What is the European Debt Crisis ?

什麼是歐債危機？

It's the failure of the Euro,

歐債危機就是歐元機制的失敗，

the currency that ties together 17 European countries in an intimate but flawed manner.

歐元使17個歐洲國家緊緊聯繫在一起，但也有缺陷。

Over the past three years, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain,

過去三年來，希臘、葡萄牙、愛爾蘭、義大利和西班牙，

a ball teetered on the brink of financial collapse

像顆球一樣在財務崩潰邊緣搖搖欲墜，

threatening to bring down the entire continent and the rest of the world.

這個威脅讓整個歐洲和全世界都受到了打擊。

How did it happened?

危機到底是怎麼發生的?

Uniting Europe

團結歐洲

For most of Europe's history, it's been a war with itself.

回顧歐洲的歷史，大多時候都在互相打仗。

And countries at war with each other tend to do less business together.

交戰的國家往往不太會有生意往來。

Europe is always a continent of trade barriers, tariffs and different currencies.

歐洲過去一直都充滿貿易阻礙障礙，有各種關稅，貨幣也不同。

Doing business across borders was difficult.

跨國貿易相當困難。

You needed to pay a fee to exchange currencies.

兌換貨幣需要支付費用。

And you needed to pay a tariff fee to buy and sell to companies in other countries.

要和其他國家的公司交易還得付一筆關稅。

That tended to stifle economic growth.

經濟成長往往因此受到壓抑。

Then came World War II, which devastated Europe.

後來二戰爆發，歐洲受到嚴重摧毀。

Because the situation was so dire, the fastest way to rebuild Europe was to begin to remove these barriers.

因為情況非常危急，著手移除貿易障礙成了重整歐洲最快的方法。

Steel and coal tariffs came down so that a steel mill in one country could sell to a builder in another.

鋼和煤的關稅廢除，如此一來鋼鐵廠就能和別國的建築商交易。

This gave the survivors an idea.

度過危機的倖存者因此得到靈感。

A unified Europe, a union across the continent that will end all future wars.

要團結歐洲，建立歐洲聯盟，未來就不會再有戰爭。

Countries began to band together toward this goal, bringing down trade barriers, lowering the cost of doing business.

歐洲國家開始團結起來達成目標，減少貿易障礙，降低貿易成本。

One of the last barriers to fall was the Berlin Wall.

柏林圍牆是最後一個倒下的阻礙之一。

With the united Germany, Europe was ready.

德國統一後，歐洲就準備就緒了。

27 countries signed the Maastricht Treaty and created the European Union.

27個國家簽署馬斯垂特條約，創立了歐洲聯盟。

This made doing business across borders easier, but there was still one major obstacle: the different currencies.

跨國貿易從此變得比較容易，然而還有一個重大阻礙：就是貨幣不同。

A decade later, they had one.

那之後過了十年，歐盟有了統一貨幣。

The Euro, launched on January 1,1999.

歐元於1999年1月1日開始發行。

Countries adopting the euro, called the euro area, discontinued their own currencies.

採用歐元的國家稱為「歐元區」，這些國家停用了自己的貨幣。

They also discontinued their own monetary policies, giving control to newly formed European Central Bank, commonly referred to as the ECB.

他們也同時中止了自己的貨幣政策，將控制權交給新成立的歐洲央行，通常簡稱為 ECB。

The euro area now have one unified monetary policy, but it still have many different fiscal policies,

歐元區現在有了統一的貨幣政策，但各國的財政政策仍然不同，

a key reason for the current debt crisis.

這個關鍵因素造成了目前的債務危機。

Monetary policy versus Fiscal policy

貨幣政策與財政政策

You see it's important to understand the difference between monetary policy and fiscal policy.

了解貨幣政策和財政政策的差別是很重要的事。

Monetary policy controls the money supply, literally how much money there is in the economy, and what the interest rates are for borrowing money.

