Name: 伊朗現在抗議平息後會發生什麼？| DW 新聞 (What will happen in Iran now that protests have died down? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-01-17T13:44:56.000Z
Duration: 8 min 14 s

We're now getting a clearer sense of what's been happening in Iran since widespread protests began there.

我們現在對伊朗自從大規模抗議開始以來發生的事情，有更清楚的瞭解了。

Based group Human rights activists in Iran says it has confirmed that over 3,000 people have been killed during the first 20 days of nationwide demonstrations against the regime.

為基地的人權活動家表示，他們已證實，在全國性示威反對該政權的最初20天裡，已有超過3000人喪生。

Over 2,000 more have been seriously injured and the number of protesters arrested have has risen to over 22,000.

另有超過2000人重傷，被捕的抗議者人數已上升至超過22,000人。

Though a government crackdown has quelled the demonstration in recent days, around the world, people have taken to the streets in solidarity with the protesters.

雖然政府鎮壓在最近幾天平息了示威活動，但世界各地的人們都走上街頭，聲援抗議者。

Meanwhile, Iranians living here in Germany remain very concerned about the well being of their loved ones.

同時，居住在德國的伊朗人仍然非常擔心他們的親屬的安危。

This mullah regime is no longer legitimate.

Like many Iranians around the world, ATI is following developments in Iran with hope.

和世界上許多伊朗人一樣，ATI正滿懷希望地關注著伊朗的發展。

It's like a part of me is burning, it's on fire, it's being murdered and I can't do anything but watch.

感覺我的一部分在燃燒，它著火了，它正在被謀殺，而我卻無能為力，只能看著。

ATI is struggling to stay up to date due to the regime's communications blackout.

ATI 因為政權的通訊封鎖，很難獲得最新消息。

It's been days since she's heard from her friends and relatives in Iran.

她已經好多天沒聽到在伊朗的朋友和親屬的消息了。

It goes beep beep beep and then there's no connection.

它發出嗶嗶嗶的聲音，然後就斷線了。

有消息傳來時，都不是好消息。

There are now even armed soldiers on the streets of Tehran.

現在德黑蘭的街上甚至出現了武裝阿兵哥。

Cologne based chemist Mojdin Nourzad fled political persecution in Iran more than 40 years ago in the early days of the mullah's regime.

來自科隆的化學家 Mojdin Nourzad 在穆拉政權初期，四十多年前就逃離了伊朗的政治迫害。

She too is horrified by what's happening at home.

她對國內發生的事也感到非常震驚。

When I see the young people, the brave people on the streets, of course I worry deeply for them.

當我看到年輕人、勇敢的人們走上街頭，我當然非常擔心他們。

他們值得擁有一個自由的社會。

These are days of despair for Iranians around the world, but also of hope.

這對全世界的伊朗人來說，是絕望的日子，但也是充滿希望的日子。

The last communication I received from my best friend who was getting ready to head out onto the street and messaged me before he left, said ATI, we can do it.

我收到的最後一條訊息，來自我最好的朋友，他正準備走上街頭，離開前傳訊息給我說：「ATI，我們做得到。」

And for more, we're now joined by Fawaz Girges, a professor for international relations at the London School of Economics and an expert on the Middle East.

更多內容，我們現在請到倫敦政治經濟學院國際關係教授、中東專家 Fawaz Girges。

The number bears repeating if you believe what the U.

如果您相信美國在伊朗的人權活動家所說的話，這個數字值得一再強調。

S. Based human rights activists in Iran are saying.

據說自從抗議活動開始以來，已有三千人死亡。

I mean it's one of the bloodiest confrontations between the government and the anti government protesters.

我是說，這是政府和反政府示威者之間最血腥的對峙之一。

Also, we need to remind our viewers more than 100 security officers were killed.

另外，我們也要提醒觀眾，有超過一百名安全人員喪生。

So this was really a very, very bloody confrontation.

所以這真的是一場非常、非常血腥的對峙。

And all the reports that we have coming out from Iran is that the Security forces are fully deployed not only in Tehran, but

我們從伊朗收到的所有報導都指出，安全部隊不僅在德黑蘭，

So yes, it's very bloody, it's very sad, very tragic.

所以是的，這很血腥，很令人難過，很悲慘。

And it seems to me that the situation continues to basically be extremely, extremely dangerous for anti government protesters.

在我來看，反政府示威者的處境似乎仍然非常、非常危險。

According to media reports, the protests in Tehran have now died down.

根據媒體報導，德黑蘭的抗議活動已經平息。

Does this mean the regime has successfully stopped dissent?

這是否意味著這個政權已經成功地壓制了異議？

Well, I think all the evidence that we have shows that the protesters have either receded or stopped since Monday because of the clampdown by the authorities.

嗯，我認為我們手邊所有的證據都顯示，由於當局的鎮壓，抗議者從週一以來已經退卻或停止了。

And your numbers, I mean, the 3,000 anti protesters killed tell you a great deal about the brutality of the suppression of the protesters.

