Name: 俄羅斯如何從美以與伊朗的戰爭中獲利？| 全球新聞Podcast (How does Russia profit from the US-Israel war with Iran? | Global News Podcast)
Uploaded: 2026-03-14T23:05:57.000Z
Duration: 11 min

Welcome to the BBC's Global News podcast on YouTube.

歡迎來到 BBC 在 YouTube 上的全球新聞 Podcast。

And today we're looking at whether the biggest winner from the war in Iran could be not Israel, not the U.S.

今天我們要探討的是，這場在伊朗的戰爭，最大的贏家會不會是俄羅斯，而不是以色列或美國。

Well, we're joined from Kyiv by our diplomatic correspondent, James Landell.

我們連線在基輔的我們外交事務記者 James Landell。

And James, analysts are claiming that the oil price shock is benefiting Russia.

James，分析師們聲稱，油價衝擊對俄羅斯有利。

Well, yeah, that's clearly right because, you know, Russia's economy is substantially dependent on its energy sales.

嗯，這說法沒錯，因為你知道，俄羅斯的經濟很大程度上依賴能源銷售。

In particular the sale of crude oil that has been heavily restricted in recent years by two things.

特別是原油的銷售，近年來受到兩件事的嚴重限制。

One, by economic sanctions from the international community following Russia's full scale invasion of this country, but

第一，是國際社會因為俄羅斯對這個國家全面入侵而實施的經濟制裁，但是

also because of the largely depressed oil price.

And that meant Russia was suffering economically.

這意味著俄羅斯在經濟上遭受了損失。

As we've seen in recent days, the price of oil has rocketed and as a result, Russia is benefiting substantially.

正如我們最近幾天看到的，油價飆升，結果俄羅斯大大受益。

President Zelensky in a news conference said that he reckoned that so far Russia was benefiting about, you know, sort of $10 billion already because of the change in the oil price.

澤倫斯基總統在記者會上表示，他認為到目前為止，由於油價的變動，俄羅斯已經受益了大約，你知道，差不多 100 億美元。

So clearly, you know, the Russians at the moment, you know, are making the most of it because their financial public finances were not in a great state, but

所以很明顯，你知道，俄羅斯人現在正在好好利用這個機會，因為他們的公共財政狀況並不好，但是

they are clearly benefiting from these price changes.

他們顯然從這些價格變動中獲益。

So, James, what could this mean for the war in Ukraine?

那麼，James，這對烏克蘭戰爭意味著什麼？

Well, in practical terms, it just means that Russia can carry on for longer.

嗯，從實際角度來看，這意味著俄羅斯可以持續更久。

It can buy more and build more drones, it can buy and build more missiles.

它可以購買更多並製造更多無人機，它可以購買並製造更多飛彈。

It can continue to pay very large bonuses trying to persuade young men from distant parts of Russia to sign up to its so called meat grinder of an army at the moment, because it's losing, remember, roughly on average, about 1,000 men and women a day in casualties, both killed and wounded.

它可以繼續支付非常豐厚的獎金，試圖說服來自俄羅斯遙遠地區的年輕人加入他們所謂的絞肉機軍隊，因為請記住，他們每天大約損失 1,000 名男女的傷亡，包括陣亡和受傷。

So all of that money will go to help that at the moment because Russia's financial problems have been so severe in recent months.

所以所有這些錢都將用於幫助這一切，因為俄羅斯近幾個月來的財政問題非常嚴重。

Russia's had to sell off some of its gold reserves.

俄羅斯不得不賣掉一些黃金儲備。

It's had to increase consumption taxes like VAT and things like that.

它不得不增加像增值稅之類的消費稅。

There'll be much less pressure on Russia to do that because it's making more from its oil sales.

俄羅斯在這方面的壓力會小很多，因為它的能源銷售收入更高了。

So to a certain extent, it definitely eases pressure on Russia and makes it less likely that Russia feels under any pressure whatsoever to end this conflict, especially now that the US Is loosening the sanctions that were imposed on Russian oil.

所以在某種程度上，這絕對減輕了俄羅斯的壓力，也讓俄羅斯不太可能感受到任何結束這場衝突的壓力，尤其是現在美國正在放寬對俄羅斯石油的制裁。

And the diplomatic efforts to try to end the war in Ukraine appear to have been put on the back burner.

而試圖結束烏克蘭戰爭的外交努力似乎已經被擱置了。

The American decision to ease partially some of the sanctions on Russia will be another boost for Russia because not only are they benefiting from the high oil price, they can.

美國決定部分放寬對俄羅斯的制裁，這將是俄羅斯的另一個助力，因為他們不僅從高油價中獲益，他們還可以。

They can potentially sell more of their oil.

And that means that, yes, while these talks may or may not continue, we don't know when they're going to restart.

這意味著，是的，雖然這些會談可能會繼續也可能不會，我們也不知道它們什麼時候會重新開始。

The world's attention is very much on the Middle east, for obvious reasons at the moment.

目前，全世界的注意力都集中在中東，這是有明顯原因的。

But at the moment, most people, most analysts look at those talks and they believe that they're largely performative.

