Name: 微觀經濟學：負擔能力壓力將持續存在 | 路透社 (Macro Matters: 'Affordability stress' to persist | REUTERS)
Uploaded: 2026-01-22T17:22:27.000Z
Duration: 5 min 33 s

進階被動語態

The latest tariff threat has been lifted.

This is macro matters and we're talking about tariffs.

這是總體經濟議題，我們在談論關稅。

Markets exhaled after President Trump unveiled a framework to end the Greenland standoff.

川普總統公佈了結束格陵蘭對峙的架構後，市場鬆了一口氣。

But investors are left with a familiar question.

但投資者心中又浮現了一個熟悉的問題。

The immediate risk may have faded, but the uncertainty hasn't.

立即風險或許消退了，但不確定性並沒有。

And with trade policy still weaponised and old targets like the Fed never far from view, markets are once again reminded that under Trump, no deal is ever truly final.

貿易政策仍然被武器化，而聯準會這些舊目標也從未遠離，市場再次被提醒，在川普任內，沒有協議是最終的。

Gregory Dacko is chief economist at EY Parthenon.

Gregory Dacko 是 EY Parthenon 的首席經濟學家。

So Gregory, the immediate threat of an all out trade war with the EU has been de escalated.

所以 Gregory，與歐盟全面貿易戰的立即威脅已經緩和了。

But how damaging is persistent trade uncertainty to business sentiment even if tariffs aren't actually imposed?

但是，持續的貿易不確定性對企業情緒有多大的損害，即使關稅實際上並未實施？

Yeah, I think the combination of still elevated tariffs imposed by the US on the rest of the world, along with the trade policy uncertainty are detrimental to business activity.

是的，我認為美國對世界其他地區實施的關稅仍然很高，加上貿易政策的不確定性，對企業活動都有損害。

We've seen essentially that the increase in the US average tariff rate from 2 and a half percent at the end of 2024 to around 16 and a half percent at the end Of 2025 has hurt economic activity around the world.

我們基本上看到，美國平均關稅稅率從 2024 年底的 2.5% 上升到 2025 年底的約 16.5%，這損害了全球的經濟活動。

We continue to see policy uncertainty being a key disruptor to business investment.

我們持續看到政策不確定性是企業投資的關鍵幹擾因素。

And let's not forget that there is still a pass through of higher tariffs onto consumer prices, which is eroding consumer spending power.

而且別忘了，更高的關稅仍然會轉嫁到消費者價格上，這正在侵蝕消費者的購買力。

So all of these factors are still likely to weigh notwithstanding the ongoing uncertainty and volatility around trade policy.

是以，儘管貿易政策持續存在不確定性和波動性，但所有這些因素仍然可能會造成影響。

Well, the Supreme Court is heading into a four week recess without ruling on the legality of tariffs.

最高法院將進入為期四周的休庭期，但尚未就關稅的合法性做出裁決。

Does a delayed decision increase the economic risk, particularly if the Trump ruling doesn't actually go his way?

延遲的決定是否會增加經濟風險，特別是如果川普的裁決實際上對他不利的話？

Well, I think generally speaking we still have an environment in which businesses are adapting to uncertainty being the new normal.

我認為總體而言，我們仍然處於一個企業正在適應不確定性成為新常態的環境中。

The ruling on the legality of using emergency powers to impose tariffs is still up in the air.

關於動用緊急權力課徵關稅的合法性裁決，仍然懸而未決。

And that ruling would affect the average tariff rate.

而這項裁決將會影響平均關稅稅率。

It could potentially lower the US average tariff rate from 16.5% down to 9%, which would offset part of the drag that we've been seeing on economic activity.

這可能會讓美國的平均關稅稅率從 16.5% 降至 9%，這將抵銷我們在經濟活動中所看到的阻力。

But let's not forget the administration also has other options to impose tariffs should these emergency powers tariffs be ruled out, including section 122 which allows for 15% tariffs and to be imposed for 150 days.

但我們別忘了，如果這些緊急權力關稅被判決無效，政府還有其他選項可以課徵關稅，包括第 122 條款，允許課徵 15% 的關稅，為期 150 天。

We think that would be the course that the administration would follow should these tariffs be ruled out.

我們認為，如果這些關稅被判決無效，政府就會採取這個做法。

Most economists believe that inflation is largely under control.

大多數經濟學家認為通膨大致上已經受到控制。

But recent research suggests that American consumers still bear almost all the cost of the tariffs.

但近期的研究顯示，美國消費者仍然幾乎承擔了所有關稅的成本。

Could we see a renewed uptick in inflation Pressures?

我們是否會看到通膨壓力重新抬頭？

Yeah, I think we've seen a gradual and uneven pass through of tariffs onto consumer prices.