而你提到的數字，我指的是，那三千名被殺的反政府示威者，充分說明瞭鎮壓抗議者的殘酷程度。

But my take on it is that the crisis has been postponed as opposed to really being structurally resolved because the protesters key demands, which is really to improve basic living standards and less government intervention in their lives, have not been addressed.

但我認為，這場危機只是被延後了，而不是真正從結構上解決了，因為抗議者們的關鍵訴求，也就是改善基本生活水準、減少政府幹預他們的生活，都還沒有得到解決。

And I doubted very much whether the Iranian government has the means to basically address the economic and social grievances of the protesters because of the sanctions.

而且我非常懷疑伊朗政府是否有能力解決抗議者的經濟和社會不滿，因為受到制裁的影響。

The American and European sanctions have broken the backbone of the Iranian economies and of course, systemic corruption and mismanagement on the part of the Iranian authorities as well.

美國和歐洲的制裁已經擊垮了伊朗經濟的骨幹，當然，還有伊朗當局系統性的腐敗和管理不善。

The US Is deploying an aircraft carrier to the region.

美國正向該區域部署一艘航空母艦。

At the same time, President Donald Trump has seemingly backed down from his threats to strike Iran.

同時，唐納·川普總統似乎已經退縮了他先前威脅要打擊伊朗的言論。

Well, you're asking a very difficult question because President Trump is very unpredictable.

嗯，你問了一個非常難的問題，因為川普總統非常難以預測。

He says one thing and that's another thing.

That's what he said in June, last June, when he said Iran has two weeks to respond to his demands.

那是他去年六月說的，當時他說伊朗有兩週時間回應他的要求。

And then 24 hours later, he carried out a devastating attack against Iranians and Iranian nuclear facilities.

然後在 24 小時後，他對伊朗人和伊朗的核設施發動了毀滅性的攻擊。

My take on it is that the Americans are deploying more forces, more naval assets to the region.

我的解讀是，美國正在向該區域部署更多軍力、更多海軍資產。

They are positioning themselves and they're using the threat of attacks against Iran as leverage against the regime.

他們正在部署自己，並利用對伊朗發動攻擊的威脅作為對抗政權的籌碼。

But at the end of the day, the Americans have limited options.

There is no alternative in Iran to really replace the government at this particular stage because the regime is deeply entrenched.

在這個特定階段，伊朗沒有真正的替代政府，因為這個政權根深蒂固。

And at the end of the day, again, America's regional allies, particularly the Arab states, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Egypt, have basically impressed on President Trump the need not to really trigger another major crisis that could have really spill over effects into the entire region, not just between the United States and Iran.

而且說到底，美國的區域盟友，特別是阿拉伯國家，像是沙烏地阿拉伯、阿曼、卡達和埃及，基本上已經向川普總統強調，不需要真的引發另一場可能對整個區域產生真正溢出效應的重大危機，而不僅僅是美國和伊朗之間。

Iran has been seen by many of its neighbors as one of the primary threats to security in the Middle East.

伊朗被許多鄰國視為中東安全的主要威脅之一。

What impact do you think the unrest in Iran will have on the stability of the region?

你認為伊朗的動盪會對該區域的穩定產生什麼影響？

Let me give your viewers a bit of context.

讓我為您的觀眾提供一些背景資訊。

Even though most of Iran's Arab allies really don't care for the Islamic Republic in Iran, I think the situation that has been a rapprochement between Iran and its regional allies in the past few years and the Arab state, particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Oman and Kuwait, they're very concerned that any kind of instability or civil war or even a major clash between the United States and Iran could have spillover effects into their own countries, could really divert their domestic agenda, which is really based on economic diversification and stability.

雖然伊朗的大部分阿拉伯盟友其實不太喜歡伊朗的伊斯蘭共和國，但我認為，過去幾年伊朗與其區域盟友，特別是沙烏地阿拉伯、卡達、阿曼和科威特等阿拉伯國家之間出現了緩和關係，而這些國家非常擔心任何不穩定、內戰，甚至是美國與伊朗之間的大規模衝突，都可能對他們自己的國家產生溢出效應，並真正轉移他們以經濟多元化和穩定為基礎的國內議程。

And also for the Iranian regimes to be toppled by social protest could send the wrong signal to other states in the region.

而且，伊朗政權被社會抗議推翻，也可能向該區域的其他國家發出錯誤的訊號。

And that's why they have been impressing on President Trump the need not to escalate.

這就是為什麼他們一直向川普總統強調，不需要升高局勢。

But at the end of the day, President Trump does not listen to anyone else.

但說到底，川普總統根本不聽任何人的。

Probably the most powerful and influential person who influences President Trump is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

可能影響川普總統最有力、最有影響力的人是以色列總理班傑明·納坦雅胡。

And Benjamin Netanyahu wants the United States to carry out a major attack, and

而班傑明·納坦雅胡希望美國發動重大攻擊，而且

they want both Trump and Netanyahu regime change in Tehran.

他們希望川普和納坦雅胡在德黑蘭實現政權更迭。

That is Faris Gagas, a professor for international relations at the London School of Economics and an expert on the Middle East.

這就是倫敦政治經濟學院國際關係教授、中東專家 Faris Gagas。