Name: 伊朗戰爭如何可能推高食品價格？| Global News Podcast (How the Iran war could raise food prices | Global News Podcast)
Uploaded: 2026-03-24T01:35:17.000Z
Duration: 9 min 32 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

Welcome to the Global News Podcast on YouTube.

歡迎來到 YouTube 上的 Global News Podcast。

I'm Charlotte Gallagher, and today we're joined by our business correspondent, Michelle Fleury.

我是 Charlotte Gallagher，今天我們請到我們的商業特派員 Michelle Fleury。

程度副詞

Michelle, it's been a really turbulent time for the global economy after the U.S.-Israel war with Iran started.

Michelle，自從美以戰爭爆發，伊朗捲入其中後，全球經濟經歷了一段非常動盪的時期。

The head of the International Energy Agency has said the world is facing a worse crisis than the oil shock of the 1970s and the fallout from the Ukraine war combined.

國際能源署署長表示，世界正經歷比 1970 年代的石油危機和烏克蘭戰爭的後果加起來還要嚴重的危機。

I mean, what is going on on the financial markets?

我的意思是，金融市場到底發生了什麼事？

I don't think there's really any way other than that to describe it.

我覺得除了這樣形容之外，沒有別的方法了。

You've got markets up, down, you've got oil prices again, um, you know, moving sharply.

你看市場有漲有跌，油價又在，嗯，你知道，劇烈波動。

This volatility is being driven by the fact that people just don't know how long this conflict is going to last and how much economic damage it's going to cause.

這種波動性是源於人們根本不知道這場衝突會持續多久，以及會造成多少經濟損失。

And at the same time, obviously, you've got the head of the International Energy Agency saying that world leaders are underestimating the impact.

同時，很明顯地，國際能源署署長說世界領導人低估了這場衝突的影響。

I and I think, you know, talking to kind of traders here on Wall Street, you're hearing, uh, a similar thing, which is that, you know, no company is going to be spared from this.

我和，你知道，跟華爾街的交易員聊過，你會聽到類似的說法，那就是，你知道，沒有任何一家公司會倖免於難。

The longer this goes on, um, because oil is such a crucial input in so many aspects of our lives, uh, that it's going to trickle through to, to so many things, and

這場衝突持續越久，因為石油是我們生活中許多方面的關鍵投入，它就會滲透到很多事情上，

the longer it lasts, the more that, that impact is going to be.

而且持續越久，影響就會越大。

In, in terms of the actual shipping markets, obviously, we've seen, uh, rates and insurance rates and everything go up and down.

在實際的航運市場方面，顯然，我們看到費率和保險費率等等都在起伏。

The cost of shipping fuel, uh, has also increased,

and so it's making it very difficult beyond the simple sort of maritime blockade that is effectively taking place in the Strait of Hormuz.

所以這使得除了荷姆茲海峽實際上正在發生的簡單的海上封鎖之外，變得非常困難。

Uh, it's just incredibly difficult for, for companies that run tankers to know where to dock, where is the safe place, let alone what passage.

對於經營油輪的公司來說，簡直難以知道要在哪裡停靠，哪裡是安全的地方，更不用說要走哪條航道了。

And even if they do attempt to kind of, uh, make a voyage, how do they get fuel?

即使他們真的嘗試要進行航行，他們要怎麼獲得燃料？

So the chaos in logistical terms, uh, i-is deeply challenging,

所以，在後勤方面造成的混亂，嗯，非常具有挑戰性，

and it-it's kind of causing a lot of frustration, late nights, lots of headaches for those in the industry.

這也讓業界人士感到非常沮喪、熬夜，還得處理很多頭痛的問題。

And we've talked so much about oil and gas,

我們已經談了很多關於石油和天然氣的事，

but also food is going to become a problem if this war continues.

但如果這場戰爭持續下去，食物也會成為一個問題。

The United Nations has warned that tens of millions more people could face acute hunger if this war lasts until June.

聯合國警告說，如果這場戰爭持續到六月，數千萬人可能會面臨嚴重的飢餓。

I mean, this has to do with fertilizer and the cost of fertilizer.

我的意思是，這跟肥料和肥料的成本有關。

I think, as you say, so much of the attention on this shipping route has been on, on energy going through there.

我想，正如你所說，大家對這條航線的關注點，大多放在通過那裡的能源上。

But, you know, crucially, the Gulf accounts for about a third of urea, which is kind of nitrogen fertilizer, passes through that shipping route,

但你知道，至關重要的是，波斯灣約有三分之一的尿素，也就是一種氮肥，是通過這條航線運輸的，

Uh, there is also the fact that in countries like India, for example, they've already, um, ha are struggling with imports of liquefied natural gas.

