Name: 伊朗威脅波斯灣國家能源設施！｜DW新聞 (Iran threatens Gulf states‘ energy facilities | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-15T17:10:50.000Z
Duration: 11 min 33 s

So the war between Iran, the US And Israel is in its third week now.

所以伊朗、美國和以色列之間的戰爭，到現在已經進入第三週了。

情態副詞

And if you've been to the gas station recently and seen the prices, you can probably guess what I'm going to say next.

如果你最近去加油站看過油價，大概就知道我要說什麼了。

基礎被動語態

Energy infrastructure across the Gulf, where a huge portion of the world's oil supply is produced, is being pulled into the conflict now.

現在，全球大部分石油供應產地的海灣地區的能源基礎設施，也捲入了這場衝突。

For the first time, Tehran is openly threatening energy facilities in neighboring countries.

德黑蘭是第一次公開威脅鄰國的能源設施。

Iran has told civilians to evacuate three major ports in the United Arab Emirates where it claims US Forces are sheltering.

伊朗已告知平民撤離阿拉伯聯合大公國的三個主要港口，聲稱美軍在那裡進行庇護。

According to Tehran, they're legitimate targets because of the U. S. Israeli campaign against Iran.

德黑蘭表示，因為美國和以色列針對伊朗的行動，所以這些地方是合法目標。

This is Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, where an Iranian drone strike caused a fire at a key oil terminal.

這裡是阿拉伯聯合大公國的富查伊拉，伊朗的一架無人機襲擊在那裡引發了關鍵石油碼頭的火災。

The strike came just hours after US Forces attacked Iran's Kharg island oil hub.

這起襲擊發生在美軍攻擊伊朗的哈爾克島石油樞紐後僅數小時。

And to give you an idea of the scale of the attacks the region's energy infrastructure is facing, let's take a look at a map of the Persian Gulf.

為了讓大家瞭解該地區能源基礎設施面臨的攻擊規模，我們來看看波斯灣的地圖。

As you can see here, there have been strikes in oil facilities across the region from Kuwait to Oman.

各位可以看到，從科威特到阿曼，該地區的石油設施都發生了襲擊。

And Iran has started placing sea lines in the Strait of Hormuz, blocking a vital choke point for energy supplies.

伊朗已經開始在荷姆茲海峽佈設海上攔阻線，封鎖了能源供應的重要咽喉點。

It's estimated that around 25% of the world's liquefied natural gas and 25% of the world's seaborne oil supplies pass through the strait each year.

據估計，全球約有 25% 的液化天然氣和 25% 的全球海運石油供應，每年都會通過這條海峽。

And we're now joined by Rosemary Kalanick.

現在加入我們的是 Rosemary Kalanick。

She's director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities and has written extensively on energy security and US Strategy in the Middle East.

她是國防優先計畫中東計畫的主任，並對能源安全和美國在中東的戰略有深入研究。

Rosemary, thanks for joining us to help break this down.

Rosemary，很高興妳能來為我們分析這個情況。

What exactly is Tehran hoping to achieve by attacking oil production facilities?

德黑蘭攻擊石油生產設施，究竟是想達成什麼目的？

This has bogged down into an attrition war between the United States and Iran.

這已經演變成美國和伊朗之間的一場消耗戰。

And Iran is playing the role of a porcupine trying to defend itself from a bear.

而伊朗就像一隻豪豬，試圖抵抗熊的攻擊。

Of course, a porcupine can't defend itself from a bear, the United States being the bear.

當然，豪豬無法抵抗熊，而美國就是那隻熊。

But what it can do is it can cause the bear pain.

但牠能做的，是讓熊感到疼痛。

It can cause enough pain that hopefully the bear will let go of the porcupine.

牠能造成足夠的疼痛，希望熊會放開豪豬。

They're attacking oil infrastructure throughout the region.

他們正在攻擊該區域的石油基礎設施。

They have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and effectively have done so because transit won't go through it.

他們威脅要關閉荷姆茲海峽，事實上他們也做到了，因為運輸將無法通過。

And the idea is that by doing that, they're ratcheting up the costs to the United States and the whole world of this war continuing in hopes that the United States will decide to stop.

這樣做的目的是提高美國和全世界繼續這場戰爭的成本，希望美國會決定停止。

So by making the war more expensive, are they hoping that the U.S.

所以透過讓戰爭變得更昂貴，他們希望美國

and Israel's allies start ramping up the pressure to end the war?

和以色列的盟友開始加大壓力，以結束戰爭？

Or are they actually looking at, like, the midterms in the US this year and hoping that pain at the pump might turn American voters off from continuing this campaign?

還是他們其實在看美國今年的期中選舉，希望油價上漲的痛苦會讓美國選民不想繼續這場行動？

You know, allies are important somewhat to the United States, but, you know, President Trump is go it alone kind of person.

