Name: 中國貿易順差為何不斷擴大？ (Why China’s Trade Surplus Just Keeps Growing)
Uploaded: 2026-01-16T04:35:00.000Z
Duration: 9 min 12 s

Earlier this week, China released new data suggesting that after a slight slowdown in October, China's exports returned to growth in November, taking China's total trade surplus this year to over $1 trillion.

本週稍早，中國公佈了新的數據，顯示在十月份略有放緩後，中國的出口在十一月恢復增長，今年中國的貿易順差總額超過了 1 兆美元。

It's already the largest trade surplus in recorded history and implies that China's trade surplus has grown 20 fold in the past 20 years, from about $50 billion in 2004.

這已經是有記載以來最大的貿易順差，意味著中國的貿易順差在過去 20 年裡增長了 20 倍，從 2004 年的約 500 億美元。

Moreover, this mind boggling figure might actually be an underestimate.

此外，這個令人難以置信的數字可能還被低估了。

Analysis of Chinese data by economist Brad Sester at the Council on Foreign Relations suggests that the real surplus is nearer $1.2 trillion.

外交關係協會經濟學家 Brad Sester 對中國數據的分析顯示，實際的順差接近 1.2 兆美元。

So in this video, we're going to explain how this surplus actually happened, why Trump's tariffs haven't really affected it, and

所以在這個影片裡，我們要來解釋這個順差是怎麼發生的，為什麼川普的關稅其實沒有影響到它，以及

Who is the most influential person in the world.

Each year we ask the audience to rank their top 10 most influential people across politics, media, culture and activism.

每年我們都會請觀眾對政治、媒體、文化和社會運動領域中，他們認為最有影響力的前十名人物進行排名。

And now it's time for you to have your say.

Click the link in the description to cast your vote for our 2026 ranking.

點擊說明欄裡的連結，來投票選出我們 2026 年的排名。

So, to understand how China's trade surplus got so massive, we sort of need to answer two separate questions.

所以，要了解中國的貿易順差是怎麼變得這麼龐大的，我們其實需要回答兩個獨立的問題。

One, how come China exports so much stuff in the first place?

第一，中國一開始為什麼要出口這麼多東西？

And two, how come it imports less than it exports?

第二，為什麼它進口的會比出口的少？

那我們就先從第一個問題開始。

How come China exports so much stuff to the rest of the world?

中國為什麼要向世界其他地方出口這麼多東西？

Well, some of this is just a consequence of the fact that the Chinese economy is massive.

嗯，這其中有些只是因為中國經濟規模龐大這個事實所造成的結果。

China's GDP has risen from less than $1 trillion in the late 1990s to about $18 trillion today, averaging nearly 9% annual growth.

中國的國內生產總值從 1990 年代末期的不到 1 兆美元，成長到今天的約 18 兆美元，平均年成長率接近 9%。

A $1 trillion trade surplus might sound absurd to us, Brits and Europeans, who generally talk about billions rather than trillions, but

對我們這些英國人或歐洲人來說，一兆美元的貿易順差聽起來可能很離譜，因為我們通常講的是億而不是兆，但

becomes less absurd once you recognise the sheer size of the Chinese economy.

一旦你意識到中國經濟的規模有多大，這個數字就沒那麼離譜了。

This speaks to a common misconception about China's trade balance.

這點說出了關於中國貿易平衡的常見誤解。

Commentators often tout China's massive surpluses as proof that China's economy is uniquely unbalanced.

評論員常吹捧中國龐大的順差，證明中國經濟獨特地不平衡。

But relative to gdp, China's surpluses aren't actually that big.

但相對於國內生產總值，中國的順差其實沒那麼大。

For context, having peaked at around 10% of GDP in 2007.

作為參考，在 2007 年達到約國內生產總值 10% 的峰值。

For the past decade or so, China has run a trade surplus averaging about 3% of GDP, according to World bank data.

根據世界銀行數據，過去十年左右，中國的貿易順差平均約佔國內生產總值 3%。

This is obviously above the international average, but

below that of other chronic surplus countries like Japan and Germany, which have run surpluses averaging about 4 and 7% of GDP, respectively.

低於日本和德國等其他長期順差國家，它們的順差平均約佔國內生產總值 4% 和 7%。

Nonetheless, the size of the Chinese economy alone can't fully account for its dominance in global export markets.

儘管如此，光是中國經濟的規模，並不能完全解釋它在全球出口市場的主導地位。

It's also because Chinese industry is incredibly competitive Internationally, Chinese industrial workers are incredibly productive.

這也是因為中國工業在國際上極具競爭力，中國的工業工人極具生產力。

A study published last month found that in industries where output can be measured in physical terms, a Chinese worker produces two to three times as much output as an American one, despite being paid 80% less.

