Name: 澳洲的氣候簽證是世界的典範嗎？| DW 新聞 (Is Australia's climate visa a model for the world? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-07-22T17:04:37.000Z
Duration: 14 min 3 s

Small, low-lying islands are the front line in the battle against climate change.

地勢低窪的小島嶼是應對氣候變化的前沿陣地。

情態副詞

They're disproportionately impacted by rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and more frequent and intense storm surges.

海平面上升、海岸侵蝕以及更頻繁、更猛烈的風暴潮對他們的影響尤為嚴重。

That's why over a third of the population of the tiny Pacific nation of Tuvalu have applied to migrate to Australia.

這就是太平洋小國吐瓦魯超過三分之一的人口申請移民澳洲的原因。

They hope to make the move on a so-called climate visa, a landmark scheme designed to help people escape the islands as they become increasingly uninhabitable.

他們希望通過所謂的 "氣候簽證 "來實現這一願望。"氣候簽證 "是一項具有里程碑意義的計劃，旨在幫助人們在這些島嶼越來越不適合居住的情況下逃離這些島嶼。

Tuvalu's population of 11,000 lives on atolls scattered across the Pacific.

吐瓦魯人口為 11,000 人，居住在散佈於太平洋各處的環礁上。

That's one of the country's most at risk from the effects of climate change.

這是該國受氣候變化影響最嚴重的地區之一。

Scientists fear it could be underwater within 35 years.

科學家擔心，它可能在 35 年內被淹沒。

She's an award-winning science writer and author.

她是一位屢獲殊榮的科普作家和作者。

Her latest book is called Nomad Century, How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our World.

她的新書名為《遊牧世紀：氣候遷移將如何重塑我們的世界》（Nomad Century, How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our World）。

It's such a pleasure to have you on the show.

Now, we heard that there are thousands of Tuvaluans who want to leave their homeland, but the Australian scheme will actually only grant 280 climate visas.

現在，我們聽說有成千上萬的吐瓦魯人想要離開自己的祖國，但澳洲的計劃實際上只會發放 280 份氣候簽證。

What happens to the rest of the applicants?

Well, this is an agreement by which people apply every year.

嗯，這是一項協議，每年都有人提出申請。

Actually the number, the ballot was opened around a month ago and it closed on Friday and already more than 5,000 have applied.

實際上，這個數字是一個月前開始投票的，週五截止，已經有 5000 多人申請。

So almost half the population has applied for this visa, but it's estimated, but in 10 years, around 40% of the population may have moved to Australia.

是以，幾乎有一半的人口申請了這種簽證，但據估計，10 年後，可能會有約 40% 的人口移居澳洲。

And this is a climate agreement, which is remarkable, not because it's the first such agreement, but because it's the first one which is looking at relocating the entire population of a nation to a safer other nation due to climate change.

這是一份氣候協議，它之所以引人注目，不是因為它是第一份這樣的協議，而是因為它是第一份著眼於因氣候變化而將一個國家的全部人口遷移到更安全的其他國家的協議。

Climate change is threatening already today the lives and livelihoods of millions of people around the globe and already today, a huge driver of displacement.

氣候變化今天已經威脅到全球數百萬人的生命和生計，今天已經成為流離失所的巨大驅動力。

你寫過一本關於這個主題的書。

So tell me, how will climate migration reshape our world?

那麼，請告訴我，氣候遷移將如何重塑我們的世界？

Yes, well, I mean, it's already happening.

是的，我的意思是，它已經發生了。

We're seeing last year, some 2 million people in Europe were affected by drought, for example.

例如，我們看到去年歐洲約有 200 萬人受到乾旱的影響。

If you think about 200 people from, or 280 or whatever, from Tuvalu are going to Australia.

如果你認為來自吐瓦魯的大約 200 人，或者 280 人，或者更多，將前往澳洲。

I mean, around 200 people died in floods in Valencia just last year.

我是說，就在去年，巴倫西亞就有約 200 人死於洪水。

You know, so these are very small numbers and this agreement is a tiny drop in the ocean, but it is significant because of course, every life counts.

你知道，這些都是很小的數字，這份協議只是滄海一粟，但它意義重大，因為每一個生命都很重要。

And what we're seeing as the temperature rises, as more energy gets locked into the atmosphere, we're seeing far more extreme weather conditions.

隨著氣溫的升高，更多的能量被鎖定在大氣中，我們看到的極端天氣情況也越來越多。

And what's happening is parts of the world are becoming unlivable and that will only increase as the decades go.

現在的情況是，世界上部分地區正變得無法生存，而且隨著時間的推移，這種情況只會越來越嚴重。

So, you know, we are expecting the most severe events, the most unlivable conditions are already being felt in the tropics and that tropical band of unlivability will expand further north and south.

是以，你知道，我們預計最嚴重的事件、最難以生存的條件已經在熱帶地區顯現，而熱帶難以生存帶將進一步向北和向南擴展。

And the more livable places, and these are not places which will be unaffected by climate change, but they're places that are better able to adapt, they will be in the north.

