Name: 特朗普 2.0 與臺灣：特朗普將引發還是阻止戰爭？| DW News (Trump 2.0 and Taiwan: Will Trump cause or prevent war? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-04-06T19:50:39.000Z
Duration: 13 min 17 s

Donald Trump's return to the White House has upended America's place in the world.

唐納德-特朗普重返白宮顛覆了美國在世界上的地位。

程度副詞

In just a few weeks, his administration has lambasted U.S. allies fighting for survival, reshaped the global economic order, and cast doubt on some of Washington's oldest and most trusted friendships, including here in Taiwan, the self-ruled democracy claimed by Beijing.

在短短几周內，他的政府抨擊了為生存而戰的美國盟友，重塑了全球經濟秩序，並對華盛頓一些最古老、最值得信賴的友誼產生了懷疑，其中包括臺灣--北京宣稱的自治民主國家。

As Trump defies the norms of global politics, Taipei faces a sobering reality, re-evaluating how it deals with its chief security guarantor, while military pressure from its adversary China intensifies.

在特朗普蔑視全球政治準則之際，臺北面臨著一個清醒的現實，它正在重新評估如何與其主要安全保證國打交道，而來自其對手中國的軍事壓力卻在加劇。

For those observing Taiwan, it's an anxious time.

對於觀察臺灣的人來說，這是一個焦慮的時刻。

I do worry about the possibility that Taiwan could be put on the negotiating table between President Trump and Xi Jinping.

我確實擔心臺灣有可能被擺上特朗普總統和習近平的談判桌。

So in this video, we're asking one question, does Trump make Taiwan more or less vulnerable to Chinese attack?

是以，在這段視頻中，我們要問一個問題：特朗普會讓臺灣更容易還是更不容易受到中國的攻擊？

We're the first civilian drill to take place since Taiwan's president set up a committee for whole of society resilience last year.

這是自去年臺灣總統成立全社會抗災委員會以來的首次民間演習。

The aim of the drill is to ensure Taiwan can continue to run during a national emergency.

演習的目的是確保臺灣能在國家緊急狀態下繼續運行。

Today's drill is simulating an earthquake, which has caused a tsunami, which is about to hit Taiwan, but also an unspecified attack on critical national infrastructure.

今天的演習模擬了一場地震，地震引發的海嘯即將襲擊臺灣，同時還模擬了對國家重要基礎設施的不明攻擊。

Although everyone knows that that probably means China.

儘管大家都知道，這可能意味著中國。

Taiwan's president is just over there at a medical facility where they're simulating treating patients with major injuries.

臺灣總統就在那邊的醫療設施裡，他們正在模擬治療重傷病人。

Officials say these drills are unscripted, but you can see from how staged some of this feels that it feels very far from reality.

官員們說這些演習是沒有腳本的，但你可以從其中一些演習的感覺看出，它與現實相去甚遠。

Even so, Taiwan's government is underscoring their importance, just as the commitments of its chief back at Washington look more uncertain.

即便如此，臺灣政府仍在強調它們的重要性，而其負責人在華盛頓的承諾則顯得更加不確定。

For decades, an unspoken but implicit guarantee that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if China attacked has helped keep peace across the Taiwan Strait.

幾十年來，如果中國進攻臺灣，美國將保衛臺灣這一不言而喻的默示保證幫助維持了臺灣海峽兩岸的和平。

But during his 2024 election campaign, Trump claimed falsely that Taiwan had stolen America's semiconductor business, and so doubts he'd be willing to sacrifice U.S. resources, let alone lives, for Taiwan.

但在 2024 年競選期間，特朗普謊稱臺灣竊取了美國的半導體業務，是以懷疑他是否願意為臺灣犧牲美國的資源，更不用說生命了。

She's a leading expert on U.S. relations with China and Taiwan based in Washington.

她是美國與中國大陸和臺灣關係方面的權威專家，常駐華盛頓。

We all know the history that Trump has not seen Taiwan of great importance to the United States.

我們都知道，特朗普沒有看到臺灣對美國具有重大意義的歷史。

There's always the uncertainty about whether President Trump would in fact come to Taiwan's aid if China were to attack.

如果中國發動進攻，特朗普總統是否會援助臺灣，這始終是個未知數。

For many in Taiwan, events in Europe are core to their concerns.

對許多臺灣人來說，歐洲發生的事件是他們關注的核心問題。

The way Trump has downgraded American commitments to Ukraine sparked fears he could do the same to them.

特朗普將美國對烏克蘭的承諾降級的做法引發了人們的擔憂，擔心他也會這樣對待烏克蘭。

And that could embolden Chinese leader Xi Jinping to make a move against Taiwan.

這可能會讓中國領導人習近平更加大膽地對臺灣採取行動。

That's despite senior Trump officials saying the reason they want to de-emphasize Europe is to confront Beijing.

儘管特朗普的高級官員們表示，他們之所以不想強調歐洲，是為了對抗北京。

Doesn't Trump's unpredictability make life much more difficult for Taiwan?

