Name: 他完了！川普的惡夢式崩盤可能是他結局的關鍵：Melber 揭露事實，深入解析期中選舉！ (HE'S DONE! Trump's nightmare CRASH may be how it ends: Melber has facts on the implosion, midterms)
Uploaded: 2026-02-24T23:06:25.000Z
Duration: 17 min 36 s

分詞構句

Right now, heading into the State of the Union, we are going to document a resilient civic fact, often obscured because Trump's movement works hard and spends millions to spin it.

現在，在國情諮文登場前，我們要記錄一個堅韌的公民事實，這個事實經常被掩蓋，因為川普陣營會努力投入數百萬資金來扭曲它。

But Donald Trump in America is unpopular.

但唐納·川普在美國不受歡迎。

He has netted fewer votes in most of the elections he's run in.

在他參與的大部分選舉中，他得到的票數都比較少。

Very simply, most of his political career, he has been leading what is a loyal minority.

非常簡單來說，在他大部分的政治生涯中，他一直領導著一個忠誠的少數群體。

When everyone had voted, they preferred the alternative of Hillary Clinton.

當所有人都投票後，他們更傾向於希拉蕊·柯林頓。

In 20, he famously lost by over four points.

20年時，他以慘敗收場，輸了超過四分。

He doesn't have much of a majority over time, silent or otherwise.

長久以來，無論是沉默的大眾還是其他，他都沒有多少多數支持。

這在所有可衡量的方面都是事實。

He came back there with about a point and a half.

他以大約一點五分的差距回到了那裡。

And Trump's chaotic year since that one and a half point win has landed him back in the same weak spot that's his norm.

自從那一點五分的勝利以來，川普混亂的一年讓他又回到了他一貫的弱點。

This low that he's in tonight that had Republicans talking about enough is enough.

他今晚的低點讓共和黨人談論著受夠了。

This is a far cry from those early claims.

We heard that the 2024 win was a broad realignment.

我們聽到2024年的勝利是一次廣泛的政治板塊重組。

Hopefully, lasting, transformational change.

希望是持續的、轉型性的改變。

President Trump doesn't get credit for the complete realignment of American politics.

川普總統沒有因為美國政治的徹底板塊重組而獲得讚賞。

President Trump will do nothing that interferes with the success of the country.

川普總統不會做任何妨礙國家成功的 ગતિ。

What Trump, President Trump is trying to do has significant support.

川普，川普總統正在做的，有顯著支持。

What is going to be the biggest political phoenix from the ashes story that we have ever seen, Ever?

我們將會看到有史以來最偉大的政治浴火重生故事，有史以來？

If any of those claims were even largely true, Donald Trump would not have crashed down to today's historically low support.

如果那些說法有任何一項大致為真，唐納·川普就不會跌至今天歷史低點的支持度。

By definition, a political realignment would last more than a year.

根據定義，政治板塊重組會持續一年以上。

And narratives matter because they shape actions.

而敘事很重要，因為它們形塑了行動。

Many debated whether 2024 was either a, more about a rejection of Biden, Harris and their economy, or B, a big embrace of Trump and his plans for the long term, which would certainly mean more than a year.

許多人爭論 2024 年究竟是 A、更多地是拒絕拜登、賀錦麗和他們的經濟，還是 B、大力擁抱川普和他長遠的計畫，這肯定會超過一年。

Trump narrowly won by a point and a half overall, as I showed you, and

我之前給你們看過，川普總體上以一點五個百分點險勝，

that is one of the closest finishes in the modern era.

這是現代史上最接近的幾次勝利之一。

You can see little tiny 2024 Trump margin there against the much taller Biden.

你可以看到 2024 年川普那微小的差距，對比高大的拜登。

If you want to talk about when he first came charging onto the scene with seven points, Trump has never gotten half of that margin.

如果你想談談他首次登場時以七個百分點衝上來，川普從來沒有拿到過那種差距的一半。

So the claim that there was a Republican with a mandate in the country does not apply to any of Trump's races.

所以，共和黨人獲得國家授權的說法，並不適用於川普的任何一場競選。

Not the two where he got fewer votes, not the one where he got a point and a Half.

不是他得票較少的兩次，也不是他贏一點五個百分點的那次。

And it's now undercut by the enduring fact that, remember, most Americans choose the Democrat for White House races over the Republican most of the time, that is in seven of the last nine elections, the blue is usually above.

而且，這現在被一個持久的事實削弱了，記住，大多數美國人大多數時候在白宮競選中選擇民主黨而非共和黨，這是在過去九次選舉中的七次，藍色通常會領先。

You're looking at a historical fact that the American people usually choose the Democrat.

你看到的是一個歷史事實，美國人民通常會選擇民主黨。

It's the clearest view of the public's preference.

If you just want to put, put all the punditry aside, forget everyone talking on TV and podcasts and just say, well, what has the public actually been choosing?

如果你只想放下，放下所有評論員的說法，忘掉所有在電視和 Podcast 上發言的人，然後說，嗯，公眾到底選擇了什麼？

I'm not telling you whether that's good or bad or you have to agree.

我不是在告訴你這好不好，或者你必須同意。

I'm just telling you that's what more people have done.

我只是告訴你，更多人是這麼做的。

That's the context of Trump trying to claim he's so popular.

這就是川普試圖聲稱自己非常受歡迎的背景。

And if that seems odd or surprising, maybe it's because one, we have an electoral college which sometimes put the number two in the White House, which is confusing.

如果這聽起來有點奇怪或令人驚訝，也許是因為，第一，我們有選舉人團制度，有時候會讓得票第二名的人入主白宮，這讓人困惑。

You start to think back and kind of forget that, well, Hillary Clinton was actually preferred by more voters.

