Name: 美國消費支出停滯，GDP慘遭重擊！ (US Consumer Spending Stalls, GDP Takes a Hit)
Uploaded: 2026-03-13T21:34:18.000Z
Duration: 6 min

頻率副詞

Consumer spending, real personal spending barely rose in January, up 0.1% as Americans cut back on goods and focused on essentials like health care.

一月份的消費支出、實質個人支出幾乎沒有成長，僅上漲 0.1%，因為美國人減少了商品購買，並將重心放在醫療保健等必需品上。

過去簡單式

Core inflation increased 0.4% on the month, 3.1% from a year earlier.

核心通貨膨脹月增 0.4%，年增 3.1%。

This is the one that they need to get down to 2% per their own goals, but

這是他們需要降到 2% 目標的指標，但

haven't been able to for many, many years.

We bring in Mike McKee, Bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent.

我們請到 Bloomberg 的國際經濟與政策特派記者 Mike McKee。

These are a group of really intelligent, accomplished, capable men and women who have a target that they haven't been able to hit for five years.

這是一群非常聰明、有成就、有能力的男女，他們有一個目標，但五年來都無法達成。

Far be it for me to give them advice because there's no open seats on the board.

我可不敢給他們建議，因為董事會裡沒有空缺。

And so even if I'm right, I'm not going to get a job there.

所以就算我說對了，我也沒辦法在那裡找到工作。

Yeah, They've been hit by a number of shocks.

對，他們受到了一連串的衝擊。

Obviously the initial shock was the pandemic and it sent oil prices up and energy prices up.

顯然最初的衝擊是疫情，導致油價和能源價格上漲。

And then we had an energy shock there that we're having again now.

然後我們在那裡經歷了一次能源衝擊，現在又再次發生了。

But we also had the tariffs come in and that's played a big role.

但我們也遇到了關稅問題，這也扮演了很大的角色。

We are seeing a little bit of better news in that the headline number did come down a tick to 2.8% from 2.9, but

我們看到了一些好消息，總體數字從 2.9% 下降了一點到 2.8%，但是

as Matt said, the core up 3.1% during the month.

正如 Matt 所說，當月核心數據上漲了 3.1%。

Spending was weak, but okay, up 4.10of a percent.

支出疲軟，但還可以，上漲了 0.40%。

The good, the good news in this report was wages and salaries were up half a percent after being up just 1.10of a percent in December.

這份報告中的好消息是，在十二月僅上漲 1.10% 後，薪資與工資上漲了 0.5%。

Now, what I just said there is important December and January.

現在，我剛才說的十二月和一月很重要。

less relevant because all of this is before the war, so we don't have any impact of that in this data.

關聯性較小，因為這一切都發生在戰爭之前，所以我們沒有看到戰爭的任何影響。

Another thing that caught everybody's attention today was GDP halving, going to 7.10 of a percent in the fourth quarter from 1.4%.

今天另一個引起大家注意的事情是 GDP 減半，第四季從 1.4% 降至 0.7%。

Consumer spending much weaker than thought.

Business spending much weaker than thought.

Real final sales, which is another perhaps better way sometimes of looking at this than GDP because it leaves out inventories and trade falls to 4.10of a percent from 1.2%.

實質最終銷售額，這有時候是另一種比 GDP 更好的觀察方式，因為它排除了庫存和貿易，從 1.2% 下降到 0.4%。

We also had a durable goods orders for January report that showed defense military aircraft orders were down 23.7%.

我們也看到了 1 月份的耐久財訂單報告，顯示國防軍機訂單下降了 23.7%。

You'd think that they might have thought of ordering more when they were planning all this.

你可能會認為，在他們規劃這一切的時候，或許會想到要多訂購一些。

That maybe says something within itself by the way I want to bring back up that screen you had showing PC because of all the decimal points.

順帶一提，我想把您之前顯示 PC 的畫面再叫出來，因為有這麼多小數點，這本身可能說明瞭一些問題。

I feel like we shouldn't let this go unnoticed because for January 0.363.

我覺得我們不應該忽略這個，因為一月是 0.363。

So I guess a softer result when you take it all the way out to the.

所以我想，當你把它全部算出來的時候，結果會比較溫和。

We're looking at all the decimal back to try to figure out how soft it is back to decimal points because of the rounding is important.

我們正在看所有的小數點，試圖弄清楚它有多溫和，因為四捨五入很重要。

Important is the rounding that sent us up to 3.1%.

四捨五入讓我們上升到 3.1% 是很重要的。

And so, you know, the Fed has to pay attention to how much the month over month has actually changed.