大家都知道，盟友對美國來說很重要，但川普總統是那種喜歡單打獨鬥的人。

So I'd expect that mostly it's directed at the United States specifically and at support for the war at home.

所以我預計這主要是針對美國，以及國內對這場戰爭的支持。

Plus, there's just an assumption, I think, that's widely believed by many even before Trump came into office, that the United States is casualty averse, that it's cost averse.

另外，我認為大家普遍認為，甚至在川普上任前就這麼想了，就是美國很怕傷亡，也很怕付出代價。

And certainly Trump has not been shy about his preference that military campaigns be quick, decisive, and

川普當然也不避諱他偏好軍事行動要快速、決定性，

So I think this is aimed primarily at the United States, at American voters, and at Trump himself.

所以我認為這主要是針對美國、美國選民，以及川普本人。

Now, the threat of war with Iran is nothing new.

現在，與伊朗開戰的威脅並不是新鮮事。

It's probably been war game since the revolution happened.

自從革命發生以來，這可能就一直在進行兵棋推演了。

Was the world ready for the Gulf's energy infrastructure to be targeted in this way?

世界有準備好應對海灣能源基礎設施遭到這種方式的攻擊嗎？

So this is a contingency that the US Military has prepared for literally for decades.

所以這是美軍幾十年來一直在準備的一種應變計畫。

And the difficulty in trying to keep the strait open was something that we know was communicated to the president.

而且我們知道，維持海峽暢通的難度這件事，已經有向總統傳達過了。

Nevertheless, he did decide to start the war.

And the speculation is that Trump didn't believe that the war would last very long and that it wouldn't be tested.

大家的猜測是，川普認為戰爭不會持續太久，也不會受到考驗。

We wouldn't be testing whether Iran would actually close the strait, because after a decapitation strike on the capital that took out its leadership, Iran would stop fighting.

我們不會去測試伊朗是否真的會關閉海峽，因為在對首都進行斬首攻擊、消滅其領導層之後，伊朗就會停止戰鬥。

So unfortunately, the world does not seem to be very well prepared for this, even though many people saw it coming.

所以很可惜，即使許多人都預見到這件事，世界似乎都沒有做好充分的準備。

Now, does that indicate that there was a lack of preparation by the United States, or was it purely a question of misinterpreting the danger that Iran posed?

那麼，這是否表示美國準備不足，還是純粹誤判了伊朗所帶來的危險？

I think it was a miscalculation of how willing Iran was to really retaliate broadly across the region and to retaliate in the strait.

我認為這是誤判了伊朗有多願意在整個區域進行廣泛報復，以及在海峽進行報復。

President Trump had these very spectacular, very quick military successes in Venezuela earlier this year and quick success in his sort of saying of it in the 12 Day War in June.

川普總統今年稍早就在委內瑞拉取得了非常輝煌、非常快速的軍事勝利，並在六月的十二天戰爭中，以非常快速的方式取得勝利。

And so I really think that they did not plan for a longer war.

所以我真的認為他們沒有為更長的戰爭做準備。

They attacked on a Friday night and thought that the war would be done before the market opened on Monday.

他們在週五晚上發動攻擊，以為戰爭會在週一市場開市前結束。

And there just was not contingency planning in a follow through or follow up kind of way after that, which, you know, was not, it was a reckless move on the President's part.

而且事後並沒有任何後續或跟進的應變計畫，這，你知道的，是總統魯莽的舉動。

Now, Trump has indicated that bringing oil prices down is something that's important to Washington at the moment.

現在，川普已經表示降低油價是華盛頓目前重視的事。

But at the same time, we've also seen the US Go after military targets on Iran's Kharg island.

但同時，我們也看到美國攻擊伊朗哈爾克島上的軍事目標。

And if I'm right, it's responsible for 90% of Iran's oil exports.

如果我沒記錯，那裡負責了伊朗百分之九十的石油出口。

So what exactly is the logic behind those U.S. attacks?

那麼，美國這些攻擊背後的邏輯到底是什麼？

Yeah, so Trump made a point of saying that the United States did not actually strike any oil infrastructure on Kharg, but

對，所以川普特別聲明，美國實際上並沒有攻擊哈爾克島上的任何石油基礎設施，但是

that by attacking military targets he's trying to show that the US can attack oil infrastructure on Karg and is threatening to do that quite explicitly if Iran doesn't let oil go through the Strait of Hormuz.

他是在攻擊軍事目標，試圖展現美國有能力攻擊卡爾格島上的能源基礎設施，並且明確警告伊朗，如果他們不讓石油通過荷姆茲海峽，美國就會這麼做。

And what Trump is doing there is that he's trying to increase the cost to Iran of continuing the conflict, thinking that if the United States stops Iran's ability to export oil through Card, that Iran's ability to fund the war will decrease because they can't sell their oil.

川普這麼做，是想增加伊朗持續衝突的成本，他認為如果美國阻止伊朗透過卡爾格島出口石油，伊朗的戰爭資金就會減少，因為他們賣不出石油。

And it will also be more painful for Iran because they'll be unable to sell their oil if they can't export it through Card.

