Name: If Hormuz stays shut, who really wins? | DW News
Uploaded: 2026-03-31T17:00:09.000Z
Duration: 15 min 50 s

反身代名詞

I find myself yet again thinking about the Strait of Hormuz.

What if the United States could end this war with Iran without reopening the most important oil chokepoint on Earth?

如果美國能在不重開地球上最重要的石油咽喉點的情況下，結束這場與伊朗的戰爭，那會怎麼樣呢？

There seems to be a striking shift in Washington's strategy.

華盛頓的策略似乎出現了驚人的轉變。

The Wall Street Journal suggests Donald Trump is now willing to wind down the conflict with Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz stays partially closed.

華爾街日報指出，即使荷姆茲海峽部分關閉，唐納·川普現在也願意結束與伊朗的衝突。

Again, the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil.

再說一次，這條水道承載了全球約五分之一的石油。

The waterway Iran effectively shut down after the U.S. and Israel started this war.

這條水道是伊朗在美國和以色列發動這場戰爭後，實際上關閉的。

Is this a sign the war has achieved its real objectives, or that those objectives have quietly changed?

這是否意味著戰爭達成了真正的目標，還是說這些目標已經悄悄改變了？

forces are still building up in the region,

and military options, from seizing islands to clearing mines, remain very much on the table.

軍事選項，從佔領島嶼到清除水雷，都還在考慮中。

And if Hormuz stays shut, who really wins?

如果荷姆茲海峽持續關閉，誰才是真正的贏家？

Before we get there, a quick reminder to ourselves of the geography here, because it's key to what's going on now and what might happen later.

在我們深入探討之前，先快速回顧一下這裡的地理位置，因為這對現在正在發生的事以及未來可能發生的事至關重要。

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, with Iran to the north.

荷姆茲海峽是波斯灣和阿曼灣之間一條關鍵的水道，伊朗位於其北側。

And at its narrowest point, it's only around 33 kilometers wide.

而它最窄的地方，寬度大約只有 33 公里。

Unless you've been living under a rock for the last month, you know this is now a central flashpoint in the conflict because 20 percent of the world's oil normally flows right through there.

除非你過去一個月都與世隔絕，否則你應該知道，這裡現在是衝突的中心引爆點，因為全球有 20% 的石油通常都從這裡通過。

But that's not happening right now because Iran has effectively closed Hormuz.

但現在情況並非如此，因為伊朗已經實際關閉了荷姆茲海峽。

而這張地圖可以幫助我們瞭解原因。

Check out all those colored symbols gathered together just to the left of that high bend there.

看看在那個高彎處左邊聚集的所有彩色符號。

And according to the International Maritime Organization, somewhere between 2,000 and 3,200 vessels are trapped in the Gulf to the west of the strait.

根據國際海事組織的說法，在海峽以西的波斯灣，大約有兩千到三千兩百艘船隻受困。

The knock-on effect, the growing global energy shock that's now impacting the markets and the cost of gas for so many around the world, including in the U.S.

這會產生連鎖效應，全球能源衝擊正在擴大，影響到市場和全球許多人的汽油價格，包括美國。

Malcolm Davis, senior military analyst at ASPI, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, who's going to help us unpack what this moment tells us about how this war might actually end.

澳洲戰略政策研究所的高級軍事分析師 Malcolm Davis 博士，他將幫助我們剖析這個時刻，告訴我們這場戰爭可能會如何結束。

First, let's talk about how the Strait of Hormuz is operating right now.

首先，我們來談談荷姆茲海峽目前的運作情況。

If you had a 24/7 bird's-eye view of the strait, how would you describe the comings and goings?

如果你從空中 24 小時不間斷地俯瞰這條海峽，你會怎麼形容這裡的船隻往來？

If you looked at your map on the Persian Gulf side of the strait, all those ships are bottled up.

如果從地圖上看波斯灣那側的海峽，你會發現所有船隻都被堵住了。

On the Gulf of Oman side, likewise, you have ships that can't get through the strait.

同樣地，在阿曼灣那側，也有船隻無法通過海峽。

The Iranians are allowing the occasional ship to go through from countries that are friendly to Iran, such as China.

伊朗允許與伊朗友好的國家，像是中國，偶爾有一些船隻通過。

And as a result, 20 percent of the world's oil supplies have been cut off.