貨幣政策控制貨幣供應量，也就是市場上流通的金額，貨幣政策也控制貸款利息。

Fiscal policy controls how much money a government collects in taxes, and how much it spends.

財政政策則控制政府的稅收和支出。

A government can only spend as much as it collects in taxes.

政府的支出不能多於稅收金額。

Anything above that amount it has to borrow. This is called "Deficit Spending".

支出超過稅收的部分就需要貸款，這種情況稱為「赤字開支」。

Before the euro, countries like Greece, not only had to pay high interest rates to borrow, but they can only borrow so much.

歐元發行之前，希臘等國家要貸款不但利率高，能借到的錢也有限。

Lenders weren't comfortable lending them to much money.

債權國不放心太多借錢給他們。

But now that they were part of the euro area's new united monetary policy, the amount they could borrow skyrocketed.

但現在這些國家屬於歐元區，一律採用新的統一貨幣政策，他們可貸款的金額因此暴增。

Smaller countries suddenly have access to credit like never before.

較小的國家以前得不到的貸款，現在突然都能取得了。

Greece and other countries which previously could only borrowed at rates around 18%, could now borrow for the same low rate as Germany.

希臘和其他一些國家以前得用大約18%的利率借錢，現在的貸款利率卻可以和德國一樣低。

How?

為什麼呢？

Germany's credit card

德國信用卡

You see, joining the euro area is a lot like sharing a credit card, Germany's credit card.

加入歐元區其實就像是共用一張信用卡，而且是德國的信用卡。

Lenders now believe that if Greece was unable to repay its loans, Germany and the other bigger economies of Europe will stepped in and repay them,

債權國認為如果希臘還不出錢，德國和歐洲其他較大的經濟體就會介入償還債務，

because they were now bond by a common currency.

因為他們現在被同樣的貨幣綁在一起。

With the new abundance of cheap credit, Greece and other European countries were able to adjust their fiscal policies,

有了大量又便宜的信貸，希臘和其他歐洲國家就能調整財政政策，

and increase spending to previously impossible levels.

支出金額也能大幅提高，超過以前不可能達到的程度。

Some countries embarked on huge deficit spending programs, primarily for politicians to get elected.

有些國家施行大型赤字開支計畫，主要是為了讓從政的人贏得選舉。

They made promises such as more jobs and generous pensions, all that paid for with the new money they could now borrow.

他們提出承諾，例如更多的工作和大量的退休金，這些都是用現在能多借來的錢支付。

The governments of Greece, Portugal, and Italy accumulated huge debts,

希臘、葡萄牙和義大利政府累積了龐大的債務，

however, they were able to repay these debts with more borrowed money.

然而只要借更多的錢，他們就能償還債務。

As long as the borrowing continued, so did the spending, and the unbalanced fiscal policies.

只要不斷借錢，就能不斷支出，失衡的財政政策也會持續下去。

In Ireland and Spain, cheap credit fueled enormous housing bubbles just as it did in the United States.

在愛爾蘭和西班牙，廉價信貸加劇了房地產泡沫化，如同先前在美國發生的情況。

Credit flowed, debt accumulated, and the economies of Europe became tightly intertwined.

持續貸款，累積債務，歐洲各個經濟體也變得緊密相連。

Companies began opening factories and offices across Europe.

企業開始在歐洲各地設立工廠和辦公室。

German banks lending to French companies, French banks lending to Spanish companies and so on and so forth.

德國銀行借錢給法國企業，法國銀行借錢給西班牙企業，如此不斷來回。

This made doing business incredibly efficient, while at the same time tying together the collective fate of the Euro area.

生意往來因此變得很有效率，歐元區的命運同時也被綁在一起。

Things continue this way as long as credit was available and credit was available until 2008.

只要有貸款，事情就能這樣下去，也的確一直都有貸款，但情況只持續到2008年。

Spurred by a collapse in the US housing market, a credit crisis swept the globe bringing borrowing to a halt. Everywhere.

