Name: 航運與生技CEO談荷姆茲海峽供應鏈動盪！ (Shipping & biotech CEOs on Strait of Hormuz supply chain turmoil)
Uploaded: 2026-03-14T16:31:26.000Z
Duration: 11 min 25 s

基礎被動語態

So we have 10 ships right now that are stuck in the upper Gulf and can't get out.

所以我們現在有 10 艘船卡在上灣，出不去。

And we have numerous ships in the, in the tens of ships that are on their way to the region and for which we have had to, to have contingencies about where they're going to drop the cargo.

而且我們還有好幾艘船，數十艘船正在前往該區域，我們必須為它們準備好在哪裡卸貨的應變計畫。

Over the last 15 years of my time spent in commodity and capital markets, I've not seen this level of disruption before.

在我過去 15 年投入商品和資本市場的時間裡，從沒見過這種程度的市場動盪。

The reality is that, for example, Maersk, the largest in the world, has suspended the Gulf State bookings as it waits to see how long this conflict is going to continue.

事實上，像是全球最大的 Maersk，已經暫停了波斯灣的預訂，因為他們在等著看這場衝突會持續多久。

The chief executive of Merckx has said that some of his ships are stuck in the Persian Gulf.

Merckx 的執行長說，他的部分船隻卡在波斯灣。

However, the company is also avoiding Bab El Mandeb in the straits where Clerk says they can manage in the short run.

不過，該公司也避開了曼德布海峽，Clerk 說他們短期內可以應付。

So you've got two major areas at the moment.

You've got the Straits of Hormuz where they are not going, and

you've got the Red Sea once again where they are not going.

然後你又有紅海，他們也不去。

What this means for Maersk ships is they either just basically there or they just continue.

這對 Maersk 的船來說，意思就是她們要嘛就停在那裡，不然就是繼續前進。

So not surprisingly, as the war drags on, the major disruptions continue.

所以毫不意外地，隨著戰事持續，重大的幹擾也沒停過。

所以我們現在有 10 艘船卡在上游海灣出不去。

And we have numerous ships in the tens of ships that are on their way to the region and for which we've had to have contingencies about where they're going to drop the cargo.

還有數十艘船正開往該區域，我們得為她們的貨物該在哪裡卸貨做好備案。

They are not going to wait for the strait to reopen.

We will stage the cargo either in Oman or in Jeddah or in other places in ports where we have access to.

我們會把貨物暫時放在阿曼、吉達，或是我們能進入的其他港口。

And then the ship will go on their way to their next assignment.

然後船就會繼續開往下一個任務地點。

從那邊開始，就是荷姆茲海峽。

Are there any other areas that you're avoiding at the moment?

目前還有其他區域是你們會避開的嗎？

So for us, the Payal Mandeb Strait between the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea is also closed as a precaution because you will remember that for the last two years we have been subject to attack by Houthi militias in Yemen, which are a proxy of Iran.

所以對我們來說，阿拉伯海和紅海之間的帕亞爾曼德布海峽也因為預防措施而關閉了，因為你們會記得，過去兩年來我們一直遭受葉門胡塞武裝的攻擊，他們是伊朗的代理人。

And we feel that as much as, as the war so far has been focused on the upper Gulf, there is a risk that militia, that the proxies are being mobilized and start to take international shipping again as a, as a target.

而且我們覺得，雖然到目前為止戰爭都集中在上灣區，但存在一個風險，就是這些民兵、這些代理人正在被動員，並再次以國際航運為目標。

And therefore, we have decided to reverse the reopening of the Red Sea and continue to sail the long Way around Africa.

是以，我們決定撤銷紅海的重新開放，繼續繞道非洲的長途航線。

Now this, this would be bad enough if it was just for goods and containers for the region.

現在，如果這只是針對該地區的貨物和貨櫃，那已經夠糟了。

But Jebel Ali and other ports there, which massive trans shipment depots, the stuff comes in, it's parcelled out and then it goes on to other destinations.

但傑貝阿里和其他港口，那裡是巨大的轉運站，貨物進來，分裝後再運往其他目的地。

That makes this, that sort of is the ripples and makes it much worse.

這使得情況，那樣會產生漣漪效應，讓情況變得更糟。

I mean some of the, some of the hubs on which global trade does, does rely on are actually being affected, are being closed by the situation right now.

我的意思是，全球貿易確實依賴的一些樞紐，實際上正受到影響，正因目前的局勢而關閉。

Is true from Jebel Ali, is true for Abu Dhabi, it's true for a few of those hubs.

從傑貝阿里開始是這樣，阿布達比也是，那幾個樞紐都是如此。

And this is going to create ripple effect I think for a while as we need to see how this is going to sort itself out.

我想這會產生一段時間的漣漪效應，因為我們需要看看情況會如何發展。

But if this was to endure, this would create I think serious congestions and serious issues across the global supply chain.

