Name: 泰國大選結果難產？結果出爐但沒有明顯贏家！| DW 新聞 (Polls close in Thailand with no clear winner in sight | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-02-08T17:06:31.000Z
Duration: 8 min 52 s

Polls are now closed in Thailand's election and no party is expected to win.

泰國的選情已經結束，預計沒有任何政黨會贏。

Sunday's snap election was set off by the Prime Minister Anutin Chandvirakul after his minority conservative government was threatened with a no confidence vote.

現任總理 Anutin Chandvirakul 在他的少數保守派政府面臨不信任投票的威脅後，發動了週日的提前選舉。

基礎被動語態

He is facing stiff competition from Thailand's progressive movement, including the leader of the People's Party which was blocked from taking power after coming out ahead in the last election.

他正與泰國的進步運動展開激烈競爭，包括在上次選舉中領先卻被阻止掌權的人民黨領袖。

The party is vowing to reform the military and judiciary.

該政黨誓言要改革軍方和司法。

For more, let's cross over to DW's Asia Pacific Bureau chief Georg Mattes in Bangkok.

更多消息，我們連線到曼谷的 DW 亞太區局長 Georg Mattes。

As you can see, polls have closed at 5pm local time and the counting is now in full swing.

正如你所見，投票已於當地時間下午五點結束，計票工作正在全面展開。

Right behind me you see the general election and on the right side you see the constitutional referendum that is being counted.

在我右邊，你看到的是全國大選，右側則是正在計票的憲法公投。

And the first results we have coming in is that the People's Party, as expected one can say, is in a lead.

而我們收到的初步結果顯示，人民黨如預期般處於領先。

不過這還不是一個穩定的領先。

And second runner up is Bum Chai Thai, the party of the current Prime Minister in Thailand.

第二名是泰自豪黨，也就是泰國現任總理所屬的政黨。

So it's a race between those two and will be really interesting to see how the other parties perform because, because it's unexpected that either of the two will reach the 250 seats needed to appoint the next prime minister.

所以這場選戰將會非常精彩，看其他政黨的表現如何，因為預期這兩黨都不會達到任命下一任總理所需的 250 席次。

So they will need to form a coalition most likely, that is.

所以他們很可能需要組建聯合政府。

And it will be interesting how the potential coalition partners like the Pir Thai Party for instance, are performing.

而像泰國革新黨這樣的潛在聯合政府夥伴的表現如何，也會很有趣。

Pure Thai could team up with the People's Party for instance.

例如，泰國革新黨可能會與人民黨合作。

Now Gab, we know that Thailand has been in a kind of political turmoil now for years.

現在，Gab，我們知道泰國已經陷入了多年的政治動盪。

Can you just talk us through briefly and what's the mood among voters?

你能簡單跟我們談談選民的心情嗎？

I mean turbulent times in the past three years.

我是指過去三年動盪不安的時期。

You saw the predecessor of the People's Party, the so called Move Forward Party, winning the last election in a landslide and then being blocked from power by procedural processes, by constitutional courts.

你知道人民黨的前身，也就是所謂的「前進黨」，在上次選舉中以壓倒性勝利，卻被程序和憲法法院阻止執政。

We've seen two prime ministers de installed in legal, judicial ways, not by the voter, but.

我們看到兩位總理透過法律和司法途徑被罷免，並非由選民決定，而是。

And so this clearly has resonated with voters across Thailand in a feeling that their voice has not been heard.

這顯然引起了泰國各地選民的共鳴，讓他們覺得自己的聲音沒有被聽見。

And so that is why this time round everybody's taking a very close look at how this race is playing out.

所以這次大家都在密切關注這場選戰的發展。

And what role does the border dispute with Cambodia play in this election?

還有跟高棉的邊界爭議在這場選舉中扮演什麼角色？

我認為扮演了相當重要的角色。

Clearly it was in the favor of conservative pro military parties that capitalized on this ongoing conflict.

這顯然對保守派軍方政黨有利，他們利用了這場持續的衝突。

The nationalism in Thailand is sky high as we speak.

我們現在說話的時候，泰國的民族主義高漲。

And other parties like the People's party, for instance, promoted that a resolution needs to be found for this conflict because after all, it's a very expensive conflict and it would fall into the hands of whoever gets into the seat of power.

而像人民黨這樣的其他政黨，則主張需要為這場衝突找到解決方案，畢竟這是一場非常昂貴的衝突，而且會落入任何掌權者手中。

Just briefly, Georg, voters are also deciding on a constitutional referendum aimed at strengthening popular power.

簡短來說，Georg，選民也在決定一項旨在加強民權的憲法公投。

If the answer is yes, the new parliament, they will have to hammer out a new text.

如果答案是肯定的，新國會就必須擬定一份新文本。

And this goes to the core of the issue of institutions like the Constitutional Court meddling with with politics in Thailand.

這觸及了像憲法法院幹預泰國政治這樣的制度核心問題。

If it's a yes, it's likely that these institutions that are mainly representing the Thai establishment will lose power in this country.