受到美國房價暴跌的刺激，信貸危機橫掃全球，使得借款中斷，無一倖免。

Suddenly the Greek economy couldn't function.

希臘經濟頓時無法運作。

It couldn't borrow money to pay for all the new jobs and benefits it created.

政府無法借錢來支付所有新工作的工資，也沒辦法負擔新的社會福利支出。

It couldn't borrow the new money it needed to pay its all debts.

希臘也無法再借需要的錢來償還債務。

This was a problem for Greece, but because of the unified monetary policy, it was also a problem for all of Europe.

這是希臘的問題，但因為統一貨幣政策的緣故，這也成了全歐洲的問題。

Much of Europe have been on a spending spree and borrowed more money than it could ever repay.

多數歐洲國家大肆揮霍，借的錢永遠還不完。

But the problem is somebody has to pick up the tab or else every country in the euro area will suffer.

但問題是，總要有人來埋單才行，否則歐元區的每個國家都將受苦受難。

Since the countries that ran up the bill couldn't repay, everyone looked to Germany.

既然超額支出的國家無法償還債務，大家轉向德國求助。

Austerity Measures

撙節政策

As the biggest and strongest economy in Europe Germany reluctantly agreed to help bail out the debtor countries.

身為歐洲最強大的經濟體，德國勉為其難地同意幫助負債的國家紓困。

In other words, Germany agreed to repay the bill but only if the debtor countries agreed to implement strict austerity measures to ensure that it would never happen again.

換句話說，德國答應付清這些債務，但條件是負債國家得實行嚴苛的撙節政策，以確保不會再發生債務危機。

Austerity measures meant sucking it up, cutting spending, borrowing less and paying back more debt.

撙節政策就是要面對現實、減少支出以及多償還債務。

This sounds like a simple solution, right? It's not.

聽起來是個很容易的解決方法對吧？一點也不。

First of all, nobody wants austerity.

首先，沒有人想要實施撙節政策。

Austerity means cutting government spending, and since the government is by far the biggest spender in the economy,

撙節政策指的就是刪減政府支出，由於政府是國家經濟體中最大的消費者，

when the government cut spending, it cuts the earnings of many of its citizens.

當政府刪減支出，也會減少大多數國民的收入。

People lose jobs, they get angry, they riot in the streets.

人民因失業而感到憤怒，進而走上街頭抗爭。

And austerity also doesn't automatically balance a country's budget.

撙節政策也無法自動平衡國家預算。

You see, the government collects taxes based on people's earnings.

因為政府收的稅來自人民的收入，

So when earnings are reduced, the government collects lesser taxes.

所以當人民收入減少，政府稅收也會跟著變少。

They still can't pay down their debts.

他們還是無法還清債務。

The pain is so bad that it's almost politically impossible to accomplish.

這非常令人痛苦，所以就政治上來說根本幾乎不可能實施。

On top of that there are huge cultural differences within the Euro area.

除此之外，歐元區的各個國家還有巨大的文化差異。

Extreme Cultural Differences

極端的文化差異

(More grappa! To the Beach!)

（再來幾杯酒！去海邊吧！）

(Pay back my money!)

（把我的錢還來！）

Germany is very financially responsible.

德國對財務相當負責。

Ever since the terrible hyper-inflation the country experienced after World War I,

自從德國在第一次世界大戰後經歷了嚴重的惡性通膨，

it's been extremely inflation averse and incredibly careful about spending and borrowing.

德國就對通膨相當反感，也對支出和借貸很謹慎。

In general, Germans work hard, expect little in the line of state benefits and meticulously pay all of their taxes.

一般來說，德國人工作很認真，對國家福利期待不高，而且會細心地繳交所有該繳的稅。

Many Greeks, on the other hand, enjoy generous state benefits and don't pay taxes.

另一方面，很多希臘人享有豐富的國家福利卻不繳稅。

Greece has a terrible problem, it has never collected the majority of the taxes it imposes on its citizens and its always been this way.

