Name: 伊朗人擔憂美、伊朗政權「骯髒協議」？ | DW 新聞 (Iranians fear 'dirty deal' between the US and Iran's Regime | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-02-18T17:21:45.000Z
Duration: 8 min 1 s

Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards stage naval drills.

伊朗精銳部隊革命衛隊舉行海軍演習。

A message to Washington as the US builds up its military presence in the region.

在美國增加該區域軍事部署之際，向華盛頓傳達訊息。

The USS Abraham Lincoln has been spotted off the coast of Oman.

羅斯福號航空母艦已在阿曼海岸附近現蹤。

Another aircraft carrier strike group is on the way to the Middle East.

另一支航空母艦打擊群正前往中東。

The build up prompting a warning from Iran's Supreme Leader.

此軍事集結引發伊朗最高領袖發出警告。

They keep saying we have sent warships towards Iran.

他們一直說我們派了戰艦前往伊朗。

Okay, of course a warship is a dangerous device, but

好的，戰艦當然是危險的裝置，但

more dangerous than that is a weapon that can send the warship deep under the sea.

比那更危險的是能將戰艦送入海底深處的武器。

Both sides flexing military muscle as a second round of nuclear talks took place in Geneva.

雙方都在展示軍事實力，因為第二輪核談判在日內瓦舉行。

Washington wants Iran to make a deal to limit its nuclear program or risk facing more U.S. attacks.

華盛頓希望伊朗能達成協議限制其核計畫，否則將面臨更多美軍攻擊。

Tehran says it won't make concessions without relief from crippling sanctions.

德黑蘭表示，若無解除嚴厲制裁，他們不會讓步。

Iran's foreign minister said the negotiations had made good progress.

伊朗外交部長表示，談判已取得良好進展。

we now have a clear picture of what needs to be done and what steps should follow.

我們現在對需要做什麼以及後續步驟有了清晰的瞭解。

Of course, both sides still hold positions that will take time to narrow, but

當然，雙方仍有需要時間縮小的立場，但

at least now we have a set of guiding principles and a clearer path to move forward on.

至少現在我們有了指導原則，以及更清晰的前進方向。

The threat of US military action has left ordinary Iranians on edge.

美軍行動的威脅讓普通伊朗人神經緊繃。

Given that Iran is isolated from the rest of the world, I think it would be much better if there's no conflict.

考量到伊朗與世界其他地方隔絕，我認為若沒有衝突會好得多。

Many here also have mixed feelings about the US making a deal with their country's theocratic leadership after it carried out a vicious crackdown on nationwide anti regime protests.

當然，許多人對於美國在伊朗這個神權領導人鎮壓全國反對政權的抗議活動後，還與他們國家達成協議，也感到心情複雜。

I think it's fair to assess that there is a clear majority in Iran who do not want to see any kind of dirty deal that would cement the reign of the Islamic Republic of the regime in Iran to the detriment of Iranian people, instance via sanctions relief that the rulers in Tehran, as they did in the past, would primarily use for their own purposes of regime stability and the projection of regime strength in the region.

我認為可以公平地評估，伊朗有絕大多數人不想看到任何一種骯髒的協議，這種協議會損害伊朗人民的利益，鞏固伊朗伊斯蘭共和國政權的統治，例如透過解除制裁，而德黑蘭的統治者就像過去一樣，會主要將這些用於自身政權穩定和在該地區投射政權實力的目的。

And anger with the Islamic Republic still visible.

而且對伊斯蘭共和國的憤怒依然顯而易見。

Even after the crackdown that killed thousands on Tuesday, protesters returned to the streets to demand regime change.

即使在造成數千人死亡的鎮壓之後，抗議者仍在週二重返街頭，要求政權變革。

And those no new protests we're seeing in Iran are marking 40 days, the traditional period of mourning for Muslims since the deadly crackdown against anti regime protests in January.

而我們在伊朗看到的新抗議活動，標誌著自一月鎮壓反對政權抗議活動以來，穆斯林傳統的哀悼期，即四十天。

Communication with people inside the Islamic Republic remains difficult.

與伊斯蘭共和國境內的人們溝通仍然困難。

But videos circulating on social media show large gatherings like this one at a cemetery in Abdanan, a city in western Iran where people are holding a memorial ceremony and shouting anti regime slogans like Death to Khamenei.

但社群媒體上流傳的影片顯示，像在伊朗西部城市阿卜達南（Abdanan）的一處墓地，有大型集會，人們正在舉行悼念儀式，並高喊「打倒哈米尼」等反對政權的口號。

Other videos recorded in the same location show security forces in armored Vehicles opening fire.

在同一地點錄製的其他影片顯示，裝甲車裡的 सुरक्षा forces 開槍。

Verification of these pictures is difficult, but

the news agency Reuters says the topography and layouts match satellite images.

路透社報導說，地形和佈局與衛星圖像相符。

Well, for more on this, let's bring in Sarah Bazubandi on the line.

好的，關於這件事，我們連線請教 Sarah Bazubandi。

She's a non resident research fellow at the Institute for Security Politics at Kiel University here in Germany.