特朗普的不可預測性不是讓臺灣的日子更難過了嗎？

What you have today is a coming together of these factors of China having increasingly the capability to take Taiwan at an acceptable cost.

今天，這些因素匯聚在一起，使中國越來越有能力以可接受的代價攻佔臺灣。

The United States may not have sufficient capability to defend Taiwan.

美國可能沒有足夠的能力保衛臺灣。

And then, of course, the question of the president himself and his aversion to getting involved in any kind of a military conflict.

當然，還有總統本人的問題，以及他對捲入任何軍事衝突的反感。

As Chinese military intimidation increases, for Taiwan, all that could be a perfect but deadly storm.

隨著中國軍事恐嚇的增加，對臺灣來說，這一切可能是一場完美但致命的風暴。

Facing Trump's calls for partners to do more for their own defense, this is one area where Taiwan is trying to become more self-sufficient.

面對特朗普要求合作伙伴為自身防務做出更多努力的呼籲，這是臺灣正試圖變得更加自給自足的一個領域。

So we've come down to Chiayi in southern Taiwan, which is a city where the government has been investing a lot in drone research and innovation.

是以，我們來到了臺灣南部的嘉義，這是一個政府在無人機研究和創新方面投入大量資金的城市。

And today we're attending a competition where six teams are competing, mostly comprised of university students but also some drone company professionals as well.

今天，我們參加了一場比賽，共有六支隊伍參賽，其中大部分是大學生，也有一些無人機公司的專業人員。

The challenges set out for the teams are designed to simulate real war situations.

為參賽隊設置的挑戰旨在模擬真實的戰爭環境。

Chai Junyu is a software engineer at Tron Future, a Taiwanese company set up in 2018 that makes drones and anti-drone detection systems.

柴俊宇是 Tron Future 公司的軟件工程師，該公司成立於 2018 年，是一家制造無人機和反無人機探測系統的臺灣公司。

I asked Lin Junliang, vice president of Nara Labs, a tech innovation center, about the main challenges facing Taiwan's drone industry.

我向科技創新中心奈良實驗室（Nara Labs）副總裁林俊良詢問了臺灣無人機產業面臨的主要挑戰。

The question of who is making what is a crucial one for Taiwan.

誰在製造什麼，對臺灣來說是一個至關重要的問題。

Ukraine's successful use of drones to fight a much larger enemy has boosted global demand.

烏克蘭成功地利用無人機打擊了更強大的敵人，從而刺激了全球需求。

But the world leader in producing commercial drones and drone parts is China.

但是，在生產商用無人機和無人機零部件方面，中國居於世界領先地位。

With the U.S. trying to de-risk supply chains away from China, Taiwan hopes filling that gap will keep Trump close.

美國正試圖將供應鏈的風險從中國大陸轉移出去，臺灣希望填補這一空白，與特朗普保持密切關係。

That idea of creating interdependence fits in with Taiwan's so-called Silicon Shield.

這種建立相互依存關係的理念與臺灣所謂的 "硅盾 "不謀而合。

That's the concept that America will protect Taiwan from China because the island produces 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors, the brains of modern electronics.

這就是 "美國將保護臺灣免受中國傷害 "的概念，因為臺灣生產世界上最先進的半導體--現代電子產品的大腦--的90%。

But even here, there's a problem for Taiwan.

但即使在這裡，臺灣也有一個問題。

You know, Taiwan, they stole our chip business.

要知道，臺灣搶走了我們的芯片業務。

They want us to protect and they want protection.

他們希望我們保護，他們也希望得到保護。

They don't pay us money for the protection, you know?

他們不付我們保護費，你知道嗎？

That world-beating chip industry Taiwan's so proud of means it has one of the largest trade surpluses with the United States.

臺灣引以為豪的芯片產業世界領先，這意味著臺灣是與美國貿易順差最大的國家之一。

And that led Trump to slap tariffs of 32% on imports from Taiwan.

這導致特朗普對從臺灣進口的商品徵收 32% 的關稅。

Wei, the CEO of TSMC, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

臺灣半導體制造公司（TSMC）首席執行官 Wei。

Today, Taiwan Semiconductor is announcing that they will be investing at least $100 billion in new capital in the United States over the next short period of time to build state-of-the-art semiconductor manufacturing facilities.

今天，臺灣半導體公司宣佈，他們將在未來很短的時間內在美國投入至少 1000 億美元的新資金，建設最先進的半導體生產設施。

TSMC had already invested in the U.S. state of Arizona.

臺積電已經在美國亞利桑那州進行了投資。

但是，這項新的宣佈是巨大的。

In Taiwan, it sparked fears that its silicon shield was being eroded.

在臺灣，這引發了人們對其硅屏蔽正在受到侵蝕的擔憂。

That if its companies were making advanced chips in the U.S., it would reduce Washington's motivation to protect Taiwan.

