Name: 川普該對普丁下重手了嗎？ | DW 新聞 (Is it time for Trump to put the screws to Putin? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-12-04T17:06:23.000Z
Duration: 15 min 33 s

Well, Kiev has accused Vladimir Putin of feigning interest in peace efforts after US And Russia talks in the Kremlin failed to reach a breakthrough.

不過，基輔指控 Vladimir Putin 在美國和俄羅斯於克里姆林宮的會談未能取得突破後，假裝對和平努力感興趣。

US Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump's son in law, Jared Kushner presented a revised version of a 28 point peace plan that had been criticized for favoring Moscow.

美國特使 Steve Witkoff 和川普總統的女婿 Jared Kushner 提出了 28 點和平計畫的修訂版，該計畫因偏袒莫斯科而受到批評。

情態副詞

Ukraine requested the revisions and tentatively backed the new draft.

烏克蘭要求進行修訂，並初步支持了新草案。

After the meeting, President Putin's adviser, Yuri Ushakov said no progress had been made towards peace.

會後，普丁總統的顧問 Yuri Ushakov 表示，在和平方面沒有取得任何進展。

But he also described the talks as very useful, constructive and highly substantive.

但他同時形容這次會談非常有益、具建設性且內容充實。

Specific territorial issues were discussed, without which we cannot see a solution to the crisis.

我們討論了具體的領土問題，沒有這些問題，我們就看不到危機的解決方案。

Of course, the huge prospects for future economic cooperation between our two countries were also discussed.

當然，我們兩國未來經濟合作的巨大前景也得到了討論。

到目前為止，我們還沒有找到妥協方案。

But some American solutions seem more or less acceptable and we can discuss them.

但一些美國的解決方案似乎或多或少可以接受，我們可以討論它們。

Some of the solutions that were offered do not suit us.

所提出的一些解決方案並不適合我們。

Let's take a look at where things now stand with foreign policy analyst Max Boot.

讓我們來看看外交政策分析師 Max Boot 的最新情況。

He's the Jean J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

他是外交關係委員會的 Jean J. Kirkpatrick 國家安全研究高級研究員。

He's also a columnist for the Washington Post.

他也是華盛頓郵報的專欄作家。

So we have five hours of talks with no particular outcome.

所以我們進行了五小時的會談，但沒有具體的結果。

What's your understanding of what happens next?

That's a great question to which I don't have a great answer.

這是一個很好的問題，但我沒有很好的答案。

I mean, it's been obvious for quite a while that Vladimir Putin, who is the only person who could possibly end the war in Ukraine, has no interest in ending it on any terms short of Ukraine's complete surrender.

我的意思是，很長一段時間以來，很明顯 Vladimir Putin，也就是唯一可能結束烏克蘭戰爭的人，對以烏克蘭完全投降以外的任何條件結束戰爭都不感興趣。

And everything that we are hearing out of the talks in Moscow only confirm the Russian intransigence.

而我們從莫斯科的會談中聽到的所有消息，都證實了俄羅斯的頑固態度。

Remember that earlier this year, President Zelensky repeatedly agreed to a complete ceasefire.

請記住，今年稍早，Zelensky 總統曾多次同意完全停火。

And if Putin wanted peace, he could stop attacking tomorrow.

如果普丁總統想要和平，他明天就可以停止攻擊。

So I'm not sure what the point is of sending the President, President Trump's real estate buddy and his son in law to Moscow for yet another series of talks where Putin is going to fill their heads with Russian propaganda and send them back to Washington in a way that is likely to undermine the Ukrainian cause.

所以我不確定，為什麼要派川普總統的房地產好友和他的女婿去莫斯科進行新一輪的會談，普丁總統會對他們灌輸俄羅斯的宣傳，然後讓他們帶著可能損害烏克蘭事業的方式回到華盛頓。

So do you think the White House is now getting that message?

那麼，你認為白宮現在收到這個訊息了嗎？

Because we're all now left wondering, well, what's Trump's next move?

因為我們現在都很好奇，川普總統下一步會怎麼做？

Does he walk away or does he say, no, Putin has made a fool of me enough times.

他會放棄，還是會說，不，普丁總統已經把我耍了夠多次了。

I mean, Trump keeps getting made a fool of by Putin and he keeps coming back for more.

我的意思是，川普總統不斷被普丁總統耍，但他卻一次又一次地回來。

I can't really explain it or tell you when it's going to end.

我真的無法解釋，也無法告訴你這會什麼時候結束。

I actually thought it had ended a few months ago when Trump finally imposed sanctions on a couple of Russian oil companies, the first sanctions he had imposed all year.

我其實以為幾個月前就結束了，當時川普總統終於對幾家俄羅斯石油公司實施了制裁，這是他當年第一次實施制裁。

It seemed like he was finally getting tough.

But then a couple of weeks ago, the Trump administration released this 28 point peace plan that read as if it could have been written in Moscow, and

但幾週前，川普政府發布了這份長達28點的和平計畫，讀起來就像是從莫斯科寫出來的一樣，而且

it may have been written in Moscow, and demanded that Ukraine accept it within a few days.