如果是肯定的，那麼這些主要代表泰國建制派的機構，很可能會在這個國家失去權力。

Georg Mattis, the DW Asia Pacific Bureau chief.

Georg, from Bangkok there, thank you so very much for that.

Georg，謝謝你從曼谷帶來這麼多資訊。

Let's get some more analysis now with Dr. Janjira Sombad Poon Siri.

接下來我們請 Janjira Sombad Poon Siri 博士來為我們做進一步分析。

She is a research fellow at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies.

她是德國全球與區域研究學院的研究員。

Janjira 博士，很高興妳能加入我們。

So what are you expecting from today's results?

所以妳預期今天的結果會是如何呢？

I'm looking at real time result right now and it's not looking as I expected earlier that the People's Party could win though with a narrow gap.

我現在正在看即時結果，這和我先前預期的，人民黨可能會以些微差距獲勝不太一樣。

Right now the Thai party, the, the ruling party at the moment is leading.

目前泰國的執政黨，也就是泰自豪黨，暫時處於領先。

所以，任何事情都有可能發生。

I think it could be either it would win, we have to wait because so far the votes, only almost 2% of the votes have been counted or People's Party could win, but

我認為可能是會贏，我們必須再等等，因為到目前為止，只有大約 2% 的選票被計票，或者人民黨可能會贏，但是

it would be a very, very, very narrow gap.

那會是一個非常、非常、非常狹窄的差距。

Now even if the People's Party was to win, they won the most seats in the 2023 election, but

所以，即使人民黨贏了，他們在 2023 年的選舉中贏得了最多席次，但是

its leader was still blocked from becoming Prime Minister by the Senate.

參議院仍然阻止了他們的領袖成為總理。

Do explain to us please, why do elections have such limits in Thailand?

請跟我們解釋一下，為什麼泰國的選舉會有這樣的限制？

I mean there are elites that are nationally elected in Thailand.

我的意思是，泰國有全國選出的精英。

These operate within the military, the powers and other so called independent bodies.

他們在軍方、權力機構和其他所謂的獨立機構中運作。

And these are the establishment who want to uphold the status quo.

而這些就是想要維持現狀的建制派。

But they still have to coexist with an electoral process which is something that the international community expects to see from Thailand.

但他們仍然必須與選舉制度共存，這也是國際社會對泰國的期望。

So the way in which they coexist with elections is to co opt these elections by allowing the most voted party to win but not allowing them to govern or form a government.

所以他們與選舉共存的方式，就是透過操縱這些選舉，讓得票最多的政黨獲勝，但不允許他們執政或組建政府。

And could something similar happen this time as well?

而這次會不會也發生類似的事情？

I mean if we, if we're lucky and the People's Party wins the election, it could be that number one, they cannot form the coalition because they need to get at least 150 seats in the parliament and they, I don't think they would have that number or they managed to form the coalition.

我的意思是，如果我們幸運的話，人民黨贏得了選舉，但他們可能無法組建聯盟，因為他們需要在議會中獲得至少150個席位，我認為他們不會有這麼多席位，或者他們設法組建了聯盟。

But the Constitutional Court as always, will find something against them.

但憲法法院一如既往地會找到對他們不利的理由。

Some allegations would emerge and that would lead to the, the, the sort of the, the banning of the Prime Minister, the dismissal of the Prime Minister and eventually the dissolution of the party.

會出現一些指控，這將導致總理被禁、總理被解職，最終政黨被解散。

What about other influences, outside influences like for example the war with Cambodia.

那其他外部影響呢？例如與高棉的戰爭。

I think the reason why Hungary is leading at the moment is because the party tries to represent, you know, ideological, sorry, nationalistic ideology.

我認為匈牙利目前處於領先地位的原因是，該政黨試圖代表，你知道的，意識形態，抱歉，民族主義意識形態。

So basically this is part of that policy package and they want to be the national savior for Thai people, someone who safeguard the Thai territory.

所以基本上這是他們政策組合的一部分，他們想成為泰國人民的國家救星，一個捍衛泰國領土的人。

And a lot of Thais have bought into that.

And just briefly if you would, what is all of this telling us about the actual state of Thai democracy?

那能不能請你簡單講一下，這一切告訴了我們泰國民主的實際狀況是什麼？

I mean, if I am to use an academic word, that would be what we call a hybrid regime.

嗯，如果我要用一個學術的詞，那就是我們所說的混合政體。

This is a political system that as I said co ops an election and seemingly embraces a couple of democratic principles.

這是一個政治體系，就像我說的，它利用了選舉，並且看似擁抱了一些民主原則。

But in reality election is not free or fair and repression of dissidents is part of the norm.

但實際上，選舉並不自由或公平，壓制異議人士是常態的一部分。

So it is not a full on form of dictatorship we experienced between 14, 2014 and 2019.

所以這不是我們在 2014 年到 2019 年間經歷的那種全面獨裁。

But certainly we have to end it at this point for time reasons.

但當然，因為時間的關係，我們必須在這裡結束。

You're up to date however, and you're watching dw, thanks for being with us.

不過你已經跟上最新消息了，正在收看 DW，謝謝你的陪伴。