Name: 中國經濟內部出現嚴重問題 (Something is going deeply wrong inside China's economy)
Uploaded: 2025-07-21T19:08:44.000Z
Duration: 13 min 5 s

現在進行式

Something strange is happening with Chinese economy.

中國經濟正在發生一些奇怪的事情。

to 不定詞

On one side, China is the fastest growing economy in the world, and it seems like China is about to overtake the United States and become the largest economy in the world.

一方面，中國是世界上經濟增長最快的國家，似乎中國即將超越美國，成為世界上最大的經濟體。

未來簡單式

And some people are hoping that it will replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.

一些人希望它能取代美元成為全球儲備貨幣。

But on the other side, if you look at China's GDP or debt to GDP ratio, it doesn't make sense, it's around 88 percent, and that is way less than the United States debt to GDP ratio at about 120 percent.

但另一方面，如果你看看中國的 GDP 或債務與 GDP 的比率，就會發現這並不合理，它約為 88%，遠遠低於美國債務與 GDP 的比率（約 120%）。

China has been growing way faster than the United States.

中國的增長速度遠遠超過美國。

It achieved in the last 30 years when it took the United States 250 years.

美國用了 250 年的時間，卻在最近 30 年取得了成就。

So it only makes sense that China will be filled of debt.

是以，中國債臺高築也就在情理之中了。

You cannot possibly make that kind of achievement without incurring a lot of debt.

要取得這樣的成就，不可能不揹負大量債務。

So how is it possible that China did all of that without having a debt to GDP ratio that is significantly bigger than the United States?

那麼，中國在做到這一切的同時，其債務與國內生產總值（GDP）之比卻遠遠高於美國，這怎麼可能呢？

But when you dig down into the Chinese economy, you will find out that not everything is as glamorous as it seems.

但是，當你深入研究中國經濟時，你會發現並非所有事情都像看上去那麼光鮮亮麗。

The debt to GDP ratio that we often talk about is the federal debt.

我們常說的債務與國內生產總值的比率是指聯邦債務。

So you have an entire government, and you have the federal government, and then you have the state and the local governments.

是以，你有一個完整的政府，你有聯邦政府，然後你有州政府和地方政府。

The federal government is the main entity that governs the country.

聯邦政府是管理國家的主要實體。

So in the United States, for example, you have the federal government in Washington, and then you have different states.

是以，以美國為例，華盛頓有聯邦政府，然後還有不同的州。

And the states, just like the federal government, have the ability to raise China.

各州與聯邦政府一樣，都有能力提高中國的稅收。

But when you look at local governments of China, you will realize that they have a debt ceiling.

但是，當你看看中國的地方政府，你就會發現他們有債務上限。

The Chinese local governments have a debt ceiling that they cannot possibly surpass.

中國地方政府的債務上限是不可能超過的。

So if you borrowed a certain amount of money, then good luck, you cannot borrow more than that.

是以，如果你借了一定數額的錢，那麼祝你好運，你不能再借了。

But what if the CCP government on the top of you had set targets at 7% GDP this year?

但是，如果你們上面的中共政府將今年的目標設定為 7% 的 GDP 呢？

How are you supposed to achieve those targets if you don't have the means to do that, if you don't have the money to build the roads, the bridges, the schools that will inflate the GDP and will allow China to achieve the figures of 7 or 8% growth annually?

如果你沒有辦法做到這一點，如果你沒有錢來修建道路、橋樑和學校，使國內生產總值膨脹，讓中國實現每年7%或8%的增長，你怎麼能實現這些目標呢？

That's why they came up with a brilliant solution.

是以，他們想出了一個絕妙的解決方案。

The local governments in China often create shell companies that they call them local government financial vehicles.

中國的地方政府經常創建空殼公司，他們稱之為地方政府財政工具。

The entire purpose of these corporations isn't to build something different, but rather, because the local state cannot possibly borrow more than it's allowed and it has a debt ceiling, it will create that company to raise money.

這些公司的全部目的並不是要建造一些與眾不同的東西，而是因為當地州政府不可能借到超過允許額度的錢，而且它有債務上限，所以它會創建這家公司來籌集資金。

So it will issue government bonds or I would say in this case, probably state bonds and will sell them to local banks.

是以，它將發行政府債券，或者在這種情況下，我認為可能是國家債券，並將其出售給當地銀行。

So these corporations over here are raising money from the banks.

是以，這些公司正在向銀行籌集資金。

The banks will gladly loan them the money because the local government will provide the land that it has as a collateral.

銀行會很樂意貸款給他們，因為當地政府會提供土地作為抵押。

So if you have the land as a collateral, then this loan that you have provided to the state or to this particular corporation that is being backed by the state is kind of guaranteed.