她是德國基爾大學安全政治研究所的非常駐研究員。

Sarah, how do Iranians view these talks taking place now in Geneva?

Sarah，伊朗人怎麼看待目前在日內瓦舉行的這些談判？

Well, for the a segment of the society that are very unsympathetic and to increasing degree getting angry and more frustrated with the regime, especially since the latest crackdown and the mass killing of the Iranian protesters, they don't view these negotiations very favorably because in the eyes of those elements of the society, these are only going to sustain the rule of the Islamic Republic, which is what they not really wish for.

嗯，對於社會上一群非常不支持、而且越來越對政權感到憤怒和沮喪的民眾，特別是自從最近鎮壓和大規模殺害伊朗抗議者以來，他們並不看好這些談判，因為在這些社會群體的眼中，這些談判只會鞏固伊斯蘭共和國的統治，而這並不是他們真正想要的。

They have been calling for the downfall of this regime and basically they wanted to show to the regime and outside world that the regime has no legitimacy.

他們一直呼籲推翻這個政權，基本上是想向政權和外界表明，這個政權毫無合法性。

But these diplomatic tracks are a strong signal of return of legitimacy of the Islamic Republic.

但這些外交途徑卻是伊斯蘭共和國重拾合法性的強烈訊號。

There are signs now of fresh protests in Iran.

現在有跡象顯示伊朗出現了新的抗議活動。

If these protests develop further, could they influence negotiations between Iran and the US and depending on the regime's response, could the protests perhaps make military interference more likely?

如果這些抗議活動進一步發展，會不會影響伊朗和美國之間的談判？而根據政權的回應，這些抗議會不會讓軍事幹預的可能性增加？

Well, President Trump at the beginning of this episode loud and clear, stated that help is on its way.

嗯，川普總統在這個事件一開始就清楚地表示，援助正在路上。

And initially the US Administration mentioned at least on few occasions, that the violation of human rights and treatment of the protesters are one of the pillars of these negotiations.

而最初美國政府曾多次提到，侵犯人權以及對待抗議者的行為，是這些談判的基石之一。

Now, whether it's still the case or not, we really don't know.

現在，這是否仍然是這樣，我們真的不知道。

But I think the crackdown, this recent crackdown in parallel with negotiations with the United States has a, is a very strong signal that the state is trying to send to the citizens to in a sense, detach Iranian protesters from the United States and to signal that regardless of the initial claims of the United States, they are sitting down with us, they are negotiating with us and on the very same day we open fire on you.

但我認為，這次鎮壓，最近的鎮壓與美國的談判同時進行，這是一個非常強烈的訊號，表明國家正試圖向公民傳達一個訊息，也就是在某種程度上，將伊朗抗議者與美國劃清界線，並發出訊號說，無論美國最初的說詞是什麼，他們都在和我們坐下來談判，而且在同一天，我們卻對你們開槍。

So don't keep your hopes on the United States and its help because ultimately they are interested in cutting a deal with us.

所以，不要對美國及其援助抱有希望，因為最終他們有興趣的是和我們達成協議。

I think this is the clearest signal that they are trying to and to the people.

我認為這是他們試圖向人民傳達的最明確的訊號。

Well, Iranians are marking the 40 day mourning period for those killed in the recent uprising.

嗯，伊朗人正在紀念最近起義中喪生者的40天哀悼期。

Such mourning periods in Iran have played quite a significant role in the country's history, haven't they, Sarah?

這種哀悼期在伊朗的歷史上扮演了相當重要的角色，對吧，莎拉？

Traditionally this, you know, 40 days, 40th day of the mourning is an important day and it's, it seems that the regime has been prepared for another round of crackdown and they not only just sent security forces to the street as a show of power, but

傳統上，你知道，40天，哀悼的第40天是一個重要的日子，而且，看來政權已經準備好迎接新一輪的鎮壓，他們不僅僅是派出安全部隊上街以展示武力，而且

also, as your report mentioned, they opened fire on protesters inside a cemetery in the city of Abdonin, as you mentioned, and

另外，正如你的報導所提到的，他們在你提到的阿布多寧市的一處墓地裡，對抗議者開了槍，

there are several other parts of the country that the crackdown continued.

全國其他地方也有好幾個地方鎮壓行動持續著。

They're raiding people's mourning after losing loved ones, after killing their loved ones.

他們闖入人們悼念失去親人的場合，在他們殺害了他們的親人之後。

And this is basically just the biggest insult to the dignity of Iranian citizen, Iranian protesters.

這基本上是對伊朗公民、伊朗抗議者尊嚴最大的侮辱。

I think the regime is choosing this strategy, choosing this signal again to reinstate its power and to reinstate its control.

我認為政權選擇了這個策略，再次選擇這個訊號來重申其權力與控制。

Sarah, thank you very much for talking with us today.

莎拉，非常感謝您今天和我們談話。

That was Sarah Basubandi, a fellow at Keele University here in in Germany.

這是莎拉．巴蘇班迪，德國基爾大學的研究員。