而更宜居的地方，這些地方並不是不受氣候變化影響的地方，而是適應能力更強的地方，它們將位於北部。

So we are going to see, we're already seeing this movement of life, of plants, of animals, of people, of capital, investments, agriculture, industry, all of human activity will start to move north.

是以，我們將會看到，我們已經看到這種生命、植物、動物、人類、資本、投資、農業、工業的移動，所有的人類活動都將開始向北移動。

And it's something which we need to prepare for.

It can bring huge opportunities to countries in the north that are suffering falling birth rates, but it also comes with a lot of challenges.

它可以為出生率下降的北方國家帶來巨大的機遇，但也伴隨著許多挑戰。

And we are seeing a lot of right-wing rhetoric that is very anti-migration at the moment.

目前，我們看到很多右翼言論都非常反移民。

How can the world prepare for this kind of scenario?

Well, there are many ways and agreements like the one that Australia and Tuvalu have reached is one way.

辦法有很多，像澳洲和吐瓦魯達成的協議就是一種辦法。

We need to start thinking very urgently about what it means when a country loses sovereignty.

我們亟需開始思考一個國家失去主權意味著什麼。

You know, when a place, a territory no longer exists, what does happen to that sovereignty?

要知道，當一個地方、一塊領土不復存在時，主權會發生什麼變化？

What happens to Pacific Island nations, Indian, low-lying Indian Ocean atolls?

太平洋島國、印度洋低地環礁會怎樣？

What happens when a third of the country, places like Bangladesh become unlivable?

當全國三分之一的地區，如孟加拉國變得無法生存時，會發生什麼？

We need to think about how these people are best relocated.

我們需要考慮如何更好地重新安置這些人。

It's much better to do it in a managed way, in a sensible, planned way before that emergency happens, before we're looking at evacuations, so that we can help provide those industrial bases, that new housing.

在緊急情況發生之前，在我們考慮撤離之前，以一種有管理的方式、合理的方式、有計劃的方式來做要好得多，這樣我們就可以幫助提供這些工業基地和新的住房。

We can replan the demographics of our world, which at the moment in the northern nations is very ageing.

我們可以重新規劃我們世界的人口結構，目前北方國家的人口老齡化程度很高。

There isn't that youthful labour force to bring in the taxes that can help keep that social contract going.

沒有那麼多年輕的勞動力為社會帶來稅收，從而使社會契約得以繼續。

And at the same time, there's huge potential in some of the most risky places on our planet, places where the population is still young and vibrant and has that potential to, you know, that human potential for labour, for ingenuity, to really bring forth the next generation, the 21st generation human bases that we're going to have.

與此同時，在地球上一些風險最大的地方也蘊藏著巨大的潛力，這些地方的人口仍然年輕，充滿活力，有潛力，你知道，人類的勞動潛力和創造力，能夠真正孕育出下一代，也就是我們將要擁有的第 21 代人類基礎。

New cities are going to have to be built in the far north and they will need populations.

必須在遙遠的北方建立新的城市，而這些城市需要人口。

Yeah, there is huge opportunity in making something positive out of a horrific situation.

是啊，從可怕的情況中創造出積極的東西，是一個巨大的機會。

But already today, and you mentioned it earlier, migration is a hot topic in many countries that would be possible destinations for climate refugees.

但今天，正如你剛才提到的，在許多可能成為氣候難民目的地的國家，移民已經成為一個熱門話題。

And the tendency right now is to curb migration rather than letting in more people.

現在的趨勢是遏制移民，而不是讓更多的人進來。

And we're already seeing labour shortages, you know, care shortages, all of these problems that you pointed out, that need a solution and that maybe migration would be a solution to already today.

我們已經看到了勞動力短缺，你知道，護理短缺，所有這些你所指出的問題，都需要一個解決方案，而移民也許就是今天的一個解決方案。

It's not really in the cards, especially with the far right exerting so much power right now here in Europe, but also in the United States.

這其實是不可能的，尤其是在極右翼勢力在歐洲和美國大行其道的情況下。

So how optimistic are you that the international community will rise to the occasion that there will be political will to actually make all these adjustments?

那麼，你對國際社會是否會奮起直追，是否會有政治意願做出所有這些調整感到樂觀？

是啊，我的意思是，這是真的。

We are seeing absolute lack of leadership, both on climate, on climate reality, on being the honest appraisal of where we are with this climate crisis, which is in a very dangerous position.

我們看到，無論是在氣候問題上，還是在氣候現實問題上，以及在誠實地評估我們目前所處的氣候危機方面，都絕對缺乏領導力，而氣候危機正處於非常危險的境地。

We're also not seeing honesty about human migration, human mobility, which is actually, you know, inevitable.

我們也沒有看到關於人類遷徙、人類流動的誠實，你知道，這其實是不可避免的。

We are all the end products of migration, which continues.

我們都是遷徙的最終產物，而遷徙仍在繼續。

I would say we are going through a blip at the moment, quite a bad place, with this kind of abdication of responsibility from centrist and left wing parties, but left and right really to challenge these far right narratives, these tropes, which are based on falsities.

