Name: 曾經的電子支付巨頭PayPal陷入危機 (PayPal Is In Crisis)
Uploaded: 2025-01-11T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 16 min 13 s

The last three years have been nothing short of disastrous for PayPal.

過去三年對 PayPal 來說簡直是災難性的。

程度副詞

After nearly a decade of exponential growth and a parabolic stock price, the stock lost 85% of its value in 2022.

在經歷了近十年的指數式增長和拋物線般的股價後，該公司股價在 2022 年下跌了 85%。

分詞構句

This was caused by a multitude of factors, posing an existential threat to PayPal, such as the rise of competing payment methods like Apple Pay, as well as the stagnation of ecommerce as the pandemic subsided and people went back to brick and mortar shopping.

這是由多種因素造成的，對 PayPal 的生存構成了威脅，如 Apple Pay 等競爭性支付方式的崛起，以及隨著疫情的消退和人們重回實體店購物，電子商務的停滯不前。

But in December of 2024, things went from bad to worse when it became the subject of massive fraud allegations.

但在 2024 年 12 月，事情變得越來越糟，因為它成為了大規模欺詐指控的對象。

A popular YouTuber released an investigation that exposed that one of PayPal's biggest acquisitions, an online coupon aggregator called Honey, was engaging in what could turn out to be one of the most blatant and shocking online shopping frauds by a major company in recent memory.

一位著名的 YouTuber 發佈了一份調查報告，揭露 PayPal 最大的併購對象之一，一家名為 Honey 的在線優惠券聚合商，正在從事近期記憶中最明目張膽、最令人震驚的大公司在線購物欺詐行為。

It is now facing a class action lawsuit seeking damages on behalf of thousands of victims.

目前，該公司正面臨一項集體訴訟，要求代表數千名受害者賠償損失。

In this video, we'll examine the realities of PayPal's fundamental business model, how it's dealing with the end of its exponential growth period, and why its days of hyper-growth are behind it.

在本影片中，我們將探討 PayPal 基本業務模式的現實情況、它如何應對指數增長期的結束，以及為什麼它的高速增長時代已經過去。

PayPal is a digital wallet that ordinary consumers can use to pay for online purchases or transfer money.

PayPal 是一個數位錢包，普通消費者可以用它來支付網購或轉帳。

They fund their PayPal wallets by transferring money from their bank accounts.

他們通過從銀行賬戶轉帳為 PayPal 錢包加值。

Then they can pay for online shopping directly from their PayPal account.

然後，他們就可以直接用自己的 PayPal 帳戶支付網上購物費用。

From the consumer's perspective, it's like using cash from a physical wallet at a physical store, except it's using PayPal at an online store.

從消費者的角度來看，這就像在實體店使用實體錢包中的現金，只不過是在網上商店使用 PayPal。

PayPal can take a lot of credit for bringing casual consumer commerce into the internet age.

PayPal 將休閒消費商務帶入互聯網時代，功不可沒。

In the early 2000s, e-commerce and the internet were still in its early stages.

本世紀初，電子商務和互聯網仍處於初期階段。

For technical reasons, many companies that wanted to sell their merchandise online were still unable to accept credit cards over the internet.

由於技術原因，許多希望在網上銷售商品的公司仍然無法通過互聯網接受信用卡。

This was the main barrier to some companies, particularly smaller companies, but the biggest benefit that PayPal brought to online transactions was security.

這是一些公司，尤其是小公司面臨的主要障礙，但 PayPal 為線上交易帶來的最大好處是安全。

Typing your credit card information into a website and authorizing them to charge your card was a risky proposition, particularly before the development of modern internet security protocols.

在網站上輸入你的信用卡資訊並授權他們從你的卡上扣款是一件很冒險的事情，尤其是在現代互聯網安全協議發展之前。

Consumers were understandably wary of handing over their credit card info to potentially untrustworthy vendors, or even to large, reputable vendors, for fear that their card info could be intercepted by hackers or malware.

消費者擔心自己的信用卡資訊會被駭客或惡意軟體截獲，所以不敢將信用卡資訊交給可能不值得信任的供應商，甚至是信譽良好的大型供應商，這是可以理解的。

With PayPal, you tell PayPal itself to make a payment to the seller, and they only send the amount of money that you authorized.

