Name: 特朗普的關稅會引發經濟衰退嗎？四位首席經濟學家的看法 | 華爾街日報 (Will Trump’s Tariffs Spur Recession? Four Chief Economists Weigh In | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2025-04-29T02:46:48.000Z
Duration: 6 min

This chart measures the amount of uncertainty over America's economic policies.

該圖表衡量了美國經濟政策的不確定性程度。

And as you can see, there's currently a lot.

正如你所看到的，目前有很多。

關係子句

That's largely because of President Trump's on-again, off-again tariff agenda, which has rattled financial markets and stoked fears of Possible recession A recession A recession A recession is a loss of faith.

這在很大程度上是因為特朗普總統時好時壞的關稅議程，令金融市場惶恐不安，並激起了對可能出現的經濟衰退的擔憂。

There's nothing worse for the economy than inactivity.

對經濟而言，沒有什麼比無所作為更糟糕的了。

And that is what we're the most worried about.

We asked four chief economists from JPMorgan, Moody's, KPMG, and the Economist Intelligence Unit to lay out their forecast for a potential recession, increased inflation, and the Federal Reserve's path forward.

我們請摩根大通（JPMorgan）、穆迪（Moody's）、畢馬威（KPMG）和經濟學人智庫（Economist Intelligence Unit）的四位首席經濟學家闡述他們對潛在經濟衰退、通脹加劇以及美聯儲未來發展道路的預測。

Recession odds are a quick way for economists to kind of communicate their thinking about the state of the world and where it's headed in the near term, particularly when you're around periods like the current one.

對於經濟學家來說，衰退機率是一種快速傳達他們對世界現狀和近期走向的看法的方式，尤其是在像當前這樣的時期。

The Wall Street Journal surveyed 64 economists in early April, right before Trump paused his Liberation Day reciprocal tariff policies.

4 月初，就在特朗普暫停解放日互惠關稅政策之前，《華爾街日報》對 64 位經濟學家進行了調查。

The survey found that the probability of a recession had climbed to 45% over the next 12 months, still lower than the 60% expected in the years prior.

調查發現，未來 12 個月出現經濟衰退的可能性攀升至 45%，仍低於前幾年預期的 60%。

In those instances, no recession ever materialized.

在這些情況下，經濟從未出現衰退。

KPMG's Diane Swonk put her own odds around 60% for a recession this year.

畢馬威會計師事務所的黛安-斯旺克（Diane Swonk）認為，她自己認為今年經濟衰退的概率約為 60%。

We could have a much more severe recession than we're currently forecasting.

我們可能會遇到比目前預測嚴重得多的經濟衰退。

A recession is marked when there are two quarters of negative gross domestic product.

當兩個季度的國內生產總值出現負值時，就標誌著經濟衰退。

Technically, recessions are declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

從技術上講，經濟衰退是由美國國家經濟研究局宣佈的。

It considers an array of economic indicators, like employment, spending, and industrial production.

它考慮了一系列經濟指標，如就業、支出和工業生產。

Trump has pledged his tariff policies will help bring manufacturing back to the U.S., although he has dialed back some of his trade stances amid the market turmoil.

特朗普曾承諾，他的關稅政策將有助於製造業迴歸美國，儘管在市場動盪的情況下，他已經收回了一些貿易立場。

We get along, I get along very well with the presidency, and I hope we can make a deal.

我們相處得很好，我和總統相處得很好，我希望我們能達成協議。

JPMorgan raised its probability of a recession from 40% to 60% in the wake of Trump's early April tariffs.

在特朗普 4 月初征收關稅後，摩根大通將經濟衰退的可能性從 40% 提高到 60%。

The increase in policy uncertainty is likely freezing a lot of capital spending plans.

政策不確定性的增加可能會凍結許多資本支出計劃。

I think it's very hard for companies, particularly globally oriented companies, to plan.

我認為公司，尤其是面向全球的公司，很難制定計劃。

You know, I would never want to say 100% probability, but I think we're close to 80% probability.

你知道，我永遠不想說 100% 的可能性，但我認為我們接近 80% 的可能性。

The policy strategy seems to be to create uncertainty and chaos.

政策策略似乎是製造不確定性和混亂。

I would put the odds of a recession starting at some point, you know, in the next year or so at about 60%, very high.

我認為，在未來一年左右的某個時間點，經濟衰退開始的機率約為 60%，非常高。

Once the tariffs are actually implemented and are passed through, and they will be, that's when, you know, we're going to see a lot more damage.

一旦關稅真正實施並通過，我們就會看到更多的損害。

As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees it, tariffs could lead to at least a temporary, but potentially persistent, rise in prices.

