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  • The reflexivity between markets and central banks is starting to resemble the ancient Greek symbol of a serpent swallowing its own tail for eternity.

    市場跟央行之間的反思性有點像是一個古希臘符號,那符號是一條蛇吞食自己尾巴藉以獲得不死之身。

  • Markets focused on the timing of a possible interest rate rise in the U.S., the committee responsible for setting U.S. rates is focused on volatility in markets.

    市場關注的是美國可能升息的時間,而委員會對於利率訂定的責任是市場上的波動性。

  • The postponement of a shift in U.S. federal reserve policy in September and the decision to leave rates where they are

    美國聯準會在九月的延遲升息政策以及維持原利率的決定,

  • explains why money is now drifting back into riskier assets.

    都解釋了為什麼金錢正流入更高風險的資產。

  • Economists may still think there's a good chance of rates rising before the end of the year, but investors put the odds at less than 33%.

    經濟學家可能依然認為在今年年底前還有機會能升息,但是投資客認為升息的機率小於33%。

  • The consequence is a rebound in emerging markets, which are turning out to be one of the best performing assets of October.

    結果就是新興市場的經濟復甦,新興市場成為十月表現最好的資產之一。

  • So far this month, the MSCI index of EM equities is up 9.25%

    這個月到目前為止,新興市場股票的摩根指數已經來到9.25%,

  • while emerging market equity funds tracked by EPFR Global recorded their first positive inflows last week since June.

    根據美國新興市場投資基金研究公司 (EPFR) 資料顯示,新興市場的自有基金在上週得到自六月以來的第一筆淨流入。

  • And the risk premium demanded by investors for holding emerging market bonds instead of safer U.S. debt has dropped.

    投資者持有新興市場債券而不是持有穩定的美國國債的偏好下降,也就是風險貼水的需求下降,

  • But the rebound does not reflect a sudden improvement in the countries themselves.

    但是新興國家的這股經濟復甦並沒有反應大幅的增長。

  • Official data released by China on Monday showed better than expected growth of 6.9% between July and September.

    星期一由中國發表的官方資料顯示在七月跟九月之間,經濟成長高於原先預期的6.9%成長率。

  • But that marks a slowdown compared to last year and it was enough to drag down commodity prices on Monday.

    但這跟去年數字比起來,成長趨於緩慢, 星期一的資料這也足以讓商品價格下跌。

  • Instead, it is the expectation that the U.S. will hold off raising rates

    相反的,多數人預期美國會延遲升息,

  • and that other central banks will be pressurized into following suit or expanding stimulus programs that is heading up this rally.

    其他國家的央行也會被施壓要仿效美國或是擴張經濟刺激計劃,也就是造成這次復甦的計畫。

  • This week, the European central bank will meet to discuss whether fresh stimulus is needed to ward off the threat of deflation in the Eurozone.

    這週,歐洲央行將會討論是否需要復甦計畫來阻擋歐元區通貨緊縮的威脅。

  • With the latest figure showing sub-zero inflation in the Eurozone area in September,

    新的數字顯示歐元區在九月的零通膨代表著

  • the Euro is reversing its recent rise against the Dollar on the basis that more stimulus will put down more pressure on the Eurozone's currency.

    歐元扭轉了近期對美元升值的情況下,更多的刺激措施將會帶給歐元區更多壓力。

  • Our prices for Eurozone bonds are up sending yields lower. The market seems to think that an extension to Europe's QE program is all but assured.

    我們的價格讓歐元區債券的利率下跌。市場似乎認為歐洲量化寬鬆政策的擴張是幾乎可以確定的。*

The reflexivity between markets and central banks is starting to resemble the ancient Greek symbol of a serpent swallowing its own tail for eternity.

市場跟央行之間的反思性有點像是一個古希臘符號,那符號是一條蛇吞食自己尾巴藉以獲得不死之身。

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美聯儲不作為對歐元區的影響|短線觀點 (Effects on eurozone of Fed’s inaction | Short View)

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    Ray Du 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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