通過 PayPal，你可以讓 PayPal 本身向賣家付款，他們只發送你授權的金額。

You only have to worry about the trustworthiness and security of your interaction with PayPal, a company that has built its reputation and business model around these issues.

你只需擔心與 PayPal 互動的可信度和安全性，因為 PayPal 公司的聲譽和業務模式就是圍繞這些問題建立起來的。

This made paying for things online much more safe and secure, making PayPal a wildly successful innovation in the consumer finance space.

這使得網上支付更加安全可靠，PayPal 也是以成為消費金融領域一項成功的創新。

For most of the 2000s and early 2010s, PayPal was owned by the e-commerce giant, eBay. eBay was able to integrate PayPal as its primary payment method seamlessly, and PayPal's adoption by consumers grew steadily.

在 2000 年代和 2010 年代初的大部分時間裡，PayPal 由電子商務巨頭 eBay 擁有。eBay 將 PayPal 無縫整合為其主要支付方式，PayPal 在消費者中的應用穩步增長。

In fact, by the early 2010s, PayPal had become a business that had grown much bigger than just the native payment system for eBay, and earned almost as much revenue as the rest of eBay combined.

事實上，到 2010 年代初，PayPal 的業務規模已遠遠超過 eBay 的原生支付系統，其收入幾乎相當於 eBay 其他業務的總和。

It was also clear that with the rise of e-commerce, it had great potential to grow even more.

此外，隨著電子商務的興起，它顯然還有更大的發展潛力。

People needed to pay for online purchases for much more than just online auctions for trinkets and used cars.

人們在網上購物需要支付的費用遠不止網上拍賣的小飾品和二手車。

This was also around the time when Amazon and other e-commerce sites were really starting to take market share.

這也正是亞馬遜和其他電子商務網站真正開始搶佔市場份額的時候。

And yet, Amazon did not accept PayPal as a payment method on its site, in large part because it was owned by eBay, a key competitor.

然而，亞馬遜並不接受 PayPal 作為其網站的付款方式，這在很大程度上是因為 PayPal 的所有者是 eBay，而 eBay 是亞馬遜的主要競爭對手。

In 2014, the activist investor Carl Icahn recognized this, and realized that there could be significant value separating eBay from PayPal.

2014 年，激進投資者卡爾-伊坎（Carl Icahn）認識到了這一點，並意識到將 eBay 與 PayPal 分離可能會帶來巨大的價值。

He built up a position in eBay stock and wrote an open letter to shareholders, asking them to call for a spinoff of PayPal. eBay initially resisted, but eventually agreed to spin off PayPal in the second part of 2014.

他建立了 eBay 股票倉位，並寫了一封致股東的公開信，要求他們呼籲分拆 PayPal。eBay 起初抵制，但最終同意在 2014 年下半年分拆 PayPal。

The spinoff of PayPal has been a huge success.

On the day the decision was announced, eBay stock went up 7.5%.

決定宣佈當天，eBay 股價上漲了 7.5%。

As an independent company, PayPal pursued relationships with other e-commerce sites that eBay may have considered competitors.

作為一家獨立公司，PayPal 尋求與 eBay 可能認為是競爭對手的其他電子商務網站建立關係。

It also expanded into new payments markets that eBay would not have been interested in, such as POS devices and brick-and-mortar retail establishments.

它還拓展了 eBay 不感興趣的新支付市場，如 POS 設備和實體零售店。

Throughout the rest of the 2010s, PayPal grew rapidly, with its revenue growing double-digit percentages each year.

在 2010 年代餘下的時間裡，PayPal 發展迅速，收入每年都以兩位數的百分比增長。

Its net income exploded, increasing by five times in five years, from about half a billion dollars in 2014 to almost two and a half billion dollars in 2019.

其淨收入呈爆炸式增長，五年內增長了五倍，從 2014 年的約 5 億美元增至 2019 年的近 25 億美元。

In the years since the mid-2010s, PayPal has grown into a diverse business, but its core money-making operations have largely stayed the same.

自 2010 年代中期以來，PayPal 已發展成為一家多元化企業，但其核心賺錢業務基本保持不變。

To understand how PayPal makes the bulk of its money, we first have to understand how the traditional credit card system works.

要了解 PayPal 如何賺取大部分資金，我們首先要了解傳統信用卡系統是如何運作的。

The normal system can be broadly split up into five different types of participants.

正常系統大致可分為五種不同類型的參與者。

The buyer, the seller, the credit card network, the issuing bank, and the merchant acquirer.

