Name: 魯賓斯坦：你無法「強硬談判」壓低能源價格！ (You Can't 'Jawbone' Down Energy Prices, Rubenstein Says)
Uploaded: 2026-03-12T21:37:21.000Z
Duration: 4 min 38 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

過去簡單式

You left the one in the 70s down in Washington D.C. what's your assessment of this one?

你把70年代的留在華盛頓特區，你怎麼看這次？

現在進行式

Well, it's still a little early to say exactly what the long term impact is going to be.

嗯，現在說長期影響還太早了。

The CPI numbers that came out today were comforting, but

今天公佈的消費者物價指數數據讓人安心，但

they don't really take into account what the likely impact is going to be over the next couple of weeks on inflation because of the energy price increases we're now seeing or likely to see.

它們並沒有真正考慮到未來幾週能源價格上漲可能對通膨造成的影響，因為我們現在看到或預計會看到能源價格上漲。

But I think the market is probably going to be pleased with the numbers from the cpi, but

但我認為市場可能會對消費者物價指數的數據感到滿意，但

it won't really affect the Fed all that much because I think the Fed is probably going to say that we have to look at what the energy prices are doing over the next couple of days before it makes a decision.

這對聯準會的影響不大，因為我認為聯準會可能會說，我們必須先看看未來幾天能源價格的走向，然後再做決定。

在3月18日聯邦公開市場委員會再次開會時。

My guess is that probably you won't see any, any rate cuts.

我猜測，可能不會有任何降息。

I think the markets are suggesting there will be no rate cuts this time and that think that's likely to be the case because again, energy prices are probably going up a little bit more than the CPI numbers suggest today.

我認為市場暗示這次不會降息，而且我認為很可能會是這樣，因為再次強調，能源價格可能會比今天消費者物價指數的數據顯示的漲得更高一些。

So, David, the administration is doing its best to put a lead in cap energy prices.

所以，David，政府正盡力抑制能源價格。

We've seen the PR campaign over the past few days.

我們這幾天已經看到公關宣傳了。

Clearly though, this is a real energy shock that we're all grappling with.

不過，這顯然是一場我們都正在應對的真實能源衝擊。

I wonder how you're framing the difference at the moment between how equity markets and equity investors perceive this moment and the way that these strategists on the ground and the facts are playing out.

我想知道你目前如何看待股市和股票投資者對這個時刻的看法，以及地面上的策略師和實際情況的發展之間的差異。

How stark is the contrast between the two?

Well, obviously any administration wants to keep energy prices low.

嗯，顯然任何政府都希望維持低能源價格。

And when I worked in government we wanted to keep energy prices low.

在我任職政府期間，我們也希望維持低能源價格。

But if there's any part of the world's economy that is not subject completely to what the US wants its energy prices.

但世界上經濟的任何一部分，並非完全不受美國對其能源價格的期望所影響。

Because energy prices are determined as much by things outside the United States as by in the United States.

因為能源價格的決定因素，有很大一部分來自美國以外的因素，而非僅限於美國國內。

And today we still import a fair amount of oil even though we produce a lot of oil, we export oil, we still import oil and most of the developed world still imports oil or natural gas.

而今天，即使我們生產了大量石油並出口石油，我們仍然進口相當數量的石油，而且大多數已開發國家仍然進口石油或天然氣。

So I think the impact is likely to be not positive for the markets because I think people are going to be nervous that unless we the war has ended relatively soon and the energy prices stabilize, there will be some impact.

所以我想這對市場的影響可能不會是正面的，因為我認為大家會擔心，除非戰爭很快結束，能源價格穩定下來，否則會有一些影響。

We just don't know how long the war will go on.

我們只是不知道戰爭會持續多久。

And no one really can say for sure how long that will go on or how long the Russia Ukraine war will go on.

而且沒有人能確定戰爭會持續多久，或者俄烏戰爭會持續多久。

But clearly market leaders are nervous about a war that's going to go on too long.

但很明顯，市場領導者們對於一場會持續太久的戰爭感到緊張。

You worked in the White House under the Carter administration.

您曾在卡特政府時期在白宮任職。

What do you expect this Donald Trump administration to do to mediate consumers concerns, especially in a midterm election year?

您預期川普政府會採取什麼措施來緩解消費者的擔憂，尤其是在期中選舉年？

Well, that was a long time ago and the world's changed a fair bit.

嗯，那已經是很久以前的事了，世界也發生了不少變化。

But I would say that generally trying to jawbone down energy prices doesn't often work.

但我會說，一般來說，試圖透過言語壓低能源價格通常是沒用的。

Telling people they should not worry about it doesn't often work.

告訴大家不用擔心，通常也沒什麼效果。

I think really the test is whether the war is going to be ended in the relatively near future, because that's going to have the biggest impact.

我認為真正的考驗是戰爭是否會在不久的將來結束，因為這將會產生最大的影響。

If the Straits of Hormuz are blocked for some time, that's going to have a big impact.

如果荷姆茲海峽被封鎖一段時間，那會產生很大的影響。

So I would recommend that anybody in government, they, they should recognize that you can't just jawbone down energy prices.

所以我會建議任何在政府裡的人，他們應該要知道，你不能光靠嘴巴說就能壓低能源價格。

Obviously, we all are supportive of, of the effort to get the war over with as soon as possible.

顯然，我們都支持盡快結束戰爭的努力。

But it takes some time and it takes at least two parties to come to an agreement.

但這需要時間，而且至少需要雙方達成協議。

And right now I'm not sure there's any negotiations going on.

而現在我不確定是否有任何談判正在進行。

Hopefully something will resolve itself relatively soon though.

不過希望事情能很快自行解決。

David, if we weren't talking about oil prices, we'd be talking about JP Morgan marking down some private loans tied to software companies and this question of cockroaches and other questions that have emerged from private credit.

David，如果我們不是在談論油價，我們就會談論 JP Morgan 調降一些與軟體公司相關的私人貸款，以及這個關於蟑螂和其他從私人信貸中出現的問題。

I just wonder if you do get a Fed on hold and you, you do get more funding stress, how much that accelerates.

我只是想知道，如果聯準會暫停升息，而你又面臨更多資金壓力，這會加速多少。

A story that has been evolving in the private credit sphere of stress particularly tied to software.

這是一個在私人信貸領域不斷演變的故事，特別是與軟體相關的壓力。

Well, private credit is in relatively good shape.

Remember, there are enormous amounts of loans in private credit and relatively small percentage of them have had any default issues.

請記住，私人信貸中有大量的貸款，其中相對較小的比例出現了任何違約問題。

Only a few of them have had issues and as a result, they've gotten a lot of attention.

只有其中少數出現了問題，是以受到了很多關注。

But generally from the portfolios that I've seen in our firm and other places, I don't really think there's a big problem right now in private credit default ratios or things like that.

但總的來說，從我們公司和其他地方看到的投資組合來看，我認為私人信貸的違約率或類似情況目前並沒有大問題。

Clearly though, if the economy slows down and you go into a recession, I'm not saying we would, but

不過，很明顯，如果經濟放緩並進入衰退，我並不是說我們會，但

whenever you have a recession, all aspects of an economy are not going to be pretty.

每當有衰退時，經濟的各個方面都不會好看。

So our private credit would be affected by that.

所以我們的私人信貸也會受到影響。

But at the moment where we're not predicting, and

I'm not predicting a recession, I think the private credit is probably had a little bit more attention than probably deserves.

我認為私人信貸可能比應得的受到更多關注。

I don't think the private credit portfolios of most of the firms are really in trouble.

我不認為大多數公司的私人信貸投資組合真的有問題。