Name: 凱文布克談油市、荷姆茲風險與價格衝擊！ (Kevin Book on Oil Markets, Hormuz Risk, Price Shock)
Uploaded: 2026-03-21T21:40:11.000Z
Duration: 5 min 3 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

Joining us now here in our Washington studios for some reaction is Kevin Book.

現在來到我們華盛頓工作室，為我們分析的是 Kevin Book。

基礎被動語態

He's managing director at Clearview Energy Partners and is steeped in the oil patch.

他是 Clearview Energy Partners 的總經理，對石油業非常熟悉。

分詞構句

And having watched everything we've seen in the past couple of weeks, it's great to have you with us on set.

過去幾週我們看到的一切，很高興你在現場。

He just made this post as you were sitting down with me in the studio.

你剛坐下來跟我哈拉時，他才發了這則貼文。

So I realized you weren't prepared to talk about it.

所以我明白你還沒準備好要談這件事。

What should be or will be the reaction in the energy market to this?

能源市場對此應該會有什麼反應，或者說會是什麼反應？

Well, molecules are one thing and markets are another.

嗯，分子是一回事，市場又是另一回事。

So if the cargoes we're talking about are the ones that are mostly headed to asia and about 80% of the hormones traffic from a crude oil perspective is going to Asia, then you still have to think about the global price implications of a shut straight and that washes ashore on our coasts despite where those molecules are going.

所以，如果我們談論的貨物主要是運往亞洲，而且從原油觀點來看，大約 80% 的荷爾蒙運輸都是前往亞洲，那麼你還是得考慮到關閉海峽對我們海岸造成的全球價格影響，儘管那些分子最終流向何處。

The President has said this quite a few times recently.

Could there be a world in which the President, I know he has said he's not interested now cuts off exports from this country and creates some sort of domestic pricing structure?

會不會有這麼一天，總統——我知道他最近說過他現在沒興趣——但他卻要切斷這個國家的出口，然後建立某種國內的定價結構？

Well, I think the news we heard this week is that they're not planning to do that.

嗯，我想我們這週聽到的消息是他們不打算這麼做。

We say exports, let's wouldn't even be possible.

我們說出口，這根本就不可能。

Well, yeah, it certainly, I think could be possible.

嗯，是的，絕對有可能，我想。

The powers in IPA might not be well suited to setting tariffs on counterparties, but

IPA 的權力可能不適合對交易對手設定關稅，但是

it could certainly be used to block exports.

And those, those things were mentioned actually in the Supreme Court ruling.

這些事情其實在最高法院的裁決中都有提到。

But to sort of look differentially at products versus crude.

但卻是以一種差異化的方式來看待產品與原油。

I think one of the areas we should be asking is what does this look like if this goes on for a few more months?

我想我們應該問的是，如果這情況持續幾個月，會是什麼樣子？

So right now you could say there's no atheists and foxholes, there is no free marketers in a supply shock.

所以現在你可以說，戰壕裡沒有無神論者，供應衝擊時也沒有自由市場主義者。

And so the administration is saying no, we're not going to block exports.

所以政府說不，我們不會阻止出口。

We're, we're looking at liberalizing these cargoes, these forward positioned sanctions ships and allowing them to go to markets they otherwise might not serve.

我們正在考慮放寬這些貨物、這些預先定位的制裁船隻，讓牠們可以運往原本可能無法服務的市場。

But at the same time, you know, if we find that we're the prices keep rising intractably and it's possible that they could, although today's news will have to process that and see what the market thinks of it.

但同時，你知道，如果我們發現價格持續難以抑制地上漲，而且有可能會這樣，儘管今天的消息需要處理一下，看看市場怎麼想。

But if you just extrapolate the crude closing price out to April 30th, you get to like 174 per barrel, thereabouts.

但如果你把原油收盤價直接推算到四月三十號，就會到每桶大概一百七十四塊左右。

And that you're doing no work work into it.

而且你根本沒做任何實際的研究。

With a little bit more modeling, you get somewhere between 174 based on demand elasticities.

再多做一點模型分析，根據需求彈性，你會得到大約一百七十四塊的數字。

And so the high end of that range looks really high, essentially doubling the gasoline price of the pump.

所以那個範圍的上限看起來真的很高，基本上就是把加油站的汽油價格翻倍。

At that point, you have to ask would they potentially look at products, exports?

到時候，你不得不問，他們會不會考慮產品出口？

你說的沒錯，戰壕裡沒有無神論者。

Because traders have had a heck of a time the last couple of weeks getting their heads around this.

因為過去幾週交易員們一直很難理解這一切。

And there was this initial thought that this will be short lived.

