First, the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals,

人類在 2015 年有 2 項 很棒且很有希望的突破。

the collective, universal plan for humanity

第一，採用了永續發展目標，

to eradicate hunger,

它是人類的集體、全體計畫，

[promote] good economic development and good health,

旨在根絕饑荒，

within global environmental targets.

推動好的經濟發展以及健康的好處，

Secondly, after 21 years of negotiations,

是在全球環境目標之下的計畫。

we adopted the legally binding Paris Agreement,

第二，在 21 年的協商之後，

all nations in the world keeping global warming under two degrees Celsius,

我們採用了有法律約束力的巴黎協議，

aiming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

全世界的所有國家要讓全球暖化 維持在攝氏 2 度之內，

Today, three years down the line, we're still in the hand-waving business.

目標是攝氏 1.5 度。

Now, I think it's time to step back one step

現今，已經 3 年過去了，

and recognize that I wonder if the world leaders really knew what they signed

我們還談連邊都碰不著。

at the General Assembly three years ago.

我認為，現在是該 退一步的時候了，

These are universal, aspirational, transformational goals

該承認我很納悶三年前 在聯合國大會上，

for inclusive, prosperous humanity on a stable earth system.

世界領導人們是否知道 自己簽了什麼。

But there are underlying problems.

這些是全體的、 有抱負的、轉型的目標，

We have inherent contradictions between these goals,

在穩定的地球系統上， 讓人類能夠共榮。

where there's the risk of pursuing one favored goal at the expense of others.

但這背後有些問題。

Take, for example, Goal 8, on decent work and economic growth.

在這些目標之間， 本來就有所矛盾，

If we continue doing that by exploiting natural resources

追求一個目標時， 代價可能會是另一個目標。

and burning fossil fuels,

比如，以第 8 項目標為例： 尊嚴工作帶動經濟成長。

it will be impossible to reach Goal 13.

若我們持續這麼做的方式 是使用自然資源和燃燒化石燃料，

Three years down the line, we simply must admit

就不可能達成第 13 項目標。

we're seeing limited action to really, really address this

已經過了 3 年，我們必須要承認，

as an inclusive, collective, universal package.

我們很少有看到任何行動 真正將這個議題

Now, this requires us to step back one step.

當作廣泛、集體、全體的 一組整體來處理。

I think we have to ask ourselves some hard questions:

這就需要我們向後退一步。

Do we have any chance of accomplishing the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030?

我認為我們必須要問 我們自己一些困難的問題：

Are there actually inherent trade-offs

我們是否有機會在 2030 年 完成永續發展目標？

that are not compatible with our current development paradigm?

是否在本質上有一些取捨

But are there, perhaps, synergies where we can really accelerate change?

和我們目前的發展範式不相容？

And is it really a people-planet agenda,

但，有沒有協同合作等等 可以讓我們真正加速改變？

really taking seriously the social and economic aspirational goals

它真的是一個 「人類—地球」議程，

within the life-support systems on earth?

真正有在地球的生命維持系統之下

Now, citizens across the world have started to recognize

嚴肅考量有抱負的 社會和經濟目標？

that we're facing global rising environmental risks;

全世界的公民都開始認知到

in fact, that a stable planet is a prerequisite

我們正面臨全球性的 環境風險都在上升；

to have good human well-being on earth.

事實上，穩定的星球 是必要的前提條件，

We need to define a safe operating space on a stable earth system,

然後人類才有可能 在地球上安康樂利。

and the planetary boundary framework was introduced

我們需要在穩定的地球系統上 定義出一個安全生存空間，

by the scientific community in 2009

2009 年，科學界提出了

to do exactly that.

地球限度架構，

It has now been widely embraced across the world

就是這個目的。

in policy, business and communities

這個架構現在已 在全世界被廣為接受，

as a framework for sustainable development

在政策、企業，以及社區內

in the Anthropocene.

被當作是人類世的永續發展架構。

This slide really shows the framework with the nine environmental processes

這張投影片上的就是這個架構，

that regulate the stability of the earth system,

及 9 個環境過程，

providing a safe operating space,

用以調節地球系統的穩定度， 提供安全生存空間，

where we'll have a high chance of having good human well-being

我們才能有很大的機會能達成

and prosperity and equity.

安康樂利、繁榮興盛，以及平等。

If we move into the yellow zone, we enter a dangerous uncertainty zone;

如果我們移入黃色地帶， 就是進入了危險的不確定地帶；

and into the red, we have a high likelihood of crossing tipping points

紅色地帶則表示 很有可能過了臨界點，

that could take us irreversibly away from the ability of the earth system

會讓地球系統越來越 無法為人類提供社會

to provide social and economic well-being for humanity.

