Name: 川普給伊朗48小時最後通牒，要求重開荷姆茲海峽！ (Trump gives Iran 48-hour ultimatum to reopen Strait of Hormuz)
Uploaded: 2026-03-22T16:32:04.000Z
Duration: 9 min 31 s

President Donald Trump is threatening an enormous attack on Iran's energy infrastructure if Tehran doesn't allow free navigation through the strategic strait of Hormuz.

川普總統揚言，若德黑蘭不允許荷姆茲海峽自由航行，將對伊朗的能源基礎設施發動大規模攻擊。

CNN's Eleni Jokos joining us live from Dubai.

CNN 的 Eleni Jokos 在杜拜為我們現場連線。

Eleni, Donald Trump then threatening Iran with an enormous punch on Iran's energy infrastructure should Tehran not, quote, open the strait within 48 hours.

Eleni，川普總統接著威脅伊朗，若德黑蘭不在 48 小時內「開放」海峽，將對伊朗的能源基礎設施發動大規模攻擊。

Its not at all clear whether Iran will heed that warning.

伊朗是否會聽從這個警告，目前還不清楚。

The impact of that choke point and the effect of a shutdown in energy sites around the region continues to have a huge impact on the world economy.

這個瓶頸的衝擊，以及該區域能源設施關閉的影響，持續對世界經濟造成巨大衝擊。

Asian markets will open first, of course, for Monday trade.

當然，週一交易時，亞洲市場會先開盤。

We are feeling it around the world already.

我們在全球各地都已經感受到影響了。

I think, Becky, you can see inflation inputs basically across the board, whether it's energy, whether it's, you know, things like downstream products on jet fuel, other products across the world.

我想 Becky，你可以看到，無論是能源，或是像航空燃油這類的下游產品，以及全球其他產品，基本上全面性地都出現了通膨輸入。

I think that speaking to a lot of corporates are really worried about what it's going to do to earnings down the line.

我想很多企業都非常擔心這會對未來的營收造成什麼影響。

And this is why we started to see a lot of concern coming through and even in the markets and the equities.

這也是為什麼我們開始看到很多擔憂出現，甚至在市場和股票方面。

But just focusing on President Trump's line on if the Strait of Hormuz is not open within 48 hours, that he's going to hit and obliterate power plants and he's going to start with the biggest power plants in Iran so clearly giving them an ultimatum.

但如果只聚焦在川普總統的說法，如果荷姆茲海峽在 48 小時內沒有開放，他就要攻擊並摧毀發電廠，而且會從伊朗最大的發電廠開始，顯然是給了他們最後通牒。

Iran, for its part, coming up with a statement today saying that all vessels can pass through the Strait of Hormuz as long as they're not linked to what they say is the enemy.

伊朗方面，今天也發表聲明說，只要船隻不與他們所謂的敵人有關，都可以通過荷姆茲海峽。

So we're talking about US And Israeli linked vessels now.

所以我們現在談論的是與美國和以色列有關的船隻。

How they apply that rule remains to be seen.

他們如何執行這項規定還有待觀察。

We've heard just another vessel was impacted by an unknown projectile just off the coast here in the UAE in Sharjah.

我們聽到消息，在阿拉伯聯合大公國的夏爾迦海岸附近，又有另一艘船遭到不明彈體的攻擊。

So we're seeing around 22 vessels that have already been impacted since the start of this war.

所以我們看到自戰爭開始以來，已經有大約 22 艘船隻受到影響。

And that, of course, creates a lot of nervousness from shippers.

這當然會讓貨運業者感到非常緊張。

Iran also saying that if any of its power plants are in fact targeted, that they will retaliate.

伊朗也表示，如果他們的任何發電廠真的遭到攻擊，他們將會報復。

And they're focusing on desalination plants as a US Assets as well as other critical energy infrastructure.

他們會將海水淡化廠視為美國資產，以及其他重要的能源基礎設施。

So rhetoric definitely has been escalated.

The big question is is President Trump going to be happy with the line of, well, you know, anyone can pass through the strait as long as it's not the US And Israel linked vessels.

最大的問題是，川普總統會不會滿意這樣的說法：任何人都可以通過海峽，只要不是美國和以色列相關的船隻。

And then importantly that whoever wants to pass through the strait will, will have to coordinate with Iran for security guarantees.

而且重要的是，任何想通過海峽的人都必須與伊朗協調安全保證。

In the meantime, we have heard that 22 countries have shown interest to assist in securing the straits.

同時，我們聽說有 22 個國家表示有興趣協助確保海峽安全。

In the meantime, interestingly, over the weekend, we also heard President Trump saying that he wants to start winding down the war.

同時，有趣的是，週末我們也聽到川普總統說他想開始逐步結束戰爭。

So in terms of the inconsistencies we've been hearing specifically from the United States, Becky, this now, 23 days into this war, the Gulf nations have borne the brunt of what we've been seeing in these strikes against the region, specifically on critical energy infrastructure.

