Name: 美國在以伊衝突中的選擇是什麼？| DW新聞 (What are the US' options in the Israel-Iran conflict? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-06-17T15:51:04.000Z
Duration: 6 min 39 s

President Donald Trump has arrived back in the U.S. after cutting short his visit to the G7 summit in Canada.

美國總統唐納德-特朗普在結束了對加拿大七國集團峰會的訪問後已返回美國。

The White House has attributed his early departure to the situation in the Middle East.

白宮將他的提前離任歸咎於中東局勢。

Trump arrived back in Washington on board Air Force One after earlier urging Iranians to immediately evacuate Tehran.

在早些時候敦促伊朗人立即撤離德黑蘭之後，特朗普乘坐空軍一號返回華盛頓。

That was in a post on his Truth Social platform.

這是他在 "真理社交 "平臺上發表的一篇文章。

Israel and Iran have been launching airstrikes on each other's territory for five days now.

以色列和伊朗已經連續五天對對方領土發動空襲。

Before Trump's departure, the G7 leaders issued a joint statement backing Israel's claim of self-defense and opposing a nuclear-armed Iran, which they called the principal source of instability and terror.

在特朗普離開之前，七國集團領導人發表了一份聯合聲明，支持以色列的自衛主張，反對擁有核武器的伊朗，稱伊朗是不穩定和恐怖的主要根源。

Now on the return flight to Washington, reporters asked Trump about what would be better than a ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Iran.

現在，在返回華盛頓的飛機上，記者們問特朗普，在以色列和伊朗的衝突中，有什麼比停火更好的辦法。

Catherine Kluver-Ashbrook is a political analyst and a senior advisor at the Bertelsmann Foundation think tank here in Berlin.

凱瑟琳-克魯弗-阿什布魯克（Catherine Kluver-Ashbrook）是一位政治分析家，也是柏林貝塔斯曼基金會智庫的高級顧問。

We just heard there from Trump, who's now back at the White House after the G7 summit.

我們剛剛聽到特朗普的發言，他在七國集團峰會結束後回到了白宮。

What do you see his options as being now in terms of the conflict between Iran and Israel?

在伊朗和以色列的衝突問題上，您認為他現在有哪些選擇？

Well, I think there are a lot of moving pieces for American diplomacy.

我認為，美國的外交活動千頭萬緒。

If you take the president at his original first word, he really does still want to pursue a diplomatic solution.

如果按照總統最初的說法，他確實仍然希望尋求外交解決方案。

And that's why Steve Whitkoff is still preparing conversations with the top Iranian leadership on steps ahead that might actually lead not only to a ceasefire, factually, but something that actually takes the Iranian nuclear program off the table.

正因如此，史蒂夫-惠特科夫仍在準備與伊朗高層領導對話，商討未來可能採取的措施，這些措施不僅能實現停火，還能讓伊朗核計劃真正從談判桌上消失。

But in the clip that you just heard, it's the American president playing with the idea of deploying B-2 bombers in the support of Israel.

但在你們剛剛聽到的片段中，美國總統正在討論部署 B-2 轟炸機支持以色列的想法。

That would be the only structure, by the way, that would allow the bunker buster bombers to get into the depth of the Ford nuclear facility that can actually end, if you will, the Iranian nuclear posture, certainly the weaponization of uranium such that you would end up with a nuclear bomb.

順便說一句，這將是唯一能讓掩體轟炸機進入福特核設施深處的結構，如果你願意的話，它能真正結束伊朗的核態勢，當然是鈾的武器化，這樣你就能最終得到一枚核彈。

And so I think those are the options that the American side is considering.

是以，我認為這些都是美方正在考慮的選項。

The latter part would then, of course, increase the fissures across the Middle East.

當然，後者會加劇整個中東地區的分裂。

You saw the comments by major Arab countries in the region that the Trump administration has been also been working with on a different sort of set of negotiated agreements.

你也看到了該地區主要阿拉伯國家的評論，特朗普政府也一直在與這些國家就一系列不同的談判協議進行合作。

So it's a difficult situation for the Americans right now, with the Netanyahu government having taken the position as quickly as it did.

是以，內塔尼亞胡政府如此迅速地採取了這一立場，美國人現在的處境很困難。

The Americans really need to weigh their options very carefully.

美國人確實需要仔細權衡他們的選擇。

And right now, you don't get a very clear line out of the White House.

而現在，白宮的態度並不明確。

President seems to be changing his mind every couple of hours.

總統似乎每隔幾個小時就會改變主意。

As you say, so many moving pieces, really a difficult situation.

正如你所說的，有這麼多變動因素，確實是個棘手的問題。

Can I ask what you think he's most likely to do?

請問您認為他最有可能做什麼？

Well, the bigger problem in the United States context right now is that there is not a depth of experience in the White House in the way that you had in previous administrations.