結果就是，全球百分之二十的石油供應被切斷了。

And that's creating economic chaos around the world.

這正在造成全球性的經濟混亂。

According to the Iranian news agency, Iran's parliament has approved plans to charge a toll to ships passing through the strait.

根據伊朗新聞社報導，伊朗國會已經準許了對通過海峽的船隻收取通行費的計畫。

Is this war making Iran stronger and richer?

這場戰爭讓伊朗變得更強大、更富有嗎？

Well, that toll is being charged in Chinese yuan.

嗯，這個通行費是以人民幣收取的。

But certainly, Iran would benefit economically if countries were prepared to pay that toll.

不過，如果各國願意支付這筆通行費，伊朗當然會在經濟上獲益。

但這確實開創了一個壞的先例。

And I think it basically boils down to extortion.

So the international community should not accept paying a toll in Chinese yuan to go through the Strait of Hormuz, which, after all, is international waters.

所以國際社會不應該接受為了通過荷姆茲海峽，也就是國際水道，而支付人民幣的通行費。

I wonder, at this point, is military action the only option to open the strait?

我想，到這個時候，軍事行動是唯一能打開海峽的選項嗎？

看看，不幸的是，我認為是這樣。

Certainly, there's no indication whatsoever that diplomacy is succeeding.

當然，完全沒有跡象顯示外交正在奏效。

The Trump administration is saying that it is having very successful diplomatic negotiations with the Iranians.

川普政府表示，他們正與伊朗進行非常成功的外交談判。

But there's no evidence to the effect that that is actually the case.

但是沒有任何證據顯示情況確實如此。

And certainly, both the United States and Iran have put forward positions that are equally unacceptable to either side.

而且，美國和伊朗都提出了雙方都無法接受的立場。

So, unfortunately, the way I see it is that we are locked in for military action to force open the strait.

所以，不幸的是，我認為我們只能採取軍事行動來強行打開海峽。

That'll take a very long time, probably weeks, if not months, to actually achieve that.

這將需要很長的時間，可能數週，甚至數月才能真正達成。

And part of that could involve the deployment of ground forces.

而且其中一部分可能還包括部署地面部隊。

If Hormuz is no longer a benchmark, an objective for the U.S., what does winning actually look like in this war?

如果荷姆茲不再是美國的目標或基準，那麼在這場戰爭中獲勝究竟是什麼樣子？

Are we seeing objectives quietly being rewritten mid-conflict?

我們是否看到目標在衝突中被悄悄改寫？

你看，我認為這就是正在發生的事情。

Unfortunately, the reality is that I don't see how the Trump administration can somehow justify or claim victory when the Strait of Hormuz is shut.

不幸的是，現實是，我看不出川普政府如何在荷姆茲海峽關閉的情況下，合理化或宣稱勝利。

Because, after all, that still would see Iran with a chokehold on international oil, an ability to effectively coerce countries around the world by cutting off their oil.

因為畢竟，這仍然會讓伊朗掌握國際石油的咽喉點，並有能力透過切斷石油來有效脅迫世界各國。

I don't see how that equates to a U.S. victory.

我看不出這怎麼能算是美國的勝利。

After all, what you now have is not regime change in Tehran, but

畢竟，你們現在面對的不是德黑蘭的政權更迭，而是

an intensified, increasingly rigid and extremist regime that have come to power in Tehran.

一個在德黑蘭掌權的、日益僵化且極端的政權。

You have Iran still possessing significant portions of missile capabilities.

伊朗仍然擁有相當一部分的飛彈能力。

Yes, the Americans have destroyed the Iranian Air Force and Navy.

是的，美國摧毀了伊朗的空軍和海軍。

But the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy is still largely in existence.

但伊朗革命衛隊海軍仍然大部分存在。

And there's the real concern about Iranian acquisition of enriched uranium that could give them nuclear weapons.

而且，真正令人擔憂的是伊朗可能取得濃縮鈾，這將使他們擁有核武。

So all these factors, together with the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, does not equate to a U.S.

所以，所有這些因素，加上荷姆茲海峽仍然關閉的事實，都不能算是美國的

pulls out at this point and tries to claim victory effectively, they're accepting that their Operation Epic Fury has, in fact, failed.

在這個時候退出並聲稱勝利，就等於承認他們的「史詩級憤怒行動」確實失敗了。

There's been so much talk about the U.S.'s objectives because, well, I mean, it's war.