嗯，還有像印度這樣的國家，他們已經在努力進口液化天然氣了。

That is a key component used to make fertilizer, and so they've had to scale back production domestically.

那是製造肥料的關鍵成分，所以他們不得不縮減國內的生產。

So you've got this kind of double whammy going on where you can't import,

所以你會有這種雙重打擊，一方面無法進口，

but also domestically trying to make it is challenging because of what is happening with the energy picture.

另一方面國內試圖生產也因為能源狀況而面臨挑戰。

And it comes at a crucial time because in parts of the world it's planting season.

而且這發生在關鍵時刻，因為世界某些地方正值播種季節。

So you can imagine if suddenly your costs have shot up, in some cases as much as 40% for fertilizer, um, then, then that kind of has a knock-on effect.

所以你可以想像，如果你的成本突然飆升，有些情況下肥料成本甚至高達 40%，嗯，那就會產生連鎖效應。

Now, speaking to kind of agricultural experts on this, they say it takes roughly about six months to a year before that translates into higher prices at the grocery store.

現在，跟農業專家談論這件事，他們說大約需要六個月到一年，才會轉化為超市裡更高的價格。

But make no mistake, the impact is being felt immediately by farmers who, as I say, are currently kind of planning their next planting season.

但毫無疑問，農民們已經立即感受到影響，就像我說的，他們目前正在規劃下一個播種季節。

And China as well, they do produce a lot of fertilizer,

中國也是，他們生產很多肥料，

but now they're saying, "We're not going to export any.

但現在他們說：「我們不會出口任何東西。」

We need to keep this in reserves for our own agriculture industry." Yeah.

我們需要為自己的農業產業保留這些。對。

I mean, so countries like India, places like that, uh, rely heavily on imports from the Gulf.

我的意思是，所以像印度這樣的國家，那樣的地方，嗯，嚴重依賴從海灣地區進口。

And I think there had been hope amongst officials in those countries, "Look, maybe China, which makes a lot of fertilizer, will ride to the rescue." Uh, but

我認為那些國家的官員曾抱持希望：「看，也許中國，這個生產很多肥料的國家，會來拯救我們。」嗯，但是

instead, what they've announced is export controls.

相反地，他們宣佈的是出口管制。

So that's going to have a knock-on effect.

I mentioned India, but another country is Thailand.

我提到了印度，但另一個國家是泰國。

And the reason for that is because they are big consumers of fertilizer from China.

原因是因為他們是中國肥料的大宗消費國。

So you're starting to see the kind of domino effect, how it ripples through and becomes a much bigger problem.

所以你開始看到骨牌效應，它如何擴散並成為一個更大的問題。

泰國，嗯，反過來，生產稻米。

It is a kind of a kind of crop that depends heavily on fertilizer.

這是一種非常依賴肥料的農作物。

So you could see the knock-on effect feed back to China where maybe six months to a year from now, their imports of rice from Thailand or from countries like Brazil where they import a lot of soybeans, you know, those crops, if they get affected and they start having to pay higher prices, you start to see how this snowball effect kind of gains speed,

所以你可以看到連鎖效應回饋到中國，也許六個月到一年後，他們從泰國進口的大米，或是從巴西這種大量進口黃豆的國家進口，你知道，那些作物，如果受到影響，他們開始要支付更高的價格，你就會開始看到這種滾雪球效應如何加速。

and that's why you have these officials warning about the, the knock-on effect this will have on prices, on food prices down the road.

這就是為什麼這些官員警告說，這將對未來的物價，對食品價格產生連鎖效應。

And Michelle, all this could affect crops like rice,

Michelle，這一切都可能影響到像稻米這樣的農作物，

and when we're looking at less developed nations, they really rely on these crops.

當我們看著開發中國家時，他們真的非常依賴這些農作物。

And when you are talking about less developed nations, the other thing to remember is that the, the people kind of, you know we're not talking giant agricultural firms.

當你談到開發中國家時，另一件要記住的事是，我們談論的不是大型農業公司。

We're talking smallholders who really aren't able to bear these higher costs of things like fertilizer.

我們談論的是小農，他們真的無法負擔像肥料這樣東西不斷上漲的成本。

And so that's why you have agencies like the UN World Food Program warning that, you know, there is a risk of, of acute hunger for some sort of 45 million people as a result of this conflict, kind of worsening conditions on the ground.

