Name: 穆迪首席經濟學家稱，儘管關稅暫停了 90 天，但 "前景仍不明朗 ('The coast is still not clear' despite 90-day tariff pause, says Moody's chief economist)
Uploaded: 2025-06-17T15:20:29.000Z
Duration: 9 min 45 s

程度副詞

Do you believe the Treasury Secretary, when he says this was always the plan, to pause tariffs after using them as leverage, or do you think they're just winging it?

當財政部長說這是他的一貫計劃，即在使用關稅作為籌碼後暫停關稅時，你相信他的話嗎？

我的意思是，這是非常被動的。

But, you know, to some degree, thank goodness.

但是，你知道，在某種程度上，謝天謝地。

I mean, the stock market, when I got up this morning, I took a look.

我是說，今早起床後，我看了看股市。

We were in bear market territory, you know, down more than 20 percent from the previous peak, and it felt like there was going to be a lot of red today.

我們正處於低迷的市場區域，你知道，與之前的峰值相比，跌幅超過 20%，感覺今天會有很多紅盤。

And the bond market, you know, that's really something.

而債券市場，你知道，那真的很了不起。

Bond yields are rising, which is really a sign that perhaps global investors are losing faith in the safe haven status of the United States, which is a very big deal.

債券收益率正在上升，這實際上表明全球投資者或許正在失去對美國避風港地位的信心，這是一個非常大的問題。

So they reacted to that, and that's good news.

是以，他們對此做出了反應，這是個好消息。

But the bad news is we're still here with the tariffs.

但壞消息是，關稅問題依然存在。

I mean, you pointed out the Chinese tariffs, 125 percent, even taking away the so-called reciprocal tariffs.

我的意思是，你指出了中國的關稅，125%，甚至取消了所謂的對等關稅。

The overall effective tariff rate today, right now, is the same as it was at the beginning of the day, about 20, 25 percent.

現在，總體有效關稅率與剛開始時相同，約為 20%、25%。

So I don't think the coast is at all clear here.

所以，我不認為這裡的情況已經明朗。

I mean, these 125 percent tariffs are still pretty huge.

我的意思是，這 125% 的關稅還是相當高的。

And I mean, Americans buy clothes made in China, sneakers made in China, phones made in China, laptops made in China, trinkets, housewares, et cetera, et cetera.

我的意思是，美國人購買中國製造的衣服、中國製造的運動鞋、中國製造的手機、中國製造的筆記本電腦、小飾品、家庭用品，等等等等。

And those those expenses, the tariff, that's going to be passed on to the consumer, right?

這些費用、關稅會轉嫁到消費者身上，對嗎？

Yeah, I mean, it's 600 billion dollars in trade between the two countries.

是的，我是說，兩國之間的貿易額高達 6000 億美元。

The only other the only other place that we trade more with is European Union.

唯一與我們貿易往來較多的國家是歐盟。

And of course, that's a bunch of a bunch of countries.

So this is this is a big deal in 125 percent.

That's more than doubling the price on everything that you just mentioned.

你剛才提到的所有東西的價格都翻了一番還多。

And that means that the global trade between these two countries could come to a complete standstill or virtually so.

這意味著這兩個國家之間的全球貿易可能完全停滯或幾乎停滯。

And the impact of that on the US economy, on the Chinese economy will be devastating.

這對美國經濟和中國經濟的影響將是毀滅性的。

So even though that the reciprocal tariffs are down, at least for the time being, for 90 days, we'll see how this goes.

是以，儘管互惠關稅已經下降，但至少在 90 天內，我們將拭目以待。

You know, we're still left with very high tariffs.

要知道，我們仍然面臨著非常高的關稅。

It's still going to be a very large if what's currently being proposed is actually implemented.

如果目前提出的建議能夠真正實施，那麼它仍將是一個非常大的項目。

It's still going to be a massive tax increase on American consumers and businesses.

這仍將是對美國消費者和企業的一次大規模增稅。

And I don't think, you know, what we saw today in the stock market is the end of the story.

我不認為，我們今天看到的股市情況就是故事的結局。

There's there's a lot more red to be had here.

The chief economist, a consulting firm, RSM, said today, quote, My sense here is that the US economy is still likely to fall into recession.

諮詢公司 RSM 的首席經濟學家今天說："我的感覺是，美國經濟仍有可能陷入衰退。

Given the levels, the level of simultaneous shocks that it's absorbed.

鑑於其吸收的同時衝擊的水準。

All this does is postpone temporarily what will likely be a series of punitive import taxes put on US trade allies.

這只是暫時延後了可能對美國貿易盟友徵收的一系列懲罰性進口稅。

I mean, I guess Jamie Dimon said something similar that he still thinks the likelihood is that there will be a recession caused by all of this.

我的意思是，我猜傑米-戴蒙也說過類似的話，他仍然認為這一切很可能會導致經濟衰退。

Yeah, I think recession is more likely than not.

是的，我認為經濟衰退的可能性更大。

I mean, you know, even the delay just creates another problem.

我的意思是，你知道，即使延遲也會造成另一個問題。

That's just the you said, where's my, you know, my neck brace?

這就是你說的，我的，你知道，我的護頸呢？

I mean, it just creates a lot of uncertainty, you know, up on again, off again.

我的意思是，這隻會帶來很多不確定性，你知道的，時好時壞。

That serves as its own tax on the economy because businesses freeze.

這本身就是對經濟的徵稅，因為企業凍結了。

Federal Reserve doesn't know what to do with that, so they can't respond to what's going on.

美聯儲不知道該如何處理，是以無法對發生的事情做出反應。

Consumers, you know, are very nervous about it.

