Name: 伊朗在空襲下仍堅韌！分析師：以色列檯面下暗潮洶湧 (Iran resilient despite strikes, Israel divided beneath surface, analysts say)
Uploaded: 2026-03-22T21:34:19.000Z
Duration: 6 min 10 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

We can speak to Alan Saleh here, who is a senior lecturer of Iranian Studies at the Australian National University.

我們可以訪問澳洲國立大學伊朗研究的高級講師 Alan Saleh。

And also in Tel Aviv, we have Ari Goldberg, who's an Israeli political commentator.

在特拉維夫，我們有以色列的政治評論員 Ari Goldberg。

First of all, for me, so the Israeli leadership, as we've just been hearing, defiant in the face of this latest strike from Iran.

首先，對我來說，就像我們剛聽到的，以色列領導層面對伊朗最新的打擊，表現得挑釁。

But I'm wondering just how resilient the nation as a whole to.

但我很好奇，這個國家整體上有多大的韌性？

Is to this kind of attack, despite the overall support for the war in Iran.

儘管在伊朗整體支持戰爭，但面對這類攻擊呢？

By the way, if you hear sirens as I speak, we've been given an advance warning, so they might be operating.

對了，如果我說話時聽到警報器，我們已經事先收到通知，所以它們可能正在運作。

The general Israeli population again supports the war en masse at a collective level.

以色列民眾再次集體地大規模支持這場戰爭。

Privately, I think cracks are most definitely showing.

我私下認為，裂痕絕對已經出現了。

But once again, the most effective Israeli repressive machine in terms of repressing negative thoughts like why are we fighting this war?

但再一次，以色列最有效的壓制機器，在壓制負面想法方面，例如「我們為什麼要打這場戰爭？」

I think that's what Prime Minister Netanyahu is also trying to do.

我認為這也是納坦雅胡總理正在試圖做的事。

He's trying to suggest that anyone who doesn't support this war is, well, a fifth columnist and so on and so forth.

他試圖暗示任何不支持這場戰爭的人，嗯，就是第五縱隊等等。

I understand President Trump is doing the same because I heard he said that following the death of Iran, America's greatest enemy is the Democratic Party.

我理解川普總統也在做同樣的事，因為我聽到他說，在伊朗死亡之後，美國最大的敵人是民主黨。

People don't really understand where this war is going, but

人們並不真正明白這場戰爭將走向何方，但是

the discourse is already steamrolling towards a direction where if you don't support the war and you're a traitor to the nation.

討論已經朝著一個方向滾動，如果你不支持這場戰爭，你就是國家的叛徒。

What about the resilience within Iran itself?

那伊朗本身有沒有什麼韌性呢？

It's under this continuing barrage right across the country.

它們正承受著全國各地持續不斷的猛烈攻擊。

What is the degree to which the support for the leadership in their ongoing response against the incoming.

領導層在應對即將到來的攻擊時，獲得了多少支持？

Well, it seems that the Iranians under such attack, which is illegal, which is.

嗯，看起來伊朗人民在這種攻擊下，這種非法的、

Was unnecessary, which was the war of choice, are rallying around the flag because they have a very, very bitter experience of what happened in the Middle east in the past two decades or so.

不必要的、選擇性的戰爭下，正團結在國旗周圍，因為他們對過去二十年左右中東發生的事情有非常、非常痛苦的經驗。

They've seen what happened to Afghanistan, to Iraq, to Syria.

他們看到了阿富汗、伊拉克、敘利亞發生了什麼事。

So they are deeply concerned about Syrianization of Iran.

所以他們非常擔心伊朗會被敘利亞化。

This is particularly since we hear the same actual rhetoric from Washington and Tel Aviv to, to fragment, to separate Iran into different pieces, to, to, to undermine and to destroy that the whole entire infrastructure in Iran.

尤其我們聽到華盛頓和特拉維夫發出同樣的論調，要將伊朗分裂成不同塊，要破壞和摧毀伊朗的整個基礎設施。

And also by targeting civilian and sometimes historical sites such as schools have been targeted, hospitals, museums and historical sites.