是以，如果你有土地作為抵押，那麼你向國家或由國家支持的特定公司提供的這筆貸款就有了某種保證。

And because the local government or the local state is being backed by the federal government, you can assume safely that these corporations that are backed by the local state are also being backed by the federal government, which means that nobody is going to allow these corporations to go bankrupt, which makes these loans very safe and guaranteed by the government.

由於地方政府或地方州政府得到聯邦政府的支持，你可以有把握地認為，這些得到地方州政府支持的公司也得到聯邦政府的支持，這意味著沒有人會允許這些公司破產，這使得這些貸款非常安全，並得到政府的擔保。

And that allowed the local governments to build massive projects all across the country, to build bridges, cities, roads, and everything else.

這樣一來，地方政府就可以在全國範圍內建設大規模的項目，修建橋樑、城市、道路等一切設施。

And every penny that the local government is spending is inflating GDP, which is allowing China to achieve this massive GDP growth.

而地方政府花的每一分錢都在拉高 GDP，這使得中國實現了巨大的 GDP 增長。

But without borrowing that much money, the GDP wouldn't grow in the first place.

但如果不借那麼多錢，國內生產總值首先就不會增長。

And because China is incentivized to inflate its GDP, sometimes or pretty often, those local governments are building projects that are not as profitable as they could possibly be.

而且，由於中國受激勵抬高 GDP，這些地方政府建設的項目有時甚至經常是無利可圖的。

You see, if you have one bridge and you build an entirely second bridge right beside it, it is going to inflate GDP growth.

你看，如果你有一座橋，而你又在旁邊建了一座完全相同的橋，那就會拉高國內生產總值的增長。

But will it make citizens much more productive?

但它會讓公民的工作效率大大提高嗎？

And if these projects are not profitable, they will come back haunting the local government.

而如果這些項目不能盈利，就會反過來困擾地方政府。

You see, anytime that you borrow money to build anything, it must be profitable for it to make economic sense.

要知道，無論何時借錢建造任何東西，都必須有利可圖才具有經濟意義。

Because you have borrowed money to build this project from a bank, and the bank loaned you that money and expects you to pay back that money plus interest.

因為你從銀行借錢來建設這個項目，銀行把錢借給你，並希望你償還這筆錢和利息。

And if the bridge that you have built is not profitable, then how are you supposed to pay back the bank plus interest that it's incurring, which is going to put you in a very jeopardizing position.

如果你建造的橋樑無法盈利，那麼你如何償還銀行的貸款和利息，這將使你陷入非常危險的境地。

And if you have done that on a massive scale, suddenly you will see yourself in a debt crisis.

如果你大規模地這樣做了，你會突然發現自己陷入了債務危機。

China has built probably over a thousand bridges by now.

現在，中國大概已經建造了一千多座橋樑。

But are all of these bridges are making people profitable?

但是，所有這些橋樑都能讓人們獲利嗎？

If you want to build something in the US or many European countries, it's not difficult, it's not easy to build that because you need to make sure that the bridge you're building or the road that you're building or infrastructure you're building, where you are going to spend 20-50 billion dollars to build it, it must pay off.

如果你想在美國或許多歐洲國家建造一些東西，這並不難，也不容易，因為你需要確保你要建造的橋樑、你要建造的道路或你要建造的基礎設施，你要花費 200 億至 500 億美元來建造它，它必須有回報。

And you must present us with a very clear plan of when exactly it's going to pay off.

你必須向我們提出一個非常明確的計劃，告訴我們什麼時候會有回報。

Yes, a lot of infrastructure products do not pay off instantly because infrastructure projects, especially, for example, the railway, will take 20-30, sometimes up to 50 years to pay back.

是的，很多基礎設施產品並不能立即收回成本，因為基礎設施項目，尤其是鐵路項目，需要 20-30 年，有時甚至長達 50 年才能收回成本。

But you know that it will pay off if this project is going to increase the productivity of citizens by this much.

但你知道，如果這個項目能將公民的生產力提高這麼多，就會有回報的。

But if you don't have a clear plan and it doesn't seem that it will ever pay off, then it's a failed project.

但是，如果你沒有一個明確的計劃，而且似乎永遠不會有回報，那麼這就是一個失敗的項目。

In the short run, it is going to show that the GDP has grown because money was spent and the bridge was built or the train was built.

在短期內，它將顯示出國內生產總值的增長，因為錢花了，橋建了，火車也建了。

But in the long run, if you close down that railway, if you close down that subway station, if nobody is going to use that route, then you still must pay back the debt that you have borrowed to build that road, which means that might default on that debt because it was not a profitable project.

