Name: 挪威巨型基金示警伊朗！彭博商業週刊 (Norway’s Giant Fund Sounds a Warning on Iran | Bloomberg Businessweek)
Uploaded: 2026-03-25T21:40:32.000Z
Duration: 7 min 36 s

This is Bloomberg Businessweek with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Radio.

這裡是 Bloomberg Radio 的 Bloomberg Businessweek，由 Carol Massar 和 Tim Stenovec 主持。

Okay, all credit to Carol Massar on this piece because she saw this—well, actually

好的，這篇報導的功勞全歸 Carol Massar，因為她看到了這個——嗯，其實

But Carol saw this piece today on our planning call.

不過 Carol 在我們今天的規劃會議上看到了這篇報導。

她說：「我們一定要找 Lionel 來聊聊。

We all agreed we got to get him on the program." It's about the warning that the boss of Norway's Giant Sovereign Wealth Fund is sounding on Iran.

我們都同意一定要請他上節目。」這是在談論挪威巨型主權財富基金負責人對伊朗發出的警告。

Lionel Laurent 在巴黎與我們連線。

他是 Bloomberg Opinion 的專欄作家。

It's close to 10:00 PM there, so we appreciate you.

現在那邊快晚上十點了，真的非常感謝您。

First, I just want to start with sort of a—it's an aside,

首先，我只是想先提個題外話，

but I can't believe this was Nikolai Tanjin's first trip to the Middle East.

但我真不敢相信這是 Nikolai Tanjin 第一次去中東。

The piece is about much more than that, but that caught my eye, first off.

這篇文章講的遠不止這些，但這點最先引起我的注意。

How has the head of this $2.2 trillion fund only been in the Middle East this one time in this year?

這個 2.2兆美元基金的負責人，今年竟然只去過中東這麼一次？

for this first visit to the Middle East to happen at the end of February, just hours before war breaks out, it's kind of incredible.

而且這次他第一次去中東，竟然是在二月底，戰爭爆發前幾個小時，這真的太不可思議了。

I think, honestly, it speaks to the fact that this fund, this huge $2 trillion fund, it's a kind of passive fund.

我認為，老實說，這說明瞭這個基金，這個龐大的2兆美元基金，它其實是一個被動型基金。

And as a result, it's really skewed to the US.

And so without trying to draw a direct link, I would say that maybe it's not so surprising that Tangen would have sort of only followed the path, let's say, to the Middle East that everyone else has taken from hedge funds to others.

所以，我不是要直接連結，但我會說，Tangen 可能只是跟著大家走，像是從避險基金到其他機構，去中東的這條路，這或許沒那麼令人意外。

I mean, he's pretty ensconced in Norway, so maybe has less of a kind of speculative bent when it comes to where he goes or the Middle East.

我的意思是，他深耕在挪威，所以對於他去哪裡或中東，可能比較沒有那種投機的心態。

But clearly, what is surprising is that he would go just before war breaks out.

但很明顯，令人意外的是，他竟然在戰爭爆發前就去了。

Let's talk about your conversation with him, Lionel, because what's interesting is, as you say, it's an index tracking investor,

Lionel，我們來聊聊你跟他的對話，因為有趣的是，就像你說的，他是一位指數追蹤的投資人，

but it is having to become more attuned to geopolitics.

但他卻必須越來越關注地緣政治。

Walk us through a little bit of what you wrote about his thinking about the world and how it may be or is changing as a result of this.

稍微跟我們分享一下你寫的，關於他的想法，以及世界可能因為這件事而改變，或正在改變的部分。

So I think that he was thinking a lot about complacency, I think, or about this idea that markets were calm.

所以我想他當時一直在想自滿情緒，或者市場很平靜這個想法。

Markets are a little less calm today, but still, overall, they're taking this in their stride.

