Name: 兩大戰略夥伴的聯盟是否正在瓦解？| DW 新聞 (Is the alliance cracking between the two strategic partners? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-20T17:08:34.000Z
Duration: 17 min 34 s

Are the US And Israel on the same page when it comes to Iran?

美國和以色列在伊朗問題上立場一致嗎？

We're going to be talking about all of this with Aaron David Miller, a former Middle east negotiator who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

我們將和 Aaron David Miller 一起探討這一切，他曾是中東談判代表，現任卡內基國際和平基金會的高級研究員。

Are the US And Israel fighting the same war?

美國和以色列在打同一場戰爭嗎？

Bottom line, Hannah, thanks for having me.

Is frankly, there is much more that unites them, that divides them, occasional friction perhaps, but

坦白說，他們之間更多的是共同點，而不是分歧，偶爾或許有些摩擦，但

他們在某種程度上是戰略夥伴。

The US probably has not had a strategic partner literally in a major military enterprise since the end of the Second World War.

美國自第二次世界大戰結束以來，可能沒有過字面意義上的主要軍事行動戰略夥伴。

Okay, Aaron, we're going to come back to you in just a moment.

好的，Aaron，我們稍後會再請教你。

But first I want to show you guys that same question that Aaron just answered was put to America's top intelligence official said no.

但首先我想給各位看看，Aaron 剛才回答的同一個問題，美國最高情報官是說「否」。

The objectives that have been laid out by the President are different from the objectives that have been laid out by the Israeli government.

總統提出的目標，和以色列政府提出的目標是不同的。

So two allies fighting a common enemy with different objectives, how does that even work?

所以，兩個盟友在對抗共同敵人，但目標不同，這要怎麼運作？

Again, we can see through the operations that the Israeli government has been focused on disabling the Iranian leadership.

我們再次看到，透過以色列政府的軍事行動，他們專注於癱瘓伊朗的領導層。

The President has stated that his objectives are to destroy Iran's ballistic missile launching capability, their ballistic missile production capability and their navy, the IRGC navy and mine laying capability.

總統曾表示，他的目標是摧毀伊朗的彈道飛彈發射能力、彈道飛彈生產能力，以及他們的海軍，也就是伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊海軍，還有佈雷能力。

The director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard there.

國家情報總監，Tulsi Gabbard 在這裡。

Well, those differences were on full display when Israel attacked part of the world's largest natural gas field on Thursday.

嗯，週四以色列攻擊了世界上最大的天然氣田一部分時，這些差異就顯露無遺了。

It targeted Iran's South Pars gas field and energy facilities in Assa Luya.

目標是伊朗的南帕斯（South Pars）氣田和阿薩盧亞（Assa Luya）的能源設施。

Iran then retaliated by striking the Ras Lafan liquefied natural gas hub in Qatar.

伊朗隨後展開報復，攻擊了卡達的拉斯拉凡（Ras Lafan）液化天然氣中心。

This is the world's largest complex of its kind and processes gas from Qatar's so called North Field in the Persian Gulf.

這是全球同類中最大的綜合設施，處理來自波斯灣所謂的北方田（North Field）的天然氣。

Well, earlier in the war, Trump was reportedly angered by Israeli attacks on Iranian fuel depots.

嗯，戰爭早期，據報導川普對以色列攻擊伊朗燃料庫感到憤怒。

These pictures from early March show one of those depots on fire in Tehran.

這些三月初的照片顯示了德黑蘭其中一個燃料庫起火的畫面。

According to one theory, Trump is concerned that strikes like this on critical infrastructure could cause Iranians to rally around the regime.

根據一種說法，川普擔心像這樣攻擊關鍵基礎設施，可能會讓伊朗人團結在政權周圍。

That could also be why the president didn't take too kindly to this latest Israeli strike.

這也可能是總統對以色列最新這次攻擊不太高興的原因。

Iran is heavily dependent on gas and uses it to generate about 80% of of its electricity.

伊朗非常依賴天然氣，約有 80% 的電力是靠它發電。

Trump took to his social media site Truth Social to get something off his chest.

川普在他的社群媒體 Truth Social 上發文，想把心裡話說出來。

He wrote Israel out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle east has violently lashed out at a major facility known as the South Pars Gas Field in Iran.

他寫道，以色列因為中東發生的事而憤怒，猛烈攻擊了伊朗一個叫做南帕斯氣田（South Pars Gas Field）的主要設施。

A relatively small section of the hole has been hit.