而且這樣對伊朗來說也會更痛苦，因為如果他們無法透過卡爾格島出口石油，就賣不出去。

So you know, he's trying to use it as a form of leverage to get Iran to back down.

所以你知道，他試圖用這種方式作為籌碼，讓伊朗退讓。

But I think it would be surprising if Iran did back down for that reason.

但我認為，伊朗會是以退讓的話，那就太令人意外了。

Now we have Iran trying to increase the costs for the US of waging war.

現在，伊朗也在試圖提高美國發動戰爭的成本。

At the same time Iran is trying or the US is trying to drive up the cost for Iran.

同時，美國也在試圖提高伊朗的成本。

But the larger question is what type of risks does this conflict pose for global energy markets in the short term?

但更大的問題是，這場衝突在短期內對全球能源市場會帶來什麼風險？

Well, in the short term, I mean, we're already seeing the risk unfolding in real time, which is that energy prices are going up and specifically oil prices are going up, natural gas prices are going up because it's oil and natural gas specifically that's being disrupted.

嗯，短期內，我的意思是，我們已經看到風險即時上演，那就是能源價格正在上漲，特別是石油價格和天然氣價格都在上漲，因為受到幹擾的正是石油和天然氣。

And that can have all kinds of follow on effects.

So oil price shocks, especially when it's a supply shock like this, they are associated with economic recessions.

所以油價衝擊，特別是像這樣供應上的衝擊，通常都跟經濟衰退有關。

We could see an economic recession if oil prices go up and stay up for a long period of time.

如果油價持續上漲一段時間，我們可能會看到經濟衰退。

So that is, that is a real problem in the long run.

所以這在長期來看，確實是個大問題。

I do think that this will change consumers behavior other times that we've had massive oil shocks like in 1973.

我認為這會改變消費者的行為，就像我們在1973年經歷過嚴重的石油衝擊一樣。

As a result, in the years following that, the world decreased its reliance on on oil and fossil fuels.

結果就是，在那之後的幾年裡，全球減少了對石油和化石燃料的依賴。

It became much more energy efficient as a result.

So if there's a silver lining here, it could be that in the span of a few years or five years or a decade from now, this will help hasten the transition away from oil and away from fossil fuels and towards more green, sustainable energy.

所以如果說有什麼好處的話，那就是在未來幾年、五年或十年後，這將有助於加速擺脫石油和化石燃料，轉向更多綠色、永續能源的轉型。

All right, now that's actually an interesting point.

好的，這確實是個有趣的觀點。

You mentioned the energy Crisis in the 1970s, and

some commentators here in Germany have speculated that if the conflict were to continue, we could see a similar energy crisis.

德國這邊的一些評論家也猜測，如果衝突持續下去，我們可能會看到類似的能源危機。

Do you agree with that fears or with those fears, rather?

And the big reason why oil has been disrupted is because tankers are not willing to try their luck through the strait.

石油供應受到幹擾的主要原因是因為油輪不願意冒險通過海峽。

They're not willing to go through the strait without some kind of military escort.

他們不願意在沒有某種軍事護衛的情況下通過海峽。

The United States has been somewhat coy this.

美國在這方面一直有點含糊其辭。

They've said that they'll help ships in the strait, but then they haven't.

他們說會幫助海峽裡的船隻，但實際上並沒有。

Militarily, it's a very difficult problem.

軍事上，這是一個非常難解決的問題。

If you try to protect shipping through the strait, it would put a lot of American military assets in harm's way, and

如果你試圖保護海峽的航運，那會讓很多美軍資產身處險境，

you could see major casualties as a result of that.

而且，你可能會是以看到重大傷亡。

That said, in past conflicts in the Gulf, during the Iran Iraq war, for instance, neutral shipping was attacked.

不過，在過去海灣的衝突中，例如兩伊戰爭期間，中立船運也曾遭到攻擊。

Yet shippers kept shipping oil out of the Persian Gulf and out of the Strait of Hormuz, and

但運輸業者仍然持續將石油運出波斯灣和荷姆茲海峽，

保險公司用不同的方式來評估風險。

At higher rates of insurance, it's possible that that could happen.

在保費更高的情況下，這種情況是有可能發生的。

Now, it certainly doesn't look very good for that outcome.

現在看來，這個結果一點也不樂觀。

And, you know, in an age where we can all see images of oil tankers burning on our social media, it does seem that the capacity or the willingness to accept risk in the market might be lower than it was in the 1980s.

而且，你知道的，在這個我們都能在社群媒體上看到油輪燃燒畫面的時代，市場承擔風險的能力或意願，似乎比 1980 年代要低了。

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伊朗威脅波斯灣國家能源設施！｜DW新聞 (Iran threatens Gulf states‘ energy facilities | DW News)

strategy

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infrastructure