但如果情況持續下去，我想這會對全球供應鏈造成嚴重的壅塞和問題。

The idea of either the US government or any government providing war insurance or some form of insurance and guarantees or indeed escorting your vessels through the Strait, I've heard that that's a bit of a non starter.

我聽說美國政府或任何政府提供戰爭保險或某種形式的保險和擔保，甚至護送船隻通過海峽的想法，有點行不通。

Yeah, I think that, I think the most important thing to start with is to say that we have colleagues on board those ships and we will never take a solution where it's just because we have insurance but we put them in harm's way.

是的，我想，我想首先要說的是，我們的同事就在那些船上，我們絕不會接受一個只因為我們有保險，就把他們置於危險之中的解決方案。

We're going to find that the solution is okay.

我們會找到一個可行的解決方案。

We're only going to act if we feel that the safety of our crew, the safety of our assets, the safety of our customers, cargo can be guaranteed by the solution that has been put in place.

只有當我們覺得我們船員的安全、我們的資產安全、我們客戶貨物的安全，能透過已採取的解決方案得到保障時，我們才會採取行動。

Whether it's a negotiated solution or whether it's a military solution.

無論是協商解決還是軍事解決。

You know, there are political authorities that need to decide what is the quickest and best way to reopen the Strait.

你知道，有政治當局需要決定什麼是重開海峽最快、最好的方法。

But for us safety remain our primary concern.

不過對我們來說，安全始終是我們最主要的考量。

And ensuring the safety of our operation, that is not something that we're going to trade on.

而且確保我們營運的安全，這不是我們會妥協的事情。

What do you make of the Chinese calling you and MSC in to basically complain about higher surcharges or Premier, because of extra costs, freight charges are going up and now the Chinese are piling on with their complaints to you.

你怎麼看中國方面找你和 MSC 談話，抱怨說因為額外成本、貨運費上漲，所以提高附加費或 Premier，現在中國方面也跟著提出他們的抱怨？

I think it's important to understand that a lot of the flow of oil that comes out of the Gulf actually is serving the needs of the Arabian Peninsula, but

我覺得要了解的是，從波斯灣出來的石油很多都是為了滿足阿拉伯半島的需求，

And therefore this energy crisis could have significant consequences on Asian Asian economies.

是以這場能源危機可能會對亞洲經濟帶來嚴重的後果。

And it's only natural for the Chinese government to be concerned about how this is shaping and to have dialogue with some of the strategic partners that serve China.

所以中國政府關心這件事的發展，並與一些服務中國的策略夥伴進行對話，這也是很自然的。

On other segments, we don't do tankers, but on other segments and want to engage on.

在其他業務方面，我們不做油輪，但在其他業務方面，我們也想參與。

How are we going to deal with some of that?

我們要怎麼處理其中一些問題呢？

They understand that the significant cost increases we are faced with right now as a result of this situation we cannot shoulder by ourselves.

他們明白，由於目前的情況，我們面臨的顯著成本增加，我們無法獨自承擔。

But they also want to make sure that there is fairness in the way that we deal with them, which I think is a fair concern.

但他們也希望確保我們在與他們打交道的方式上是公平的，我認為這是一個合理的擔憂。

And we're in constant dialogue with the Chinese government on multiple issues.

我們正在與中國政府就多項議題進行持續的對話。

This is just one that is quite high on the agenda right now.

這只是目前議程上一個相當重要的項目。

I mean, Maersk Giant, you're well used to crises.

Maersk Giant，你們對危機非常熟悉。

This is, you faced everything at some point as a shipping company, but

作為一家航運公司，你們什麼都經歷過，但是

this is on a scale that's almost impossible to manage.

I mean, we are clearly in uncharted territory.

我的意思是，我們顯然正處於前所未有的局面。

I think the main concern we have more or less resolved today, the safety of our crews.

我覺得我們今天大概已經解決了主要的擔憂，也就是船員們的安全。

For the time being, to the best of our ability, we have solved for the cargo flows to the best of our ability.

目前為止，盡我們所能，我們已經盡力解決了貨物運輸的問題。

I think the big problem that we have to solve now is with the strait being closed.

我認為我們現在必須解決的大問題是海峽關閉了。

There is enough oil in the world, but there is not enough oil everywhere in the world.

世界上有足夠的石油，但並非世界各地都有足夠的石油。

There is dislocations in the market where some areas have plenty of fuel and other areas could face shortages.

市場出現了錯位，有些地區燃料充足，而有些地區則可能面臨短缺。

And we need to be proactive in moving fuel around so that when we come to ports, we actually have the fuel that we need to keep on powering our network on.

我們需要積極地調動燃料，這樣當我們抵達港口時，我們確實有所需的燃料來維持我們的網絡運轉。

And that is something that is completely new.