關於美軍的目標，大家討論得非常多，因為畢竟這是戰爭。

And the public usually demands clearly articulated reasons that will allow them to support the war.

大眾通常會要求明確的理由，讓他們能夠支持這場戰爭。

But it's also because people are trying to make sense of the mixed messaging from the White House.

但這也是因為大家試圖理解白宮發出的混亂訊息。

On Monday, Trump posted this on Truth Social: "If for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and

週一，川普在 Truth Social 上發文：「如果因為任何原因，協議沒有很快達成（很可能會達成），

if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately open for business, we will conclude our lovely stay in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their electric generating plants, oil wells, and

而且荷姆茲海峽沒有立即開放商業通行，我們將結束在伊朗的美好停留，炸毀並徹底摧毀他們所有的發電廠、油井，

cargo and possibly all desalination plants, which we have purposely not yet touched." Aggressive words about the reopening of the strait.

以及貨物，甚至可能還有所有我們故意還沒動過的淡化廠。」這是關於重開海峽的強硬言論。

But here's his White House spokesperson just hours later briefing the media about U.S. objectives.

但幾個小時後，白宮發言人卻向媒體簡報美軍的目標。

With respect to the timeline, again, the president, commander in chief, the Pentagon has always stated four to six weeks estimated timeline for Operation Epic Fury.

關於時間表，總統、三軍統帥，五角大廈一直表示「史詩級憤怒行動」預計需要四到六週。

So, again, you do the math on how much longer the Pentagon needs to fully achieve the objectives of Operation Epic Fury, which I will reiterate: destroy the Iranian Navy, destroy their ballistic missiles, dismantle their missile and drone production infrastructure, significantly weaken their proxies throughout the course of this operation,

所以，再算一下五角大廈還需要多久才能完全達成「史詩級憤怒行動」的目標，我再說一次：摧毀伊朗海軍、摧毀他們的彈道飛彈、拆除他們的飛彈和無人機生產基礎設施，並在此行動過程中顯著削弱他們的代理人，

and then, of course, preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.

還有，當然，阻止伊朗獲得核武。

No mention about ending Tehran's stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz.

但沒有提到要解除德黑蘭對荷姆茲海峽的控制。

Whatever the goals are for this White House, Malcolm, if the U.S.

無論這個白宮的目標是什麼，馬爾科姆，如果美軍

ends the war before the strait is reopened, who really wins?

在海峽重開前結束戰爭，那誰才是贏家？

If that happens, then I would argue that Iran wins because they have effectively kept hold of the Strait of Hormuz, denied it to the rest of the world.

如果真的發生了，我會說伊朗贏了，因為他們成功地掌控了荷姆茲海峽，阻止了世界其他地方使用。

Yes, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has been killed.

是的，最高領袖阿亞圖拉·哈梅內伊已經被殺了。

But his son has now been put into his place.

但他的兒子現在已經接替了他的位置。

And the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, really now runs the show in Tehran.

而且伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊，現在真的就是德黑蘭的實際掌權者。

I think that, yes, the Americans have destroyed the Iranian Navy and the Iranian Air Force.

我認為，是的，美國人摧毀了伊朗海軍和伊朗空軍。

And they've destroyed a substantial portion of Iranian missile and drone capabilities.

而且他們也摧毀了伊朗相當多的飛彈和無人機的戰力。

They've been building missiles and drones for years.

他們已經製造飛彈和無人機很多年了。

And so I would argue that it's likely that the Iranians still have substantial missile and drone stockpiles.

所以我認為，伊朗很可能仍然擁有大量的飛彈和無人機庫存。

And finally, there's that nuclear question, that enriched uranium, up to 600 kilograms of enriched uranium, potentially that could be easily converted into nuclear weapons.

最後，還有那個核武問題，那些濃縮鈾，高達六百公斤的濃縮鈾，潛在的，可以輕易轉化為核武器。

So I'm struggling to see how the Americans claim this as a win, and

所以我真的很難看出美國人要怎麼宣稱這是一場勝利，

particularly if the Iranians keep the Strait of Hormuz closed after the Americans withdraw.

特別是如果美國人撤兵後，伊朗人仍然封鎖荷姆茲海峽。

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If Hormuz stays shut, who really wins? | DW News

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