Name: 川普政府對伊朗戰爭「毫無章法」？前美軍上校這麼說！ (Trump administration has 'no coherent objective' in Iran war: Former US colonel)
Uploaded: 2026-03-22T23:04:29.000Z
Duration: 8 min 5 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson was chief of staff for former US Secretary of State Colin Colin Powell for 16 years.

Lawrence Wilkerson 上校曾擔任前美國國務卿 Colin Powell 的參謀長長達 16 年。

He was a distinguished visiting professor of government and public policy at the College of William and Mary.

他曾是威廉與瑪麗學院政府與公共政策的傑出訪問教授。

程度副詞

And he joins us now live from just Outside of Washington, D.C.

他現在正從華盛頓特區外現場連線加入我們。

colonel, it did seem at the beginning that Donald Trump expected a quick win here.

上校，一開始看起來唐納·川普預期會速戰速決。

Well, coming off the high of what happened in Venezuela, certainly not got that.

嗯，在委內瑞拉事件的餘威下，顯然沒有達成。

Is the US And Israeli strategy in danger of unraveling?

美國與以色列的策略有瓦解的危險嗎？

Haaretz, the Israeli newspaper that I read, the only one that Bibi doesn't own, had a headline the other day that was very, very accurate.

我讀的以色列報紙 Haaretz，也是 Bibi 沒有擁有的唯一一家，前幾天有個頭條寫得非常非常精準。

Donald Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu need a spectacular victory to win.

唐納·川普和總理內塔尼亞胡需要輝煌的勝利才能贏。

They will not achieve that spectacular victory.

他們不會贏得那場輝煌的勝利。

And in fact, now Hezbollah is showing a resilience and a resoluteness that Bibi underestimated also.

事實上，真主黨現在展現出的韌性和堅決，也是 Bibi 低估的。

So he's got at least a two front war and arguably an even bigger war than that because he's got an appetite for other places like Syria as well as Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank.

所以他至少面臨兩線作戰，甚至可能是一場更大的戰爭，因為他對敘利亞、黎巴嫩、加薩和約旦河西岸等地都有野心。

But what about the strategy employed during this conflict?

但這次衝突採用的策略是什麼呢？

Okay, but has that strategy been conflated with a, with its objective, which is, well, ephemeral at best?

好的，但那個策略是否和它的目標混淆了？而那個目標充其量只是短暫的。

I mean, we've had nine reasons from Donald Trump for starting this war.

我意思是，我們已經聽了唐納·川普九個發動這場戰爭的理由。

And if you give me a good one, I might assume it is the objective because I have heard nothing from my military, nothing from the State Department, and

如果你給我一個好的理由，我或許會認為那就是目標，因為我從軍方、國務院，

certainly nothing from the White House that even resembles a coherent objective, let alone a achievable objective.

更不用說白宮，什麼都沒聽到，沒有任何像樣的、連貫的目標，更別說是可實現的目標了。

What I've heard is everything from this will be a short war, this will be a long war, this will be a ground force war, this will be an air war, this will be a missile war.

我聽到的說法五花八門，有說這會是場短暫的戰爭，有說會是場漫長的戰爭，有說會是場地面部隊戰，有說會是場空戰，有說會是場飛彈戰。

I don't think they know what they're doing, frankly.

坦白說，我不認為他們知道自己在做什麼。

And that is very disturbing for a man like me who spent 31 years in the American military and most of the time knew what we were doing.

這對我這樣一個在美國軍隊待了 31 年，而且大部分時間都知道自己在做什麼的人來說，非常令人不安。

I don't see anyone in this group that looks like they know what they're doing.

我看不出這群人裡有誰看起來知道自己在做什麼。

So certainly not the secretary of Defense War Hegseth, and certainly not the president.

所以國防部長 War Hegseth 肯定不知道，總統肯定也不知道。

And I might as well throw the national security adviser slash secretary of state in there.

我也可以把國家安全顧問兼國務卿也算進去。

They don't seem to know what they're doing and they're not using the statutory decision making process, as Tulsi Gabbard indicated vividly to Congress, even though she also indicated a total ignorance of that process.

他們似乎不知道自己在做什麼，而且他們沒有按照法定決策程序進行，就像 Tulsi Gabbard 生動地向國會指出的那樣，儘管她也表明了對該程序的完全無知。

We don't actually even know what's actually happening within Israel, whether the ballistic missiles that Iran has fired and they're getting better in terms of the quality of them as ordnance is depleted in Iron Dome and other defense systems.

我們其實甚至不知道以色列境內到底發生了什麼，伊朗發射的彈道飛彈，以及它們的品質越來越好，因為鐵穹和其他防禦系統的彈藥正在耗盡。

Well, they're putting Rom Shahs in there now, Mach 3, Mach 4 missiles, many of which have, I don't call them cluster warheads, I call them mirved warheads like our nuclear missiles.

嗯，他們現在正在部署 Rom Shahs，Mach 3、Mach 4 飛彈，其中許多飛彈，我稱之為 mirved 彈頭，就像我們的核飛彈一樣，而不是集束彈頭。

That is to say they're, they're much better than cluster bombs or cluster warheads.

也就是說，它們比集束炸彈或集束彈頭好得多。

And I've seen video, I've seen live video smuggled out to be sure, because Israel has cracked down on it majorly.

而且我看到了影片，也看到了被偷偷傳出來的現場影片，因為以色列對這方面嚴加管控。

And I have seen the damage done to Haifa and the oil facilities there and the port there.

我也看到了對海法、那裡的煉油廠和港口的破壞。

我看到了對本·古裡安機場的破壞。

I've seen the damage done internally to Tel Aviv.

我看到了對特拉維夫內部造成的破壞。

I've seen people die on the street running between bomb shelters.