是的，我認為我們已經看到關稅逐漸且不均勻地轉嫁到消費者價格上。

Businesses have been trying to compress their margins in an effort to limit their pass through to consumers.

企業一直試圖壓縮利潤，以限制轉嫁給消費者的部分。

But there is really a limit as to how long this can go on for.

但這真的有極限，不知道還能持續多久。

And we expect to see ongoing tariff pressures pressuring up consumer price inflation in the US towards 3%.

我們預計持續的關稅壓力會將美國的消費者物價通膨推升至 3%。

We think 3% will likely be the range for the first half of 2026 when it comes to inflation.

我認為 2026 年上半年，通膨的範圍很可能落在 3% 左右。

With inflation only gradually fading back towards 2.5% by the end of the year, this will continue to create affordability stress for many households across the US and limiting their spending power as we navigate through the year.

到了年底，通膨只會緩慢消退至 2.5%，這將持續對許多美國家庭造成負擔壓力，並限制他們的消費能力，讓我們一起走過這一年。

Well, the latest revised data showed that the US Economy grew slightly faster in the third quarter.

嗯，最新的修正數據顯示，美國經濟在第三季成長略快。

And Trump as well saying that the US Is the hottest economy in the world.

川普也說美國是全球最熱絡的經濟體。

Do you think that this pace of growth is sustainable?

你認為這樣的成長步調能持續嗎？

Well, I think what we're seeing when we look underneath the surface is an economy in the US that is still quite robust.

嗯，我認為當我們深入探究時，看到的美國經濟仍然相當強勁。

We're seeing growth trending around 2 1/2 percent.

我們看到成長趨勢大約在 2.5%。

When you look at the year over year pace as of the third quarter of this year, the narrow foundation to growth is something that we have to be very careful about.

當你看看今年第三季的年增率時，這種狹窄的成長基礎是我們必須非常小心的。

We're currently seeing a US Economy supported by three A pillars, affluent consumers, AI investment and after price appreciation.

我們現在看到美國經濟是由三大支柱支撐著：富裕的消費者、AI 投資以及房價上漲。

They are forming a virtuous cycle right now.

它們現在正在形成一個良性循環。

But there are risks that if any one of these pillars start to become more fragile, we could see a much slower US economy over the course of the next 12 to 24 months.

但存在風險，如果其中任何一個支柱開始變得更加脆弱，我們可能會在未來 12 到 24 個月內看到美國經濟大幅放緩。

Well, Trump's search for a new Fed chair is becoming a hunt for an elusive unicorn candidates as Blue Black from his attacks on the central bank complicates the decision.

嗯，川普尋找新的聯準會主席，正演變成一場尋找難尋的獨角獸候選人的狩獵，因為他對央行的攻擊讓這個決定變得複雜。

How does this tension play out for the path of easing this year?

這種緊張關係會如何影響今年的寬鬆路徑？

Well, I think generally speaking, the Fed has an unusually complicated landscape to navigate, including political pressure from the administration and an economic environment that is difficult to read.

嗯，我認為總體來說，聯準會面臨著一個異常複雜的局面需要應對，包括來自政府的政治壓力以及一個難以捉摸的經濟環境。

With a jobless expansion but no significant increase in the unemployment rate, we think the Fed will still proceed with about 50 basis points of easing over the course of 2026.

在就業擴張但失業率沒有顯著增加的情況下，我們認為聯準會仍將在 2026 年進行約 50 個基點的寬鬆。

But the first rate cut is unlikely to come before mid year this year.

但首次降息不太可能在今年年中之前出現。

Finally, Gregory Ray Dalio says that global investors, especially central banks, are diversifying away from U.S. assets.

最後，Ray Dalio 表示，全球投資者，特別是各國央行，正在將資金從美國資產分散開來。

Do you see this trend emerging and what would that mean for the US Economy?

你認為這種趨勢正在出現嗎？這對美國經濟意味著什麼？

我認為這是一個重要的限定條件。

We are seeing diversification out of US Dollar denominated asset holdings.

我們確實看到資金正從以美元計價的資產持有中分散開來。

But but that does not mean that the US Dollar is losing its reserve currency status.

但這並不代表美元正在失去其儲備貨幣的地位。

What we are seeing is central bank institutional investors and some retail investors favoring commodities, favoring gold and silver as a hedge against just pure US dollar denominated asset holdings.

我們看到的是，央行機構投資者和一些散戶投資者，為了對沖純粹以美元計價的資產持有，而偏好商品、偏好黃金和白銀。

That does not mean again that the US is about to lose its reserve currency status.

這同樣不代表美國即將失去其儲備貨幣的地位。

That was Gregory Tacko from EY Parthenon.

以上是來自 EY Parthenon 的 Gregory Tacko。

Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com.

別忘了，你可以在 Reuters.com 上觀看更多影片。