買方、賣方、信用卡網絡、發卡銀行和收單銀行。

The buyer and seller are self-explanatory.

The buyer is the person who wants to buy something that the seller has to offer.

買方是希望購買賣方所提供產品的人。

The issuing bank is the bank that the buyer has an account with, like Chase, Citi, or Bank of America, just to name a few of the biggest.

發卡銀行是指買方擁有帳戶的銀行，如大通銀行、花旗銀行或美國銀行等幾家最大的銀行。

This bank holds the buyer's money that is eventually used to make the purchases.

該銀行持有買方的資金，這些資金最終用於購買。

The merchant acquirer is conceptually like the bank for the seller.

從概念上講，收單銀行就像是賣方的銀行。

It receives payments made by the buyer on behalf of the seller.

Some well-known examples of merchant acquirers are Toast, Stripe, and Clover, but there are other large ones as well.

眾所周知的商戶收單機構有 Toast、Stripe 和 Clover，但也有其他大型收單機構。

And finally, there's the credit card network, the biggest of whom are American Express, Visa, and MasterCard.

最後是信用卡網絡，其中最大的是美國運通卡、維薩卡和萬事達卡。

The credit card network provides the infrastructure and communication protocols for the merchant acquirer and issuing bank to communicate with each other to execute transactions.

信用卡網絡為商戶收單機構和發卡銀行提供基礎設施和通信協議，以便相互通信，執行交易。

Instead of having three separate middlemen in the issuing bank, credit card network, and merchant acquirer, PayPal can act as all three.

PayPal 不再需要發卡銀行、信用卡網絡和商戶收單機構這三個獨立的中間商，而是可以同時充當這三個中間商。

When a buyer pays a seller using PayPal, they can directly send money from their PayPal wallet to the seller's PayPal wallet.

當買方使用 PayPal 向賣方付款時，他們可以直接從自己的 PayPal 錢包向賣方的 PayPal 錢包匯款。

The buyer's PayPal wallet replaces the issuing bank, the seller's PayPal wallet replaces the merchant acquirer, and the PayPal network replaces the credit card network.

買家的 PayPal 錢包取代了發卡銀行，賣家的 PayPal 錢包取代了收單銀行，PayPal 網絡取代了信用卡網絡。

PayPal gets to collect the fees that otherwise would have been collected by those elements that it replaces, which for most types of transactions averages a total of around 3%.

PayPal 可以收取被其取代的那些要素本應收取的費用，對於大多數類型的交易而言，平均總額約為 3%。

There are other ways PayPal inserts itself into the traditional credit card system as well.

PayPal 還以其他方式融入傳統的信用卡系統。

For example, it can act like the issuing bank, it offers merchant acquirer services, and can even act as an extra middleman between the credit card network and merchant acquirer.

例如，它可以充當發卡銀行，提供商戶收單服務，甚至可以充當信用卡網絡和商戶收單之間的額外中間人。

But the main thing to understand is the traditional credit card system, and that PayPal replaces or inserts itself alongside certain parts of it.

但最主要的是要了解傳統的信用卡系統，PayPal 取代或插入了其中的某些部分。

Because PayPal makes money in the same way as the traditional credit card system and indeed competes with it, its operating and financial results are similarly dependent on transaction volumes.

由於 PayPal 的盈利方式與傳統信用卡系統相同，而且事實上還與之競爭，所以其營運和財務結果同樣取決於交易量。

The two most important operating metrics for PayPal to measure the success of their product are total payment value and the number of payment transactions.

PayPal 衡量其產品成功與否的兩個最重要的營運指標是支付總額和支付交易次數。

Like the traditional credit card system, the amount of revenue PayPal generates through charging fees on transactions is a fixed amount per transaction plus a percentage of the transaction size.

與傳統的信用卡系統一樣，PayPal 通過收取交易費獲得的收入是每筆交易的固定金額加上交易額的一定比例。

So both the number of transactions and the total size of all transactions determine the company's revenue.

所以交易數量和所有交易的總規模都決定了公司的收入。

As PayPal has gained adoption among ecommerce merchants and consumers, both of these metrics have been increasing exponentially every single year.

隨著 PayPal 在電子商務商家和消費者中的普及，這兩項指標每年都在成倍增長。

In fact, in the five years before the pandemic, both the number of transactions and total payment value grew at an annual rate of almost 30%.

