Name: 哈米尼辭世後，伊朗將走向何方？ (What happens next in Iran after Khamenei’s death?)
Uploaded: 2026-03-01T23:05:24.000Z
Duration: 10 min 46 s

Inside Iran, mixed emotions as this milestone in the nation's history continues to unfold.

在伊朗國內，隨著國家歷史上的這個里程碑持續展開，人們心情複雜。

And this history that we are all now watching, some tell CNN they're joyful that Ayatollah Khamenei is dead.

而我們現在都在關注的這段歷史，有些人告訴 CNN，他們很高興艾亞圖拉·哈米尼已經過世。

Others, of course, are worried and angry about the future and the threat of instability.

當然，還有一些人擔心和憤怒未來以及不穩定的威脅。

He's a political professor at the University of South Florida and has written a book called Iran's Rise and Rivalry with the United States in the Middle East.

他是南佛羅裡達大學的政治學教授，並寫了一本名為《伊朗的崛起與在中東與美國的競爭》的書。

And really appreciate your taking the, I guess, professor, you know, Freed was just talking about that there's 92 million people in Iran, right.

真的非常感謝您接受訪問，教授，您知道，Freed 剛才提到伊朗有九千兩百萬人口，對吧。

So that there is always someone who could take over a spot that has been vacated.

所以總會有人可以接替空出來的位置。

But another way of looking at that is just the incredible depth and size and power of the nation.

但換個角度來看，這也展現了這個國家令人難以置信的深度、規模和力量。

And that for 92 million people, life has forever changed.

對於九千兩百萬人口來說，生活已經永遠改變了。

It's been since 1981 that the Dyatollah Khamenei has been president or supreme leader of Iran.

自從1981年以來，艾亞圖拉·哈米尼就一直是伊朗的總統或最高領袖。

You left Tehran for the United states in the 1960s as a teenager.

你在1960年代還是個青少年時，從德黑蘭搬到美國。

Then came the revolution in 1979 and you couldn't go back.

接著在1979年發生了革命，你就無法回去了。

So now here you are at this point in your life watching this happen.

所以現在你的人生走到這個階段，看著這一切發生。

It feels very strange because I, to be honest with you, I am very worried about the future of the country because we are going through perhaps the most volatile and the most dangerous period since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

感覺很奇怪，因為說實話，我非常擔心國家的未來，因為我們正經歷著自1979年伊斯蘭革命以來，可能最不穩定、最危險的時期。

We have this war with the United States, the greatest military power in the world, with Israel, the greatest military power in the Middle East.

我們正與美國這個世界上最強大的軍事力量，以及以色列這個中東最強大的軍事力量交戰。

And then at the same time, the leader of Iran, who had ruled Iran for 37 years, long years, has been killed.

同時，統治伊朗長達37年的伊朗領導人，如今卻被殺了。

And therefore, now there is not only we have a crisis in terms of Iran's military confrontation with two great powers, there is also internal turmoil as the country has to decide who is going to replace Ayatollah Khamenei.

所以現在不只面臨與兩大強權軍事對峙的危機，國內也動盪不安，必須決定誰要接替艾亞圖拉·哈米尼。

Moreover, there are a number of people who operate outside the governing elite in Iran, some of them inside the country and some outside of the country who now has seen the opportunity to try to shape the future of the Islamic Republic.

而且，伊朗許多在統治菁英之外運作的人，有些在國內，有些在國外，他們現在看到了塑造伊斯蘭共和國未來的機會。

Adding to all of this is that we have the US who seems to have a short term plan to force Iran to come to the negotiating table.

更糟的是，美國似乎有個短期計畫，想逼伊朗坐上談判桌。

We have Israel that has a longer plan because the Israeli plan seems to be to really degrade Iranian military capabilities.

以色列則有更長遠的計畫，他們的目標似乎是徹底削弱伊朗的軍事能力。

And then we have the policy or the strategy of Iran which wants to make this war as long as possible to make it as costly on the United States as possible.

而伊朗的政策或戰略是想讓這場戰爭盡可能延長，讓美國付出盡可能高的代價。

I don't know whether you think it's an oversimplification, but

我不知道你是否覺得這過於簡化，但是

there has, you know, sort of been initially the feeling that was put out there was the US And Israel will take out the supreme Leader and then leave the rest of the Iranian people, that this sort of the Runway has been cleared for the Iranian people to rise up and take over and ride into the sunset.

一開始大家普遍認為，美國和以色列會除掉最高領導人，然後留下伊朗人民，為伊朗人民的崛起、接管並走向美好未來鋪平道路。

And, you know, I'm obviously oversimplifying, but that that's the feeling out there for some.