目前，美國更大的問題是，白宮的經驗不如前幾屆政府豐富。

And that's both true of Republican and Democratic administrations.

共和黨和民主黨政府都是如此。

You see Steve Whitkoff leading negotiations with the difficult conflict parties, both on Ukraine and the Ukraine and the Russia question, but also here on the Democratic lead.

你會看到史蒂夫-惠特科夫（Steve Whitkoff）上司著與衝突各方的艱難談判，既涉及烏克蘭、烏克蘭和俄羅斯問題，也涉及民主黨的主導權問題。

And he comes with not a lot of regional experience in the kind of ways of putting diplomacy first.

而且，他在將外交放在首位方面的地區經驗並不豐富。

Based on what we can puzzle together coming from the White House, the idea is that you would sort of pursue a double track approach where you keep the pursuit of a military threat in sort of your back corner, in the back deck of your playing cards, but that you push first for the Iranians to come to the table, see what they might have on offer.

根據我們從白宮方面得到的資訊，我們的想法是，你們會採取一種雙軌制，即在你們的后角、在你們的底牌中保持對軍事威脅的追求，但你們會首先推動伊朗人坐到談判桌前，看看他們能提供什麼。

The Iranians, of course, are in a very difficult situation.

當然，伊朗人的處境非常艱難。

And to be fair, the president is getting a lot of pressure at home as well because he promised to his electorate and a number of the MAGA key supporters that he has that he wouldn't engage in something like regime change.

平心而論，總統在國內也受到了很大的壓力，因為他向選民和一些MAGA的主要支持者承諾，他不會參與類似政權更迭的行動。

And the question right now is, is it just dismantling the Iranian nuclear bomb production capacity, or is in fact regime change in the offing?

現在的問題是，這僅僅是在摧毀伊朗的核彈生產能力，還是事實上正在發生政權更迭？

And that would mean long-term engagement by the Americans in the administration expressly didn't want to be doing.

這就意味著美國人要長期參與政府的工作，而這顯然是他們不願意做的。

We are getting reports, though, that the US aircraft carrier Nimitz is heading to the Middle East.

不過，我們得到報告說，美國的尼米茲號航空母艦正在駛往中東。

We're hearing the US military has moved a large number of refueling aircraft to Europe.

我們聽說美國軍方已將大量加油機調往歐洲。

So what do you think the US administration might be preparing for here?

那麼，您認為美國政府可能會在這裡做什麼準備？

Well, if you believe the American defence secretary, it is merely to create options and insulate those options and to put American troops into a preparedness situation.

好吧，如果你相信美國國防部長的話，這只不過是為了創造選擇和隔離這些選擇，並讓美國軍隊進入備戰狀態。

Now, you've also heard the president threaten the Iranian leadership that should they conversely act from their perspective against American troops, that things would get a lot worse for the Iranians.

現在，你也聽到總統威脅伊朗領導人說，如果他們反過來從他們的角度出發反對美軍，伊朗人的處境會變得更糟。

So it seems to be indicating that you have, you know, best case scenario, an idea that is diplomacy backed by force.

是以，這似乎表明，你有，你知道的，最好的情況，一個以武力為後盾的外交想法。

So a force presence that reinforces the idea that Americans would get engaged if they needed to, if they felt that diplomacy couldn't take the lead.

是以，一支部隊的存在強化了這樣一種想法，即如果美國人認為外交無法發揮主導作用，他們會在必要時參與進來。

That would be a pretty sanguine strategy by the Trump administration at this point.

在這一點上，特朗普政府的戰略是相當樂觀的。

It doesn't seem, in fact, that they were fully dealt in on the cards by the Israelis.

事實上，他們似乎並沒有被以色列人完全算計在內。

Now, we're also hearing from the Israeli ambassador to the United States that there are, quote-unquote, surprises to come Thursday and Friday.

現在，我們還從以色列駐美國大使那裡聽說，週四和週五還會有驚喜。

That raises, I think, the specter of concern for those heads of state that are still sitting at the G7 meeting, because then that makes the prospect of a wider Middle East war even greater.

我認為，這讓那些仍在參加七國集團會議的國家首腦感到擔憂，因為這樣一來，中東爆發更大規模戰爭的可能性就更大了。

And again, something that would necessitate engagement by the Americans for a longer time to come.

同樣，美國人也有必要在未來更長的時間裡參與其中。

And that seems to go against the entire principle that the Asia-Pacific should be the American focus for this administration.

這似乎違背了本屆政府應將亞太地區作為美國關注重點的整個原則。

Catherine Fleuve Ashbrook from the Bertelsmann Foundation think tank.

凱瑟琳-弗勒夫-阿什布魯克（Catherine Fleuve Ashbrook），來自貝塔斯曼基金會智庫。

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