上個月發表的一項研究發現，在產出可以用實物衡量的產業中，中國工人的產出量是美國工人的兩到三倍，但薪資卻低了 80%。

This has helped China become the world's largest industrial exporter.

這幫助中國成為全球最大的工業出口國。

China accounts for about 20% of all manufacturing exports globally, up from barely 5% in 2001 and more than twice that of second place Germany.

中國佔全球製造業出口總額的約 20%，高於 2001 年的 5% 不到，而且是排名第二的德國的兩倍多。

According to an analysis by economist Richard Baldwin over at the Centre for Economic Policy Research.

根據經濟學家 Richard Baldwin 在經濟政策研究中心（Centre for Economic Policy Research）的分析。

China now accounts for something like 35% of total global manufacturing output, roughly quadruple what it was when China joined the World trade organisation in 2001, and

中國現在佔全球製造業總產出的約 35%，大約是 2001 年中國加入世界貿易組織時的四倍，而且

roughly the same as the next 10 countries combined.

大約等於接下來 10 個國家加起來的總和。

China is now the top source of imported goods for roughly two thirds of all countries worldwide, including the majority of countries in Africa, South America and Southeast Asia.

中國現在是全球約三分之二國家（包括非洲、南美洲和東南亞的大多數國家）的主要進口商品來源國。

Much of the recent growth in Chinese exports has been driven by high tech manufacturing like semiconductors and electric vehicles, which have grown particularly fast over the past year or so.

中國近期出口增長的大部分動力來自半導體和電動車等高科技製造業，這些產業在過去一年左右的增長尤其快速。

So that's why China exports so much stuff.

這就是為什麼中國出口這麼多東西。

It's both that China is just a massive economy, but

這既是因為中國經濟規模龐大，但

also also that its exports are internationally competitive, especially when it comes to manufacturing and industry.

也是因為它的出口在國際上極具競爭力，尤其是在製造業和工業方面。

How come China imports less than it exports?

After all, when China exports loads of stuff, it gets lots of foreign currency and exchange, which you'd then expect Chinese households and businesses to spend on an equivalent amount of imports, thus balancing the overall trade account.

畢竟，當中國出口大量商品時，會獲得很多外匯，你可能會預期中國家庭和企業會花費等量的進口商品，從而平衡整體的貿易帳戶。

Well, frustratingly, there's nothing no clear consensus among economists.

嗯，令人沮喪的是，經濟學家之間並沒有明確的共識。

But it's worth noting that for every trade surplus, you need an equivalent trade deficit.

但值得注意的是，每一次貿易順差，都需要有等量的貿易逆差。

After all, one country's export is another's import, which means the world's overall trade accounts must balance.

畢竟，一個國家的出口就是另一個國家的進口，這意味著全世界的貿易帳戶總體上必須平衡。

For decades, the US has run a massive trade deficit, essentially absorbing China's surpluses.

幾十年來，美國一直有巨額貿易逆差，基本上吸收了中國的順差。

This has given way to an ongoing debate amongst economists as to which country is primarily responsible for a trade imbalance.

這引發了經濟學家之間持續的爭論，關於哪個國家對貿易不平衡負有主要責任。

Some economists blame surplus countries like China, accusing them of doing stuff like devaluing their currency and underpaying workers so they can't afford as many imports.

一些經濟學家指責中國這樣的順差國家，指控他們透過貶值貨幣和低薪支付員工，讓他們買不起更多進口商品。

While other economists blame deficit countries like the us, accusing them of recurrent budget deficits and inflows of foreign money to cover the gaps between exports and imports, we think it's probably a bit of both.

不過，也有經濟學家指責美國這樣的逆差國家，說他們經常性的預算赤字和外國資金流入，來彌補進出口之間的差距，但我們認為，這可能兩者都有。

While Chinese workers have actually seen some pretty steep wage increases in recent years, and

雖然中國工人的薪資近年來其實有顯著的調漲，而且

the CCP have quietly taken steps to improve China's social safety net, it's nonetheless clear that China is actively devaluing the yuan, which makes China's exports extra competitive and reduces the amount of imports households and businesses can afford.

中國共產黨也悄悄採取措施來改善中國的社會安全網，但中國卻積極地讓人民幣貶值，這使得中國的出口更具競爭力，並減少了家庭和企業能負擔的進口量，這點仍然很明顯。

It's also true, however, that the Trump administration is running massive budget deficits while pressuring other countries to invest in the US and buy US Debt, which are essentially a means to finance America's trade deficits anyway.