So I think for me, the only parallel that there is is Covid where something we haven't tried before either, where we need to really familiarize ourselves with completely new areas, such in this case moving fuel around the globe so that we have the right amount in the right time at the right price.

所以我認為對我來說，唯一的相似之處就是新冠疫情，那時候我們也沒嘗試過，我們需要真正熟悉全新的領域，就像現在這樣在全球各地調動燃料，確保我們在對的時間、對的地點、以對的價格獲得適量的燃料。

The war in Iran, not just having an impact on oil and gas prices, though they are both up, it is also threatening fertilizer supplies critical for crops and food production.

伊朗的戰爭，不僅影響了油價和天然氣價格（儘管兩者都在上漲），也威脅到對農作物和糧食生產至關重要的肥料供應。

The Middle east is home to some of the world's largest fertilizer plants, and

中東地區擁有世界上一些最大的肥料廠，

it's a major producer of the raw materials necessary to make fertilizer.

是製造肥料所需原材料的主要生產國。

Around 25 to 35% of the global trade in those raw materials passes through the straight of Hormuz.

全球這些原材料貿易中，大約有 25% 到 35% 會通過霍爾木茲海峽。

But right now, pretty much nothing is passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

但現在，幾乎沒有什麼東西通過霍爾木茲海峽了。

With us now, Chris Abbott, CEO of the biotech company Pivot Bio.

接下來和我們一起的是，生物科技公司 Pivot Bio 的執行長 Chris Abbott。

Chris，非常感謝你來參加我們的節目。

Will you just explain better than I just did about why the Persian Gulf, why the strait is so important for fertilizer coming to the United States.

你能不能比我剛才講得更清楚地解釋一下，為什麼波斯灣、為什麼這個海峽對運往美國的肥料如此重要？

So I think context is important as you, as you laid it out there.

所以我想，就像你剛才說的，背景資訊很重要。

So if we look at this over the last 15 years of my time spent in commodity and capital markets, I've not seen this level of disruption before.

所以如果我們看看過去 15 年我在商品和資本市場的經歷，我從來沒有見過這種程度的市場中斷。

So if we look at the critical inputs for us in the ag economy, about 20% of LNG, about 30%, as you mentioned, of urea, that's our nitrogen fertilizer, and

所以如果我們看看農業經濟中對我們來說至關重要的投入，大約有 20% 的液化天然氣，大約 30% 的尿素，也就是我們的氮肥，還有

Sulfur is a key micronutrient for crops, passes through the strait.

硫磺是作物重要的微量營養素，會經過這個海峽。

Furthermore, the US imports this year almost 30% of its fertilizer from foreign countries.

此外，美國今年進口的肥料中，將近 30% 來自國外。

And so you can start to imagine how does that ripple effect take shape if you start to clog up the system at a time in which we're approaching planting.

所以你可以開始想像，當我們接近播種期卻開始堵塞系統時，這種連鎖效應會如何形成。

Growers in the southern US are already planting crops and many of them prior to last Friday.

美國南部的農民已經在種植作物，許多人在上週五之前就已經買好了氮肥。

The day leading into this conflict, have their nitrogen purchased.

在衝突發生前的這一天，已經買好了他們的氮肥。

And so what happens is you see that backup and it starts to show its ripple effect through the value chain and as we say, always hits the farmers first.

所以發生的情況是，你會看到這種積壓，然後它開始透過價值鏈顯現出它的連鎖效應，就像我們說的，總是先影響到農民。

And we've seen that urea prices are up 50% since that Friday before Friday 27th February, and

而我們看到，自從 2 月 27 日那個星期五之前，尿素價格已經上漲了 50%，

in places in the northern parts of the country, it's up almost 100%.

在國家北部地區，漲幅高達將近 100%。

Talk to me more about the specific timing here.

跟我多說說這裡的具體時間點。

Yeah, timing's tough on a number of respects.

是啊，在很多方面，時間點都很難掌握。

Number one, as I mentioned, on the planting cycle, it's hard because we're starting to plant.

第一點，就像我說的，在播種週期上，因為我們正要開始播種，所以很困難。

So the US heading into this conflict had only bought about half of its fertilizer.

所以美國在面對這場衝突前，只買了大約一半的肥料。

If you look at the total amount of fertilizer across all inputs.

如果你看看所有投入品的總肥料量。

But in this case, nitrogen is really important, was about half purchased.

但在這個情況下，氮肥真的很重要，大約只買了一半。

Then we woke up Saturday the 28th and everybody started scrambling.

然後我們在 2 月 28 日星期六醒來，大家開始手忙腳亂。

That's what led to that problem spike that I mentioned to you.

這就是導致我跟你說的那個問題高峰的原因。

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航運與生技CEO談荷姆茲海峽供應鏈動盪！ (Shipping & biotech CEOs on Strait of Hormuz supply chain turmoil)

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significant

tough

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