Name: 伊朗核武計畫的演變真相！ (How Iran's nuclear program has evolved)
Uploaded: 2026-02-27T23:03:33.000Z
Duration: 5 min 5 s

基礎被動語態

Iran and the US are set to continue nuclear talks this week in Geneva as President Trump weighs a potential military action in Iran.

伊朗和美國本週將在日內瓦繼續核談判，川普總統正在權衡是否對伊朗採取軍事行動。

Iran's nuclear program dates back decades, to the days when it was a US ally.

伊朗的核計畫可以追溯到幾十年前，當時它還是美國盟友的時候。

In the 1960s, the US gave Iran a small research reactor, but

在 1960 年代，美國曾給伊朗一個小型研究反應爐，但

after ties were broken following Iran's revolution, its Islamic regime started acquiring nuclear technology in secret, including centrifuges to enrich uranium, according to the International Atomic energy agency, or IAEA.

在伊朗革命後關係破裂，根據國際原子能總署（IAEA）的說法，其伊斯蘭政權開始祕密獲取核技術，包括用於濃縮鈾的離心機。

In 2002, an anti regime group alleged that Iran had secretly built a pair of nuclear facilities, while US Intelligence assessed that Iran halted efforts to develop nuclear weapons in 2003.

2002 年，一個反政權組織聲稱伊朗祕密建造了一對核設施，而美國情報部門評估伊朗在 2003 年停止了開發核武器的努力。

Iran later resumed enriching uranium and faced years of sanctions as a result.

伊朗後來恢復濃縮鈾，並是以面臨多年的制裁。

In 2015, the Obama administration and other global powers struck an agreement with Iran to limit its nuclear program, with IAEA inspectors allowed in to verify its compliance.

2015 年，歐巴馬政府和其他全球大國與伊朗達成協議，限制其核計畫，並允許國際原子能總署檢查員進入以核實其遵守情況。

Known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the deal capped its uranium stockpiles for 15 years and enrichment capacity for 10 years in exchange for sanctions relief.

這項協議被稱為《聯合全面行動計畫》，在 15 年內限制了其鈾儲量，並在 10 年內限制了濃縮能力，以換取制裁減免。

The deal had a so called snapback mechanism allowing the UN Security Council to reimpose sanctions if Iran violated the deal.

該協議有一個所謂的「快速恢復」機制，允許聯合國安理會在伊朗違反協議時重新實施制裁。

After the IAEA certified Iran was complying, the U.S.

在國際原子能總署認證伊朗遵守協議後，美國

and European nations unfroze about $100 billion worth of Iranian assets.

並且凍結了約 1000 億美元的伊朗資產。

But in 2018, President Trump withdrew the U.S.

但在 2018 年，川普總統退出了美國

from that deal, calling it horrible and one sided and imposed new sanctions, dubbing it a maximum pressure campaign demanding that Iran accept a stricter nuclear deal and end its support for groups like Hezbollah.

的協議，稱其為糟糕且單方面的協議，並實施了新的制裁，稱之為「最大壓力運動」，要求伊朗接受更嚴格的核協議，並停止支持像真主黨這樣的組織。

The Biden administration and European parties tried to revive the deal but weren't successful.

拜登政府和歐洲各方試圖恢復該協議，但未能成功。

Since then, Iran has stopped abiding by the terms of that agreement, including by enriching uranium to 60% purity for the first time, according to the IAEA, which is a technical step away from from weapons grade level.

自那以來，根據國際原子能總署的說法，伊朗已停止遵守該協議的條款，包括首次將鈾濃縮到 60% 的純度，這在技術上已接近武器級別。

Last June's airstrikes targeted Iran's Fordo and Natanz enrichment facilities and a research site near the city of Isfahan.

去年六月的空襲目標是伊朗的福爾多和納坦茲濃縮設施，以及伊斯法罕市附近的一個研究基地。

It's not clear how much the strikes damaged Iran's nuclear program.

目前尚不清楚這些襲擊對伊朗核計畫造成了多大損害。

Iran downplayed the impact but has not allowed any independent inspections.

伊朗淡化了影響，但並未允許任何獨立檢查。

It's also not clear how long it would take Iran to build a bomb.