希臘有個很嚴重的問題，就是政府從沒收到大部分人民規定該繳的稅，而且一直都是如此。

Joining the Euro just amplified it.

加入歐元區只讓情況變本加厲。

The German view is that doesn't work.

德國的看法是，這樣是行不通的。

If you want our money, you need our morals.

如果你要我們的錢，就得依循我們的價值觀。

As the debtor countries headed towards default the whole continent of Europe was in danger.

當負債國家瀕臨破產，全歐洲也陷入危機。

Even though the economies of the debtor countries are relatively small,

雖然負債國家的經濟體規模相對較小，

they posed a huge threat because the European financial system is so interconnected precisely because of the Euro.

但他們還是造成了很大的威脅，因為歐洲的金融制度關係很緊密，而原因正是歐元。

Remember, the debtor countries borrowed money from banks, investors, and other governments throughout Europe,

要記得，負債國家向銀行、投資人還有其他歐洲國家政府借錢，

as the debtor countries get closer to default everyone who lent them money becomes weaker,

當負債國家越接近破產，所有債權國也會漸漸衰弱，

and everyone who lent those lenders money also becomes weaker, and so on and so forth.

借錢給債權國的債主也會日漸衰弱，就這樣沒完沒了。

A problem in one country could reverberate across the whole continent, triggering a chain-reaction of default.

某個國家的危機很有可能會波及整個歐洲，引發倒債連鎖效應。

If Greece defaults then Spain could default, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland would be next, then France, then Germany.

如果希臘破產，西班牙也可能接著破產，然後是義大利、葡萄牙、愛爾蘭還有法國和德國。

Pretty soon it could spread not just across Europe but across the world.

很快地，危機不只會蔓延到全歐洲，甚至會蔓延到全世界。

Fiscal Union or Breakup

財政聯盟或分道揚鑣

The problem is even if the debtor nations adopt austerity measures

問題在於，就算負債國家採取撙節政策，

and even if the bailout from Germany and the stronger countries helps them pay down their debts and avoid the immediate crisis,

就算德國和其他較強大的國家幫忙紓困，幫助負債國家還清債務、避免立即的危機，

there's no system in place to prevent this from happening again.

還是沒有任何系統措施能避免危機再度發生。

This brings us back to that fundamental division of monetary policy and fiscal policy.

這又回到了最根本的問題，就是貨幣政策與財政政策分開實行。

Ultimately, the euro area requires a fiscal union to match its monetary union, or neither.

最終，歐元區除了貨幣聯盟之外，也必須要有相應地財政聯盟才行，或是兩者都不要。

That is, there must be a political organization with authority to set fiscal policy within every Euro area country.

也就是說，必須要有一個政治組織有權訂定每個歐元國家的財政政策。

It must have the power to cut spending, raise taxes and set laws.

這個組織要有權刪減支出、提高稅收還有建立法規。

A fiscal union like this could actually prevent excessive borrowing and spending.

這樣的財政聯盟能實際避免超額借貸或支出。

However, this is an enormously complicated and unpopular notion.

然而，這是個相當複雜又不受歡迎的看法。

It means surrendering sovereignty to a higher power, in essence, a United States of Europe.

這表示要屈服於單一強權之下，從本質上來說，就是歐洲聯邦。

Yet without a centralized fiscal union countries will continue to run deficits, accumulate debt,

但若沒有一個中央財政聯盟，國家還是會有財政赤字，持續累積債務，

degrade the value of the euro and threatens stability in Europe.

使歐元貶值，也威脅歐洲的穩定局勢。

Can Europe take the necessary steps and create a fiscal union alongside the monetary union?

歐洲能採取必要的手段，建立和貨幣聯盟相應的財政聯盟嗎？

Or will the monetary union breakup and the Euro disappear

還是貨幣聯盟將會瓦解，歐元從此消失呢？