The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, so the US Was kept in the dark, according to the President.

根據總統的說法，美國對這次特定的攻擊毫無所悉，所以美國一直被蒙在鼓裡。

Hours later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanya Netanyahu gave a press conference and said, America and Israel are acting together with great determination.

幾小時後，以色列總理班傑明·納坦雅胡召開記者會表示，美國和以色列正同心協力，展現堅定決心。

He then outlined Israel's three main goals.

接著他概述了以色列的三大目標。

One, removing the nuclear threat, second, removing the ballistic missile threat.

第一，移除核武威脅；第二，移除彈道飛彈威脅。

And third, this means creating the conditions for the Iranian people to grasp their freedom to control their destiny.

第三，這意味著要創造條件，讓伊朗人民能夠掌握他們的自由，掌控自己的命運。

Okay, Aaron, help us work out what's really going on here.

好的，Aaron，請幫我們分析一下到底發生了什麼事。

You advised both Republican and Democratic Secretaries of state, and

你曾向共和黨和民主黨的國務卿提供建議，而且

you're now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

你現在是卡內基國際和平基金會的高級研究員。

So you know what you're talking about here.

The goals that we just heard Netanyahu outline, are they in line with the American strategy?

納坦雅胡剛才概述的目標，和美國的策略一致嗎？

Mirza, let's unpack the several clips that you played.

Mirza，我們來分析一下你播放的幾個片段。

First of all, it strains credulity to the breaking point to assume that centcom, that has been coordinating military strikes with the Israelis, were not aware of the strikes in the South Pars gas field.

首先，認為負責協調以色列軍事行動的美國中央司令部不知道南帕斯油田的襲擊事件，這實在是太難讓人相信了。

I think the President is willfully dissembling here.

我認為總統在這裡是在故意含糊其辭。

the United States knew about it and acquiesced in it.

美國知道這件事，而且默許了。

That may not have been the case with the earlier strike against the Tehran refineries.

不過，對於先前攻擊德黑蘭煉油廠的行動，情況可能就不是這樣了。

So I think the President, frankly, is covering number two, when Chelsea Gabbard lays out what she believes to be the three core American objectives.

所以我認為總統，坦白說，是在迴避第二點，當 Chelsea Gabbard 闡述她認為美國的三大核心目標時。

If you look at the President's statements over the course of the last three weeks, we're now in the third week of this war.

如果你看看總統過去三個星期的發言，我們現在已經進入這場戰爭的第三週了。

The US in messaging has wandered all over the parking lot.

美國在訊息傳達上，簡直是亂七八糟。

Partly, he's talking about creating conditions for regime change.

部分原因是他談到要創造有利於政權更迭的條件。

He wanted to play a role in directly selecting the next Supreme Leader.

他想要在直接挑選下一任最高領袖方面扮演角色。

And frankly, I think the reason I'm relatively confident that they're both on the same page, even while they may articulate different objectives, is that the President has said repeatedly that we've won.

坦白說，我認為我之所以相對有信心他們兩人都站在同一陣線，即使他們可能表達不同的目標，是因為總統一再表示我們已經贏了。

We've obliterated all of the objectives that Chelsea Gabbard outlined.

我們已經達成了 Chelsea Gabbard 所列出的所有目標。

And if that is the case, particularly in a war of choice, not a war of necessity, why is the war continuing?

如果真是如此，尤其是在一場選擇性的戰爭，而非必要性的戰爭中，為何戰爭還在繼續？

And the war is continuing because there is another objective, which is to do as much damage, create as much dysfunction, as much fracture and chaos for this regime as possible in the hopes I think the Israelis have been very clear and unmistakable about this in the hopes that somehow, in some way, if these strikes continue, the regime will fracture and break, not necessarily change, but

而戰爭還在繼續，因為還有另一個目標，那就是盡可能地對這個政權造成傷害、製造混亂、分裂和動盪，我認為以色列人對此非常清楚且毫不含糊，希望透過持續的攻擊，這個政權會分裂瓦解，不一定是改變，而是

be so profoundly weakened that they can no longer control the streets.

會變得非常虛弱，他們再也無法控制街頭。

I think that's a very interesting point that you make there because Tulsi Gabbard said earlier that Israel's goal was to remove the Iranian regime.

我覺得你提出的觀點很有意思，因為 Tulsi Gabbard 之前說過以色列的目標是推翻伊朗政權。

Do you really believe that it's no longer an Israeli goal?