和經濟的安康樂利， 而這是個不可逆的後果。

Now, we can today, scientifically, quantify these boundaries,

現今，我們可以用科學的方式

providing us a stable earth system for humanity.

將這些限度給量化，

But we have to go beyond this

提供人類一個穩定的地球系統。

and recognize the Sustainable Development Goals --

但我們必須要超越它，

if we really want to seriously accomplish them --

要認知到永續發展目標—— 若我們真心想要認真達成它們——

must now occur within this safe operating space.

現在就必須要在這個 安全生存空間中發生。

We need to achieve SDGs within PBs.

我們需要在地球限度之內 達成永續發展目標。

But dear friends, not even this is enough.

但，親愛的朋友們， 就算這樣也還不足夠。

We need to recognize that the Sustainable Development Goals

我們必須要認知到，

is 12 years away.

要達到永續發展目標，只剩十二年。

It's only a milestone.

它只是一個里程碑。

It is the bull's-eye that we need to go through

它是我們需要穿過的靶心，

and zoom ourselves towards transformations

將我們自己推向轉變，

where we can have a good future for all co-citizens on earth,

才能為地球上的所有共同公民 創造出一個美好未來，

nine billion plus,

讓超過 90 億人 生活在穩定的地球系統中，

within a stable earth system in 2050 and beyond.

在 2050 年達成並持續下去。

This is a quest,

這是一項追尋，

and in order to really explore this and not have only opinions about it,

為了要真正去做探索， 而不只是有口頭意見，

we gathered the scientific community, the best thinkers and modelers

我們集結了科學界， 最好的思想家和建模者，

and started to develop a completely new complex systems dynamic model,

開始發展一個全新的 複雜系統動態模型，

the Earth-3 model,

「地球 3 號」，

building on models that have been around for the last 50 years.

建基於這 50 年已有的模型。

And here it is.

就是它。

This is a fantastic piece of work.

它是個很棒的傑作。

This has a climate module, a biosphere module, a global economic model;

它有氣候模組、生物圈模組、 全球經濟模組；

it has algorithms, it has the whole room of fantastic accomplishments.

它有演算法，

This is what turns us scientists on.

它有一大堆不凡的成果。

(Laughter)

它能讓我們科學家動情。（笑聲）

I mean, this is just a beautiful piece of work?

我的意思是，它是很美好的傑作。

And I'd just love to spend the whole evening walking this through with you,

我很想要用整晚的時間 帶各位了解它，

but I'll make you disappointed.

但我會讓你們失望。

I cannot do that.

我無法這麼做。

In fact, the only thing I can do with you is just to assure you

事實上，我唯一能為你們做的

that this is the first time it's done.

就是向你們保證它是史無前例的。

Nobody has ever tried to really analytically combine

從來沒有人試圖在分析面上

the Sustainable Development Goals with planetary boundaries.

將永續發展目標和地球限度結合。

And we were able to find patterns and really convergent trends

我們有辦法找到模式

that gives us a lot of confidence in our ability to now project

和真正的收斂趨勢，

economic development,

這讓我們很有信心， 相信我們現在有能力可以企劃

resources use from water, food and energy,

經濟發展、

population growth, income per person,

水、食物，和能源的資源使用、

yet along these consistent and systemic pathways.

人口成長、人均收入，

So, it's the first time we have a robust opportunity

而且還能維持一致性和系統性。

to really explore the futures of ability of attaining the SDGs within PBs.

這是頭一次，我們有 穩定健全的機會，

Now, how do we do this?

能夠真正去探索未來在地球限度之內 達成永續發展目標的能力。

Well, look at this.

我們要如何做到？看看這個。

Here, you have the data coming from the real world,

這裡，有來自真實世界的資料，

calibrated from 1970-2015:

校正為 1970 年到 2015 年：

100,000 data points around the world,

全世界的 10 萬個資料點，

building on seven regions' ability,

表示 7 個地區真正能處理

of really picking on all these Sustainable Development Goals.

所有這些永續發展目標的能力。

Now, one example of how we calibrated this,

舉例來說明我們如何校正它，

here you have [data] for Sustainable Development Goals

這裡有永續發展目標的資料，

on eradicating poverty, health, education and food.

內容是關於根除貧窮、 健康、教育，以及食物。

And here you have in the bubbles the seven regions of the world,

這些泡泡是世界上的 7 個區域，

how they move up until 2015 in our empirical observations

可以看見截至 2015 年，

in relation to GDP per capita,

隨著這些區域的人均 GDP

giving these universal convergent trends,

相關經驗觀察值如何向上爬升，

which enabled us to create regressions

產生這些全球的收斂趨勢，

that could make us able to do simulations into the future,

讓我們能建立迴歸模型，

all the way until 2050,

這麼一來就可以做出

showing the ability along the lines here to attain the SDGs.