所以，關於我們聽到的、特別是來自美國的不一致之處，貝琪，現在戰爭已經進行了 23 天，波斯灣國家已經承受了我們在這些針對該地區的攻擊中所看到的衝擊，特別是針對重要的能源基礎設施。

This threat that was issued by President Trump on Saturday night run as you saw, a very direct threat to the Iranians saying if they do not re establish free navigation or allow for free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and completely reopen it, then the US Will potentially strike some of their energy.

川普總統週六晚上發出的這個威脅，如你所見，是一個非常直接的威脅，告訴伊朗人，如果他們不重新建立荷姆茲海峽的自由航行，或者允許自由航行，並完全重新開放它，那麼美國將可能攻擊他們的一些能源。

Do you see this as perhaps the President really feeling that mounting political pressure that you and I have discussed for the last several weeks?

你認為這是總統真的感受到，你我過去幾週討論過的政治壓力嗎？

Well, you know, it's also, I mean, look, it is the president, either by design or impulse, just sort of careening in his messaging on the war.

嗯，你知道，這也是，我的意思是，看看，無論是計畫還是衝動，總統在傳達關於戰爭的訊息時，都顯得有些搖擺不定。

You know, I mean, literally just days ago, he said.

你知道，我的意思是，就在幾天前，他還說了。

He said incorrectly, as it turned out, but

他說錯了，結果證明是這樣，但是

he did say that the US Was not informed of the Israeli attack on Iranian energy infrastructure.

他確實說過，美國沒有被告知以色列對伊朗能源基礎設施的攻擊。

And then, of course, Iran responded by attacking other energy infrastructure in the region.

然後，當然，伊朗也回應攻擊了該地區其他的能源基礎設施。

The ruling regime can absorb a lot of pain on behalf of its public in a way that is just harder for our democracy to do.

執政政權可以為了他們的民眾承受很多痛苦，這一點我們的民主國家就比較難做到。

So it's kind of hard to imagine that this threat is going to lead to Iran to say, okay, yes, we cave and we are going to open the strait.

所以很難想像這個威脅會讓伊朗說，好吧，我們屈服了，我們要開放海峽。

More likely, if the US Follows through on this, Iran will try to take out more energy infrastructure in the region.

更有可能的是，如果美國真的這麼做，伊朗會試圖摧毀該地區更多的能源基礎設施。

And that could almost immediately be reflected in even higher gas prices.

而且這幾乎會立即反映在更高的油價上。

I mean, the President has always behaved, I think, in almost every situation, as though he is the one with escalation dominance, what the military planners call escalation dominance.

我的意思是，我認為總統在幾乎所有情況下，都表現得好像他擁有升級優勢，也就是軍事規劃者所說的升級優勢。

He decides how intense the conflict flares and when it ends.

他決定衝突的激烈程度以及何時結束。

And that just does not seem to be the case right now.

If he does get free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz again, what happens then to this issue of NATO and how he's been obviously criticizing NATO allies while at the same time calling on their support?

如果他再次在荷姆茲海峽獲得自由航行權，那麼關於北約的問題，以及他顯然在批評北約盟友的同時，又呼籲他們支持，又會怎麼樣呢？

I mean, would he still need their support?

我的意思是，他還需要他們的支援嗎？

Well, again, if you think that Iran is going to completely back down and open the strait, or that we can do it through unilateral military force in some way, Then he doesn't need NATO.

嗯，再說一次，如果你認為伊朗會完全退縮並開放海峽，或者我們能以某種方式透過單方面的軍事力量做到這一點，那麼他就不需要北約了。

But I think the posture of this administration toward traditional allies has been kind of indifference at best and diffidence and actually derision at worst.

但我認為，這個政府對傳統盟友的態度充其量是漠不關心，最糟則是輕蔑和嘲諷。

And, I mean, the response of the NATO allies to this is what you might expect from those 15, 16 months of this kind of behavior.

而且，我的意思是，北約盟友對此的反應，大概就是你預期到這 15、16 個月這種行為會有的反應。

I mean, the President has really not shown a lot of interest either in making the case to this, too, our traditional allies, why this was necessary to do other than Israel, and

我的意思是，總統對於向我們的傳統盟友，除了以色列之外，說明這為什麼是必要的，並沒有展現出太大的興趣，

更不用說向國內的公眾說明瞭。

I mean, there's kind of been this sense that, you know, we have the force to do this, and

我的意思是，大家似乎都有種感覺，你知道的，我們有力量可以做到這件事，

therefore everybody else, including the Iranians, would fall in line.

是以其他人，包括伊朗人，都會乖乖聽話。

And, you know, in the end, we may get an awful lot of what we want out of this war, but

而且，你知道的，最終，我們可能會從這場戰爭中得到很多我們想要的東西，

we are certainly not getting it at as low a cost as he expects.

但我們絕對無法以他預期的低成本來達成。

And the biggest thing that we thought we might precipitate, which is the collapse of the regime, seems nowhere in sight.

而我們認為最可能引發的，也就是政權的垮臺，似乎遙遙無期。

And again, the President's response when pressured, almost always his first response, is to escalate, to threaten more like, right, NATO isn't doing what he wants.