你會開始回想，有點忘記了，希拉蕊·柯林頓其實更受選民青睞。

And also there's a well funded right wing media machine and it insists that Democrats are an out of touch, woke losing minority party.

而且還有一個資金雄厚的右翼媒體機器，它堅持認為民主黨是一個脫節、覺醒、輸掉的少數黨。

If you want to just say you don't like them, fine.

如果你只是想說你不喜歡他們，那也沒關係。

As for whether they're losing, no, most of the time, as you see on your screen, including in the Trump era, people choose the Democrat and the people are also speaking against Trump.

至於他們是不是輸了，不是的，大多數時候，就像你們畫面上看到的，包括在川普執政時期，大家都會選擇民主黨，而且大家也都在反對川普。

Now, Americans rejecting this term as they've learned about it.

現在，美國人已經學會了這個詞，並對其產生了排斥。

他的支持度落後了約15個百分點。

As Trump goes into this state of the union, he was always an unpopular figure.

當川普進入這次國情諮文時，他一直以來都是一個不受歡迎的人物。

That's even before we get to the midterms where it was his type of party leadership that was shellacked.

這甚至還沒算到期中選舉，當時正是他這種黨內領導風格慘敗。

He returned to the White House on a very clear promise to fix something that many people, most people thought Biden and Harris were doing wrong, that the economy was bad, the prices were too high, they weren't fixing it.

他帶著一個非常明確的承諾重返白宮，要修復許多人，大多數人都認為拜登和賀錦麗做得不對的事情，像是經濟不好、物價太高，他們沒有解決。

And Americans now disapprove of Trump's results on that issue.

而美國人現在對川普在該議題上的表現表示不認同。

Donald Trump was hired or rehired to fix the economy.

唐納·川普被僱用或重新僱用來修復經濟。

And Americans don't like what's cooking with the economy.

而美國人並不喜歡現在經濟的發展狀況。

A year ago when we got these exit polls, it said 45% of voters felt worse off than before.

一年前，當我們看到這些出口民調時，顯示有 45% 的選民覺得日子比以前更難過了。

Economically, Here we are a year later, and

what I think we're seeing at least some Democrats succeed on is, how's that going?

我認為我們看到至少有些民主黨人在這方面做得不錯，那進展如何呢？

This is the first chance we have to be like, okay, voters, like, thumbs up, thumbs down, broadly, how are we doing?

這是我們第一次有機會可以說，好了，選民們，大家給個讚或不讚，總體來說，我們做得怎麼樣？

All of these elections are about affordability.

所有的選舉都跟負擔能力有關。

The public rejecting Trump's record on the economy and affordability.

民眾拒絕川普在經濟和負擔能力上的政績。

Now, Friday, the Supreme Court rejecting his trade war power grab.

現在，週五，最高法院駁回了他貿易戰的權力擴張。

And you have those elections that we were talking about at the table, a rejection of Trump's policies, embracing Democrats instead.

而你也有我們在餐桌上談到的那些選舉，選民們拒絕川普的政策，轉而支持民主黨。

Some of them quite liberal MAGA allies, say Trump still has his own special loyal voting bloc.

有些MAGA盟友，即使是相當自由派的，也說川普仍然有他自己獨特的忠誠選民群體。

And you'll hear about that if you talk about the facts that I'm mentioning, that he is historically unpopular, that people don't like Trump, that they didn't vote for him most of the time, those are facts.

如果你談論我提到的這些事實，你會聽到，他歷史上不受歡迎，人們不喜歡川普，他們大部分時間都沒有投票給他，這些都是事實。

Then the young men who did go towards Trump, which is unusual based on how younger voters tend to come out, they're not all staying, but

然後那些確實支持川普的年輕男性，這很不尋常，因為年輕選民的投票傾向，他們不是全部都留下來，但是

有些人已經開始傾向民主黨了。

Those races I mentioned, now, that didn't cover the whole country, but

我提到的那些競選，現在，那並沒有涵蓋全國，但是

Voters have usually preferred the alternative when offered.

選民們通常在有選擇時會偏好另一方。

So it's actually, I gotta tell you, pretty remarkable that Trump and his allies have spun a long running mediocre electoral hand into claims of this mass realignment and that tech and business elites seem to perceive and fear that the there might be a MAGA permanent majority, that after Trump's lame duck term, which is about three years left, they would still have to contend with all of this, rather than the measurable reality, which is that Donald Trump has been and remains a largely unpopular leader, now an unpopular lame duck president.

所以，我必須告訴你，川普和他的盟友們將一場長期平庸的選舉表現，包裝成大規模政治板塊重組的說法，而且科技和商業精英似乎認為並害怕可能會出現一個永久的MAGA多數，在川普的跛腳鴨任期結束後，還有大約三年時間，他們仍然必須應對這一切，而不是實際的衡量結果，那就是唐納·川普一直以來並且仍然是一位不受歡迎的領導人，現在是一位不受歡迎的跛腳鴨總統。

And some of his supporters might have gotten kind of high on their own supply, because you can judge for yourself.

而且他的一些支持者可能有點太高估自己了，因為你可以自己判斷。

They did seem almost genuinely emotionally shocked that the numbers I just showed you, which are long running, led to their expected result, the 2025 rout, when it was entirely in line with this long, unpopular Trump track record.

他們似乎真的情緒上感到震驚，因為我剛才給你們看的那些數字，這些長期的數據，導致了他們預期的結果，也就是2025年的慘敗，而這完全符合川普長期以來不受歡迎的紀錄。

Last night was a total and complete disaster.

The results in New Jersey were disastrous.