Name: 特朗普關稅正在攻擊美國貿易赤字--它需要修復嗎？| 華爾街日報 (Trump Tariffs Are Attacking the U.S. Trade Deficit—Does It Need Fixing? | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2025-04-22T03:37:58.000Z
Duration: 5 min 56 s

President Donald Trump thinks the U.S. trade deficit is the policy of unilateral economic surrender. and that his latest tariff policy will fix it.

唐納德-特朗普總統認為美國的貿易赤字是單方面經濟投降的政策所致。

分詞構句

For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike.

數十年來，我們的國家遭到了遠近敵友國家的搶劫、掠奪、強姦和掠奪。

自上世紀 70 年代以來，我們每年都舉辦一次。

Here's how the trade deficit works, why economists say it can be good or bad, and how tariffs affect it.

以下是貿易逆差的原理，經濟學家為何認為貿易逆差可好可壞，以及關稅對貿易逆差的影響。

Trade with foreign countries is, well, it's complicated.

For one, with some countries, like Madagascar, we want more of their vanilla beans, which we don't really grow, than they could ever want in stuff from us.

首先，對於一些國家，比如馬拉加西，我們想要的香草豆比他們從我們這裡要的東西還要多，而我們並不真正種植香草豆。

There's one with the Netherlands, too, but just because that's where Europe's largest port is, not because the Dutch are using 11 billion in medical equipment each year.

荷蘭也有一個，但只是因為那裡是歐洲最大的港口，而不是因為荷蘭人每年使用 110 億美元的醫療設備。

There's lots of movement in this global economy.

A single item could have its parts imported and exported a dozen times.

一件商品的零部件可以進出口十幾次。

So economists say it's best not to look at country-by-country bilateral trade, but overall total trade when talking about the trade deficit.

是以，經濟學家們說，在談論貿易赤字時，最好不要看逐個國家的雙邊貿易，而是要看總體貿易總額。

So here's how much we imported last year, and here's how much we exported.

這是我們去年的進口額，這是我們的出口額。

This difference here is our trade deficit.

這裡的差額就是我們的貿易赤字。

And we've been importing more than we've been exporting for a long time.

長期以來，我們的進口一直多於出口。

And these overall numbers include two types of trade, goods and services.

這些總體數字包括貨物和服務兩類貿易。

Services are things like tourism and consulting, people-based trade.

服務業是指旅遊業和諮詢業等以人為本的貿易。

And we actually have run a surplus for a long time, exporting more than we're importing, when it comes to services.

在服務業方面，我們實際上長期保持順差，出口多於進口。

But when President Trump talks about... ...chronic trade deficits... ...he's talking about the goods deficit, physical things like... ...computers, phones, televisions, and electronics.

This is where we've really run a deficit for a long time.

這是我們長期以來真正的赤字所在。

And it's why our overall trade does, too.

這也是為什麼我們的整體貿易也是如此。

在這裡，它又以線條的形式出現了。

We've had one even in good economic times.

即使在經濟形勢好的時候，我們也有過一次。

Growth is generating wealth, so we're spending more.

增長正在創造財富，是以我們的支出也在增加。

More than can be satisfied solely with domestic things.

So we import more, adding to the trade deficit.

是以，我們進口更多，增加了貿易赤字。

If you look at when there's a recession, that's often when the deficit shrinks.

如果你看看經濟衰退的時候，往往就是赤字縮減的時候。

We're spending less, so we're importing less.

我們的支出減少了，所以我們的進口也減少了。

That's actually a better way to look at this trade deficit, is that we spend more than we bring in as revenue.

這其實是看待貿易赤字的一個更好的方法，即我們的支出超過了我們的收入。

對一個家庭來說，這可能是壞事。

But for a country, it's more complicated.

但對於一個國家來說，情況就比較複雜了。

So let's ask an important economist who has spent decades working on this.

那麼，讓我們請教一位在這方面工作了幾十年的重要經濟學家。

Now, is it good or bad to have a trade deficit?

It's really neither, and it depends on the circumstances.

其實兩者都不是，要視具體情況而定。

When we spend more than we bring back in, that deficit amount of money is out in the world, in U.S. dollars.

當我們花出去的錢多於帶回來的錢時，這筆赤字就會以美元的形式流向世界。

What do these companies do with those U.S. dollars?