一開始大家覺得這只是短暫的。

We're seeing through this was the line by many analysts.

我們看到許多分析師都這樣說。

And it has really felt differently over the past 24 to 48 hours.

在過去的24到48小時裡，感覺真的不一樣了。

The introduction of this idea of ground troops potentially occupying Carg island, the idea of maybe the strait being closed for weeks, if not months more.

引入了地面部隊可能佔領卡戈島、海峽可能關閉數週甚至數月這樣的說法。

What are you hearing when it comes to sentiment among traders?

關於交易員們的情緒，你聽到什麼了？

I think there's a lot of interest in trying to figure out the answer to that first question.

我認為大家都很想弄清楚第一個問題的答案。

It's already on the edge of not a short war.

這已經快不是一場短暫的戰爭了。

Even if you look at it from the perspective of stopping today.

即使從今天就停止的角度來看。

And it's not stopping obviously today if we're talking about ground troops.

而且如果我們談論的是地面部隊，那今天顯然不會停止。

So I think we'll see how that discussion plays out.

所以我想我們會看看這個討論會如何發展。

But even if it did stop today, it's not a short crisis at this point.

但即使今天就停止，這也不是一場短暫的危機了。

We still have that lag time to get facilities that have been shuttered back up.

我們還是需要時間讓那些關閉的設施重新啟動。

Fadi Bharal, the executive director of the iea, was talking about six months for restarts of fields that shut down and facilities that shut down gracefully.

國際能源署執行董事 Fadi Bharal 提到，對於那些順利關閉的油田和設施，重新啟動需要六個月的時間。

Even if it were weeks instead of months, it would still be weeks.

即使是幾週而不是幾個月，那也還是幾週。

And then the damaged facilities could be much longer.

而那些受損的設施可能會更久。

Okay, so then this supply disruption will be at least weeks or months longer to your point, even if the conflict ends today.

好的，所以就像你說的，即使衝突今天就結束，這場供應中斷也至少會延長數週或數月。

Although part of the market price beyond that, if it saw this, this war end or a cease fire in place, well, the market looks ahead.

雖然市場價格有一部分會超越這個，如果市場看到戰爭結束或停火，嗯，市場會預見未來。

And so to the extent that you could say the strait was reopening, I think you could look at this very differently.

所以，如果硬要說海峽會重新開放，我認為你可以用非常不同的角度來看待這件事。

And I think listening to the admiral talking about the process for reopening the strait, that too didn't sound instantaneous to me.

我覺得聽海軍少將談論重新開放海峽的過程，對我來說聽起來也不是立即就能完成的。

$3.91 today, the average for a gallon of gas.

今天每加侖汽油平均是 3.91 美元。

Which means a lot of people are paying more than that.

這表示很多人支付的價格比這還高。

And while some are paying less, $4 I'm guessing is around the corner.

雖然有些人支付的較少，但我猜 4 美元應該很快就會出現。

Weeks or months more of crude being shut in or 20% being off the market would mean what for gasoline?

如果原油關閉或有 20% 的市場消失好幾週或好幾個月，對汽油來說會是什麼影響？

Yeah, if we get to that 175, 174 number, that's essentially a made up number.

對，如果我們達到 175、174 這個數字，那基本上是個虛構的數字。

Predicting oil prices is hard in the best of times and price discovery is even harder in a war.

在最好的情況下預測油價都很難，在戰爭時期價格發現更是難上加難。

But if we look at that, we're essentially doubling the pre war price on a crude oil content basis.

但如果我們看看這個，從原油含量來看，我們基本上是把戰前價格翻了一倍。

A six handle for gasoline on a national average basis.

以全國平均來看，汽油價格是六字頭。

Is there anything that the White House can do beyond releasing barrels from the spr, which it's already done.

白宮除了釋出戰略儲油，還有什麼能做的嗎？

What else could be done on a policy level here in Washington, if anything?

在華盛頓，政策層面還能做些什麼嗎？

Well, I think that again this goes to the will to intervene and as prices rise, interventions do tend to intensify.

嗯，我認為這又回到了幹預的意願，隨著價格上漲，幹預措施往往會加劇。

Yeah, we're already starting to see some, some price control, some of them soft price controls around the world.

是的，我們已經開始看到一些，一些價格管制，一些是軟性的價格管制，在全球各地。

That authority doesn't look obviously vested in the President's powers right now.

這項權力目前看起來並沒有明顯地授予總統。

But on the other hand there's inherent Article 2 powers that could be attempted in wartime.

但另一方面，憲法第二條賦予總統在戰時可以嘗試的固有效力。