Name: 【歷史性警告】魯比歐2015年伊朗警告如今看來「神準」！ ('I want this recorded for history': Marco Rubio’s 2015 Iran warning resurfaces and looks spot on)
Uploaded: 2026-03-20T06:52:06.000Z
Duration: 18 min 44 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

I do want to be recorded for history's purposes.

情態副詞

Iran will immediately use the money that it's receiving and sanctions relief to begin to build up its conventional capabilities.

伊朗將立即利用收到的資金和制裁寬免，開始建立其傳統軍事能力。

It will establish the most dominant military power in the region outside of the United States, but

它將建立該地區除美國之外最強大的軍事力量，但

They'll also continue to build long range missiles, missiles capable of reaching the United States.

他們還將繼續建造能夠打到美國的長程火箭。

And then at some point in the near future, when the time is right, they will build a nuclear weapon.

然後在不久的將來，時機成熟時，他們將製造核武器。

And they will do so because at that point they will know that they have become immune.

他們會這樣做，因為到那時他們將知道自己已經免疫。

And then they become an established nuclear weapons power.

然後他們將成為一個成熟的核武國家。

History will condemn us for not doing what needed to be done at this critical moment in the world's history.

歷史將譴責我們在這個世界歷史的關鍵時刻沒有做該做的事。

An old clip of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaking about Iran on the floor of Senate is being widely shared and he is being hailed as prescient.

美國國務卿馬可魯比歐在參議院發表演講談論伊朗的一段舊影片正在被廣泛分享，他被譽為先知。

Rubio, then a Senator representing Florida, warned against the Iranian nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama's administration.

魯比歐當時是代表佛羅裡達州的參議員，他警告不要接受歐巴馬政府談判的伊朗核協議。

I think everything that needs to be said about the details of this deal have already been said.

我想關於這項協議的細節，該說的都已經說了。

I do want to be recorded for history's purposes before I know what was going to happen in regards to this.

我只想在歷史上留下紀錄，讓大家知道將會發生什麼事。

If it goes through, Iran will immediately use the money that it's receiving and sanctions relief to begin to build up its conventional capabilities.

如果這項協議通過，伊朗將立即利用收到的資金和制裁寬免來開始建立其傳統軍事能力。

It will establish the most dominant military power in the region outside of the United States.

他們將成為美國以外該區域最主導的軍事力量。

And it will raise the price of us operating in the region.

這也會提高我們在該區域行動的成本。

They're going to build anti access capabilities, rockets capable of destroying our aircraft carriers and ships, continue to build these swift boats that are able to come on us, these fast boats that are able to swarm our naval assets and they'll make it harder and harder for US troops to be in the region.

他們將建立反介入能力、能夠摧毀我們航空母艦和船艦的火箭，繼續製造那些能夠攻擊我們、能夠成群結隊攻擊我們海軍資產的快艇，讓美軍在該區域的處境越來越困難。

They'll also work with other terrorist groups in the region to target American servicemen and women.

他們還會與該區域的其他恐怖組織合作，攻擊美國軍人。

And they may or may not deny that they're involved, but

他們可能會否認涉案，也可能不會，但

they will target us and raise the price of our presence in the Middle east until they hope to completely pull us out of that region.

他們將會攻擊我們，提高我們在中東地區存在的成本，直到他們希望我們完全退出該區域。

他們也會繼續製造長程火箭，能夠打到美國的火箭。

Those are not affected by this deal and they'll continue to build them as they've been doing.

這些不受這項核協議影響，他們會像之前一樣繼續製造。

And then at some point in the near future, when the time is right, they will build a nuclear weapon and they will do so because at that point they will know that they have become immune, that we will no longer be able to strike their nuclear program because the price of doing so will be too high.

然後在不久的將來，時機成熟時，他們就會製造核武器，他們之所以會這麼做，是因為屆時他們會知道自己已經免疫，我們將無法再攻擊他們的核武計畫，因為這樣做的代價太高了。

Today it's called North Korea, where a lunatic possesses dozens of nuclear weapons and a long range rocket that can already reach the United States and we cannot do anything about it.

如今，北韓就是這樣，一個瘋子擁有了數十枚核武器，以及一支已經能打到美國的長程火箭，而我們卻無能為力。

An attack on North Korea today would result in an attack on Tokyo or Seoul or Guam or Hawaii or California.

如今攻擊北韓，將會導致東京、首爾、關島、夏威夷或加州遭到攻擊。

And so the world must now live with a lunatic in possession of nuclear weapons.

