Name: 歷來最高！Enten 剖析德州初選的大幅政治轉變！ ('Highest ever': Enten on TX primaries' massive political shifts)
Uploaded: 2026-03-04T16:33:57.000Z
Duration: 8 min 49 s

Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett conceded to James Talarico in the Democratic Senate primary there.

選區女議員 Jasmine Crockett 在德州的民主黨參議院初選中承認敗選給 James Talarico。

Notable because it was a hotly contested race and there were some questions about voting there.

這值得注意，因為這場競爭激烈，而且對那裡的投票有些疑問。

But she has now conceded, meaning he has a clear path all the way to November.

但她現在承認敗選，這意味著他一路通往十一月都有明確的路。

Not so clear on the Republican side where there is a runoff between Attorney General Ken Paxton and the incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn.

共和黨這邊就沒那麼清楚了，總檢察長 Ken Paxton 和現任共和黨參議員 John Cornyn 將進行決選。

So we'll see over the next three months who wins there.

所以我們接下來三個月會看到那邊誰會贏。

With us now, CNN Chief data analyst Harry Enten.

現在跟我們在一起的是 CNN 資料分析總監 Harry Enten。

That might not be the most important thing here.

The most important thing here might be who's voting, who is voting.

這裡最重要的可能是誰在投票，誰在投票。

And I would say the word to describe it for Democrats.

我會說用來形容民主黨的詞是。

德州民主黨參議院初選的投票率。

The highest ever, the highest ever was this primary.

有史以來最高，這次初選是史上最高的。

And that's only with 92% of the estimated voting that will climb ever higher.

這只是估計投票數的 92%，而且還會持續攀升。

The 2000's average was less than a million.

2000 年代的平均投票數不到一百萬。

They've more than doubled the average turnout for Texas Senate Democratic primaries.

他們的德州民主黨參議院初選平均投票率翻了一倍多。

This beats the old record which was 2.2 million.

這打破了之前 220 萬票的舊紀錄。

And that was in a presidential primary year between Obama and Clinton.

那是在歐巴馬和柯林頓之間的總統初選年。

As I said, the word to describe this is tremendous.

就像我說的，用來形容這一切的詞就是「驚人」。

I can't even believe it beat 2008, people, if you can remember back that far.

我簡直不敢相信這是 2008 年的人數，如果你還記得那麼久以前的話。

That was such an important race in Texas.

那是德州一場非常重要的選舉。

There's so much focus and there were still more people voting in this one than that one in 2008.

How about as a share of the people who voted overall, it's not just that this 2.3 million is such a large portion, the largest ever for a Texas Senate Democratic primary.

It's that more people voted in the Democratic primary than, than the Republican primary.

這次的關注度很高，而且這次投票的人數還是比 2008 年多。

就以整體投票人數的比例來看，這 230 萬票不僅是德州參議院民主黨初選中佔比最大、也是史上最多的。

If you look at the 2000s on average, you see this.

這表示這次民主黨初選的投票人數，比共和黨初選還多。

More people choose the Republican ballot than the Democratic ballot in midterm primaries by 60% to 40%, a margin of 3 to 2.

But look so far Democrats, more people are actually choosing the Democratic ballot.

但到目前為止，民主黨的選票實際上選擇了更多。

This is extremely, extremely unusual, 51% to 49%.

這非常、非常不尋常，51% 對 49%。

And so far there have actually been more of the Republican ballots estimated to be counted than Democrats.

而且到目前為止，估計點算的共和黨選票比民主黨還多。

所以這個差距可能會持續攀升。

And I will note that this was the last, this is the first time, the first time Democrats outvoted Republicans in a midterm primary season in Texas since 2002.

我得說，這是自 2002 年以來，德州期中選舉初選季中，民主黨首次投票人數多於共和黨。

So a lot of Democrats voting and more Democrats voting than Republicans.

所以很多民主黨人在投票，而且投票的民主黨人比共和黨人多。

正如我所說，對民主黨來說是個巨大的好消息。

And you said that has potential national implications because when something like this happens, it usually means the party that benefits every single midterm since 2006, the party that votes more in primaries win goes on to win the House of Representatives.

你說這有潛在的全國影響，因為當這種事情發生時，通常意味著自 2006 年以來每個期中選舉都受益的政黨，在初選中投票人數較多的那個政黨，就能贏得眾議院的席次。

And right now in Texas, a traditionally red state, more Democrats voting.