可能真的是在莫斯科寫的，並要求烏克蘭在幾天內接受。

Now, thankfully, that deadline has come and gone, and

the 28 point peace plan has been substantially modified after talks between the Ukrainians and Secretary of State Rubio.

這份28點的和平計畫在烏克蘭和國務卿魯比歐的會談後，已經大幅修改。

But I'm not sure what any of that achieved, because basically what we have right now is we have negotiations between the United States and Ukraine.

但我不確定這些修改達到了什麼目的，因為基本上我們現在的情況是，美國和烏克蘭在進行談判。

The only way to end the war is to negotiate with Russia.

結束戰爭的唯一方法是與俄羅斯談判。

And Putin has made clear he's not interested in serious peace talks.

而普丁總統已經說得很清楚，他對認真的和平會談沒興趣。

So therefore, the only way to convince him to change his mind is to continue increasing the pressure on Russia.

所以，唯一能說服他改變心意的辦法，就是持續對俄羅斯施加壓力。

But every trip that Trump's envoys make to to Moscow decreases the pressure and allows Putin to keep manipulating Trump.

但是川普的特使每次前往莫斯科，都會降低壓力，讓普丁繼續操弄川普。

Almost as an aside, we heard President Putin's foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov say that discussions between the US And Russian delegations also covered what he called the huge prospects for future economic cooperation between our two countries.

幾乎是順帶一提，我們聽到普丁總統的國策顧問 Yuri Ushakov 說，美國和俄羅斯代表團之間的討論，也涵蓋了他所謂的兩國未來經濟合作的巨大前景。

And that's all the conspiracy theorist in me needs to wonder.

這就足以讓身為陰謀論者的我開始猜想了。

Could it be that US and indeed Trump, business interests are the real goal of these talks?

難道美國，甚至川普的商業利益，才是這些會談的真正目標嗎？

So it doesn't matter that the peace talks go nowhere?

所以和平會談毫無進展也無所謂嗎？

I mean, in fact, there was a fascinating report in the Wall Street Journal a few days ago about all the business deals that various Trump associates are pursuing with Russia.

我的意思是，事實上，幾天前華爾街日報有一篇引人入勝的報導，講述了許多川普的夥伴正在與俄羅斯進行的各種商業交易。

Clearly, I mean, the reason why Putin's primary interlocutor of the Americans is Kirill Dmitriev, who is not the foreign minister of Russia.

很明顯，普丁與美國的主要對話者是 Kirill Dmitriev，他不是俄羅斯的fromRGB部長。

He is the head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund.

他是俄羅斯主權財富基金的負責人。

So clearly he is dangling business opportunities before the Trump team.

所以很明顯，他正在向川普團隊展示商業機會。

And one of the weird things in the 28 point peace plan was a promise that $100 billion of the frozen Russian assets in the west would be used to rebuild Ukraine, with half the profits going to the United States.

而那份有 28 點的和平計畫中，有個奇怪的條款，承諾西方凍結的俄羅斯資產中，有 1000 億美元將用於重建烏克蘭，其中一半的利潤歸美國。

I mean, if this is development aid, it's not supposed to have a profit.

我的意思是，如果這是發展援助，就不應該有什麼利潤。

But that was clearly a signal that there is a lot of money on the table from Russia for the taking for the United States, and

但這顯然是一個信號，表明俄羅斯有大筆資金擺在桌上，讓美國可以拿取，

in particular, probably for people like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who have a Long have a long record of doing business deals abroad.

特別是可能像 Steve Witkoff 和 Jared Kushner 這樣，長期以來都有海外商業交易紀錄的人。

I'd just like to play you a clip of Vladimir Putin speaking just ahead of yesterday's meeting, and

我只想讓你們聽一段 Vladimir Putin 在昨天會議前夕的發言片段，

Even when they try to supposedly introduce some changes to Trump's proposal, we see clearly what they're doing.

即使他們試圖對川普的提議進行所謂的某些修改，我們也清楚地看到了他們的做法。

All these changes are aimed at only one to completely block the entire peace process by putting forward demands that are absolutely unacceptable to Russia.

所有這些修改都只針對一個目標，就是提出俄羅斯絕對無法接受的要求，從而完全阻礙整個和平進程。

Max Boot, when I watched that yesterday, I marveled that the Russian president was able to keep a straight face.

Max Boot，昨天我看到這段時，我驚嘆俄羅斯總統竟然能面不改色。

Everything he accused the European Union of doing was exactly what Europe accuses him of doing.

他指控歐盟做的所有事情，其實正是歐洲指控他做的。

Give us your analysis of what that performance was about, who it was meant for, what it was trying to achieve.

請分析一下這場表演是怎麼回事，是演給誰看的，又想達成什麼目的。

This is all a Kabuki show meant to sway Donald Trump, basically.

這一切都是一場虛應故事，基本上是為了影響 Donald Trump。

I don't think there's any serious peace process underway.