而且也針對平民，有時甚至是學校、醫院、博物館和歷史古蹟等歷史地點進行攻擊。

And that is deeply concerning Iranians and their sense of nationalism, of course.

這當然讓伊朗人民非常擔憂，也激起了他們的國家主義。

What is your sense of this latest ultimatum from Donald Trump alum giving, you know, 48 hours for the straight of Hormuz to be opened to everybody or he'll start attacking power plants within the country?

您怎麼看川普發出的最新最後通牒，給了48小時的時間，要求荷姆茲海峽對所有人開放，否則就要開始攻擊伊朗的發電廠？

We hear from President Trump himself, not to mention Tel Aviv.

我們聽到了川普總統本人，還有特拉維夫的說法。

At the same time, it's, he said that the war is finishing soon and it doesn't, it said that we will the regime change, the regime collapses soon.

同時，他說 戰爭很快就會結束，而且他說我們會看到政權更迭，政權很快就會垮臺。

They said they should kind of surrender completely.

We see that still they have their missile capabilities.

我們看到他們仍然擁有飛彈能力。

However, is just this way of thinking relying entirely on military force is, is something that, that President Trump should change.

不過，這種完全依賴軍事力量的想法，是川普總統應該改變的。

And that means the issues in the Middle east are much more complicated.

這意味著中東的問題要複雜得多。

We gender, ideological, social, societal, economic and political, geopolitical, geo economic, kind of factors of such wars.

我們看到，意識形態、社會、經濟和政治、地緣政治、地緣經濟等因素，都影響著這類戰爭。

And these issues cannot be resolved within 48 hours.

而這些問題不可能在 48 小時內解決。

And he, he just boxing himself, he pushes himself into the corner and tries to deal with these crises, with creating or adding more crisis.

他把自己逼到牆角，試圖透過製造或增加更多危機來處理這些危機。

Okay, Ari, from your point of view, what's your sense of what Trump is doing here and what it could mean for the conflict as a whole if he goes ahead with it and then Iran response in the way that it says it will and attack infrastructure across the Gulf Again, just anecdotally, the sirens are operating now.

好的，Ari，從你的角度來看，你認為川普在這裡的舉動是什麼？如果他一意孤行，伊朗也如其所言攻擊波斯灣的基礎設施，這對整個衝突意味著什麼？順帶一提，警報器現在正在運作。

我認為川普是個出了名的猶豫不決的人。

You know, he's not necessarily going to go through with what he's saying.

你知道，他未必會照他說的去做。

But also, I think that Trump has absolutely no vision for this war other than pummeling Iran.

但我也認為，川普對這場戰爭根本沒有任何願景，除了猛烈攻擊伊朗。

I don't even think he's talking about the fragmentation of Iran or the Balkanization of Iran.

我甚至不認為他在談論伊朗的分裂或巴爾幹化。

I think that with him, things are very simple.

我認為對他來說，事情非常簡單。

He wants to pummel Iran into a complete surrender.

That said, I don't think he's quite cognizant or that he is taking on what that would mean not just in the long term or for world energy prices, but

話雖如此，我不認為他完全意識到，或者他沒有考慮到這意味著什麼，不只是長遠來看，或是對全球能源價格，而是

what it would mean for the American military.

Disastrous ground incursion even into Hodge island or into Iran proper will, I have no doubt.

即使是進攻霍傑島或伊朗本土，災難性的地面入侵，我毫不懷疑。

And catastrophically for the American military, Iran is being quite consistent, quite durable, despite the really intense attack it's been undergoing for the past three weeks.

而對美軍來說是災難性的，伊朗一直相當一致、相當有韌性，儘管過去三週承受了非常猛烈的攻擊。

And there's no reason to assume that the Iranians won't do exactly as they say they're going to do which has been characteristic of Iranian behavior since the begin.

而且沒有理由認為伊朗人不會照他們說的做，這一直是以色列的行為特徵。

Ori Goldberg there in Tel Aviv and Alan Salah here in the studio.

Ori Goldberg 在特拉維夫，Alan Salah 在攝影棚。