我看到人們在炸彈避難所之間奔跑時死在街上。

So the devastation being wreaked on Israel despite their blockade of any information getting out is leaking out.

所以，儘管以色列封鎖了任何資訊外洩，但正在對以色列造成的破壞卻在洩漏出來。

How do you think that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is viewing all this now?

你認為總理班傑明·納坦雅胡現在是如何看待這一切的？

I think he's probably getting somewhat desperate and I recall to my mind sadly enough, gravely enough, what he said in Hebrew to his entourage of like minded people about four or five days ago in a bunker which was.

我認為他可能有點絕望了，而且我悲傷又嚴重地回想起，四五天前他在一個地堡裡，用希伯來語對他志同道合的隨行人員說的話，當時是。

They will get a big surprise if this keeps up.

如果這繼續下去，他們將會大吃一驚。

Words to that effect in Hebrew, they aren't, they essentially were translated for me as they cannot imagine what I'm going to do to them.

類似這樣的話，希伯來語的意思是，他們無法想像我要對他們做什麼。

Well, there's only one way as a military professional.

嗯，身為軍事專業人士，只有一種方法。

I interpret that as he's going to use a nuclear weapon.

我的解讀是，他會使用核子武器。

Well, that would be one thing which they had countenanced before in the 1973 war with Golda Meier.

嗯，這會是他們在1973年戰爭中，由戈爾達·梅厄（Golda Meier）授權過的一件事。

Here I'm very concerned as a military professional who knows something about nuclear warfare.

在這一點上，身為一位對核戰略有所瞭解的軍事專業人士，我非常擔心。

I was a prefix 5 officer, for example, which means I knew about nuclear weapons.

例如，我曾是prefix 5軍官，這意味著我瞭解核武器。

If you really wanted to damage Iran in a significant way that might bring them to the table to surrender, you wouldn't use one.

如果你真的想對伊朗造成重大損害，讓他們坐上談判桌投降，你不會只用一個。

Because Iran is a country as big as Western Europe.

因為伊朗是一個跟西歐一樣大的國家。

It has some incredibly daunting terrain in the Zagros Mountains, in the dashtokivir Desert.

在札格羅斯山脈、達什特科維爾沙漠，它有一些令人望而生畏的地形。

they are small, are not going to do that much damage unless you mass them and you mass them on key underground targets.

它們體積不大，除非你將它們大量部署並集中在關鍵的地下目標上，否則造成的傷害不會太大。

So I don't think this is going to be a single use of a nuclear weapon.

所以我不認為這會是單一使用核武器。

If he does do it, it's going to be multiple weapons.

如果他真的這麼做，將會是多枚武器。

But he'd also break the nuclear taboo, but not nearly.

但他也將打破核禁忌，但程度遠不及。

Of course, that would be the worst kind of outcome here.

But a second worst outcome possibly would be the US and Israel putting boots on the ground.

但第二糟糕的結果，可能是美國和以色列派遣地面部隊。

I've seen the so called plan for using the Marine Expeditionary Units that are now making their way toward Khar Island a long way away right now, one carrier and grouper in the Red Sea and I think the others up in the Mediterranean still.

我看過所謂的計畫，關於使用現在正前往卡爾島的陸戰遠徵部隊，距離很遠，目前有一艘航空母艦和一艘兩棲攻擊艦在地中海，我認為其他艦艇還在地中海。

So if they do it, they're going to have to do it with Ospreys, they're going to have to do it with aircraft, in other words, and

所以如果他們這麼做，他們將不得不使用魚鷹式傾轉旋翼機，換句話說，他們將不得不使用飛機，

they're going to have to stage out of Kuwait or some other similar place close by because the range of an Osprey is only about 400 miles.

而且他們將不得不從科威特或其他類似的附近地點進行部署，因為魚鷹式傾轉旋翼機的航程只有大約400英里。

So if they're going to do this, it's going to be extremely dangerous.

所以如果他們要這麼做，那將會非常危險。

And I fear that's what they're thinking about, the precision of Venezuela.

我擔心這就是他們正在考慮的，委內瑞拉的精準度。

They can implement that in the Persian Gulf.

他們可以在波斯灣執行這個計畫。

I planned for warfare in the Persian Gulf for four years at the Pacific Command when we were the command responsible for it.

我在太平洋司令部負責波斯灣戰事時，為此計畫了四年。

None of Iran is easy territory, not even Kharga island, the Forbidden island as it's called.

伊朗沒有一個地方是容易的，即使是哈爾格島，也就是所謂的禁忌島。

But I think it's a little bit too far to think that we can take it and not get enormous casualty count out of that.

但我認為，想拿下它卻不會付出慘重傷亡，這想法有點太過天真了。

Where will this conflict in your view with what you've said, leave America, Colonel, and

上校，依您剛才所說，這場衝突會讓美國，

I think the Arab countries in particular, but all the countries, including Egypt, and

但我認為，阿拉伯國家，特別是埃及等所有國家，

I don't consider them an Arab country, have learned that the security agreement of the United States is a false one, that they have been attacked and attacked and attacked and that they might be attacked even further and in a more deadly way.

我認為他們已經學到，美國的安全協議是虛假的，他們遭到一次又一次的攻擊，未來可能還會遭受更嚴重、更致命的攻擊。

And so they're going to be looking for new big daddies, if you will, and

所以他們會尋找新的靠山，如果這麼說的話，

the big daddies are right there waiting for them.

而這些靠山就在那裡等著他們。

Colonel, thank you so much for your time.

Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, the former Chief of Staff, US Secretary of State Colin Powell.

前美國國務卿鮑威爾的參謀長 Lawrence Wilkerson 上校。