Name: 鉅亨專題：2026年什麼才算是「避險資產」？| 路透 (On The Money: What counts as a 'safe haven' in 2026? | REUTERS)
Uploaded: 2026-01-14T17:16:15.000Z
Duration: 6 min 12 s

程度副詞

President Trump issued threats to Cuba, Colombia and Greenland just in the first working week of the new year.

新年第一週，川普總統就對古巴、哥倫比亞和格陵蘭發出了威脅。

Russia fired a nuclear capable missile at Ukraine.

俄羅斯朝烏克蘭發射了一枚具核能力的飛彈。

China carried out military exercises off Taiwan.

中國在臺灣附近進行了軍事演習。

And all the while some investors are warning about a stock bubble.

同時，有些投資人正在警告有股票保麗龍的可能。

So what are the safe alternatives for your money?

那麼，你的錢有哪些安全的替代選擇呢？

Nobody should confuse safe haven with risk free.

千萬別把避險資產跟無風險搞混了。

Nothing is risk free in markets as we know.

就像我們知道的，市場上沒有什麼是無風險的。

Lets take a look at some traditionally safe stores for your money.

我們來看看一些傳統上比較安全的資金停泊處吧。

It's the world's reserve currency, meaning commodities around the globe are priced in dollars.

它是世界的儲備貨幣，這意味著全球的商品都是以美元計價的。

But in 2025, the US dollar lost 10% of its value.

A lot of the erratic policy making from the Trump administration in the early days I think really did upset the apple cart a little bit.

我認為川普政府早期許多混亂的政策制定，確實有點搞砸了局面。

At no point did anybody say, oh, you don't want to own the dollar because it's not safe anymore.

沒有人說過，喔，你不想持有美元，因為它不再安全了。

But it simply added a little bit of uncertainty to what had previously been a fairly cast iron narrative that that is, there is nothing safer than the greenback.

但這只是為了一個過去堅不可摧的敘事，也就是沒有什麼比美元更安全的，增添了一點不確定性。

There is a huge amount of debt building up.

There's a big fiscal deficit in the US and that's in a time of economic growth.

美國的財政赤字很大，而且這還是在經濟成長時期。

So you know, we don't quite know what's going to happen there.

所以，我們不太確定那裡會發生什麼事。

We also know that there are some further US risks this year with the new appointment of the new Federal Reserve head.

我們也知道今年還有一些進一步的美國風險，因為新任的聯準會主席被任命了。

And if this is seen as too much of a political appointee, and

而且如果這被視為一個太過政治任命的人選，

我想我們都知道會是這樣，但是

if the influence is going to start swinging away from investors believing the Federal Reserve is truly independent, that could also cause some worries about the US itself.

如果投資人開始覺得聯準會不再真正獨立，影響力開始轉移，這也會引起一些對美國本身的擔憂。

Most of the world's business is done in dollars.

世界上大部分的生意都是用美元進行的。

It is the most widely used thing in the world, the most widely traded thing in the world.

它是世界上使用最廣泛的東西，世界上交易最頻繁的東西。

Whether you trade the dollar itself or something denominated in dollar like dollars, like gold or barrels of crude oil, ultimately all comes back to the dollar.

無論你是交易美元本身，還是交易以美元計價的東西，像是黃金或原油桶，最終都會回到美元。

So it's very difficult to see another currency replacing the dollar.

所以，很難看到有其他貨幣能取代美元。

But it's true that there are alternatives.

For example, in times of real crisis, safe haven currencies include things like the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen.

例如，在真正的危機時期，避險貨幣包括像瑞士法郎、日圓這些。

What if you take your money and buy something solid with it instead, like a bar of gold?

如果你把錢拿去買些實體的東西，像是金條，那又會怎麼樣呢？

You wouldn't be the first person to have that idea.

你不是第一個想到這個點子的人。

The price of Gold jumped 66% in 2025 and started the new year with new highs.

黃金價格在 2025 年上漲了 66%，並以新高價開啟了新的一年。

It's unusual to see to see that kind of climb in gold when other assets are doing so well.

在其他資產表現如此亮眼時，看到黃金出現這種漲幅確實很不尋常。

I think there's been a lot of central bank buying.

I think that there have been non Western countries that have perhaps started to shy away from purely owning dollar assets and therefore they have been buyers of gold.

我認為有些非西方國家可能已經開始迴避純粹持有美元資產，是以他們一直在買進黃金。

When you have these moments of big financial turmoil, let's say things like the market crisis that we saw take hold in April, that then settled the COVID crisis that stood stirred up markets, the financial crisis of 2008, and

當出現重大的金融動盪時刻，像是我們在四月看到的市場危機，那場危機又平息了攪動市場的 COVID 危機，還有 2008 年的金融危機，

people were very quick to say, oh, but gold dropped then.

