Name: 股神巴菲特正在為美國經濟「大崩潰」做準備？！ (Warren Buffett is Preparing for a Total Collapse of The US Economy)
Uploaded: 2026-03-10T18:05:44.000Z
Duration: 17 min 40 s

Here is how Warren Buffett has been preparing for the invasion of Iran.

這就是 Warren Buffett 如何為伊朗入侵做準備。

轉承詞

It seems like Warren Buffett couldn't possibly know that there is a war, because the United States has surprisingly launched this war, and

看起來 Warren Buffett 似乎不可能知道會有戰爭，因為美國竟然出乎意料地發動了這場戰爭，而且

But if you look at what Warren Buffett has been doing lately, over the last five, seven years, he perfectly positioned himself to win from this war.

但如果你看看 Warren Buffett 最近這五、七年來的動作，他完美地為自己佈局，從這場戰爭中獲利。

And Warren Buffett has a history of predicting crushes and massively taking advantage out of them.

而且 Warren Buffett 有預測危機並從中大賺一筆的歷史。

For example, in 2008, Warren Buffett was the richest person in the world because when the US Economy collapsed, he was the only person with tens of billions of dollars.

例如，在 2008 年，Warren Buffett 是世界上最有錢的人，因為當美國經濟崩潰時，他是唯一一個擁有數百億美元的人。

And he purchased these banks at a huge discount, which made him the world's wealthiest person.

他以極低的價格收購了這些銀行，這讓他成為世界上最富有的人。

And going back to early 2000s, how could Warren Buffett predict the 2008 financial crisis?

回到 2000 年代初期，Warren Buffett 怎麼可能預測到 2008 年的金融危機？

And this time he also predicted the US Iran war.

而這一次，他也預測到了美伊戰爭。

The war is basically becoming a huge regional war.

這場戰爭基本上正在演變成一場巨大的區域戰爭。

And it seems like this war is going to last for a very long time.

而且這場戰爭似乎會持續非常長的時間。

So on one side, you have the United States and the countries that support the US where the US has military bases all across this part of the world against Iran.

所以一方面，你有美國以及支持美國的國家，美國在這個地區擁有軍事基地，對抗伊朗。

Now, every single war has winners and losers.

現在，每一場戰爭都有贏家和輸家。

Some people are going to make a lot of money, and

some people are going to lose a lot of money.

And that's why they say that a war is a massive transfer of wealth.

這就是為什麼他們說戰爭是財富的大規模轉移。

So if you know how to, to invest and you know which assets to buy during a war, you will emerge victorious.

所以，如果你知道如何投資，並且知道在戰爭期間要購買哪些資產，你就會脫穎而出。

In this particular war, oil prices have already surged to over $100.

在這場特別的戰爭中，油價已經飆升到每桶 100 美元以上。

And if this war is going to continue, then oil prices could cross even $200 within a month, or maybe two.

如果這場戰爭繼續下去，油價可能在一個月內，甚至兩個月內突破 200 美元。

Because this part of the world is responsible for 20% of the global supply of oil.

因為這個地區供應了全球 20% 的石油。

And because the Strait of Hormuz, which is this part of the world, is, is closed by Iran, which is.

而且因為荷姆茲海峽，也就是這個地區，被伊朗關閉了。

Which means that now there is a shortage of oil in the world, which is why oil prices have risen so much.

這意味著現在全球石油短缺，這就是為什麼油價會漲這麼多。

So oil companies right now are making more money than ever.

所以現在石油公司賺的錢比以往任何時候都多。

我們來看看 2019 年的 Warren Buffett。

He invests $10 billion in Occidental Petroleum.

他投資了 100 億美元在 Occidental Petroleum。

This is very strange because in 2019, the world was talking about renewable energy.

這很奇怪，因為 2019 年時，大家都在談論再生能源。

The rest of the world is moving into renewable energy.

世界其他地方都在轉向再生能源。

And it seemed like buying oil was a failed strategy.

而且當時買石油似乎是個失敗的策略。

The global economy goes into Covid and oil prices go below zero.

全球經濟陷入 Covid，油價跌破零。

For the first time in history, we had negative oil prices.

And yet Warren Buffett buys Dominion Energy.

然而 Warren Buffett 卻買了 Dominion Energy。

So why is Warren Buffett buying so much oil?