這些公司用這些美元做了什麼？

Well, they often invest it back into the U.S., into U.S. companies or securities, which isn't measured as an import.

他們通常會將資金投入美國，投資於美國公司或證券，這並不被視為進口。

Whether that's a good thing or not depends on what is driving the deficit.

這是否是件好事，取決於是什麼原因導致了赤字。

For example, imagine that you have companies that have very lucrative investment opportunities.

例如，設想您有一些公司擁有非常有利可圖的投資機會。

They are gonna finance these investments in part by selling equity shares.

他們將通過出售股票為這些投資提供部分資金。

Foreigners will likely end up buying some of those.

外國人很可能最終會購買其中的一部分。

Not necessarily if the investment pays off.

Everyone gains, and the U.S. grows more quickly.

每個人都能從中獲益，美國也能更快地發展。

Many economists point to this investment, fueled by this deficit, as one of the things that has made the U.S. so prosperous.

許多經濟學家指出，這種由赤字推動的投資是美國如此繁榮的原因之一。

We're also in a trade deficit in part because we're in a national deficit.

我們之所以出現貿易赤字，部分原因也在於我們的國家赤字。

Each year, Congress spends more than it brings in through tax revenue.

每年，國會的支出都超過稅收收入。

It takes on debt by selling bonds, bonds often bought by foreigners with those U.S. dollars from our trade deficit.

它通過出售債券舉債，而這些債券通常是由外國人用我們貿易逆差中的美元購買的。

The economic debate over whether the trade deficit is good or bad depends largely on whether that money is being invested back into the U.S.

關於貿易逆差是好是壞的經濟辯論，主要取決於這些錢是否被投資回美國。

But the political debate over whether the trade deficit is good or bad depends on how much you think the U.S. should be relying on foreign investments.

但是，關於貿易逆差是好是壞的政治辯論，取決於你認為美國應該在多大程度上依賴外國投資。

The globalists, the big globalists, have been ripping off the United States.

全球主義者，大全球主義者，一直在欺騙美國。

They've been taking money away from the United States, and all we're doing is getting some of it back.

他們一直在從美國拿走錢，而我們所做的只是拿回一部分。

So will tariffs make the trade deficit go down?

那麼，關稅會使貿易逆差減少嗎？

Again, could be yes or no, but probably no.

同樣，可能是，也可能不是，但很可能不是。

If you think that tariffs are gonna affect the trade deficit, you have to ask, how do they affect overall output, and how do they affect overall spending?

如果你認為關稅會影響貿易赤字，那你就得問，關稅對總體產出有什麼影響，對總體支出又有什麼影響？

And the answer is probably that because they push us into more inefficient production, that they're actually negative for output because they raise prices for consumers and prices for firms, probably negative for overall spending.

答案很可能是，因為它們把我們推向了更低效的生產，它們實際上對產出是負面的，因為它們提高了消費者的價格和企業的價格，可能對總體支出是負面的。

Output may go down, spending may go down.

產出可能下降，支出可能減少。

Notice that all economic activity is going down, and that's not good, but the effect on the deficit is unclear.

請注意，所有經濟活動都在下降，這不是好事，但對赤字的影響還不清楚。

And I would say that a deficit that falls because you've imposed tariffs is probably a deficit that's not falling for the right reasons.

我想說的是，如果因為徵收關稅而導致赤字下降，那麼赤字下降的原因可能並不正確。

The deficit should fall because people wanna save more to provide for the future, they become more thrifty, that's great, or the government becomes more thrifty, an even more far-fetched idea.

赤字應該下降，因為人們想儲蓄更多，為未來做準備，他們變得更節儉了，這很好，或者政府變得更節儉了，這是一個更牽強的想法。

But all of that is another way of saying that when imports fall, exports tend to fall.

但所有這一切都說明，當進口下降時，出口往往也會下降。

One extreme case might be if the U.S. actually goes into a recession as a result of these tariffs, in which case, I would expect the deficit to fall because recession is likely led by cutbacks in investment and consumer spending.

一個極端的情況可能是，如果美國真的因為這些關稅而陷入衰退，在這種情況下，我預計赤字會下降，因為衰退很可能會導致投資和消費支出的削減。