所以，世界現在必須忍受一個瘋子擁有核武器。

To reach a point where they become immune to any sort of credible military threat because the price of a military strike would be too high.

達到一個他們對任何可信的軍事威脅都免疫的階段，因為軍事打擊的代價將太高。

然後他們就成為一個既有的核武國家。

And never in the history of the world has such a regime ever possessed weapons so capable of destruction.

歷史上從來沒有一個政權擁有過如此具有毀滅性的武器。

Iran is led by a supreme leader who is a radical Shia cleric with an apocalyptic vision of the future.

伊朗由一位最高領袖領導，他是一位激進的什葉派教士，對未來抱持末日預言。

He is not a traditional geopolitical actor who makes decisions on the basis of borders or simply history or because of ambitions.

他不是一個傳統的地緣政治行動者，不會基於邊界、歷史或野心來做決定。

He has an religious apocalyptic vision of the future, one that calls for triggering a conflict between the non Muslim world and the Muslim world, one that he feels especially obligated to trigger.

他對未來抱持宗教性的末日預言，認為有必要引發非穆斯林世界和穆斯林世界之間的衝突，而且他覺得自己有特別的義務去引發這場衝突。

And he's going to possess nuclear weapons.

This is the world that we are on the verge of leaving our children to inherit.

這就是我們即將留給孩子們繼承的世界。

And perhaps we ourselves will have to share in it.

而我們自己也許也必須分擔其中。

And so I want to be recorded for history's purposes, if nothing else, to say that those of us who opposed this deal understood where it would lead.

所以，我希望至少為了歷史紀錄，能夠說出我們這些反對這項協議的人，明白它將會導致什麼後果。

而且我們正在犯一個嚴重的錯誤。

And I fear that a passage of this deal will make it even harder for us to prevent it.

我擔心這項協議的某個條款會讓我們更難阻止這件事。

And I hope that there is still time to change our minds.

我希望我們還有時間改變心意。

Iran may have a supreme leader, but America does not.

伊朗可能有最高領袖，但美國沒有。

And soon we will have new leaders, perhaps in this chamber, but also in the executive branch.

而且很快我們就會有新的領導人，也許在這個議事廳，也可能在行政部門。

And I pray that on their first day in office, they will reverse the steal and reimpose the sanctions and back them up with a credible threat of military force, or history will condemn us for not doing what needed to be done at this critical moment in the world's history.

我祈禱他們上任第一天，就會推翻這次竊取，重新實施制裁，並以可信的軍事力量威脅來支持，否則歷史將譴責我們在這個關鍵時刻沒有做該做的事。

Prior to this speech, then Senator Marco Rubio also delivered remarks on the floor of the US Senate urging passage of the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review act of 2015.

在這次演講之前，當時的參議員馬可盧比歐也在美國參議院發表演說，敦促通過2015年的《伊朗核協議審查法案》。

I wanted to come to the floor today to speak about the risk that Iran poses to the world, and

我今天來到這裡，是想談談伊朗對世界的風險，以及

as a result, the legislation that's before the Senate at this moment.

是以，這項法案目前正在參議院審議。

A lot has been talked about in the media over the last months, years, quite frankly, about the notion that we're going to work out a deal with Iran.

過去幾個月、幾年來，媒體上充斥著我們將與伊朗達成協議的說法。

Sadly, I believe that the direction this deal is headed almost guarantees war at some point, certainly in our lifetime, but

可悲的是，我認為這項協議的走向幾乎註定了某個時候會發生戰爭，肯定會發生在我們有生之年，但

Let me back up and first describe what the issue is at hand.

讓我先退一步，說明一下目前的問題是什麼。

The issue at hand is that Iran, run by a radical Shia cleric, its government, I should say its people perhaps don't partake in this thought process, but

目前的問題是，由激進的什葉派教士統治的伊朗，它的政府，我應該說它的民眾或許不參與這個想法，但

it's government, whose head and supreme decision maker is a radical Shia cleric, has made two decisions.

它的政府，其首腦和最高決策者是一位激進的什葉派教士，已經做了兩個決定。

The first is they feel it is their obligation to export their Islamic revolution everywhere in the world.

第一個是他們認為有義務將他們的伊斯蘭革命輸出到世界各地。

And of course, it begins with the Middle East.

And two, they've decided they want to become the hegemonic power in the region.

二來，他們決定要成為該區域的霸權國家。

They want to become the dominant nation, the dominant movement in the Middle east and in that entire region.