我當然是過於簡化了，但有些人確實是這樣感覺的。

New Yorker columnist Robin Wright was reacting to Trump's comments on CNN last night when, you know, when he talked about the Iranian people now taking over for themselves.

《紐約客》專欄作家 Robin Wright 在川普總統昨晚於 CNN 上發表關於伊朗人民將自己掌握未來的談話時，做出了這樣的反應。

The Iranians have many young Nelson Mandelas, but

伊朗人有很多年輕的納爾遜·曼德拉，但是

they don't have the kind of African National Congress you had in South Africa that had years to form an infrastructure to define what the alternative to apartheid might look like and who would be its leadership.

他們沒有像南非那樣的非洲人國民大會，非洲人國民大會經過多年時間來建立基礎設施，以定義反種族隔離制度的替代方案可能看起來如何，以及誰將成為其領導層。

So I remember being in Iran for the election of President Rouhani and seeing, you know, the way they would open up mosques for voting, right.

所以我記得在魯哈尼總統當選時身在伊朗，你知道，他們會開放清真寺供投票，對吧。

That there was, there was, there was a voting process, but it was completely controlled, right?

有一個投票過程，但它完全受到控制，對吧？

Do opposition leaders in Iran right now have any sort of an infrastructure or a path to power?

伊朗國內的反對派領導人現在有任何基礎設施或通往權力的道路嗎？

Well, the literature, the academic literature is very clear that air power alone is not going to overthrow a well fortified revolutionary regime like the Islamic Republic.

嗯，學術文獻非常清楚，單靠空中力量無法推翻像伊斯蘭共和國這樣戒備森嚴的革命政權。

You need to have people inside the country who have weapons, who have financial support, and

你需要有國內的人擁有武器、擁有財政支持，而且

最重要的是，他們是有組織的。

At this time, to be honest with you, I do not see anyone with the capability to immediately take over the government.

說實話，目前我沒看到任何人有能力立刻接管政府。

However, as I said, there are contenders outside of Iran and inside Iran who believe they can actually change the regime.

不過，就像我說的，伊朗境外和境內都有一些競爭者，他們認為自己真的能改變這個政權。

At this time, it seems to me the odds are against those who want to immediately overthrow the Islamic Republic because as I have said numerously and I have written about it, the Islamic Republic has proven in the past 48 years that it is not a government that is good and economic prosperity bringing economics prosperity in governing, but

目前看來，想立刻推翻伊斯蘭共和國的人勝算不大，因為我已經說過很多次，也寫過，伊斯蘭共和國在過去 48 年證明瞭它不是一個在治理上能帶來經濟繁榮的政府，但

it is an extremely effective government for suppressing people and for survival.

它是一個極其擅長鎮壓人民、求生存的政府。

And the idea in Tehran, the idea that is unifying everybody who has one way or another, worked with the Islamic Republic, is that we have entered an existential moment precisely because the president of the United States has called for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.

在德黑蘭，這個讓或多或少與伊斯蘭共和國合作過的每個人團結起來的想法是，我們進入了一個生死存亡的時刻，這正是因為美國總統呼籲推翻伊斯蘭共和國。

I want to Bring in President Trump's former National Security Adviser and former UN Ambassador John Bolton.

我想請川普總統的前國家安全顧問兼前聯合國大使約翰·博爾頓加入。

Ambassador Bolton, the day started with that exchange of threats.

博爾頓大使，這一天始於那場威脅的交換。

But by the late morning, as President Trump has been calling around to media outlets, he told the Atlantic that the new leaders in Iran, quote, want to talk.

但到了上午晚些時候，川普總統在聯繫媒體時，他告訴《大西洋月刊》，伊朗的新領導人「想要對話」。

And on top of that, Oman's Foreign Ministry also says that Iran is open to any serious efforts at de escalation.

而且，阿曼外交部也表示，伊朗願意接受任何認真的緩和局勢的努力。

So should the US work with the remnants of the existing Iranian regime similar to what they have done so far in Venezuela?

那麼，美國應該像在委內瑞拉那樣，與現有伊朗政權的殘餘勢力合作嗎？

I have no doubt that whatever is left of Iran's top leadership is perfectly happy to talk to the United States to play for time to stop us and the Israelis from pounding them.

我毫不懷疑，伊朗領導層剩下的任何人，都樂於與美國對話，拖延時間，阻止我們和以色列人攻擊他們。

The threat that they pose to us remains unresolved.

他們對我們構成的威脅仍然沒有解決。

That's why the President has selected the correct objective here, which is regime change.