So, you know, even though we might get the reciprocal tariffs right now and maybe we'll never get them, the uncertainty that this creates, I think, puts a miasma over the economy.

是以，你知道，儘管我們現在可能會得到對等關稅，也可能永遠不會得到，但我認為，這造成的不確定性給經濟蒙上了一層陰霾。

Is President Trump's tariff pause too little too late for the US economy?

特朗普總統暫停徵收關稅對美國經濟來說是否為時已晚？

And does it signify any sense of predictability or stability?

它是否意味著任何可預測性或穩定性？

Even though almost all the tariffs that took effect at midnight are now paused for 90 days, except China, which will see tariffs increased to at least 125 percent.

儘管午夜生效的幾乎所有關稅現在都暫停了 90 天，但中國除外，因為中國的關稅將增加到至少 125%。

Goldman Sachs says this pause does not change their forecast, which stands at a 45 percent chance of recession.

高盛表示，這次暫停不會改變他們的預測，即經濟衰退的可能性為 45%。

Trump's tariff pause this afternoon sent markets back up.

今天下午，特朗普暫停加徵關稅，令市場回升。

They're in the green now after days of plunging in the red.

在連續多日下跌後，它們現在又恢復了綠色。

The reason for all the recent volatility and confusion, all that money lost from 401Ks and pensions, was because of President Trump's haphazard mixed messaging.

最近所有的波動和混亂，所有從 401K 和養老金中損失的錢，其原因都是特朗普總統胡亂發出的混合資訊。

One week ago today, it seemed the Oprah giveaway approach to tariffs.

一週前的今天，似乎是奧普拉贈送關稅的辦法。

Every country knew they were probably getting something.

每個國家都知道他們可能會得到一些東西。

They just didn't know exactly what, until the world saw the Trump tariff chart, which incidentally, according to conservative economists, was calculated incorrectly, though the Trump team denies that.

他們只是不知道具體是什麼，直到全世界都看到了特朗普的關稅表，順便說一句，根據保守派經濟學家的說法，關稅表的計算是錯誤的，儘管特朗普團隊否認了這一點。

All the while, Trump officials were insisting these tariffs were not negotiating a tactic.

與此同時，特朗普官員卻堅稱這些關稅並非談判策略。

I don't think there's any chance that President Trump's going to back off his tariffs.

我不認為特朗普總統會放棄關稅。

Will the president reassess his approach?

No, the president is firm in his approach, and the president is ensuring economic stability here in the United States of America.

不，總統的態度是堅定的，總統正在確保美利堅合眾國的經濟穩定。

Would you be open to a pause in tariffs to allow for negotiations?

您是否願意暫停關稅，以便進行談判？

He's not considering an extension or a delay.

He expects that these tariffs are going to go into effect.

They did technically go into effect for all of 13 hours.

從技術上講，它們確實生效了 13 個小時。

But then Trump said the bond market's very tricky.

但特朗普隨後表示，債券市場非常棘手。

But last night, people were getting a little queasy.

And now, according to his administration officials, this tariff pause is the plan the whole time.

而現在，據他的政府官員稱，暫停關稅是整個計劃的一部分。

This was driven by the president's strategy.

He and I had a long talk on Sunday, and this was his strategy all along.

他和我在週日進行了一次長談，這就是他一直以來的策略。

His strategy all along, CNN's Jeff Zeleny at the White House and Jeff, you just spoke with the president after he made this announcement.

CNN記者傑夫-澤萊尼（Jeff Zeleny）正在白宮，傑夫，你剛剛在總統宣佈這一消息後採訪了他。

And you asked him about his change of plans.

Well, Jake, the president is taking credit for what he calls historic gains in the stock market, never mind the fact that they were made after the historic losses that his policy caused.

好吧，傑克，總統正在為他所謂的股市歷史性上漲邀功，別忘了這些上漲是在他的政策造成歷史性損失之後取得的。

Throughout the day here, I can tell you this felt like the first Trump administration where administration officials and advisers and aides were scrambling to keep up with the about face decision making that was underway.

在這裡的一整天，我可以告訴你，這感覺就像特朗普政府的第一次執政，政府官員、顧問和助手們爭先恐後地跟上正在進行的面對面決策。

But we did ask the president what led to all of this confusion.

但我們確實問過總統，是什麼導致了這一切混亂。

You walk us through your thinking about why you decided to put a 90 day pause.

您帶我們瞭解了您決定暫停 90 天的原因。

Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line.

They were getting yippy, you know, getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid, said that these tariffs would go in effect on Monday.

他們開始嚷嚷，你知道，開始有點嚷嚷，有點害怕，說這些關稅將在週一生效。

So how can people believe your words today?

那麼，今天人們怎麼能相信你的話呢？

I could say here's a wall and I'm going to go through that wall.

我可以說，這裡有一堵牆，我要穿過那堵牆。

I'm going to go through it no matter what.

Sometimes you have to be able to go under the wall, around the wall or over the wall.

有時，你必須能夠從牆下、繞過牆或翻過牆。

So talking about credibility there, that was the question, how can anyone believe the president's words from foreign leaders to business leaders going forward?

是以，說到可信度，這就是問題所在，從外國領導人到商界領袖，怎麼會有人相信總統的話呢？

If he changes course and he brushes it off as flexibility.

如果他改弦易轍，並將其視為靈活性。

And just moments ago in the Oval Office, he was signing a series of executive orders and effectively taking somewhat of a victory lap after this really tumultuous week here.

就在剛才，他在橢圓形辦公室裡簽署了一系列行政命令，在經歷了這動盪的一週之後，他實際上是在進行勝利大巡遊。

And the question is at this at this hour, Jake, was all of this worth it?

現在的問題是，傑克，這一切值得嗎？

Was it worth the trillions of dollars in losses?