他們想成為中東及整個區域的主導國家、主導運動。

那麼，要如何達成這個目標呢？

Well, first it requires you to drive the Americans out of the area, which is why we've seen them invest in all sorts of asymmetrical capabilities, like these little small swarm boats that they use to sometimes harass US Naval vessels.

嗯，首先，這需要你們把美國人趕出該區域，這也是為什麼我們看到他們投資了各種不對稱能力，像是這些小型的蜂群船，他們有時會用來騷擾美國海軍艦艇。

That's why you see them just a week ago basically hijack a commercial vessel on international waters.

這也是為什麼我們看到他們在一週前，在國際水域劫持了一艘商船。

The second thing they do is they sponsor terrorism.

第二件事，他們資助恐怖主義。

They have all these proxy groups and all these countries in the region that are doing their bidding.

他們在該區域有這麼多代理團體和這麼多國家，都在聽從他們的訓示。

不對稱，意思就是它不是正面的。

It's using some non traditional method to expand their power or to show their power.

這是利用一些非傳統的方法來擴張他們的勢力或展現他們的實力。

So they use these proxy groups like Hezbollah or now with the group, the Houthis that they're involved with in Yemen and in other parts of the world.

所以他們利用像真主黨這樣的代理團體，或是現在跟葉門的胡塞組織，以及世界其他地方的團體。

And the threat is that if you attack Iran, these terrorist groups will attack you.

而威脅是，如果你攻擊伊朗，這些恐怖組織就會攻擊你。

And in fact, we have seen the hand of the Iranian government in terrorist attacks.

事實上，我們也見過伊朗政府在恐怖攻擊中的身影。

For example, we saw an attempt to assassinate the ambassador of Saudi Arabia here in Washington D.C.

例如，我們看到一起企圖暗殺沙烏地阿拉伯駐華盛頓特區大使的事件。

we know that in 1994 there was a bombing in Buenos Aires that was linked to Iran.

我們知道在1994年，布宜諾斯艾利斯發生了一起爆炸案，這與伊朗有關。

But the third aspect of their desire to become the hegemonic regional power is, is a nuclear weapon.

但他們想成為區域霸權的第三個面向，就是核武器。

What do you need to acquire a nuclear weapon?

The first thing you need is a bomb design.

第一樣你需要的是炸彈設計圖。

And the truth is you can buy a bomb design.

而且事實上，炸彈設計圖是可以買到的。

The second thing you need is a delivery system, an ability to deliver the weapon, whether it's on an airplane or on a missile.

第二樣你需要的是運送系統，也就是把武器送出去的能力，不管是透過飛機還是飛彈。

And that is why Iran is developing long range rockets.

這也是為什麼伊朗正在發展長程火箭。

They're expending a lot of money despite all the sanctions that are on them.

儘管他們受到各種制裁，他們還是花了很多錢。

They're expending a lot of money to build these long range rockets, that isn't for some sort of fancy fireworks show.

他們花了很多錢來建造這些長程火箭，這不是為了什麼炫炮的煙火秀。

They're building these long range rockets because they understand that is the second critical component of a nuclear weapons program.

他們建造這些長程火箭，是因為他們明白這是核武器計畫中第二個關鍵的組成部分。

And the third thing is you have to be able to get your hands on enriched uranium or reprocessed plutonium.

第三樣你需要的是能夠取得濃縮鈾或再處理過的鈽。

And no one in the world is going to import to them weapons grade uranium or plutonium.

世界上沒有人會進口武器級的鈾或鈽給他們。

So they've decided to build the infrastructure to do it themselves.

所以他們決定自己建立基礎設施來完成這件事。

And they do it the way North Korea did it.

他們就這樣做，就像北韓那樣。

They do it the way other nations have done it.

他們就這樣做，就像其他國家那樣。

When they try to hide their program, they do it by claiming that they have a peaceful nuclear program that they're trying to build.

當他們試圖隱藏他們的計畫時，他們會聲稱他們正在建立一個和平的核計畫。

In essence, their argument is, we don't want to build a weapon.

基本上，他們的論點是，我們不想製造武器。

We're just trying to build nuclear reactors so we can provide electricity.

我們只是想建造核反應爐，以便我們能提供電力。

The first is this is an oil rich country.

第一，這是一個石油豐富的國家。

They don't really need nuclear energy in order to provide cost effective energy for their country.

他們其實不需要核能來為國家提供具成本效益的能源。

But the other is it costs so much money to build the equipment to enrich and reprocess.

但另一個原因是，建造濃縮和再處理的設備要花很多錢。

They could just buy it already reprocessed or enriched, and

他們可以直接購買已經再處理或濃縮好的，