我認為並沒有什麼真正的和平進程在進行。

What is underway is really a blame game where Putin is trying to blame Ukraine for the lack of peace, and

實際上正在進行的是一場互相指責的遊戲，普丁試圖指責烏克蘭沒有達成和平，而

Ukraine and the Europeans are quite rightly blaming Putin for the lack of peace.

烏克蘭和歐洲國家則很有道理地指責普丁沒有達成和平。

And the question is, who can convince Donald Trump that they're right?

問題是，誰能說服 Donald Trump 他們才是對的？

And unfortunately, Trump has a tendency to echo whoever he talks to last, and

不幸的是，Trump 傾向於附和他最後交談的對象，

所以他容易來來回回搖擺不定。

After the Alaska summit, he was sounding very pro Russian.

在阿拉斯加峰會之後，他聽起來非常親俄羅斯。

Then the Europeans and Zelensky came to the White House and he was suddenly sounding pro Ukrainian.

接著歐洲人和澤倫斯基來到白宮，他突然聽起來親烏克蘭。

And I fear that with Trump, his default mode is pro Russian.

我擔心川普的預設模式是親俄羅斯。

That Steve Witkoff in particular, seems to be a very credulous envoy who basically believes a lot of what Putin tells him, even though any experienced negotiator would know that everything that Putin is saying is a lie.

特別是 Steve Witkoff，似乎是一位非常輕信的特使，他基本上相信普丁告訴他的一切，即使任何有經驗的談判代表都知道普丁說的一切都是謊言。

Russia, the Russian narrative in this pretty much frozen war is that it has the upper hand on the battlefield.

俄羅斯，在這場幾乎陷入僵局的戰爭中，俄羅斯的說法是他們在戰場上佔了上風。

It says Ukraine and its European allies need to take that into account.

他們說烏克蘭和其歐洲盟友需要考慮這一點。

Since the war began in 2022, Russian forces have hardly advanced since the early days of the war, and

自從戰爭在 2022 年開始以來，俄羅斯軍隊自戰爭初期以來幾乎沒有進展，而且

they've suffered roughly a million casualties, killed and wounded.

他們遭受了近百萬的傷亡，包括陣亡和受傷。

他們沒有取得任何實質性的進展。

他們是以巨大的代價緩慢推進。

And one of the demands that Putin is making in the negotiations is he wants the Ukrainians to hand over the rest of the rest of Donetsk province to the Russians, even though the Russians have not been able to conquer it over the course of more than 10 years, ever since the initial Russian invasion in 2014.

普丁在談判中的要求之一是，他希望烏克蘭將頓內茨克省的剩餘地區交給俄羅斯，儘管俄羅斯自 2014 年初次入侵以來，十多年來都未能佔領它。

And according to estimates from British intelligence, it would probably, at the current rate of advance, would probably take the Russians another Three or four years to conquer the rest of Donetsk because the Ukrainians have a very strong belt of fortresses which are protecting the rest of the country from the Russian attack.

根據英國情報部門的估計，以目前的推進速度，俄羅斯可能還需要三到四年才能佔領頓內茨克剩餘地區，因為烏克蘭擁有堅固的防線，保護國家免受俄羅斯攻擊。

He's trying to achieve at the negotiating table what his troops cannot achieve on the battlefield.

他試圖在談判桌上達成他的部隊在戰場上無法實現的目標。

Max Boot from the Council on Foreign Relations.

Max Boot，來自外交關係委員會。

Let's explore where we are then with Alexandra Chinchilla, who is Assistant professor in the Department of International affairs at Texas A and M's Bush School of Government and Public Service.

那我們來看看現在的狀況，請到德州農工大學小布希政府與公共事務學院國際事務學系的助理教授 Alexandra Chinchilla。

She's an expert on Russia, Ukraine and NATO and joins us from Houston, Texas.

她是俄羅斯、烏克蘭和北約的專家，今天從德州休士頓加入我們。

So no movement from yesterday's Moscow talks beyond Russia saying it dislikes a lot of things.

所以，莫斯科的會談跟昨天相比沒有什麼進展，除了俄羅斯說他們不喜歡很多事情之外。

Saw a few things worth thinking about, though.

不過，有幾件事值得我們思考。

Why would anyone who has studied Putin's approach to negotiation expect any other outcome?

任何研究過普丁談判方式的人，為什麼會期待有不同的結果呢？

I think one of the things that people are hoping for out of this peace talks is that Russia's presented this image of itself, is doing very well on the battlefield.

我認為大家對這次的和平會談抱持的期望之一是，俄羅斯一直以來都展現出自己在戰場上表現得很好的形象。

But if you look at what's actually happening, that's essentially a propaganda point.

但如果看看實際發生的情況，那基本上就是一個宣傳點。

If you compare the map from 2025 to the map in 2023, it's essentially the same picture.

如果我們比較 2025 年的地圖和 2023 年的地圖，其實是差不多的情況。

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川普該對普丁下重手了嗎？ | DW 新聞 (Is it time for Trump to put the screws to Putin? | DW News)

essentially

present

critical

compromise