人們很快就說，哦，但那時候黃金下跌了。

If investors and retail investors are very concerned about the political with the lay of the land.

如果投資人和散戶對政治局勢非常關心。

They see politically there is something about holding a physical asset which is a bearer asset.

他們看到政治上，持有實體資產，一種不記名資產，有其獨特之處。

You don't need to rely on a counterparty for any of it.

If you think that you have some money in a savings account or pennies in your piggy bank for a rainy day, a lot of people own gold for precisely that.

如果你認為你把一些錢存放在儲蓄帳戶，或是零錢放在撲滿裡以備不時之需，很多人就是因為這個原因而持有黃金。

So when that rainy day arrives, what are they going to do?

所以當那個不時之需來臨時，他們會怎麼做？

It's something they can easily convert to dollars.

這是他們可以輕鬆換成美元的東西。

Somebody will always be on the buying end and that can even be a central bank, the buyer of last resort.

總會有人在買方，甚至可能是中央銀行，作為最後的買家。

Another classic safety play is to buy the debt issued by governments, especially the U.S. treasury.

另一個經典的安全操作是購買政府發行的債務，特別是美國國債。

But the soaring size of that debt and erratic government policy, especially around international tariffs, made investors jittery in 2025.

但債務不斷飆升的規模，以及政府的隨機政策，尤其是在國際關稅方面，讓投資人在 2025 年感到不安。

The bond vigilantes came out briefly in April last year when we had Liberation Day and there were a lot of concerns about what would happen to the US economy and what would happen to the global economy if the level of tariffs that were initially proposed actually came into play.

去年四月，在解放日那天，債券市場的監督者們短暫出現，當時大家都很擔心，如果最初提議的關稅真的實施，美國經濟和全球經濟會怎麼樣。

So we did see that unusual circumstance of the equity market falling off and then also the dollar and the treasury market, which was really, I think, the point at which Trump's advisors said, look, we need to do something now, this is really serious.

所以我們確實看到了一種不尋常的情況，股市下跌，美元和國債市場也跟著下跌，我認為這正是川普的顧問們說「看，我們現在必須做點什麼，這真的很嚴重」的時刻。

What you've got to think of is why are you owning a U.S. treasury?

你得想想，你為什麼要持有美國國債？

What is it that you expect from it to protect you against all and any risk?

你期望它能保護你免受所有風險的侵害嗎？

Well, no, because the value of that treasury note will go up and down as well.

嗯，不是的，因為那張國債的價值也會波動。

You expect interest payments throughout and your money back at the end of those 10 years.

你期望在整個過程中收到利息，並在十年期滿時拿回本金。

And in that sense, as long as you believe in the US Government's creditworthiness, then it's a safe bet.

在這種情況下，只要你相信美國政府的信用，那它就是一個安全的選擇。

But whether it's safe and risk free is another issue entirely.

但它是否安全且無風險，又是另一回事了。

The US is not alone in having a significant debt pile.

美國並非唯一一個債務堆積如山。

for the moment, the US economy appears fairly robust.

目前來看，美國經濟似乎相當穩健。

I think we've just had some numbers out showing a little bit of an undershoot to expectations, but

我認為我們剛公佈的一些數據顯示，稍微低於預期，但

closing out 2025 on near 4% economic growth is quite something, so maybe there's nothing to worry about.

以將近4%的經濟成長結束2025年，這相當不錯，所以也許沒什麼好擔心的。

And if you keep your savings in cash in a shoebox under the bed, inflation will still erode their value.

如果你把現金儲蓄放在床下的鞋盒裡，通貨膨脹還是會侵蝕它們的價值。

Cryptocurrencies were pitched as a safe haven, but they went on a wild roller coaster last year.

加密貨幣曾被宣傳為避險資產，但去年它們經歷了瘋狂的過山車。

So maybe the answer isn't to find one safe asset, but to spread your bets.

所以也許答案不是找到一個避險資產，而是分散你的賭注。

It's the diversification of different assets and owning some real assets that will protect you against inflation.

這是不同資產的多元化，擁有某些實質資產，才能保護你免受通貨膨脹的影響。

Owning some fixed income assets, owning some gold, owning lots of different asset classes that's what gives you a better protection than just pinning your hopes on one particular asset.

擁有某些固定收益資產、黃金，擁有許多不同的資產類別，這能提供比寄望於某個特定資產更好的保護。