如果其公司在美國生產先進的芯片，就會降低華盛頓保護臺灣的動機。

Wei held another press conference with Taiwan's president to try to allay the public's fears.

魏則西與臺灣總統再次召開新聞發佈會，試圖消除公眾的擔憂。

Even officials across the strait have taken notice.

就連海峽對岸的官員也注意到了這一點。

So we're traveling to the beating heart of Taiwan's silicon shield, Hsinchu, to speak with an employee of TSMC.

是以，我們來到臺灣硅盾的心臟--新竹，採訪臺積電的一位員工。

They've requested anonymity because they're not authorized to speak to media.

他們要求匿名，因為他們無權接受媒體採訪。

We want to know how vulnerable TSMC is feeling and whether they're willing to invest in Taiwan.

我們想知道臺積電的脆弱程度，以及他們是否願意在臺灣投資。

But the move to set up manufacturing in the U.S. was a result of American pressure.

但在美國建立生產基地的舉動是迫於美國的壓力。

On the surface, I can't say it's that direct.

從表面上看，我不能說它有多直接。

But I think there's still some political information in there.

但我認為其中仍有一些政治資訊。

If more advanced chips were moved to the U.S., would you be worried that this strategy would destroy Taiwan's silicon shield?

如果更先進的芯片被轉移到美國，您會擔心這一戰略會破壞臺灣的硅屏蔽嗎？

Some of them might be replicated in the form of chips.

其中一些可能會以芯片的形式複製。

In Taiwan, there's real concern about America's position and the continued strength of the silicon shield.

在臺灣，人們對美國的立場和硅屏蔽的持續強度確實感到擔憂。

And yet, there are signs of continued good relations.

然而，有跡象表明，雙方關係依然良好。

In February, Washington quietly unfroze $870 million worth of security assistance for Taiwan.

今年 2 月，華盛頓悄然解凍了對臺灣價值 8.7 億美元的安全援助。

And Taiwan's president has pledged to increase defense spending to 3% of GDP.

臺灣總統已承諾將國防開支提高到國內生產總值的 3%。

Although some U.S. administration officials have since called for it to go as high as 10%.

儘管一些美國政府官員後來呼籲將這一比例提高到 10%。

This is Li Wen, a spokesperson for Taiwan's presidential office.

The security partnership between Taiwan and the U.S. remains very strong.

臺灣和美國之間的安全夥伴關係仍然非常牢固。

When it comes to Taiwan's security, there's also an important principle to remember.

在臺灣安全問題上，還有一個重要原則需要牢記。

We must help ourselves before others can help us.

在別人幫助我們之前，我們必須先幫助自己。

Taiwan must bear the most responsibility for its own security.

臺灣必須為自身安全承擔最大責任。

And Taiwan does not take any foreign military assistance for granted. 10% is not attainable for Taiwan at the moment.

臺灣也不會理所當然地接受任何外國軍事援助。臺灣目前無法達到 10%。

However, we want to continue to work with our like-minded international partners to continue to strengthen our defense.

然而，我們希望繼續與志同道合的國際夥伴合作，繼續加強我們的國防。

What does all this mean for Taiwan's future?

這一切對臺灣的未來意味著什麼？

Some say Trump could compel Taiwan to more urgently strengthen its own defenses.

有人說，特朗普可能會迫使臺灣更緊迫地加強自身防禦。

And at the same time, his aversion to war with China could also play in Taiwan's favor.

同時，他對與中國開戰的反感也會對臺灣有利。

I like to think that because President Trump does not want to be drawn into a war, that he will do his utmost to strengthen deterrence and send signals to Xi Jinping that the United States would defend Taiwan.

我認為，由於特朗普總統不想捲入戰爭，他將盡最大努力加強威懾，並向習近平發出美國將保衛臺灣的信號。

Because then President Trump will never have to face the conundrum of choosing whether or not to defend Taiwan if Beijing attacks.

因為這樣一來，特朗普總統就永遠不必面對這樣的難題：如果北京發動攻擊，是否要保衛臺灣？

Looking ahead to the next four years, what are your chief concerns about the cross-strait situation?

展望未來四年，您對兩岸局勢的主要關切是什麼？

There is certainly a scenario in which Xi Jinping decides that it is time to use force against Taiwan, maybe because he calculates that the United States would not come to Taiwan's defense.

肯定會有這樣一種情況，即習近平決定是時候對臺灣動武了，也許是因為他估計到美國不會來保衛臺灣。

To date, China has been the country that has been changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.

迄今為止，中國一直是改變臺灣海峽現狀的國家。

And I think that the U.S. and Taiwan have to ensure that they understand what will deter China and what could potentially provoke China.

我認為，美國和臺灣都必須確保他們瞭解哪些因素會威懾中國，哪些因素可能會激怒中國。

This is a crucial question for the future.

Millions of lives depend on leaders in Beijing, Washington and Taipei getting it right.

數百萬人的生命取決於北京、華盛頓和臺北的領導人能否正確對待。