那 Warren Buffett 為什麼要買這麼多石油？

In 2024, he purchased the remaining 20% in Berkshire Hathaway's energy department.

2024 年，他買下了 Berkshire Hathaway 能源部門剩餘的 20%。

It's worth about a trillion dollars and it has different departments.

它的市值大約是一兆美元，而且有很多不同的部門。

And in the Energy Department, 20% of that was owned by other investors.

而在能源部門裡，有 20% 是由其他投資者持有的。

Warren Buffett 在 2024 年買了這些。

He also buys more of Occidental Petroleum in 2025, which is literally a year ago.

他在 2025 年也買了更多 Occidental Petroleum，這其實是一年前的事。

In 2026, he buys Oxcam, which is a chemical company that refines oil.

2026 年，他買了 Oxcam，這是一家煉油的化學公司。

So basically, he spends most of his money, or not most of his money, but

所以基本上，他花了大部分的錢，或者說不是大部分的錢，而是

billions of dollars over the last couple of years just buying oil companies because he knew that there is a crisis coming in the Middle east and it's going to lead oil prices to rise.

在過去幾年裡，他花了數十億美元來收購石油公司，因為他知道中東即將發生危機，這會導致油價上漲。

The United States does not need Middle Eastern oil.

But if global oil prices rise, then these companies are going to make a lot of money.

但如果全球油價上漲，這些公司就會賺大錢。

The second largest winners out of this war are insurance companies.

這場戰爭的第二大贏家是保險公司。

The global world is interconnected and ships go through one part of the world to another.

全球世界是相互連結的，船隻會從世界的一個地方航行到另一個地方。

So for example, the oil tankers that go from Middle east and they have to go to the European Union or to Asian countries where they supply them with oil, they need to buy insurance.

所以，舉例來說，那些從中東出發，要運送到歐洲聯盟或亞洲國家供應石油的油輪，就需要購買保險。

But because right now this is a war zone, insurance prices have spiked to the roof.

但是因為現在這裡是戰區，保險價格已經飆升到天價。

But this is not just about the oil companies or the companies that need to ship oil.

但這不只是關於石油公司，或是需要運輸石油的公司。

Take any other company that relies on global shipping, for example, iPhones that are being manufactured in China, and

再舉例其他依賴全球運輸的公司，像是 iPhone 在中國製造，

they have a lot of pieces for global shipping.

它們有很多零件是透過全球運輸的。

So ships are moving from one part into another.

所以船隻會從一個地方移動到另一個地方。

And there is a very important part in the world that is called the Swiss Canal.

世界上有一個非常重要的水道叫做蘇伊士運河。

If you don't want to cross through the entire Africa and you want to cross that road, for example, through the Swiss Canal, then you have to go through the Red Sea.

如果你不想繞過整個非洲，想通過蘇伊士運河，那你就要經過紅海。

But the Red Sea is also a subject of a war zone right now, which means that insurance prices on ships are extremely expensive right now.

但紅海現在也是戰區的一部分，這意味著船隻的保險價格現在非常昂貴。

And guess what Warren Buffett has been doing lately.

猜猜 Warren Buffett 最近在做什麼。

In 2022, he spent $11.6 billion buying this insurance company.

2022 年，他花了 116 億美元買了這家保險公司。

In 2018, he spent $2.5 billion buying this insurance company.

2018 年，他花了 25 億美元買了這家保險公司。

He also purchased the remaining of the Berkshire Hathaway's insurance department.

他也買下了 Berkshire Hathaway 保險部門的剩餘部分。

But you cannot just possibly insure any ship.

但你不能隨便幫任何船隻保險。

If you want to sell an insurance, then you need to have enough cash to back it up.

如果你想賣保險，你就需要有足夠的現金來支撐。

If you don't have the cash, then you can't sell insurance.

如果你沒現金，你就賣不了保險。

So the probability of ships being sank in this part of the world is huge, which means that now you're going to raise your prices on insurance, but

所以這區塊船隻沉沒的機率非常大，這意味著你要提高保險價格，但是

at the same time, you need more cash to insurance the exact same amount of ships.