再說一次，總統在受到壓力時的反應，幾乎總是他的第一反應，就是升級，威脅更多，就像，對吧，北約沒有做他想做的事。

We may reconsider our relations with NATO, and that is what the military planners call escalation, dominance.

我們可能會重新考慮我們與北約的關係，而這就是軍事規劃者所說的「升級、主導」。

But it does not seem to be completely in our hands at this moment.

但此刻看來，這似乎並非完全由我們掌控。

現在加入我們的是 Mehran Kamrava。

He's a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar.

他是卡達喬治城大學的政府學教授。

Thank you so much for being with me, sir.

We are now into the fourth week of this war.

這場戰爭我們已經進入第四週了。

When you look at where things stand at a moment, do you see each the side moving closer to a strategic objective, or are we simply just watching a conflict that's widening without any clear endgame?

當您審視現況時，您認為雙方是否正朝著戰略目標邁進，或者我們只是在看一場衝突不斷擴大，卻沒有明確的結局？

I'm afraid we are witnessing a conflict that continues to escalate every day.

我擔心我們正目睹一場每天都在升級的衝突。

We're surprised by yet another red line being traversed.

我們對於又一條紅線被跨越感到驚訝。

And now we are looking at this threat from President Trump saying that Iranian energy facilities and power plants will be hit, and

而現在我們正看到 Donald Trump 發出威脅，說伊朗的能源設施和發電廠將會遭到攻擊，

Iran has in turn threatened to hit energy facilities here in the Persian Gulf region.

伊朗也反過來威脅要攻擊波斯灣地區的能源設施。

And if either side carries out that threat, then we're really looking into the abyss, I'm afraid.

我擔心，如果任何一方真的這麼做，我們就真的要墜入深淵了。

Joining me live to discuss all of this and the ongoing situation in the Middle east is retired U.S.

正在與我一起討論這一切以及中東持續局勢的，是美國退休的

marine intelligence officer Lt. Col. Hal Koempfer.

海軍情報官員 Hal Koempfer 中校。

He's the CEO and founder of the Global Risk Intelligence and Planning firm, as well as the host of this threat podcast.

他是 Global Risk Intelligence and Planning 公司的執行長兼創辦人，也是這個威脅播客的主持人。

Lieutenant Colonel, it's great to have you join us again.

中校，很高興您再次加入我們。

Let's assess or let's analyze what we just heard a little while ago, especially what's coming from the White House.

讓我們來評估一下，或者說分析一下我們剛才聽到的內容，特別是來自白宮的消息。

Now, with President Trump issuing a very direct threat on Iran's energy infrastructure, what are the risks for the United States and perhaps its partners in the Gulf in issuing this type of ultimatum for Iran?

現在，Donald Trump總統對伊朗的能源基礎設施發出了非常直接的威脅，這對美國及其在海灣的夥伴們發出這種最後通牒，潛在的風險是什麼？

Could it perhaps, could the regime perhaps feel cornered and increase some of its targeting?

政權會不會感到被逼到牆角，然後增加一些攻擊的目標？

Well, Paul, I think they're already starting to feel cornered.

嗯，Paul，我認為他們已經開始感到被逼到牆角了。

One of the things is this is kind of a response to what they've been doing.

其中一件事是，這有點像是對他們一直在做的事情的回應。

They've been targeting critical infrastructure in the Gulf states across the board.

他們一直在全面性地攻擊海灣國家的關鍵基礎設施。

They've been hitting obviously energy infrastructure, tremendous damage in Qatar with the liquefied natural gas capabilities there, which is really vital for the world.

他們顯然一直在攻擊能源基礎設施，對卡達的液化天然氣能力造成了巨大的損害，這對世界來說真的非常重要。

So this is basically kind of a response to that saying, will hit your power.

所以這基本上是對那種情況的回應，說我們會攻擊你們的電力。

And it is a kind of a, it's sort of a dangerous thing, but

這同時也算是一種合乎邏輯的做法。

The danger is could it alienate the Iranian people away from the US and what's trying to be done there?

危險的地方在於，這會不會讓伊朗人民疏遠美國以及那邊正在努力做的事情？

Could it make them somehow adhere to the regime in a sort of nationalist way?

這會不會讓他們以某種民族主義的方式，更加擁護這個政權？

The other side is they're thinking, well, they might turn off the lights, literally.

另一種想法是，他們可能會想，好吧，他們可能會直接關閉電力。

And if they turn off the lights, that does make it look like the regime can't do much.

如果他們關閉電力，這確實會讓大家覺得這個政權好像沒什麼能耐。

So it sort of disempowers the regime's hold on the people.

所以這某種程度上削弱了政權對人民的掌控力。

所以這確實是一種合乎邏輯的做法。

But I think there's a big psychological element.

但我認為這裡面有很大的心理層面。

請記住，我們有 48 小時的期限。

It's not something immediate, it's something for them to ponder for the next two days.

這不是馬上就會發生的事，而是讓他們在接下來兩天可以好好思考的。