市場今天稍微沒那麼平靜了，但總體來說，他們還是能應對自如。

And I think he sees his role—he sees his job—as also warning the Norwegian public, whose prosperity is tied to this fund, and

而我認為他看到了他的角色——他看到了他的工作——也是在提醒挪威民眾，他們的繁榮與這個基金息息相關，

maybe global markets, too, about the worst that could happen or the kind of risks around the corner.

還有全球市場，關於可能發生的最壞情況，或是潛在的風險。

That's why there's been a lot of stress testing at his fund, really mapping out the worst-case scenarios even before war broke out.

這也是為什麼在他的基金裡做了很多壓力測試，甚至在戰爭爆發前就詳細規劃了最壞情況。

And I think he really wanted to touch on those scenarios without predicting what's happening, mapping out potential scenarios.

而我認為他真的想觸及這些情況，但不是預測正在發生的事，而是規劃潛在的情況。

And that's why he talked about inflation, the not unlikely, in his words, return of inflation, and

這也是為什麼他談到通貨膨脹，用他的話來說，通貨膨脹並非不可能重現，

the fact that geopolitical tensions are clearly not going to calm down anytime soon.

還有地緣政治緊張局勢顯然不會很快平息。

Those were his two kind of big scenarios on top of all the existing worries that we might have over AI bubbles and private credit and all that.

這就是他提出的兩個主要情境，再加上我們可能對AI保麗龍和私人信貸等現有擔憂。

So I think that's what he sees his role as, scenario planning and being able to say that to the market and to his stakeholders in Norway.

所以我想這就是他認為自己的角色，進行情境規劃，並能向市場和挪威的利益相關者傳達這些訊息。

And perhaps maybe ironic isn't the right word,

but as you point out in your column, higher energy prices benefit Norway.

但正如你在專欄中指出的，能源價格上漲對挪威有利。

I mean, that's, after all, what this $2.2 trillion fund has been built on.

畢竟，這就是這個2.2兆美元基金建立的基礎。

So if we do see energy inflation for an extended period of time, the country and its sovereign wealth fund could be a beneficiary of that.

所以，如果我們看到能源通膨持續一段時間，這個國家及其主權財富基金可能會是以受益。

He's a very careful speaker on this topic,

他在這個議題上發言非常謹慎，

and he did want to make clear that for him and his fund, obviously, higher inflation, higher oil prices is, on balance, a negative, but, as you point out, is obviously a positive for the country and its oil revenues.

他確實想說清楚，對他和他管理的基金來說，顯然較高的通膨和油價整體而言是負面的，但正如你所指出的，這對國家及其石油收入顯然是正面的。

I should point out, though, that the fund accounts sometimes for 20 to 25 percent of the state's budget.

我應該指出，該基金有時佔國家預算的20%到25%。

So there is a kind of feedback loop that's not entirely positive.

所以存在一種並非全然正面的回饋循環。

I mean, what struck you most in your conversation with him?

跟你和他談話時，最讓你印象深刻的是什麼？

I mean, we, every day, are having so many conversations that, obviously, when it comes to the US war in Iran, how long this goes on?

我們的意思是，我們每天都有這麼多對話，很明顯，關於美國在伊朗的戰爭，這會持續多久？

We've already talked about the LNG market, the natural gas market, that there might be already it's going to be changed for years to come, just trying to figure out the timing and, overall, the longer-term impact.

我們已經談過液化天然氣市場、天然氣市場，這可能會在未來幾年內發生改變，我們正試圖弄清楚時機和整體的長期影響。

as you say, he's very careful, but I mean, what struck you the most?

就像你說的，他非常謹慎，但我的意思是，最讓你印象深刻的是什麼？

I think the fact that he sounded a bit different to everybody else in the room.

我認為最讓我印象深刻的是，他的說法和其他在場的每個人都有點不一樣。

I mean, he goes out of his way to say he's not a prognosticator.

我的意思是，他刻意強調自己不是一個預言家。

I do find it interesting that so many other fund managers in the room who were more active asset allocators were quick to say that this conflict would be confined to the region, would, in the long run, be manageable in terms of inflation.