這就是為什麼總統在這裡選定了正確的目標，那就是政權更迭。

We need to have patience and not listen to those that will do anything, say anything to get us to stop.

我們需要有耐心，不要聽信那些為了讓我們停止而什麼都肯做、什麼都肯說的人。

Yeah, but I think people are also eager to get a sense of what is next.

是啊，但我覺得大家也很想知道接下來會怎麼樣。

I mean, as you know, the late Shah's son, Reza Pahlavi has been suggesting that he is the person who could lead Iran.

就像你所知道的，已故國王的兒子禮薩·巴列維，一直表示他才是能領導伊朗的人。

Do you think that he actually has the support, the power, the infrastructure to do that?

你覺得他真的有這樣的支持、權力、基礎設施嗎？

Well, we don't know whether he does or anybody else does.

嗯，我們不知道他有沒有，或是其他人有沒有。

And I think it's a mistake to focus on who the next leader of a non ayatollah led Iran will be.

我認為把焦點放在誰會是下一個領導非阿亞圖拉領導的伊朗的人，是個錯誤。

Once we have a non ayatollah led Iran, then we can worry about it.

一旦我們有了非阿亞圖拉領導的伊朗，我們再來擔心這件事。

As Jim Baker always used to say to me, keep your eyes on the prize, and

就像吉姆·貝克總是對我說的，專注在目標上，

I think the most likely outcome, certainly, probably the best outcome, would be a regime led by the regular Iranian military, not the Revolutionary Guard, but

我認為最有可能的結果，當然，也可能是最好的結果，就是由伊朗正規軍領導，而不是革命衛隊，

the conventional military that understands that its role is limited and that really they need to set up a process for Iranians in country and for people from the who have been exiled to go back and participate.

而是那些明白自己角色有限的正規軍，並且真的需要建立一個機制，讓國內的伊朗人以及流亡海外的伊朗人能夠回國參與。

But to try and do it in advance, I think, is putting the cart before the horse.

但我認為，試圖提前這麼做，就像是本末倒置。

Let me play what President Trump had to say to the people of Iran.

讓我來播放川普總統對伊朗人民說的話。

Listen, When we are finished, take over your government.

聽著，等我們結束後，就接管你們的政府。

This will be probably your only chance for generations.

這可能是你們幾代人才有一次的機會。

I'm curious what your reaction to that is and also how.

我很好奇你對此有什麼反應，以及如何。

How can the regular Iranian people take over their government at this stage.

在這個階段，伊朗的普通人民要如何接管他們的政府？

Well, it's remarks like that and one other thing he said in that speech that leave me worried that we have not coordinated effectively with the opposition inside Iran.

嗯，就是像這樣的話，還有他在那場演講中說的另一件事，讓我很擔心我們沒有和伊朗國內的反對派有效協調。

It doesn't have enormous structure or leadership, but the dissatisfaction with the regime has never been more widespread.

它沒有龐大的組織或領導層，但對政權的不滿情緒從未如此普遍。

The regime is weaker now than it has been at any point since it was founded in 1979.

這個政權現在比自1979年成立以來任何時候都要弱。

And it won't be, I think, a transition from an ayatollah led regime or really a Revolutionary guard led regime.

我認為，這不會是從由阿亞圖拉領導或實際上由革命衛隊領導的政權過渡。

I think it's the guard that's really in control in Iran to the people.

我認為實際上是衛隊在伊朗對人民擁有控制權。

The ayatollahs have been in power for 47 years.

And I think we need some persistence and some patience here.

我認為我們在這裡需要一些堅持和耐心。

I hope the administration is ready for that.

我希望政府已經準備好應對了。

I hope they make the case better than they have so far to the American people that this could take time.

我希望他們能比目前為止更好地向美國民眾說明，這可能需要時間。

It's not time involving boots on the ground, but

這不是需要地面部隊的時間，但

if we are successful, as it appears that we are well on the way to doing of having complete air dominance over Iran, meaning we're we can take our time, that we shouldn't be pressed by eight days, nine days, is it going to be over in 10 days?

如果我們成功了，就像我們看起來正朝著完全制空權的方向邁進一樣，這意味著我們可以慢慢來，不應該被八天、九天、十天內會結束嗎？給壓迫。

It will be over when it's over, if that's our real objective.

如果我們的真正目標是這樣，那就會結束。

If regime changes our objective, we should have known going in.

如果政權更迭是我們的目標，我們一開始就應該知道。

We cannot predict at the outset how long it will take.

我們無法預測一開始需要多久。

Ambassador John Bolton, thank you very much for joining us.

約翰·博爾頓大使，非常感謝您加入我們。