Name: 泰國驚奇大選結果出爐！BBC World Service 亞洲專題 podcast (Thailand’s surprise election results - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service)
Uploaded: 2026-02-11T06:27:10.000Z
Duration: 19 min 19 s

分詞構句

Thailand was once seen as one of the fast growing economies of Asia, fueled by factories and a booming tourism sector.

泰國曾被視為亞洲經濟成長最快的國家之一，這得益於其製造業和蓬勃發展的觀光業。

基礎被動語態

Those factories have started to pack up and go to regional rivals like Vietnam.

那些工廠已經開始打包，轉往越南等區域競爭對手國家。

So one would expect that Thai voters would want to shake things up to jumpstart the economy.

所以大家可能會預期，泰國選民會想改變現狀來刺激經濟。

But that didn't happen in the country's latest elections.

但這在國家最近的選舉中並沒有發生。

Why did voters choose status quo over change by backing pro establishment party?

選民為何選擇 status quo 而非改變，轉而支持 pro establishment 的政黨？

After this, today's vote has given up on the idea that democracy can bring about change.

在此之後，今天的投票似乎放棄了民主能夠帶來改變的期望。

I'm Mariko in Singapore and this is Asia Pacific from the BBC World Service.

我是 Mariko 在新加坡，這裡是 BBC World Service 的 Asia Pacific。

Twice a week we bring you Asia Pacific stories unpacked by those who know them best.

每週兩次，我們會為您帶來由最瞭解的專家深入剖析的 Asia Pacific 故事。

And today I have the BBC Southeast Asia correspondent Jonathan Head.

而今天，我邀請到的是 BBC Southeast Asia correspondent Jonathan Head。

I also have Professor Titanampon Sudharak from Chalalongkorn University.

我也請到了 Chalongkorn University 的 Titanampon Sudharak 教授。

Thank you both for joining me on Asia Pacific.

So let's start by painting the picture, Jonathan, because you've covered many elections across the region.

Jonathan，我們就從描繪現場狀況開始吧，因為妳跑過這個區域的許多選舉。

You know, all the red shirts and yellow shirts and now orange and so on.

妳知道，有各式各樣的 red shirts 和 yellow shirts，現在還有 orange 等等。

But what's been the mood over the last few weeks?

但過去幾週的氣氛是怎麼樣的？

I'm always impressed by the degree of sort of sense of civic duty with which Thais go to votes, the seriousness with which they take the.

我總是對泰國人投票時那種公民責任感，以及他們對這件事的認真態度印象深刻。

The very many choices that they're offered.

There were 57 parties taking part in this election, some of them with very eccentric agendas.

這次選舉有 57 個政黨參加，有些政黨的政見非常奇特。

There was one chap who said he was going to go buy nuclear weapons for Thailand.

有個傢伙說他要去為泰國買核武。

There was a Green Party that's posters were just entirely full of pictures of pets.

有個綠黨的海報上全都是寵物的照片。

But for all of that, I mean, Thais do listen to policies to varying degrees.

但儘管如此，泰國人對政策的重視程度還是有高有低。

It's always an impressive spectacle to me.

對我來說，這總是一個令人印象深刻的場面。

It's not as lively as some countries like the Philippines.

The Philippines, you've got so much music, so much showbiz.

菲律賓有非常多的音樂、非常多的娛樂表演。

The election commission has quite strict rules about what's allowed.

選舉委員會對於哪些是允許的，有相當嚴格的規定。

You're not allowed to be giving anything away.

They don't have music on, at least don't have performers on the stage, sort of entertainers.

他們沒有播放音樂，至少舞臺上沒有表演者，那種娛樂表演。

But it is a genuinely democratic exercise to the extent that people are engaged with the process.

但這確實是一個真正民主的過程，因為人們都參與其中。

You get a sense that this is something the country is very used to doing.

你會感覺到這是這個國家非常習慣做的一件事。

And by and large, and there will be some criticism, but by and large, voting is also orderly.

總體來說，雖然會有批評，但總體來說，投票也是很有秩序的。

Lots of officials to show people what to do.

有很多官員會指導民眾該怎麼做。

To that extent, it looks like Quite a healthy democracy.

這樣看來，這就像一個相當健康的民主。

Well, let's unpack the election results because opinion polls do often get things wrong.