同時，你需要更多現金來為相同數量的船隻保險。

Warren Buffett right now is sitting on $400 billion worth of cash, which means that he is probably the only company in the world or the only person in the world that can sell insurances to the ships that are crossing this part of the world, which him perfectly positioned to make billions of dollars out of this crisis.

Warren Buffett 現在坐擁 4000 億美元現金，這意味著他可能是世界上唯一一家公司或唯一一個人，能夠為行經這個區域的船隻提供保險，這讓他完美地處於能夠從這次危機中賺取數十億美元的位置。

So it's not a surprise that he has been massively investing in insurance companies.

所以他大力投資保險公司，這點一點也不讓人意外。

He also has purchased a stake in a precision caspot.

他也買進了一家精密鑄造公司的股份。

This is literally a defense company that sells very high technology to other defense companies that are building expensive and very advanced missiles.

這家公司簡直就是一家國防公司，賣給其他正在製造昂貴且非常先進飛彈的國防公司高科技產品。

So Warren Buffett is literally, right now, is a huge winner out of this war.

所以，Warren Buffett 現在真的是這場戰爭的最大贏家。

But if you want to perfectly position yourself, then you have to sell your losers.

但如果你想完美佈局，你就得賣掉你的輸家。

So who are the largest losers out of this war?

那麼，這場戰爭最大的輸家是誰呢？

為什麼 Apple 會是美國伊朗戰爭的輸家？

So this is a war primarily against China.

所以這場戰爭主要是針對中國。

Most of their sales comes outside the United States.

他們大部分的銷售額都來自美國以外的地區。

And iPhone has a lot of components, which means that most of these components comes from all across the globe to China.

而 iPhone 有很多零組件，這代表著這些零組件大部分都來自全球各地運到中國。

And they're being assembled in China and manufactured there and then shipped to the rest of the world, including the United States.

然後在中國組裝製造，再運送到包括美國在內的全世界。

Now, oil prices have risen substantially, which means that the cost of iPhones have risen.

現在，油價大幅上漲，這意味著 iPhone 的成本也跟著上漲。

Insurance companies or insurance prices have risen, which means that the cost of transporting them across the globe have also substantially risen.

保險公司或保險價格上漲，這意味著將它們運送到全球的成本也大幅上漲。

And because this part of the world also represents a huge chunk of Apple's clients, it means that Apple is one of the largest losers of this war.

而因為這個地區也佔了 Apple 客戶的很大一部分，這意味著 Apple 是這場戰爭最大的輸家之一。

That is why he slashed his stake in Apple by 75%.

這就是為什麼他將 Apple 的持股砍了 75%。

He also reduced his stake in Amazon by 77%.

他也將亞馬遜的持股減少了 77%。

Because Amazon is not just a website where you go and you just order stuff.

因為亞馬遜不只是一個你去訂購東西的網站。

亞馬遜是一家全球性的物流公司。

And a war is a logistical nightmare for any company that does logistics, because now the cost of fuel have risen substantially, the cost of insurance have risen substantially, and

而戰爭對任何從事物流的公司來說，都是一場物流的惡夢，因為現在燃料成本大幅上漲，保險成本也大幅上漲，

you're basically losing billions of dollars just because this war has happened.

你光是為了這場戰爭，就損失了數十億美元。

Warren Buffett has also entirely exited his airline businesses.

Warren Buffett 也完全退出了他的航空事業。

Right now he doesn't even hold a single airline.

現在他連一家航空公司都不持有。

And airlines are suffering the most because first of all, you can actually fly in this part of the world, which means that your costs extremely rise because of this war.

航空公司受創最嚴重，因為首先，你實際上可以在這個地區飛行，這意味著你的成本因為這場戰爭而極度上漲。

Secondly, the because oil prices have risen.

Now, if your business was already having very slim profits, imagine what happens right now, when energy prices double or maybe triple, he also exited all of his banks.

現在，如果你的生意本來利潤就很微薄，想像一下現在會發生什麼，當能源價格翻倍甚至三倍，他也退出了他所有的銀行。

He was a huge investor in JP Morgan, in Chase, in Morgan Stanley, but

他曾是 JP Morgan、Chase、Morgan Stanley 的大股東，但是

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股神巴菲特正在為美國經濟「大崩潰」做準備？！ (Warren Buffett is Preparing for a Total Collapse of The US Economy)

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crisis