但目前，大多數人，大多數分析師看待這些會談，他們認為這些會談很大程度上只是做做樣子。

One diplomat I spoke to the other day said, you know, it's pure theater for an audience of one, namely Donald Trump.

一位我前幾天聊過的 વાર્તાકાર 說，你知道，這完全是演給一個人看的戲，那就是唐納·川普。

Both sides, the Russians and the Ukrainians, carrying on with the talks so that they do not incur the wrath of the United States.

雙方，俄羅斯和烏克蘭，都繼續進行會談，這樣他們就不會惹惱美國。

As a result of the changing economic circumstances and global distraction, I think that's even less likely that we're going to end up getting any kind of a deal soon.

由於不斷變化的經濟狀況和全球的注意力轉移，我認為我們很快就會達成任何協議的可能性就更小了。

這對歐洲來說都非常令人擔憂。

President Zelensky is in Paris today for talks with President Macron.

澤倫斯基總統今天在巴黎與馬克宏總統會談。

The Europeans have refused to unlock frozen Russian assets that are held in European jurisdictions.

歐洲人拒絕解凍存放在歐洲管轄區內的俄羅斯資產。

The Europeans have failed to agree on that.

They could make a different decision and give all of that, some of that money to Ukraine.

他們可以做出不同的決定，將這些錢中的一部分或全部給烏克蘭。

The Europeans also promised to raise some of their own money, 90 billion euros.

歐洲人也承諾會自己籌措一部分資金，也就是900億歐元。

They've promised that to the Ukrainians, but that's held up because of a row with Hungary.

他們向烏克蘭人做出了這個承諾，但因為跟匈牙利吵架而卡住了。

The one sort of shaft of light for the Ukrainians at the moment is this, which is Ukraine is perhaps the world's foremost developer and user of cheap air defenses at the moment.

對烏克蘭人來說，目前唯一一線希望是，烏克蘭可能是目前世界上最頂尖的廉價防空系統開發者和使用者。

And the world is coming knocking on Ukraine's door, asking for help.

全世界都來敲烏克蘭的門，尋求幫助。

The Gulf, Europeans, even the United States, saying, how do we defend against these Iranian drones?

像是波斯灣國家、歐洲人，甚至是美國，都在問，我們要如何防禦這些伊朗無人機？

And that is something that Ukrainians are using to get into that conversation.

這也是烏克蘭人正在利用來參與對話的籌碼。

You know, we can make some money from this.

你知道的，我們可以從中賺點錢。

We can make some more allies in the Gulf, which has largely been neutral in this war.

我們可以跟波斯灣國家交到更多朋友，他們在這場戰爭中大多保持中立。

But above all, keep Ukraine part of the conversation, keep it relevant.

但最重要的是，讓烏克蘭持續在對話中佔有一席之地，讓它保持重要性。

And I think that's something that I think will be a central part of the talks that President Zelensky is having with his European counterparts at the moment.

我認為這會是澤倫斯基總統目前跟歐洲各國領袖談判的核心重點。

And to that end, Ukraine has dispatched experts to the Gulf states to.

為此，烏克蘭已經派遣專家到波斯灣國家。

To help them defend themselves against the Iranian counterattacks.

Yeah, I mean, these experts are not actually, you know, doing any defending themselves.

對，我的意思是，這些專家其實並沒有真的在做任何防禦工作。

These are people who know about cheap interceptor drones.

這些人是瞭解便宜的攔截無人機的專家。

They have to be fitted into military structures.

You've got to have data that's transferred between different locations.

你必須要有在不同地點之間傳輸的數據。

There's an awful lot of things that need to be sorted before you get these drones and you stick them up into the sky and you try and destroy incoming Iranian attack drones.

在把這些無人機送上天空、試圖摧毀來襲的伊朗攻擊無人機之前，還有好多事情需要處理。

So those are the conversations that have been had at the moment.

所以，這就是目前正在進行的對話。

But here in Kyiv, there's a real balance to be struck.

但在基輔這裡，確實需要取得一個平衡。

On the one hand, the Ukrainians want to sell all these and make some money and, as I say, win some friends in the Gulf.

一方面，烏克蘭人想把這些都賣掉賺點錢，就像我說的，在波斯灣交些朋友。

But equally, the government here does not want to leave itself open to the accusation that it is selling the shop, giving so many interceptors to the Gulf that it leaves these skies vulnerable.

但同時，這裡的政府也不想被指責「賣掉家當」，把太多攔截器賣給波斯灣國家，讓自家天空變得脆弱。

I think we need to differentiate between two things here.

我認為我們需要在這裡區分兩件事。

Cheap interceptor drones that cost, you know, $1,000 plus Ukraine can produce these and is producing them row after row.

便宜的攔截無人機，成本大概一千美元，烏克蘭可以而且正在大量生產這些。

They will be able to substantially scale up production and sell that to whoever wants to buy it in the Middle East.

他們將能夠大幅提高產量，並賣給任何在中東想買的人。

The difficulty are the much more expensive, bigger air defense missiles.

