreign companies would pay this tax turned out to be false.

這意味著，特朗普關於外國公司將支付這筆稅款的承諾變成了謊言。

At the moment, Best Buy is paying the tax.

But probably what's starting to happen, what has started to happen in a few places and will happen more over the next few months, is Best Buy will discover that its costs have gone up and then it's going to jack up the price.

但可能開始發生的是，百思買會發現其成本上升了，然後就會抬高價格，這種情況已經在一些地方開始發生，並將在未來幾個月內更多地發生。

Either way, the cost is being borne by Americans right now by Best Buy and therefore by My401k, which is invested in that.

無論如何，美國人現在都要通過百思買來承擔這筆費用，是以 My401k 也要為此投資。

Later on, they'll jack up the price and it'll be American consumers.

稍後，他們會抬高價格，到時受害的將是美國消費者。

It's a tax on Americans being paid by Americans.

這是由美國人支付的美國人的稅。

Yeah, just to be clear, when I said windfall, I was saying that's what President Trump, how President Trump is describing this.

是的，我想說清楚，當我說 "意外之財 "時，我是說特朗普總統就是這麼說的，特朗普總統就是這麼描述的。

So what to do with the $4 trillion coming from the tariffs?

那麼，如何處理來自關稅的 4 萬億美元呢？

Trump once said he was considering a kind of tariff rebate check for American consumers.

特朗普曾表示，他正在考慮為美國消費者提供一種關稅退稅支票。

Here's what the Treasury Secretary said about that.

I think at a point we're going to be able to do it, but President Trump and I are laser focused on paying down the debt.

我認為我們一定能做到這一點，但特朗普總統和我都非常專注於償還債務。

I think he's exactly right, that it would be crazy for there to be a rebate check.

我覺得他說得很對，如果有回扣支票就太瘋狂了。

By the way, Jake, do you remember just a few months ago we were being told that there would be so many trillions of dollars saved by Doge, we'd all be getting rebate checks?

順便說一句，傑克，你還記得就在幾個月前，我們被告知 Doge 將節省數萬億美元，我們都將收到退稅支票嗎？

And I went all over TV having arguments with people saying, how big would the rebate check be?

我在電視上到處和人爭論，說退稅支票會有多大？

And it turns out Doge never saved anything.

而事實證明，Doge 從未保存過任何東西。

In this case, the Republicans just passed a budget.

在這種情況下，共和黨剛剛通過了一項預算。

Their budget took an already existing budget deficit and made it worse.

他們的預算將已經存在的預算赤字進一步惡化。

我們不要以萬億為組織、部門。

What this is, is basically 400 billion per year over 10 years.

這基本上就是 10 年內每年 4000 億美元。

And basically, they've already spent that.

基本上，他們已經花光了這些錢。

They've spent that giving tax cuts to rich people.

他們把錢花在了給富人減稅上。

It means overall, what we've done is we've swapped one set of taxes for another.

這意味著，總體而言，我們所做的是將一套稅收換成另一套稅收。

It used to be we had high income taxes on rich people.

過去，我們對富人徵收高額所得稅。

And to fill the budget hole, we're now putting tariffs on.

為了填補預算漏洞，我們現在又要加徵關稅。

And so that means we've shifted taxes from the rich to the working and middle class because all of us buy imported stuff and therefore all of us are paying these tariffs.

是以，這意味著我們將稅收從富人手中轉移到了工薪階層和中產階級手中，因為我們所有人都購買進口商品，是以我們所有人都要支付這些關稅。

Fontana Forney USA is a business that imports high end outdoor pizza ovens directly from the family owned manufacturer in Italy.

美國 Fontana Forney 公司是一家直接從意大利家族製造商那裡進口高端戶外比薩烤爐的企業。

The U.S. distributor works in close collaboration with the Fontana family to bring their designs exclusively to North America and CEO Jeremy Landy joins me now.

美國分銷商與豐塔納家族緊密合作，將他們的設計獨家帶到北美，首席執行官傑里米-蘭迪（Jeremy Landy）現在加入我的行列。

So your business relies on an imported product that you can only get from Italy.

是以，您的業務依賴於只能從意大利進口的產品。

How have the tariffs changed things for you?

The tariffs have impacted us in a couple of different ways.

關稅對我們產生了幾種不同的影響。

The first one is just being able to figure out how to navigate them.

What most people don't understand is there's actually two tariffs on our products.

大多數人不瞭解的是，我們的產品實際上有兩種關稅。

The first one is just the standard 15 percent EU tariff.

第一項只是歐盟 15% 的標準關稅。

But then we have a second tariff, which is the steel tariff, which is 50 percent of the cost of the steel.

但我們還有第二個關稅，即鋼鐵關稅，是鋼鐵成本的 50%。

So to give some perspective, in June, I had two ocean containers come in and they were taxed at over 80 percent.

是以，從某種角度來看，6 月份，我有兩個海運貨櫃進來，它們的稅率超過 80%。

And so we paid our 80 percent tariff on on these ocean containers that came in and later found out that that isn't exactly what the situation is.

是以，我們為這些海運貨櫃支付了 80% 的關稅，但後來發現情況並非如此。

Working with our customs brokers, they're not even exactly sure what the procedures are.

與我們的報關行合作，他們甚至都不太清楚程序是什麼。

So not only does it tie up cash, it's just it's hard to plan.

是以，這不僅會佔用現金，而且很難計劃。

And it constantly has us rethinking inventory levels.

這讓我們不斷重新考慮庫存水準。

So it looks as if because the landscape is only always changing that we're not going to have an 80 percent tariff at this point in time.

這樣看來，由於形勢一直在變化，我們目前還無法實現 80% 的關稅。

But honestly, we're not exactly sure where it's going to land.

但老實說，我們還不太確定它的落腳點。

But yeah, we've we've had to raise prices.

但是，是的，我們不得不提高價格。

August 1st was our first price increase in in years.

8 月 1 日是我們多年來首次提價。

And it's something that we absolutely don't take lightly.

We absorb the cost for as long as we could.

我們儘可能長時間地承擔費用。

And we've even absorbed some of the cost to not pass it all on to the customer.

我們甚至還承擔了部分成本，以免全部轉嫁給客戶。

But August 1st, we did have a 10 percent increase in prices.

但 8 月 1 日，我們的價格確實上漲了 10%。

So hopefully we don't have to have another one.

所以，希望我們不必再有一次。

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特朗普承諾外國公司將支付.......結果是假的"：經濟學家談關稅 ('Trump's promise that foreign companies would pay. . .turned out to be false': Economist on tariffs)

perspective

basically

revenue

rid