事實上，在疫情之前的五年裡，交易數量和支付總金額的年增長率都接近 30%。

With no end in sight for the company's remarkable growth, PayPal's stock price similarly went increasing nearly tenfold from its spinoff from eBay in 2015 to its peak in 2022.

由於公司的顯著增長看不到盡頭，PayPal 的股價從 2015 年從 eBay 分拆出來到 2022 年達到頂峰時，同樣增長了近 10 倍。

In the years immediately following its spinoff from eBay, PayPal was able to grow extremely quickly by simply expanding its reach outside of eBay.

在從 eBay 分拆出來後的幾年裡，PayPal 只需將觸角延伸到 eBay 以外，就能實現極快的增長。

Companies like Uber, Walmart, and countless other companies both large and small started accepting PayPal.

Uber、沃爾瑪等公司以及無數其他大大小小的公司都開始接受 PayPal。

Similarly, with more and more places accepting PayPal, more and more consumers found it worthwhile to open up a PayPal wallet.

同樣，隨著越來越多的地方接受 PayPal，越來越多的消費者發現值得開通 PayPal 錢包。

The total number of active PayPal accounts more than doubled from 2015 to 2020, from 179 million to 377 million.

從 2015 年到 2020 年，PayPal 的活躍賬戶總數增加了一倍多，從 1.79 億增至 3.77 億。

But following the pandemic, the growth in ecommerce hit a wall.

但在疫情之後，電子商務的增長遇到了瓶頸。

Additionally, competition from the likes of Apple Pay, Google Pay, and other consumer payment solutions began really heating up.

此外，來自 Apple Pay、Google Pay 和其他消費支付解決方案的競爭也開始真正升溫。

PayPal knew it would have to find new ways to augment its product offering.

PayPal 知道，它必須找到新的方法來增強其產品服務。

It attempted to do so in a number of ways.

它試圖通過多種方式做到這一點。

One of PayPal's biggest growth bets was the launch of its Pay in 4 program in 2020.

PayPal 最大的增長賭注之一是在 2020 年推出 Pay in 4 計劃。

The Pay in 4 program is PayPal's entrance into the buy now pay later space.

Pay in 4 計劃是 PayPal 進入 "先買後付 "領域的第一步。

Buy now pay later is one of the most rapidly growing parts of consumer finance.

先買後付是消費金融中發展最迅速的部分之一。

Major players like Affirm and Klarna have seen their popularity among consumers skyrocket in recent years.

近年來，Affirm 和 Klarna 等主要公司在消費者中的受歡迎程度急劇上升。

The reason that buy now pay later has become so popular is because it allows consumers to smooth out their consumption, which lowers the psychological barrier to making a single large payment.

先買後付之所以如此流行，是因為它允許消費者平滑消費，從而降低了一次性支付大筆款項的心理障礙。

It also offers credit to consumers who otherwise would not be credit worthy enough for traditional consumer loans.

它還為那些沒有足夠信用度申請傳統消費貸款的消費者提供信貸。

PayPal's Pay in 4 offering is an additional payment method that is sometimes available when making a purchase with the merchant who accepts PayPal.

PayPal 的 Pay in 4 是一種額外的付款方式，有時在接受 PayPal 的商家購物時可以使用。

With Pay in 4, the full purchase price is spread out between four payments, 15 days apart, with no interest.

使用 "四期付款"，全額購車費用分四次支付，每次間隔 15 天，無利息。

You have to be approved for each Pay in 4 installment loan you take out, but most applications get automatically approved within seconds.

你的每筆分期付款貸款都必須獲得準許，但大多數申請都能在幾秒鐘內自動獲得準許。

PayPal does not make any money directly from its Pay in 4 program.

PayPal 並不直接從其 Pay in 4 計劃中獲利。

In fact, it costs a significant amount of money to run because it gives the consumer an interest-free loan, and incurs some risk of default on each loan it makes.

事實上，它的經營成本很高，因為它向消費者提供的是無息貸款，而且每筆貸款都有一定的違約風險。

This has contributed to PayPal's credit losses increasing 42% from pre-pandemic levels, from $288 million in 2019 to $409 million in 2023.

這導致 PayPal 的信貸損失比疫情前增加了 42%，從 2019 年的 2.88 億美元增至 2023 年的 4.09 億美元。

But remember that PayPal makes the bulk of its revenue from the total number of transactions and total payment value.