這就是為什麼像聯合國世界糧食計畫署這樣的機構警告說，你知道，由於這場衝突，地面情況不斷惡化，有大約四千五百萬人面臨嚴重飢餓的風險。

And this could have serious political consequences for President Trump because people are already feeling it when they're buying fuel for their car at the pumps, but

這可能會對川普總統帶來嚴重的政治後果，因為人們在加油站買車用燃料時，已經能感受到影響了，而且

also the consequences it could have for U.S.

And I know that you've been speaking to some of them, haven't you, Michelle?

我知道妳有跟他們聊過，對吧，Michelle？

I mean, I was speaking to Lance Lilybridge.

He was also the head of the the former head of the Farmers' Corn Grower Association there.

他也曾是當地玉米種植者協會的前任會長。

And he was saying, "Look, even before this crisis, prices had been shooting up." Uh, and

他說：「你看，就算在這場危機之前，價格就已經在飆漲了。」嗯，

he was sort of pointing out that the U.S.

only buys about 6% or so, uh, of fertilizer from the Gulf region,

只從波斯灣地區購買大約 6% 左右的肥料，

and yet it's having a massive impact, uh, to the point where he was saying, "In some cases, it's no longer economical to plant this." And, and

但這卻造成了巨大的影響，他說：「在某些情況下，種植已經不划算了。」

he was kind of telling me about, you know, there were lots of factors in the U.S.

他有點跟我說，你知道，美國有很多因素導致了這個時刻，

that led to this moment, but this is kind of, uh, if you like, the cherry on top.

但這就像是，呃，如果你喜歡，就是壓垮駱駝的最後一根稻草。

It's pushing things to breaking point where it becomes unsustainable for many farmers.

這讓情況變得難以承受，許多農民都無法繼續經營。

that is obviously a huge concern because in his case, uh, corn, you know, that's important not just in itself,

這顯然是一個巨大的擔憂，因為在他的情況下，玉米，你知道，它不僅本身很重要，

but also corn is important in livestock food.

而且玉米也是牲畜飼料的重要組成部分。

So that means that starts trickling up and pushing up the price there.

所以這意味著價格會開始上漲，並推高那裡的價格。

It is also used in cases in industrial uses, for example, in paper.

它也被用於工業用途，例如在紙張製造中。

Um, so there are ways in which we can't even begin to imagine how this will impact,

and yet they are sounding the alarm right now saying, "Look, this is a problem for us.

所以有些影響是我們甚至無法想像的，

This is, uh, you know, unsustainable." And I'm just thinking back to the last presidential campaign and President Trump saying that he was going to lower grocery prices in the U.S.

但他們現在卻發出警報說：「看，這對我們來說是個問題。

What could it mean if they keep going up for President Trump?

這，呃，你知道，是不可持續的。」我只是回想起上次總統競選時，川普總統說他要降低美國的雜貨價格。

如果價格持續上漲，對川普總統來說意味著什麼？

I mean, this was an election in which Donald Trump in the last election said, you know, "I will make your lives better in, in economic terms." And yet you look at what's happening right now,

我的意思是，在這次選舉中，唐納·川普在上一次選舉時說，「我會讓你們的生活在經濟上變得更好。」但看看現在發生的事，

I mean, America is heading to the polls in November for national elections.

我的意思是，美國將在十一月舉行全國大選。

It all depends, again, on how long this conflict goes on,

這一切都取決於，又一次，這場衝突會持續多久，

but the worry is that people are going to see prices go up, and,

但令人擔心的是，大家會看到物價上漲，然後，

and so that's going to worsen an affordability crisis.

So right now, you go to the petrol pump, obviously, you're reminded daily of, of kind of higher prices.

所以現在，你去加油站，很明顯，你每天都會被提醒，物價變高了。

But, you know, in a couple of months from now, will you start to see that in food prices?

但是，你知道，從現在起幾個月後，你會開始在食品價格上看到嗎？

But if the perception among consumers is that things are moving in the wrong direction, uh, it'll be interesting to see, you know, how that hurts or doesn't hurt Republicans and Donald Trump, uh, in November's midterms.

但如果消費者的看法是事情朝錯誤的方向發展，嗯，看看這會如何影響共和黨和唐納·川普，嗯，在十一月的期中選舉中，會很有趣。

Is there anything that can be done to manage the problems in the supply chain?

有什麼方法可以管理供應鏈中的問題嗎？

I mean, it's hard to see what you can do short of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

我的意思是，除非重新開放荷姆茲海峽，否則很難看到能做什麼。

I mean, we've seen from past crises remember the attacks of the Houthis in the Red Sea?

我的意思是，我們從過去的危機中看到，還記得葉門胡塞武裝在紅海的襲擊嗎？