Name: 葉魯大學Jeffrey Sonnenfeld：川普對伊朗開戰「試水溫」尋找能引起共鳴的訊息！ (Trump is 'shopping messages' on Iran war 'to find out what works’: Yale’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld)
Uploaded: 2026-03-10T23:06:33.000Z
Duration: 9 min 58 s

情態副詞

For the last decade, Donald Trump has drastically reshaped the Republican Party and reshaped American politics altogether.

過去十年來，Donald Trump 徹底改變了 Republican Party，也徹底改變了整個美國政治。

In his upcoming new book, Trump's Ten Commandments, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a Yale University scholar and informal adviser to five U.S.

在他即將出版的新書《Trump's Ten Commandments》中，耶魯大學學者、也是五位美國總統的非正式顧問 Jeffrey Sonnenfeld，概述了定義 Trump 時代政治的十項原則。

presidents, outlines the 10 principles that have defined the Trump era of politics.

Jeffrey，非常感謝你來談這本書。

Jeffrey, thank you so much for being here to talk about the book.

我想先從你和總統的關係開始談起。

And I want to start first with your relationship to, to the president.

當時 Jeff Zucker 正在經營這個、這個、這個偉大的企業，他當時在經營 NBC環球。

Back when Jeff Zucker was running this, this, this great enterprise, he was running NBC Universal.

He asked if I would write a review each week for the first episode, the first issues, the first season of the Apprentice.

他問我每週是否要為《誰是接班人》第一集、第一期、第一季寫評論。

And I would go in the Wall Street Journal.

So I, I, he would get them to me a day in advance and he thought to be positive messages.

所以，他會提前一天把這些給我，他以為是正面的訊息。

But I looked at them, they were unbelievable.

As I referred to it as, you know, the elimination game premise that it was sort of like a musical chairs game at a Hooters restaurant with the sexist overview that it had because the outtakes are pretty scary that nothing that Access Hollywood needed to discover later when you see these things.

我稱之為淘汰賽的設定，有點像在 Hooters 餐廳玩搶椅子遊戲，而且帶有性別歧視的觀點，因為花絮內容很嚇人，這不是 Access Hollywood 後來發現的，當你看到這些時。

so if you can believe it, he's a little sensitive to criticism and he was a little threatening.

所以你可能不敢相信，他對批評有點敏感，而且他有點威脅。

After the first, first review, it was labeled Last Emperor Trump and I predicted he would run for president.

在第一份、第一份評論之後，它被標記為 Last Emperor Trump，我預測他會競選總統。

And he said, well, to Zucker, NBC and Wall Street Journal tear it up.

然後他對 Zucker 說，NBC 和《華爾街日報》撕掉它。

And the Wall Street Journal said, no, he sets with traffic out of this.

華爾街日報說，不行，他這樣會造成流量。

So I looked at it and said, you know, Mr.

所以我看了看，然後說，你知道嗎，先生。

Trump asked if I rescind it and you know, I do.

Trump 問我是否要撤回，你知道的，我會。

Last week I said that was the worst possible portrait of business leadership on television I could imagine for young people to follow.

上週我說，我認為那是我能想像到的，電視上最糟糕的商業領導力肖像，不適合年輕人學習。

But I hadn't seen this week's and we wound up actually ultimately becoming friends as he got pretty threatening.

但我還沒看這週的，最後我們竟然成了朋友，因為他變得有點威脅。

We'd go on the Today show, we'd go on to the old Kudlow and Kramer show and your old shows from the old sisters at CNBC and things.

我們會上 Today show，我們會上舊的 Kudlow and Kramer 節目，還有你們以前在 CNBC 的舊節目等等。

And the he I would wind up in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia or in Sao Paulo, Brazil, in battles.

然後我會在吉隆坡、馬來西亞或聖保羅、巴西，陷入苦戰。

So he called, said, let's get together for golf.

所以他打電話來，說我們一起去打高爾夫吧。

But as we got together on for lunch, he offered me the presidency of Trump University.

但我們一起吃午餐時，他提議我當川普大學的校長。

But he was trying to replace the squeaky wheel, actually drown it in oil rather than replace me.

但他其實是想安撫我，而不是取代我。

And we want them becoming friends because I suggested what became the Celebrity Apprentice.

然後我們成了朋友，因為我建議了後來推出的誰是接班人：名人版。

I said, the trouble is getting these engaging young millennials and putting them in this zero sum, throw them off the island setting.

我說，問題是我們要讓這些有魅力的年輕千禧世代，進入這種零和、淘汰制的環境。

And he said, well, that's the premise that Jack Welch, who GE owned NBC at the time, wanted us to steal from Survivor, from cbs, and

然後他說，嗯，這就是當時 GE 擁有 NBC 的 Jack Welch 想從 CBS 的 Survivor 節目裡偷來的點子，

So he just stole Mark Burnett to produce the same show in a business setting.

所以他只是找來 Mark Burnett 來製作一個商業版的相同節目。

I said, well, you know, you got nobody to lead if you're throwing them all off the island if you kill off.

我說，嗯，你知道，如果你把所有人都丟下島，殺光了，就沒有人可以領導了。

And I said, go for these fallen celebrities.

我說，就找這些落魄的名人吧。

So he moved it to the Celebrity Apprentice and we became friends after that, although I disagree with him about at least two thirds of the time.

所以他把它改成誰是接班人：名人版，之後我們就成了朋友，雖然我大概有三分之二的時間都跟他意見不合。

So you have studied Donald Trump the businessman and now Donald Trump the president, in terms of some of his strategies, how he approaches leadership.