困難在於那些貴得多的、大型的防空飛彈。

Some of these missiles, the Patriot missiles and things like that, they cost upwards of 3,4 million dollars.

這些飛彈，像是愛國者飛彈之類的，要價高達三百到四百萬美元。

Hundreds of them have been fired off in recent weeks in the Gulf, leaving a global scarcity that Ukraine and others had not been anticipating.

最近幾週，波灣地區發射了數百枚，造成全球短缺，這是烏克蘭和其他國家沒有預料到的。

And that is the fear that Ukraine has that it now finds itself harder to get those patriots because other countries will say, we haven't got enough.

這就是烏克蘭的擔憂，因為其他國家會說，我們不夠用了，所以烏克蘭現在發現取得愛國者飛彈變得更困難。

They're not producing enough because they cost a lot.

他們生產的數量不夠，因為成本很高。

They take a huge amount of effort to produce.

他們需要花費大量的精力來生產。

And I think that's where the Ukrainian concern is, which is why President Zelensky is saying, look, we'll give you our interceptors, but

我認為這就是烏克蘭的擔憂所在，這也是為什麼澤倫斯基總統會說，看，我們會提供我們的攔截飛彈，但是

in return, we want some more Patriots because those are the missiles that they need to defend these skies from the devastating Russian missiles that come in and cause so much wreckage and devastation.

作為交換，我們想要更多愛國者飛彈，因為這些是他們需要的飛彈，用來防禦天空，抵擋俄羅斯毀滅性的飛彈，這些飛彈會飛進來造成巨大的破壞和毀滅。

By starting this war in Iran, has the US Lost the moral high ground?

美國發動這場伊朗戰爭，是否就失去了道德制高點？

Well, I imagine it's a matter for debate about whether or not the United States is starting from a position of being in the moral high ground.

嗯，我猜這是一個值得討論的問題，關於美國是否從道德制高點開始。

I think what is significant here is that the argument that the international community, and

我認為這裡比較關鍵的是，國際社會，

by that I mean largely the west, that is Europe, and

我指的是主要是西方國家，也就是歐洲，以及

the United States, has been that Russia in this country was in the wrong because it had breached international borders, it had disrupted the territorial integrity of Ukraine and challenged its sovereignty by invading in a way that we haven't seen since the Second World War.

美國，一直以來認為俄羅斯在這個國家是錯的，因為它侵犯了國際邊界，破壞了烏克蘭的領土完整，並透過自第二次世界大戰以來未曾見過的入侵方式挑戰其主權。

In other words, this was not just a decision that was bad for Western security.

換句話說，這不只是一個對西方安全不利的決定。

It was against international law, and thus, thus immoral.

這是違反國際法的，是以，是以是不道德的。

And so the United States, by launching an unprovoked attack on Iran in a way that many international lawyers would say is wholly in breach of international law, means that it's harder for the United States to point the finger at Russia and say, look, what you've done in Ukraine is wrong.

所以，美國發動對伊朗的無端攻擊，許多國際律師會說這完全違反國際法，這使得美國更難指責俄羅斯說，看，你在烏克蘭所做的事情是錯的。

My own view, I think my own assessment would be, is that we're slightly beyond those arguments four years into this war, since the full scale invasion, that actually people aren't debating first principles anymore.

我個人的看法，我認為我個人的評估是，戰爭打了四年，自全面入侵以來，我們已經稍微超越了這些爭論，實際上人們不再爭論基本原則了。

They're now debating how do they bring this conflict to an end, how do you put more pressure on Russia so that the Kremlin gets into a position where it thinks that it cannot further its aims through further violence.

他們現在正在討論如何結束這場衝突，如何對俄羅斯施加更多壓力，讓克里姆林宮陷入那種認為無法透過進一步暴力來達成目標的處境。

Because at the moment, the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, believe that they can continue to make gains by continuing combat.

因為目前，克里姆林宮、普丁總統認為他們可以透過持續戰鬥來取得進展。

And until that changes, I think the situation is unlikely to change.

而且，除非情況改變，否則我認為局勢不太可能改變。

And finally, we've talked a lot about the benefits for Russia.

最後，我們談了很多關於俄羅斯的利益。

But doesn't Moscow look weak in not coming to the help of allies like Iran or Venezuela before it?

但是，莫斯科沒有及時幫助伊朗或委內瑞拉等盟友，難道看起來不像是很軟弱嗎？

Well, yeah, this is the narrative that says, look, slowly but surely, Vladimir Putin's allies are being removed, displaced, going somewhere else.

嗯，是的，這就是那種說法：看，普丁總統的盟友正慢慢地、確切地被移除、取代，去了別的地方。

President Assad is now hiding in Moscow somewhere.

阿薩德總統現在就藏在莫斯科的某個地方。

Venezuela has had a change of leadership because of the American action there and now Iran.

由於美國在那裡的行動，委內瑞拉已經更換了領導層，現在輪到伊朗了。

But I think what that does is that kind of, it mischaracterizes the nature of the relationship.

但我認為，這樣做反而誤解了這種關係的本質。