一直到 2050 的未來模擬，

Now, this gave us the opportunity of doing several scenarios,

呈現出用這裡的方式 來達成永續發展目標的能力。

testing different possible futures:

這讓我們有機會可以做幾種情境，

business as usual, global transformations,

測試不同的可能未來：

investment schemes in business, different governance options,

照常營運，全球轉型，

policies, finance --

企業的投資計畫， 不同的治理選項，

really, to explore what the future can look like

政策，金融——

in our ability to attain the SDGs within PBs.

去探究以我們在地球限度的範圍內 達成永續發展目標的能力，

And the results, I can tell you, really surprised us.

未來可以變成什麼樣子。

And this will be the first time it's shown.

我可以告訴各位的是， 結果讓我們很驚訝。

It should actually not even be referenced outside of this room.

這將會是頭一次呈現出來。

Now, it actually is presented along two axes.

甚至在這間房間以外的地方 都不應該提到它。

The y-axis here shows our ability to stay within planetary boundaries.

它其實是用兩個軸來呈現。

The higher up, the closer you are to the safe operating space.

這裡的 Y 軸是我們保持 在地球限度內的能力。

On the x-axis are the Sustainable Development Goals;

越上面就表示你越接近 安全生存空間。

the further to the right, the more of the SDGs we fulfill.

X 軸是永續發展目標；

We all want to be in the upper right-hand corner,

越右邊表示我們能實現 越多永續發展目標。

the safe and just world for the future.

我們都希望能落在右上角，

Now, the point you see there is 1980.

表示未來有安全且公平的世界。

We were in a situation where we actually were in a safe operating space

各位看到的這個點，是 1980 年。

but not meeting so many of the SDGs.

我們當時的情況是 處在安全生存空間中，

Here's the trend up until 2015.

但還沒有實現很多永續發展目標。

So this is the conventional world,

這是一直到 2015 年的趨勢。

which is actually delivering on an increasing number of SDGs,

這是傳統的世界，

lifting millions of people out of poverty,

它真的能實現越來越多的 永續發展目標，

but doing it at the expense of the safe operating space on earth.

讓數百萬人脫離貧困，

Now, this is the scenario business as usual, into the future.

但這麼做的代價卻是 地球上的安全生存空間。

If we just move on as today,

這就是照常營運， 朝未來前進的情境。

we will be able to deliver on some of the SDGs,

如果我們就這樣走下去，

but we'll do it at the expense of the stability of the earth system.

我們將能夠實現一些永續發展目標，

Now, what if we go faster on economic growth

但我們會付出的代價是 地球系統的穩定度。

and really ally on one percent increase per year of income

如果我們把經濟成長加速，

and an even tripling of the world economy by 2050?

真正做到每年收入增加 1%，

That would give us the following trajectory.

甚至到了 2050 年 讓世界經濟變成 3 倍呢？

We would, yes, go a little bit further on SDG accomplishments,

那就會產生下列的軌跡。

but still at the expense of the risk of destabilizing the planet.

的確，我們在永續發展目標的 完成度上會有進步，

But what if we really go harder?

但代價仍然會是有讓地球 穩定度下降的風險。

What if we increase our ability to deliver on our promises by 30 percent

但如果我們真的很努力呢？

across all sectors in society,

如果把我們實現 諾言的能力增加 30%，

from climate to our trade agreements?

涵蓋社會上的各個部門，

A harder scenario would take us a little bit better,

從氣候到貿易協定？

but still, we're failing on the SDGs,

這個比較努力的情境 會讓我們有更好一點的結果，

and we are not accomplishing a safe operating space for humanity.

但我們仍然做不到永續發展目標，

So this really led us to a quite disappointing conclusion,

且我們也沒有達成 人類的安全生存空間。

that we will actually, even if we go conventional futures, fail on the SDGs

所以這其實會帶領我們 走向讓人失望的結論，

and transgress planetary boundaries.

即：即使我們選擇傳統方式的未來，

We need some radical thinking.

還是做不到永續發展目標， 且會超過地球限度。

We need to go into a transformative, disruptive future,

我們需要一些根本性思考。 我們必須要進入

where we start thinking outside of the box.

一個轉型的、顛覆性的未來，

The modeling and engagement and dialogues enable us to identify

在這個未來， 我們可以跳出框框思考。

five transformations that could actually potentially take us there.