但請記住，PayPal 的大部分收入來自交易總數和支付總金額。

Researchers have concluded that access to Buy Now Pay Later installment loans indeed has a causal effect on consumers increasing their spending.

研究人員得出的結論是，獲得 "先買後付 "分期貸款確實對消費者增加支出產生了因果效應。

In an article published by the Harvard Business Review in late 2024, two marketing professors shared the results of a study they conducted to determine the effect of Buy Now Pay Later on how much money consumers spend.

在《哈佛商業評論》2024 年底發表的一篇文章中，兩位營銷學教授分享了他們的一項研究結果，該研究旨在確定 "先買後付 "對消費者消費金額的影響。

They compared the spending patterns of hundreds of thousands of consumers before and after adopting Buy Now Pay Later schemes.

他們比較了數十萬消費者在採用 "先買後付 "計劃前後的消費模式。

The study found an immediate increase in spending among those consumers who adopted Buy Now Pay Later, to the tune of 17 to 26%.

研究發現，採用 "先買後付 "的消費者的消費額立即增加了 17% 至 26%。

This is the most convincing academic evidence yet that Buy Now Pay Later indeed causes consumers to spend more.

這是目前最有說服力的學術證據，證明 "先買後付 "確實會讓消費者花更多的錢。

PayPal is uniquely positioned to benefit from this dynamic because their revenue is directly linked to how much money people spend using PayPal.

PayPal 具有得天獨厚的優勢，可以從這一動態中獲益，因為他們的收入與人們使用 PayPal 消費的多少直接相關。

While the launch of Pay in 4 has been a massive success for PayPal, not all of its growth initiatives have worked out so well.

雖然 PayPal 推出 Pay in 4 取得了巨大成功，但並不是所有的增長計劃都取得了如此好的效果。

In 2023, PayPal tried to get in on the cryptocurrency hype with their own cryptocurrency called PiUSD.

2023 年，PayPal 試圖利用自己的加密貨幣 PiUSD 來炒作加密貨幣。

PiUSD is a so-called stablecoin that supports PayPal's broader ambitions to build a successful crypto trading platform within the PayPal ecosystem, but these ambitions have largely been a flop.

PiUSD 是一種所謂的穩定幣，支持 PayPal 在 PayPal 生態系統內建立一個成功的加密貨幣交易平臺的更廣泛的雄心壯志，但這些雄心壯志在很大程度上是失敗的。

As the main stablecoin of PayPal, PiUSD is a good proxy for broader crypto trading activity on PayPal.

作為 PayPal 的主要穩定幣，PiUSD 很好地代表了 PayPal 上更廣泛的加密貨幣交易活動。

As of the time of recording this video, PiUSD has a market cap of just half a billion dollars and trades about $10 million worth per day.

截至本影片錄製時，PiUSD 的市值僅為 5 億美元，每天的交易額約為 1 000 萬美元。

This is only a small fraction of the nearly $50 billion market cap and $5 billion of daily trading volume of the stablecoin USDC.

這只是穩定幣 USDC 近 500 億美元市值和 50 億美元日交易量的一小部分。

But more concerningly, PayPal has gotten into legal trouble for its PiUSD cryptocurrency.

但更令人擔憂的是，PayPal 因其 PiUSD 加密貨幣而陷入了法律糾紛。

In late 2023, the SEC subpoenaed PayPal pending an investigation into PiUSD.

2023 年底，美國證券交易委員會傳喚 PayPal，等待對 PiUSD 進行調查。

If the SEC determines PiUSD to be an unregistered security, PayPal could be subject to enforcement action, fines, and significant reputational damage.

如果美國證券交易委員會認定 PiUSD 為未註冊證券，PayPal 可能會面臨執法行動、罰款和重大聲譽損失。

Another disastrous growth initiative has been PayPal's 2020 acquisition of a startup called Honey.

另一個災難性的發展舉措是 PayPal 在 2020 年收購了一家名為 Honey 的初創公司。

Honey created a web browser extension that automatically applies known coupon codes to your order when you shop on various ecommerce websites.

Honey 創建了一個網絡瀏覽器擴展，當你在各種電子商務網站購物時，它會自動將已知的優惠券代碼應用到你的訂單中。

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曾經的電子支付巨頭PayPal陷入危機 (PayPal Is In Crisis)

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