我覺得很有趣的是，在場許多其他基金經理，他們是更積極的資產配置者，都很快地表示這場衝突將侷限於該地區，從長遠來看，在通膨方面是可以控制的。

And I hear a lot more voices, even today, saying, "Well, this war could be over when Donald Trump decides it could be over.

而且我聽到更多聲音，甚至今天也有人說：「嗯，這場戰爭可能會在唐納·川普決定結束時就結束了。

It's not going to get out of hand." So I was simply struck by the fact that here was someone who did not pretend to be a geopolitical analyst and did not pretend to be predicting what was going to happen, simply saying, "Well, okay, but

它不會失控。」所以我只是驚訝於，這裡有一個人，他並不假裝是地緣政治分析師，也不假裝預測會發生什麼，他只是說：「嗯，好吧，但是

on balance, here are two risks that I'm putting in my scenario bucket,

總體來說，我將這兩個風險納入我的情境考量中，

and I'm not going to rule out the worst-case scenario." Given that the fund is passive and geared toward US equities, was there any discussion, or did it come up at all, about changing his investments or changing the investments as a result of geopolitics?

而且我不會排除最壞情況。」考慮到該基金是被動式投資且以美國股票為主，是否有討論過，或者是否曾提及，要改變他的投資或因地緣政治而改變投資？

So it's mostly passive, but there is an active component.

所以它主要是被動式，但也有主動的部分。

So, for example, the speed at which they deal with certain issues, they've raised this in the past on certain banking stocks, banking crises.

所以，舉例來說，他們處理某些問題的速度，他們過去曾就某些銀行股、銀行危機提出過這個問題。

As for the overall rules, they are up for debate.

至於整體規則，它們正在討論中。

They're up for review, actually, in Norway right now.

事實上，挪威現在正在審查這些規則。

And I think that while I think for Americans, when they encounter the rule debate when it comes to the Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund, it's mostly about ethical guidelines and what some people disparagingly call woke investing, right?

我認為，雖然我認為對美國人來說，當他們遇到挪威主權財富基金的規則辯論時，這主要關乎道德準則以及一些人貶低地稱之為覺醒投資，對吧？

Oh, disinvesting from or divesting from Israeli stocks, for example, or those exposed to Gaza.

哦，例如，從以色列股票或與加薩有關的股票中撤資。

I think what might be interesting, though, is if the rules change and there is more of a geographic diversification along with that, so more investment in Europe, that could be a really huge game changer, especially for Europe, where he was quite keen to publicly say, "Europe is a bit of a sleeping beauty.

我認為有趣的是，如果規則改變，並且有更多的地域多元化，那麼在歐洲的投資就會更多，這對歐洲來說可能是一個巨大的轉變，因為他曾公開表示：「歐洲就像一位沉睡的美人。

It really has to get its act together, unify its capital markets, reform its economy." It could be quite interesting to see this fund that is so exposed to the US become less exposed to the US over time.

它真的必須振作起來，統一其資本市場，改革其經濟。」看到這個基金如此依賴美國，但未來對美國的依賴卻減少，這將會很有趣。

And listen, when we talk about where investment flows go, as you remind us, at the fund, about 1.5 percent of all listed shares is in its portfolio,

而且聽著，當我們談論投資流向何處時，就像你提醒我們的，該基金在其投資組閤中，持有約 1.5% 的所有上市公司股票，

and you're talking about top holdings like Nvidia and Apple.

你說到像 Nvidia 和 Apple 這樣的頂級持股。

So you talk about the major exposure that it ultimately has.

所以你談到了它最終擁有的主要曝險。

but we so wanted to talk about your story and share it with our audience.

但我們真的很想聊聊你的故事，並與我們的觀眾分享。

Lionel Laurent, he is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and highly recommend you read the full story.

Lionel Laurent，他是 Bloomberg Opinion 的專欄作家，強烈推薦大家閱讀完整報導。

It is out on The Bloomberg and at Bloomberg.com.

這篇報導刊載於 The Bloomberg 和 Bloomberg.com。