建模、參與、對話， 讓我們可以找出 5 種轉型，

The first one is to cut emissions by half every decade

真的有機會帶我們走向這樣的未來。

along the scientific pathway to Paris,

第 1 種是每 10 年 就讓排放量減半，

doubling investments in renewable energy,

朝巴黎協議努力，

creating a global energy democracy,

把對於再生能源的投資加倍，

allowing us to meet several of the SDGs.

創造出全球能源民主，

The second is a rapid shift towards sustainable food systems,

讓我們可以達成 好幾個永續發展模型。

investing one percent per year in sustainable intensification

第 2 種是快速轉換， 轉為永續食物系統，

and really moving towards implementing and investing in solutions

每年投資 1% 做永續的強化，

that we already have available today.

真正邁向導入及投資我們現今

The third is really to shift our development paradigm

已經可取得的解決方案。

and learn from many of the developing countries

第 3 種是真正轉換 我們的發展範式，

that have moved very fast.

並向許多快速前進的 開發中國家學習。

What if we could have an economic growth such as in China,

如果我們能夠有 中國那樣的經濟成長，

while doing it within the environmental parameters

而且是在生態文明的

of an ecological civilization?

環境參數之內辦到，如何？

Fourth, a redistribution of wealth.

第 4 種，財富重新分配。

What if we could [agree] that the richest 10 percent

如果我們能同意，最有錢的 10% 人

could not allow themselves to amass more than 40 percent, maximum,

不能讓自己積聚的最大值超過

of national incomes --

全國收入的 40% ——

a drastic redistribution of wealth,

財富的極端重新分配，

reforming the ability of equity across regions?

重新形成各區域 平等的能力，如何？

And finally, fifth, a radical increase in more education, health,

最後，第 5 種， 從根本上增加更多教育、

access to work, contraception,

健康、工作機會、避孕、

investing largely in women across the world,

在全世界大量投資女性，

allowing us to deliver on SDGs on gender, inequality,

讓我們能實現關於 性別、不平等、經濟，

economics and urban development.

和都市發展的永續發展目標。

Now, if we would push ourselves across all these five --

如果我們要在這 5 種 轉型上都加把勁——

we tested this, and it would give us an amazing journey

我們做過測試了，結果是會讓我們

towards the safe and just operating space on earth.

踏上一段很了不起的旅程，

It shows us that even with a conservative, empirically based,

目標是地球上創造安全、 公平的生存空間。

complex system dynamics model,

我們可以看到， 即使是用一個保守、

we are at a state where we can actually think of transformations

以經驗為基礎的 複雜系統動態模型，

over the next 12 years and beyond

我們的狀態仍然是可以真正去思考

that can take us up into the safe operating space

接下來 12 年及之後的轉變，

and deliver on aspirational social and economic goals.

來帶我們進入安全生存空間，

This is actually quite uplifting,

實現很有抱負的社會和經濟目標。

despite the fact that we're not moving along this trajectory.

這其實相當讓人振奮，

So, in summary:

儘管我們現在並沒有 延著這個軌跡移動。

we now, three years into the operational delivery on the SDGs,

所以，總結一下：

must draw a line

在運作上去履行永續發展目標 已經有 3 年的時間，

and conclude that we're not delivering on our promises,

我們必須要畫一條線，

and not only that, we're running the risks

斷定我們並沒有實現我們的諾言，

of future generations having an even tougher ability,

不僅如此，我們還冒著

because of the risk of pushing the earth system beyond tipping points.

讓未來世代更辛苦的風險，

In fact, we are facing even a risk of a hothouse earth,

因為有可能會把地球系統 推向臨界點之外。

where we will undermine and create geopolitical instabilities

事實上，我們甚至 要面對溫室地球的風險，

that could actually make life even more tough

這樣我們會逐漸造成損害， 導致地理政治上的不穩定，

for billions of people on earth.

讓地球上數十億人的生活更困難。

This, in all honesty, really, really scares me.

老實說，這真的很讓我害怕。

But that's also why I'm standing here tonight,

但這也是為什麼 今天晚上我會站在這裡，

because the window of success is still open.

因為通往成功的窗戶仍然開著。

The earth system is still resilient.

地球系統仍然有恢復力。

She is still providing us with ecosystem services and functions

她仍然在提供我們 生態系統服務和功能，

that can allow us a transition back into a safe operating space.

讓我們可以做出轉型， 回到安全生存空間。

But we need radically different thinking.

但我們需要從根本上 就不同的思考。

We need to see this as an incredible wake-up call

我們需要把它視為是 喚醒我們的警訊，

but also an opportunity for transformative change,

以及做出轉型式改變的機會，

where we shift gears

讓我們換檔，真正開始 把永續發展目標想成是

and really start thinking of the SDGs as a transformative agenda