所以你研究了 Donald Trump 身為企業家，現在又研究了他身為總統，關於他的一些策略，以及他如何領導。

And let's talk about one of the tenets that you write about in the book, specifically something called the stage sleeper effect, which you write is when someone states falsehoods with unwavering confidence, people begin to think, maybe there's something I've missed.

我們來談談書中你寫的一個原則，特別是叫做「睡眠者效應」，你寫說，當一個人堅定自信地陳述謊言時，人們會開始想，也許是我漏掉了什麼。

This is precisely how the sleeper effect works.

這正是睡眠者效應的作用方式。

You write, the messenger's confidence becomes more memorable than the message's accuracy.

你寫道，傳遞者的自信比訊息的準確性更令人難忘。

我們什麼時候看過他擁抱這一點？

It was studied at Yale in the 1940s and 50s, based on what was happening in Germany in the 1930s.

這是在耶魯大學於 1940 年代和 50 年代研究的，是基於 1930 年代德國發生的事。

The sleeper effect basically says for a sophisticated audience, and

潛移效應基本上是說，對於一個懂很多的人，

it sounds really class conscious, tell them both sides of the story, but

聽起來好像很階級意識，告訴他們故事的兩面，但

Just tell them one side and both times just keep pounding away.

只要告訴他們一面，而且兩次都一直強調。

And no matter who comes along to correct the source, like you have source corrections out there, are these pointer institutes or fact check places, newsguard or things.

不管是誰來糾正消息來源，就像你外面有消息來源糾正，這些是指南機構或事實查核機構，NewsGuard 或類似的。

People don't care about that because they.

They see that the mess lingers on the memory curve.

他們看到這個爛攤子會留在記憶曲線裡。

It lingers so you can still keep repeating the message.

它會一直留著，所以你還可以不斷重複這個訊息。

You can get maybe 20, 25% of Americans to believe that Haitian refugees are eating their neighbor's pets, even though it's denied by everybody.

你可以讓大約兩到兩成五的美國人相信，海地難民正在吃鄰居的寵物，即使這被所有人否認了。

Have you seen him employ that when he's discussing the war against Iran.

你有看過他在討論對伊朗的戰爭時，運用這個嗎？

Actually, what's interesting on that one, he's not sure what message he wants.

其實，有趣的地方是，他自己也不確定他想要傳達什麼訊息。

Just in the course of the last 48 hours, we happen to have President Herzog and the chief of strategy for the Israeli Defense Forces and the chief of Information officer, as well as Prime Minister Theresa May and others, some U.S.

就在過去 48 小時內，我們碰巧有以色列總統 Herzog、以色列國防軍的策略長、資訊長，還有英國首相 Theresa May 等人，還有一些美國

generals, and they all said, basically, what's the strategy here?

將軍，他們都說，基本上，這裡的策略是什麼？

He told us that the nuclear capabilities had been defanged, and

他告訴我們，核能力已經被解除武裝了，

now he's saying he wants to make it inoperable.

現在他又說他想讓它無法運作。

But wait a second, I thought where we were eight months ago, ten months ago, and.

不過等等，我以為我們八個月前、十個月前的想法是這樣。

And then he's shifted to say that we accomplished about 80% of what we want.

然後他又改變說法，說我們已經完成了大概八成的目標。

Then he said we've not yet begun the fight.

So it's confusing, but he needs to have a consistent message, and he usually does that.

所以這很讓人困惑，但他需要一個一致的訊息，而且他通常做得到。

But right now he's shopping messages to find out what works.

但現在他正在試探各種訊息，看看哪個有效。

And then once he sees what seems to be working similarly with Venezuela, he went through a whole litany of alternatives.

然後一旦他看到跟委內瑞拉類似的東西似乎奏效，他就提出了一連串的替代方案。

He suggested, we're going to Venezuela for drug interdiction.

他建議，我們要去委內瑞拉進行毒品攔截。

But when it turned out that he had just freed one month earlier of the former president of Honduras, Hernandez, President Hernandez, who hadn't just been extradited, but

但結果是他一個月前才剛釋放了宏都拉斯前總統赫南德茲，赫南德茲總統，他不僅被引渡，而且

indicted by a jury and then convicted by another jury and sentenced for 45 years, and

被陪審團起訴，然後又被另一個陪審團定罪並判處 45 年徒刑，

And that guy actually had proven links to massive drug trafficking into the US Whereas the Venezuela case wasn't so strong, is that didn't hold up.

而那個人確實有被證實與大量毒品運往美國的關聯，但委內瑞拉的案子就沒那麼強，因為它沒有成立。

And he said, well, let me try and say that it's Russian and Chinese ships.

然後他說，好吧，讓我試著說那是俄羅斯和中國的船。

So then he shifted to say, well, the oil industry put me up to it.

所以他接著又改口說，好吧，是石油產業慫恿我的。

And I called the leaders of the oil industry.

我打電話給石油產業的領導者。

They said, no, we have no interest in that sour heavy crude, Venezuelan oil, and

他們說，不，我們對那種酸重原油，委內瑞拉的石油，沒有興趣，

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葉魯大學Jeffrey Sonnenfeld：川普對伊朗開戰「試水溫」尋找能引起共鳴的訊息！ (Trump is 'shopping messages' on Iran war 'to find out what works’: Yale’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld)

constantly

massive

strategy

basically