你真的認為這不再是以色列的目標了嗎？

I think the Israelis are waking up and smelling the coffee and have come to the conclusion that it may be harder than they thought.

我認為以色列人已經醒來，看清現實，並得出結論，這可能比他們想像的要困難。

And I'm not entirely persuaded that Israeli intelligence shared the Prime Minister's assessment that if, in fact the Israelis strike long and hard enough, that somehow the regime is going to collapse.

而且我並不完全相信以色列情報部門同意總理的評估，也就是如果以色列真的夠久、夠猛烈地打擊，這個政權就會垮臺。

And again, collapse is not regime change.

再說一次，垮臺不等於政權更迭。

Collapse and weakness and fracture is just that.

If we're talking about a transition to another regime that is not dominated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, that's a whole other order of magnitude.

如果我們談論轉變到一個不受伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊主導的新政權，那又是另一回事了。

I see very little possibility that that is the case.

我認為這種情況發生的可能性非常小。

So if in fact all of our objectives, the US Objectives, have been completed, why in fact, is the war continuing?

所以，如果我們所有的目標，美國的目標，都已經完成，為什麼戰爭還在繼續？

And it's continuing, in my judgment, partly because the President's war of choice has now become a war of necessity.

而且我認為，戰爭之所以繼續，部分原因在於總統選擇發動的戰爭，現在已經變成了一場不得不打的戰爭。

What was a U. S. Iranian war has now become a major global catastrophe.

這場原本是美伊之間的戰爭，現在已經變成了一場重大的全球災難。

Donald Trump cannot end this war, giving the Iranians that kind of leverage and the capacity to impose that kind of cost.

唐納·川普無法結束這場戰爭，給予伊朗那樣的影響力和造成那樣損失的能力。

This war is going to go on for a long time, and

這場戰爭將會持續很長時間，而且

the next phase of it clearly has got to be an effort which the American military can do to open the straits with or without our allies, and

下一階段顯然必須是美國軍方能夠做到的努力，無論是否有盟友的協助，都要打開海峽，而且

我猜測，很大程度上是沒有盟友的協助。

So I think we're talking here weeks more.

所以我認為我們還得再花上幾週的時間。

And the Israelis, by the way, the Israelis don't have the same kind of constraints, nor do they suffer the same sorts of costs, nor are they indebted to the Gulf states who, frankly, right now, if you ask me, who are the two biggest losers, Three biggest losers in this war.

還有以色列人，順帶一提，以色列人沒有同樣的限制，他們也不會遭受同樣的損失，他們也不會像波斯灣國家那樣負債，坦白說，以我來看，現在在這場戰爭中損失最大的，有三個國家。

One is the civilians, obviously, who are caught up in it.

第一個當然是捲入其中的平民。

The winners are Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu.

贏家是普丁和班傑明·納坦雅胡。

And I mean, with all that in mind, now, do you think, at least for the next few days, days or weeks, is there a clear US Goal?

考量到這些，你覺得，至少接下來幾天、幾週，美國有明確的目標嗎？

I think the goal now has got to be to figure out a way to relieve the pressure on the global oil market.

我覺得現在的目標必須是想辦法減輕全球油市的壓力。

And I don't see any way that you can negotiate that.

我看不出來有任何方法可以協商這件事。

If Donald Trump tomorrow got up and said, we're done, we won, and

如果川普明天起來說，我們結束了，我們贏了，然後

basically stopped, I think most Americans and most people who are watching this would breathe a collective sigh of relief.

就這樣停下來，我想大部分的美國人，還有大部分在看這件事的人，都會鬆一口氣。

The problem is the Iranians aren't going to let Donald Trump out of this war.

問題是伊朗人不會讓川普脫離這場戰爭。

They want to continue to impose a cost, and

they also want to make it unmistakably clear that the Americans try this again, there'll be an even greater cost and a greater price to pay.

他們也想讓大家清楚知道，如果美國人再試一次，會有更大的代價和更高的犧牲。

So, again, I think we're in for weeks, weeks more if we're lucky.

所以，我認為，如果運氣好的話，我們還要再幾週、幾週。

And, I mean, Netanyahu has now come out and said that the war may end sooner than people think.

納坦雅胡現在也出來說，戰爭可能會比大家想的更早結束。

字幕列表影片播放

兩大戰略夥伴的聯盟是否正在瓦解？| DW 新聞 (Is the alliance cracking between the two strategic partners? | DW News)

material

effort

acquire

capacity