我想說的是，我們目前正在經歷一個小插曲，這是一個相當糟糕的地方，中間派和左翼黨派放棄了這種責任，但左右派確實都在挑戰這些極右派的敘事，這些基於虛假的陳詞濫調。

Almost all of what comes out is based on false narrative, and it's very divisive.

幾乎所有的報道都是基於虛假的敘述，非常容易造成分裂。

If you think about the historical basis of where we are now, we have had, you know, most of history, leaders have wanted to bring people in.

如果你思考一下我們現在所處的歷史基礎，你知道，在歷史上的大部分時間裡，我們的領導人都希望把人們帶進來。

They've wanted, borders have been there to stop people leaving.

他們希望，邊界的存在是為了阻止人們離開。

It is an economic, it is an, it is economic fact that the more labour, the more people you have, the better, the stronger the labour force, the stronger the economy.

勞動力越多、人口越多、勞動力越強、經濟越強，這是一個經濟事實。

And so economists will tell you of the desperate need that pretty much all of European nations, including the United States, including, you know, even the most xenophobic places like Russia, they absolutely need more people to come in.

是以，經濟學家會告訴你，包括美國在內的幾乎所有歐洲國家，甚至像俄羅斯這樣最排外的地方，都迫切需要更多的人進來。

We are seeing a dishonest narrative that claims to be able to turn people away.

我們看到的是一種不誠實的說法，聲稱能夠將人們拒之門外。

That is not, that is, that is never going to work and it is never going to, that is never going to be a solution.

這是不可能的，這是不可能的，這永遠不會奏效，這永遠不會是一個解決辦法。

So before long, we are going to have to face up to this truth and nations will be competing over immigrants and the immigrants will go to the places where they feel most welcome, where they have the most opportunities.

是以，不久之後，我們將不得不正視這一事實，各國將為爭奪移民而展開競爭，移民將前往他們感到最受歡迎、機會最多的地方。

So it's worth bearing that in mind for the decades to come when we really need them for any sort of economic growth.

是以，在未來的幾十年裡，當我們真正需要它們來實現任何形式的經濟增長時，這一點值得牢記。

Most economies are stagnating at the moment.

目前，大多數經濟體都處於停滯狀態。

And I would bring up the example of Spain, actually, where they have been very, the leader has been very pragmatic and said, you know, we can go down that European paradigm of being very anti-migrant, of being, of saying we can reduce migration or we can be honest and say, look, we want a stronger economy.

實際上，我想以西班牙為例，他們的領導人一直非常務實，他們說，你知道，我們可以按照歐洲的模式，非常反移民，說我們可以減少移民，或者我們可以誠實地說，聽著，我們想要一個更強大的經濟。

We want more opportunity and potential for people who live here.

我們希望為生活在這裡的人們提供更多的機會和潛力。

And that that is absolutely based on having a stronger economy.

而這絕對是建立在更強大的經濟基礎之上的。

And therefore, we're going to accept more migration and we're going to make it work.

是以，我們將接受更多的移民，並使其發揮作用。

And in that time, you know, Spain's GDP has grown far greater than the rest of the European nations.

在此期間，西班牙國內生產總值的增長遠遠超過了其他歐洲國家。

It's also, you know, they've managed to raise the minimum wage by 50 percent because they've done it through careful policies.

還有，你知道，他們成功地將最低工資提高了 50%，因為他們通過謹慎的政策做到了這一點。

And I think that's a lesson we can all learn.

我想這是我們都能學到的一課。

If we want stronger economies, we have to, we have to be real.

如果我們想讓經濟更強大，就必須實事求是。

We have to be pragmatic and we have to be honest about what that takes.

我們必須實事求是，我們必須坦誠面對這一切。

Yeah, Gaia, we'll have to wrap up in a second.

But I don't just want to look at the countries that might take in migrants.

但我不想只看那些可能接收移民的國家。

I also want to talk about the people who are actually preparing to get on the move and the challenges that climate migration might pose for preserving their culture, you know, the culture of places like Tuvalu.

我還想談談那些正準備遷徙的人們，以及氣候遷徙可能對保護他們的文化（比如吐瓦魯的文化）帶來的挑戰。

What happens to the culture if the land no longer exists or the people who used to inhabit it don't live there anymore?

如果這片土地不復存在，或者曾經居住在這片土地上的人不再生活在那裡，文化會發生什麼變化？

Yes, thank you for bringing this up, because this is something that often gets lost and it's really very difficult.

是的，謝謝你提出這個問題，因為這是一個經常被遺忘的問題，而且真的非常困難。

And it's something that affects people in Tuvalu.

這也是影響吐瓦魯人民的事情。

It's affecting people in various parts of Africa where they've been forced to relocate because of persistent drought or whatever it is, low-lying islands.

它影響著非洲各地的人們，由於持續乾旱或其他原因，他們被迫搬遷到低窪島嶼。

It's something that will increasingly affect people in Germany and in Europe when they have to leave somewhere because it is persistently flooded or they live near the coast and that coastline is eroding and it's no longer safe.

當德國和歐洲的人們因為某個地方長期被洪水淹沒而不得不離開，或者他們住在海岸線附近，而海岸線正在被侵蝕，不再安全時，這將會對他們產生越來越大的影響。