目前也不清楚伊朗需要多長時間才能製造出核彈。

CBS News has previously reported that one intelligence summary released last May estimated it could take Iran probably less than a week to produce enough weapons grade uranium to make its first, while another intelligence report from last year projected it could take between three to eight months to make a nuclear device.

CBS 新聞先前曾報導，去年五月發布的一份情報摘要估計，伊朗可能不到一週就能生產出足夠的武器級鈾來製造其第一枚核彈，而去年的另一份情報報告則預計可能需要三到八個月的時間才能製造出核裝置。

Now President Trump says he wants to negotiate a new nuclear deal with the threat of another attack on Iran if it doesn't comply.

現在川普總統表示，他想協商新的核協議，並威脅若伊朗不遵守，將再次攻擊伊朗。

Mona Yakubian 現在加入我們的行列。

She's the director and senior adviser of the Middle East Program at the center for Strategic and International Studies.

她是戰略與國際研究中心中東計畫的主任兼資深顧問。

So last night President Trump cited Iran's nuclear program as a threat after previously saying its nuclear facilities were obliterated following last June's attack.

所以昨晚川普總統在先前表示，去年六月的攻擊後，伊朗的核設施已被摧毀，現在卻又將伊朗的核計畫列為威脅。

Is it about the protesters or regime change?

這是關於抗議者還是政權更迭？

I mean, I think last night the president really was not able to offer significantly more clarity on what kinds of objectives the US has in mind should it choose to undertake military action against Iran.

我的意思是，我認為昨晚總統確實無法更清楚地說明，如果美國選擇對伊朗採取軍事行動，美國會有哪些目標。

He laid down three different types of accusations against Iran.

他對伊朗提出了三種不同的指控。

He talked about Iran potentially seeking to restart its nuclear program.

他談到伊朗可能會尋求重啟核計畫。

He talked about Iran having ambitions to build missiles that could reach the United States.

他談到伊朗有野心製造能打到美國的飛彈。

And he also mentioned Iran's role in the past during the US War in Iraq in which Iranian backed militias built very powerful IEDs that led to thousands of Americans being killed.

他也提到了伊朗過去在美國伊拉克戰爭中的角色，當時伊朗支持的民兵製造了非常強大的爆炸裝置，導致數千名美國人喪生。

So he laid all of those different rationales down, but

所以他提出了所有這些不同的理由，但是

he didn't really provide a compelling case for what direction the US Is going to go in and what the American people should expect should the US Launch another military strike on Iran.

他並沒有真正提出一個令人信服的論點，說明美國將走向哪個方向，以及如果美國再次對伊朗發動軍事打擊，美國人民應該有什麼樣的預期。

CBS News has learned that the president is frustrated with the limited military options his team has presented to him.

CBS新聞獲悉，總統對他的團隊提出的有限軍事選項感到沮喪。

He's been told that any strike on Tehran would almost certainly not be a singular decisive blow.

他被告知，任何對德黑蘭的打擊幾乎肯定不會是單一決定性的打擊。

How might a prolonged conflict impact the region?

長期的衝突可能會如何影響該地區？

You know, there's the potential, for example, that there is spillover, that Iran goes after neighboring Gulf countries, certainly US Military assets and bases in Gulf countries, but

你知道，例如，有可能會發生外溢效應，伊朗攻擊鄰近的海灣國家，當然還有美國在海灣國家的軍事資產和基地，但是

potentially in order to inflict more harm, even start to go after energy infrastructure in neighboring countries, as Iran has done in the past, Iran could also and likely would attack U.S.

潛在的目的是造成更多傷害，甚至像伊朗過去那樣開始攻擊鄰國的能源基礎設施，伊朗也可能而且很可能會直接攻擊美國。

I think in this case, Iran is signaling that it is not interested in a limited tit for tat with the U.S.

我認為在這種情況下，伊朗正在發出信號，表明它對與美國進行有限的報復不感興趣。

if the U.S. chooses to strike Iran, Iran is seeking to impose costs on the United States.

如果美國選擇打擊伊朗，伊朗將試圖讓美國付出代價。

And this is the complexity that the president is facing should he decide to move forward.

這就是總統如果決定推進時所面臨的複雜情況。