但從長遠來看，如果你關閉了那條鐵路，如果你關閉了那個地鐵站，如果沒有人會使用那條線路，那麼你仍然必須償還為修建這條道路而借貸的債務，這意味著你可能會拖欠債務，因為這不是一個有利可圖的項目。

It's very difficult to estimate how much these companies have borrowed from the banks, but according to different estimates, it's something between 75 to 140% of the entire GDP.

很難估計這些公司從銀行借了多少錢，但根據不同的估計，大約佔整個 GDP 的 75% 到 140%。

And what makes it so difficult to find that out is because these corporations are private corporations, and they are not obligated by any law to publish their financial statements to the government, to the public, so we don't know, we can't simply take a look at their balance sheet and look at their liabilities and say, oh, look at that debt, they have this amount of debt.

我們之所以難以發現這些問題，是因為這些公司都是私營企業，沒有任何法律規定它們有義務向政府、向公眾公佈財務報表，所以我們不知道，我們不能簡單地看看它們的資產負債表，看看它們的負債，然後說，哦，看看這些債務，它們有這麼多債務。

But based on all the analysis that have been done by the independent researchers, it seems like it's anything between 75% to 140%.

但根據獨立研究人員所做的所有分析，似乎在 75% 到 140% 之間。

If you take that and you add it up to the total federal debt that the government has, suddenly it's not as glamorous as it seems.

如果你把這個數字與政府的聯邦債務總額加起來，突然發現它並不像看起來那麼迷人。

And the total national debt of China is way bigger than anybody expects.

而中國的國債總額遠遠超出了所有人的預期。

This is the major problem that a lot of states in China has.

這也是中國許多州面臨的主要問題。

All the revenues, all the tax revenues that the states are generating from their taxpayers are being instantly directed into paying the interest payments on the debt that they have borrowed.

各州從納稅人那裡獲得的所有收入、所有稅收都被立即用於支付他們所借債務的利息。

Imagine for a moment that all the taxes that you generate directly go into paying off the interest because you have borrowed so much money over the last 30 years.

試想一下，由於您在過去 30 年中借了這麼多錢，您所產生的所有稅收都直接用於償還利息。

But if you default on these debts, you will instantly create a domino effect that will be extremely difficult to stop.

但是，如果你拖欠這些債務，就會立即產生多米諾骨牌效應，而且很難停止。

The banks have loaned their money to their local government financial vehicle corporations.

銀行把錢貸給了地方政府的金融工具公司。

These corporations are being backed directly by the state.

這些公司得到了國家的直接支持。

So if these corporations will default on their loan, then suddenly banks won't be receiving their interest.

是以，如果這些公司拖欠貸款，銀行就會突然收不到利息。

In fact, the banks won't be receiving their loans back.

So these banks will be defaulting massively, which means that these corporations will start defaulting as well.

是以，這些銀行將大規模違約，這意味著這些公司也將開始違約。

And all of this burden will be on the state.

而所有這些負擔都將由國家來承擔。

When the state finds itself in a position where it can actually save both these corporations and the banks, it will rely on the government because it's accountable and it reports to the federal government, which means that the entire debt that all the states have accumulated will be on the shoulders of the government.

當州政府發現自己實際上可以拯救這些公司和銀行時，就會依賴政府，因為政府是負責任的，它向聯邦政府報告，這意味著所有州積累的全部債務都將壓在政府的肩上。

Which is why the real debt to GDP ratio of the government is anything between 220 to 300 percent, which makes it significantly worse than the debt to GDP ratio that the United States has.

這就是為什麼政府的實際債務與 GDP 之比介於 220% 到 300% 之間，大大低於美國的債務與 GDP 之比。

Even if you account all the debt to GDP ratio that local states in the United States have, it won't come even close to China.

即使把美國各州的債務與 GDP 之比全部計算在內，也無法與中國相提並論。

Because unlike China, the United States does not have these interesting schemes to raise money for the market.

因為與中國不同，美國沒有這些有趣的為市場籌集資金的計劃。

So the states are very careful the way they raise their money, and they also have their different kind of rules.

是以，各州在籌集資金時都非常謹慎，也有各自不同的規定。

But in China, even though you have the exact same system, they have actually created a loophole where the states can create corporations and then lease their land to these corporations that they can use as collateral to raise money from the banks.

但在中國，儘管你們有完全相同的制度，但他們實際上創造了一個漏洞，即各州可以創建公司，然後將土地租賃給這些公司，他們可以用這些土地作為抵押向銀行融資。

If the infrastructure projects that these corporations have built are not profitable, they won't be able to pay the bank and if the banks will be defaulted because they are not getting their money back, it will come back haunting the state and if the state defaults, then it will be bailed out by the federal government anyways.