不過，我們來好好分析一下這次的選舉結果，因為民調有時候真的會不準。

But this time it was really different from how many experts were predicting the results to be.

但這次跟很多專家預測的結果真的差很多。

所以，Titanen，到底發生了什麼事？

I mean, the People's Party was supposed to search ahead.

我是說，人民黨本來應該是遙遙領先的。

They were building on a reform drive going back to 2018, 2019, they won.

他們是建立在2018、2019年開始的改革基礎上，他們贏了。

2019, they won the election in 2023 before being dissolved.

2019年，他們贏得了2023年的選舉，然後就被解散了。

And then as a new party, People's Party had a lot of momentum.

然後，作為一個新政黨，人民黨原本很有氣勢。

The problem we had in the past is yellow shirts could not win an election.

我們過去遇到的問題是，黃衫軍贏不了選舉。

They represented, they were the foot soldiers of the establishment, the conservative royal establishment.

他們代表了，他們是保守的皇室建制派的基層戰士。

And they went up against a taxing party machine back in the last 25, 26 years, really.

而且他們在過去25、26年來，真的都在對抗一個稅務黨機器。

But this time, the first time that the establishments that the yellow shirts used to represent, they now have won the election behind Pum Chai Thai Party.

但這次，黃衫軍過去所代表的建制派，第一次贏得了選舉，而且是在Pum Chai Thai Party背後。

The color this time is blue and it's also a green color represented by Galatan Party, a medium sized party.

這一次的顏色是藍色，也有綠色，由中型政黨Galatan Party代表。

So together these two parties are through and through royalist establishment parties and they've won the election decisively.

所以這兩個政黨合在一起，是徹頭徹尾的皇室建制派政黨，而且他們以壓倒性優勢贏得了選舉。

Jonathan Titinan just mentioned the establishment.

Jonathan Titinan剛才提到了建制派。

You hear this word quite often in Thai politics, but what exactly does it mean?

在泰國政治中，你經常聽到這個詞，但它到底是什麼意思？

Golly, that is the difficult question, I'm sure if you were to ask Titinan as well.

天啊，這真是個難題，我相信如果你問Titinan，他也會這麼說。

Defining it's hard because it's kind of amorphous.

定義起來很難，因為它有點模糊。

I'd say Thailand is a deeply conservative country, partly because it was never colonized.

我會說泰國是一個非常保守的國家，部分原因是它從未被殖民過。

It never had that kind of radical foundational myth of resistance that many former colonized countries have.

它沒有像許多前殖民國家那樣，擁有激進的抵抗建國神話。

And it has at it's heart a highly revered monarchy and also very powerful monarchy, which, as you may understand, we can't talk about freely really.

它的核心是一個備受尊崇且極具權力的君主制，正如你可能理解的，我們其實不能自由談論它。

There are lots of rules about the monarchy and what you can say, but

有很多關於君主制的規定，以及你可以說什麼，但是

The monarchy sits on top symbolically of a hierarchy under which you've got very big businesses that dominate the economy.

君主制在象徵意義上，位於一個等級制度的頂端，其下有主導經濟的龐大企業。

You've got some of the most senior bureaucrats and judges in the system.

你有系統中最資深的官僚和法官。

You've also got the military, which has a very strong, powerful, traditional partnership with the monarchy.

你還有軍方，軍方與君主制有著非常強大、傳統的夥伴關係。

And together this somewhat hard to define establishment is enormously influential, often in ways we can't see.

總之，這個有點難以定義的建制派，具有巨大的影響力，而且常常是以我們看不見的方式。

And their influence pervades through Thai society.

他們的影響力滲透到泰國社會的各個角落。

You know, a nod or an instruction can often get officials lower down to follow their orders.

你知道，一個點頭或一個訓示，常常就能讓下級官員遵從他們的命令。

It has meant that Thailand has tended to veer conservative in the past and that parties that have or entities that have tried to challenge that have run up against all sorts of obstacles.

這意味著泰國過去傾向於保守，而那些試圖挑戰這一點的政黨或實體都遇到了各種阻礙。

I mean Titinam mentioned then move the move forward.

我指的是 Titinam 提到的 move the move forward。

The predecessor of People's Party being dissolved, the Constitutional Court has become this extraordinarily powerful conservative referee that can at a stroke dismiss prime ministers, dissolve parties, ban people from politics for all sorts of what seem like quite trivial transactions.