所以，你知道，聯準會必須注意這個月與上個月的實際變動幅度。

And unfortunately it doesn't change by much.

Unfortunately，它並沒有改變太多。

但我們必須進行所有這些測試。

Mike, I just constantly worry, especially given what GDP did and that inflation is still sticky.

麥克，我一直很擔心，特別是考量到 GDP 的表現，而且通膨還是這麼頑固。

If we're getting to a point where the inflation coming from the war is bad enough, we even are contemplating a hike, wouldn't that assume that growth is taking a really big hit too, that this isn't the energy shock of 2022?

如果我們來到一個因為戰爭導致的通膨夠糟的階段，我們甚至在考慮升息，這難道不代表經濟成長也會遭受重創嗎？這跟 2022 年的能源衝擊不一樣嗎？

Well, interestingly enough, the yield curve has flattened.

嗯，有趣的是，殖利率曲線已經趨於平緩。

And the reason it's flattened even though we are expecting more inflation is that bond traders are beginning to price in the idea of a real economic slowdown.

而它之所以趨於平緩，即使我們預期會有更多通膨，是因為債券交易員開始預期經濟將會明顯放緩。

So that's why the long end has been coming down.

所以這就是為什麼長期利率一直在下降。

The short end has just basically stayed where it is because nobody thinks we're going to be cutting rates anymore.

短期利率基本上維持不變，因為沒有人認為我們會再降息了。

The markets has priced out the idea of any rate cuts for 2026.

市場已經消化了 2026 年不會有任何降息的預期。

And if you look far enough out, 2000 end of 2027, they're pricing in a rate increase.

而且如果你看長遠一點，2027 年底，他們預期會升息。

Now, there's not going to be any statistical validity to that, but

現在，這沒有任何統計上的有效性，但是

it's an interesting turnaround from where we were, where it was just a straight line down for why not, why not increase rates now?

這是一個有趣的轉變，跟我們之前的情況完全不同，那時候大家覺得為什麼不現在就升息呢？

I mean, if you are shown data that you're still 50% above your target five years into the campaign you've waged against inflation, why not do something you're definitely not getting on the board?

說真的，如果你看到數據顯示，在對抗通膨的戰役打了五年後，你們的目標還是高出 50%，那為什麼不做點什麼，反正你們也沒什麼進展？

No, I'm just saying, like, I mean, I mean, we're still looking at unemployment.

不，我只是在說，像是，我的意思是，我的意思是，我們還在看失業率。

I don't think the President wants anybody who raising rates.

One is that we don't know what is going to happen.

一是我們不知道會發生什麼事。

If the economy is going to weaken significantly because of all of what's going on, then you don't want to be raising rates because that's just going to put an extra weight on the scale on that side.

如果經濟因為正在發生的所有事情而顯著走弱，那你就不想升息，因為那隻會讓那邊的秤盤更重。

But at the same time, there are two camps.

And the question is, do you think that where the Fed is now is high enough to continue putting pressure on it, on the inflation rate and bring it down?

問題是，你認為聯準會現在的利率夠高，可以持續對通膨率施壓並將其壓低嗎？

That's where the hawks are at the moment, because nobody's talking about rate increases.

這就是鷹派現在的看法，因為沒有人在談論升息。

The doves think that we're too tight and the economy is going to suffer from that.

鴿派認為我們現在的利率太緊縮了，經濟會是以受苦。

And so that's the debate that's going to have to play out.

所以這就是接下來會發生的爭論。

I like it for a moment, you know, because at some point I want to be able to take our officials at their word that they really are aiming at that target.

我喜歡這樣一下，你知道的，因為總有一天我希望能夠相信官員們的話，相信他們真的朝著那個目標邁進。

You know, we're having that debate in Europe.

你知道的，我們在歐洲也正在進行這樣的辯論。

ECB starting to get hikes priced in, as is the body.

歐洲央行開始將升息納入考量，其他機構也是。

So not completely crazy to ask the question of why not the U.S.

所以問為什麼美國不行，並非完全瘋狂。

well, Japan we knew is raising rates, but

嗯，日本我們知道正在升息，但是

Australia, I was looking at this morning there also, it's priced in for rate increases.

澳洲，我今天早上也看到，他們已經預期升息了。

So the rest of the world in a kind of a different position because they don't have all the oil that we have.

所以世界其他地方的處境有點不一樣，因為他們沒有像我們一樣擁有那麼多石油。

So the impact on them is going to be much worse with inflation.

所以通膨對他們的影響會更嚴重。