如果這些公司建設的基礎設施項目無法盈利，他們就無法向銀行付款，如果銀行因無法收回資金而違約，就會反過來困擾州政府，如果州政府違約，那麼無論如何都會得到聯邦政府的救助。

It reminds me a lot of the 2008 financial crisis, even though that it's slightly different, but the scheme is very very similar to everything that happened in the United States back in the early 2000s.

這讓我想起了 2008 年的金融危機，儘管情況略有不同，但這一計劃與本世紀初在美國發生的一切非常相似。

In the early 2000s, they used this system to build houses all across the So the banks provided the mortgages to everybody even if these mortgages were not profitable at all.

本世紀初，他們利用這一系統在全美各地建造房屋，銀行向所有人提供抵押貸款，即使這些抵押貸款根本無利可圖。

So they gave mortgages to everybody who would actually get them.

是以，他們把抵押貸款發放給了每一個真正能拿到貸款的人。

They created the mortgage-backed securities.

他們創造了抵押貸款支持證券。

Now, the mortgage-backed securities were created by the banks and then sold to the investors.

現在，抵押貸款支持證券由銀行創建，然後出售給投資者。

When mortgage-backed securities defaulted because they were not profitable at all, the banks went bankrupt and the investors saw their valuations of their mortgage-backed plummet to zero.

當抵押貸款支持證券因根本無利可圖而違約時，銀行破產了，投資者的抵押貸款支持證券估值驟降為零。

And all of this scheme worked because everybody thought that house prices are going to continue rising.

所有這些計劃之所以奏效，是因為每個人都認為房價會繼續上漲。

And secondly, all these mortgage-backed securities are being guaranteed by the government because a lot of mortgages were guaranteed by the government.

其次，所有這些抵押貸款支持證券都由政府擔保，因為很多抵押貸款都是由政府擔保的。

So everything came back haunting the government which forced the government to print massive amounts of money and bail the entire market out which created massive inflation and devalued the one of the biggest bubbles in history.

於是，一切又重新困擾著政府，迫使政府印製大量鈔票，拯救整個市場，這造成了大規模通貨膨脹，使歷史上最大的保麗龍之一貶值。

Now, there are a lot of possibilities of what could possibly happen to China.

現在，中國有很多可能發生的情況。

On the one side, it might actually turn into Japan 2.0 and put yourself in a deflationary environment.

一方面，它可能會變成日本 2.0，使自己處於通貨緊縮的環境中。

You can think of it this way that China has maxed out its credit cards and it no longer can borrow money massively.

你可以這樣想，中國的信用卡已經刷爆，再也無法大量借錢了。

Secondly, because you maxed out your entire credit card, now you have to pay a lot of entries on that credit card.

其次，由於你刷爆了整張信用卡，現在你必須用這張信用卡支付大量的賬單。

So every penny that you earn must go directly into paying off the entries on that credit card, which limits your growth.

是以，你賺到的每一分錢都必須直接用於償還信用卡的分錄，這就限制了你的增長。

So all you do from now onwards is make money and pay the entries on that debt.

所以，從現在開始，你要做的就是賺錢和償還債務。

The only way to get out of this crisis is to ensure that all the infrastructure projects that you have built will become profitable, they will start paying off these corporations, these corporations will earn a lot of money for the local states, and the local states will be to pay off all the debts that they have actually incurred over the last 30 years.

擺脫危機的唯一辦法就是確保你們建設的所有基礎設施項目都能盈利，它們將開始償還這些公司的債務，這些公司將為地方州賺取大量資金，而地方州將償還它們在過去 30 年裡實際欠下的所有債務。

Otherwise, it can turn into a domino effect and destroy the entire country and the entire economy.

否則，它就會變成多米諾骨牌效應，摧毀整個國家和整個經濟。

The Chinese government is most likely aware of this crisis and they are trying to orchestrate a soft landing.

中國政府很可能已經意識到了這場危機，他們正在努力策劃軟著陸。

Yes, maybe the Chinese GDP will stop growing as fast as it did in the past, but if it doesn't crash, that is already great news for the Chinese economy.

是的，也許中國的 GDP 將不再像過去那樣快速增長，但如果它沒有崩潰，這對中國經濟來說已經是個好消息了。

First of all, it means that China is nowhere close to overtaking the United States.

首先，這意味著中國遠未超越美國。

Despite all the problems that the US is going through, despite all the debt problems that the United States is going through, China is a much worse financial position.

儘管美國正在經歷各種問題，儘管美國正在經歷各種債務問題，但中國的財政狀況要糟糕得多。

But regardless of what happens in China, it is going to impact the entire world, including the markets in the United States.

但無論中國發生什麼，它都將影響整個世界，包括美國市場。