People's Party 的前身被解散，憲法法院成為了一個極其強大的保守裁判，可以輕易罷免總理、解散政黨、因為各種看似微不足道的交易而禁止人們從政。

But nearly all of these are on the anti establishment side.

但幾乎所有這些都是在反建制派這邊。

Broadly, do you think it's possible that voters kind of lost faith in the democratic election, especially what happened last time when the reformist party did well and yet wasn't allowed to govern.

總體來說，你認為選民可能對民主選舉失去信心了嗎？尤其是在上次改革派政黨表現出色卻不被允許執政的情況下。

Do you think some people may have just kind of given up on that idea?

你認為有些人可能已經放棄了這個想法嗎？

I think that, you know, voter turnout this time, for example is just under 65% as opposed to 75% in 2023, 74% 2019.

我認為，你看，這次的投票率，例如只有不到 65%，而 2023 年是 75%，2019 年是 74%。

So the momentum and the surge of these younger demographics has slowed and maybe thinking twice given the numbers that we have also in 2023, I think the move forward at that time they had a campaign platform based on amending, you know, really reforming the military, the monarchy, judiciary, really kind of recalibrating, rethinking, reordering Thai society and politics and economy.

所以年輕族群的聲勢和熱潮減弱了，也許會三思而後行，考慮到我們在 2023 年的數據，我認為當時的進步黨有一個競選綱領，基於修訂，你知道的，真正改革軍隊、君主制、司法，真正重新調整、重新思考、重新安排泰國社會、政治和經濟。

It really caught traction, caught fire and they had a lot of support.

它真的引起了共鳴，像火一樣蔓延，他們得到了很多支持。

They won the election this time they cannot campaign because they were prohibited by the Constitutional Court during the ban and the dissolution of from campaigning on let's majeste amendment.

他們這次贏得了選舉，但他們不能競選，因為憲法法院在禁止和解散期間禁止他們競選關於冒犯君主罪的修訂。

So they had to stick to kind of an anti corruption platform.

所以他們不得不堅持一種反腐敗的綱領。

而且，你知道的，聽起來比較平淡。

I think that the leadership shifting from PETA Limche ran rat in 2023 move forward.

我認為領導層在 2023 年從 Pita Limjaroenrat 轉移到了 Move Forward。

Very charismatic, very cosmopolitan to Natapong.

非常有魅力、非常國際化的 Natapong。

He's very young, he's very competent, capable, but doesn't have the same kind of mass appeal.

他很年輕，很有能力，很有才華，但沒有同樣的大眾吸引力。

I think a lot of the base also got upset with the party, People's Party for voting for Anutin to take office back in September in exchange for writing a new constitution.

我認為進步黨的許多基礎選民也對進步黨在九月投票支持 Anutin 擔任公職感到不滿，以換取制定新憲法。

I was going to say it's worth looking at just how well an Utin's boom Jai Thai has done.

我本來想說，看看 Anutin 的 Boom Jai Thai 黨表現如何，其實也蠻值得關注的。

If you go back to the 2019 election, they were then just a mid sized, very provincially based party, about 50 seats.

如果你回顧 2019 年的選舉，當時他們只是一個中小型、非常地方性的政黨，大約有 50 個席次。

They could bargain to be part of a coalition.

他們可以透過協商來加入聯合政府。

Nearly 200 seats now, they got around 70, just over 70 at the last election.

現在快要 200 個席次了，上次選舉他們大概拿了 70 幾個席次。

This is a huge surge and it's worth making the Point, this is being done partly of very good campaigning and answering people's need for simple bread and butter sort of programs that can help them when they're under economic distress.

這是一個巨大的成長，值得一提的是，這部分是因為他們非常好的競選活動，以及回應了民眾對簡單民生計畫的需求，這些計畫能在經濟困難時幫助他們。

But also the biggest factor in Thai politics over the last 25 years has been Thaksin Shinawat Puartai Party, the election machine that for 20 years could not be beaten.

但過去 25 年來泰國政治最大的因素，也是過去 20 年來無人能敵的選舉機器，就是 Thaksin Shinawat 的 Puartai Party。

It did much worse than expected in the last election, but actually came second place this time.

上次選舉的表現遠不如預期，但這次其實拿到了第二名。

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泰國驚奇大選結果出爐！BBC World Service 亞洲專題 podcast (Thailand’s surprise election results - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service)

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