而現在在德州，一個傳統上是共和黨的州，卻有更多民主黨人在投票。

You transition that nationally, it's very likely that more Democrats be voting than Republicans in primary.

你把這個情況放到全國來看，民主黨在初選中的投票人數很可能會多於共和黨。

All right, let's talk about the Republican runoff between the incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Ken Paxton.

好的，我們來聊聊現任參議員約翰·康寧和肯·派克斯頓之間的共和黨決選。

They are headed to a runoff three months from now.

But what are the prediction markets saying?

Yeah, okay, you know, the two of them are going to a runoff.

是的，好的，你知道，他們兩位將會進入決選。

Paxton, Cornyn, what are the prediction markets say cashier prediction market in terms of who is going to actually win that runoff.

派克斯頓、康寧，預測市場對於誰將贏得這次決選有什麼看法？

I mean, this is as close as you basically can get.54% chance for Ken Paxton, despite at this point having fewer votes in the initial round than John Cornyn, incumbent, a 44% chance.

意思是，這已經是差不多最接近的結果了。肯·派克斯頓有 54% 的機率，儘管在這個階段，他在初選中的得票數比現任的約翰·康寧少，後者有 44% 的機率。

But really this is as close as it can be.

It's going to be a knockout drag out fight over the next few months that ultimately may come down to one man.

未來幾個月將會是一場你死我活的激烈纏鬥，最終可能取決於一個人。

Donald John Trump, who he gets behind, that can make the difference.

唐納·約翰·川普，他支持誰，這可能會造成差異。

But at this point, I mean, these two are going to be going together like old boxers.

但在這個階段，我的意思是，這兩個人會像老拳擊手一樣纏鬥在一起。

And it could very much help the Democrats chance in the fall if in fact there's some really bad blood left.

如果真的留下一些嚴重的恩怨，這將非常有利於民主黨在秋季的機會。

If it helps the Democratic chances, what does that do to the overall odds in the U. S.

如果這對民主黨的機會有幫助，那對美國的整體機率有什麼影響？

This is just a segment which is just great news for Democrats.

這只是對民主黨來說是個好消息的片段。

I mean, the, this is, I think the biggest change that we have seen in the national picture, which was all along we thought that the Democrats would win back the House of Representatives.

我的意思是，這是我認為我們在全國局勢中看到的最大變化，一直以來我們都認為民主黨會贏回眾議院。

But at this point, look at this, look at the change in odds from a year ago.

但在這個階段，看看這個，看看一年來機率的變化。

Republicans had an 81% chance a year ago.

Democrats chances way up to a 44% chance.

Republicans have not just for the House, which are likely to lose, but for the Senate as well.

共和黨不只眾議院可能輸掉，參議院也一樣。

That is a big change, Harry, and great to have you back and you're tremendous.

這真是個大轉變，Harry，很高興你回來了，你太棒了。

There will be a runoff between Republican incumbent Senator John Cornyn and the state's attorney general Ken Paxton.

共和黨現任參議員John Cornyn和該州總檢察長Ken Paxton將進行決選。

They both failed to get 50% of the vote in the Senate primary.

他們兩人在參議院初選中都未能獲得50%的選票。

So this sets up what could be a bruising battle over the next three months.

這就預示著接下來三個月可能會有一場艱苦的戰役。

I refuse to to allow a flawed, self centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we've worked so hard to build over these many years.

我拒絕讓像 Ken Paxton 這樣有缺陷、以自我為中心且不知羞恥的候選人，冒著我們多年來辛勤建立的一切的風險。

John Cornyn has failed us time and time again in his over 40 years of office.

John Cornyn 在他超過 40 年的任期內一次又一次地讓我們失望。

You cannot name one single accomplishment that he's done to help the state of Texas.

你無法說出他為德州做出的任何一項有益的成就。

And the winner will face state lawmaker James Talarico, who won the Democratic primary overnight, defeating Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett.

勝者將面對州議員 James Talarico，他昨晚贏得了民主黨初選，擊敗了選區女議員 Jasmine Crockett。

Control of the Senate could be at stake here.

參議院的控制權可能就掌握在這裡。

德州的這場競選可能是一個轉捩點。

Let's get right to CNN's Arlette Saenz after a long night in Dallas.

經過在達拉斯漫長的一夜後，讓我們直接連線 CNN 的 Arlette Saenz。