在美聯儲主席傑羅姆-鮑威爾看來，關稅至少會導致價格暫時上漲，但也有可能導致價格持續上漲。

Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices, and ultimately on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

要避免出現這種結果，將取決於影響的大小，取決於這些影響需要多長時間才能完全傳導到價格上，並最終取決於能否保持較長期的通脹預期。

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, known as the Core PCE Index, was 2.8% higher year over year in February.

美聯儲首選的通脹指標，即核心 PCE 指數，2 月份同比增長 2.8%。

That's a steady retreat from recent peaks in 2022, but still remains above its 2% target.

這與 2022 年的近期峰值相比穩步回落，但仍高於 2% 的目標。

We look for some of that improvement to be undone here.

我們認為，這種進步在這裡會被打回原形。

And we think by year end, we'll be looking at that same metric, but something closer to 4%.

我們認為，到年底，我們將看到同樣的指標，但更接近 4%。

Our inflation forecast, that peaks a little over 4%, which is not horrific, but is a big difference from where we're at.

我們的通脹預測峰值略高於 4%，這並不可怕，但與我們目前的情況相差甚遠。

If this affects something like seatbelts, right, and you've produced the whole car, but you don't have the seatbelt, that car isn't going onto the lot.

如果這影響到安全帶之類的東西，對吧，而你已經生產了整輛車，但你沒有安全帶，那輛車就不能上路。

So you're going to see massive shortages.

是以，你會看到大規模的短缺。

We could see a month or two where inflation really spikes up.

我們可能會看到一兩個月內通脹真正飆升。

That reduction of demand will then lessen the inflation impacts.

需求的減少將減輕通貨膨脹的影響。

Now you've got prices rising more quickly, inflation rising, wages rising, and you get into this kind of self-reinforcing so-called wage price spiral.

現在，物價上漲更快，通脹上升，工資上漲，你就會陷入這種自我強化的所謂工資價格螺旋。

And that's what the Federal Reserve and other central banks are deathly afraid of, because that's the basis for so-called stagflation scenarios.

而這正是美聯儲和其他央行所懼怕的，因為這是所謂滯脹情景的基礎。

It's a term that's broadly defined as sluggish economic growth accompanied by higher prices and unemployment.

這個詞的廣義定義是，經濟增長乏力，伴隨著物價上漲和失業率上升。

It's commonly associated with the 1970s in the U.S., when gas prices rose and the unemployment rate reached 9%.

人們通常會聯想到 20 世紀 70 年代的美國，當時天然氣價格上漲，失業率高達 9%。

And that is why stagflation is a problem for the central bank.

這就是滯脹成為中央銀行難題的原因。

It has a dual mandate to keep both inflation and unemployment low.

它有雙重任務，即保持低通脹和低失業率。

Unemployment is likely to go up as the economy slows, in all likelihood, and inflation is likely to go up as tariffs find their way.

隨著經濟放緩，失業率很可能會上升，而隨著關稅的出臺，通貨膨脹率也可能會上升。

And some part of those tariffs come to be paid by the public.

而這些關稅的一部分要由公眾來支付。

If you were to cut and we saw more inflation, you could literally stoke a more pernicious bout of stagflation and you're better heading it off and keeping things a little cooler, even though it's painful.

如果你削減開支，而我們又看到了更多的通脹，那你就真的可能會引發更嚴重的滯脹，你最好阻止它，讓事情保持冷靜，儘管這很痛苦。

We've been saying that the Fed is going to be fashionably late.

我們一直在說，美聯儲將姍姍來遲。

We think that they are going to risk having slightly softer growth or a slightly softer employment picture because they don't want expectations of prices to become unanchored.

我們認為，他們會冒著經濟增長略微放緩或就業形勢略微放緩的風險，因為他們不希望價格預期變得不穩定。

Trump has shown signs of de-escalating some of his tariff policies, including the 145% tariff he imposed on Chinese goods. 145% is very high and it won't be that high.

特朗普已顯示出降低部分關稅政策的跡象，包括對中國商品徵收 145% 的關稅。145% 非常高，而且不會那麼高。

Best case, the president takes an off-ramp here on the trade war.

最好的情況是，總統在貿易戰問題上走下坡路。

The worst case scenario is he follows through on this and then other countries say, oh, this isn't going away, these tariffs are going to remain in place.

最壞的情況是，他繼續這樣做，然後其他國家說，哦，這不會消失，這些關稅將繼續存在。

In order for us to pull back our recession forecast, we would need not only a pullback in the level of tariffs, but an increase in the certainty of the trajectory and pathway going forward.

為了使我們能夠撤回對經濟衰退的預測，我們不僅需要降低關稅水準，還需要提高前進軌跡和路徑的確定性。

Without trust, you can't do transactions.

We'd also want to see some shoring up of what is the U.S. now going to decide their role is in the global economy.

我們還希望看到美國現在決定在全球經濟中扮演什麼角色。