不過，川普政府也確實正在擴大預算赤字，同時向其他國家施壓，要他們投資美國並購買美國國債，這基本上都是為了資助美國的貿易逆差。

This takes us on to the next part of this video.

這就帶我們進入這個影片的下一部分。

Why didn't Trump's tariffs reduce China's trade surplus?

為什麼川普的關稅沒有減少中國的貿易順差？

After all, the US has long been China's largest export market.

畢竟，美國長期以來一直是中國最大的出口市場。

How come whacking massive tariffs on Chinese goods hasn't led to a marked decline in China's exports and thus trade surplus?

為什麼對中國商品課徵巨額關稅，並沒有導致中國出口額，進而貿易順差明顯下降？

Well, at first glance, it looks like China has just been able to redirect its existing surplus to other destinations.

嗯，乍看之下，中國似乎只是成功地將現有的順差轉移到其他目的地。

While China's exports to the US have fallen, China's exports to other regions, including Europe and Southeast Asia, have surged.

雖然中國對美國的出口下降了，但中國對包括歐洲和東南亞在內的其他地區的出口卻大幅成長。

This has led many commentators to conclude that China just redirected goods that were originally going to America to consumer markets in Europe and Asia.

這讓許多評論員認為，中國只是把原本要賣到美國的貨物，轉賣到歐洲和亞洲的消費市場。

But while this is probably partly true, China is probably also using third countries for trans shipments.

但這或許只說對了一部分，中國也很可能利用第三國進行轉運。

In other words, exporting to America via some third country to take advantage of that third country's lower bilateral tariff rate.

也就是說，透過某些第三國出口到美國，來利用該國較低的雙邊關稅率。

This would explain why once you strip out pharmaceuticals and gold, which saw a massive surge in imports ahead of the tariffs, America's overall trade deficit is as big as ever.

這也解釋了為什麼一旦剔除關稅實施前大幅成長的藥品和黃金進口，美國的整體貿易逆差依然和以往一樣大。

While America's bilateral deficit with China has shrunk.

雖然美國對中國的雙邊逆差縮小了。

This just suggests China is rerouting exports via third countries.

這只是顯示中國正透過第三國重新導向出口。

This was a predictable consequence of Trump's insistence on bilateral tariffs.

這是川普堅持實施雙邊關稅所可預見的後果。

They're easy to get around because you can just reroute via some third country.

因為你可以透過某些第三國轉運，所以雙邊關稅很容易規避。

A universal tariff would thus probably have been more effective in reducing America's trade deficit, although even then we should say the economic data is a bit murky.

是以，普遍性的關稅或許能更有效地減少美國的貿易逆差，儘管如此，我們也該說經濟數據有點模糊不清。

As a final thing, commentators often argue that China's imbalances are ultimately unsustainable.

最後一點，評論員常說中國的貿易不平衡最終是不可持續的。

They're not what orthodox economics would predict, and they irritate China's trade partners, especially in Europe.

這不是傳統經濟學預測的結果，而且也讓中國的貿易夥伴，特別是歐洲，感到惱火。

But we should note that China's ability to find new export markets in the face of tariffs and and America's apparent inability to meaningfully reduce its overall trade deficit suggest that China's imbalances might persist longer than expected.

不過，我們應該注意到，面對關稅，中國找到了新的出口市場，而美國卻似乎無法有效減少其整體貿易逆差，這顯示中國的貿易不平衡可能會比預期持續更久。

Our magazine, Too Long, is now officially in stock with this latest issue focusing on the reshaping of the Middle East.

我們的雜誌《Too Long》最新一期現已正式上市，本期聚焦中東地區的重塑。

In it, we run through each country in the region to discuss how they're rewriting the next chapter of their story.

在這期內容中，我們將走訪該地區的各個國家，討論他們如何改寫自己的故事新篇章。

From Qatar's growing global influence who will govern New Gaza if Iran could dash for a nuke or or how Lebanon can disarm Hezbollah.

從卡達日益增長的全球影響力，到如果伊朗發展核武，誰將治理新加薩，或是黎巴嫩如何解除真主黨的武裝。

This is a region we know a lot of you are interested in, so this latest issue dives deep with our real thoughts on the next era of this often troubled region.

這是一個我們知道很多人都感興趣的地區，所以最新一期深入探討我們對這個經常飽受困擾地區下一個時代的真實看法。

Not only that, we also have sections focusing on uk, EU and global news, including our full rundown of some of the biggest elections which happened around the world over the last year.

不僅如此，我們還有聚焦英國、歐盟和全球新聞的專題，包括我們對去年全球各地一些重大選舉的完整回顧。

There's also our interview with YouTube's Money and Macro on how to fix the EU economy, the rise of the politician influencer, and

此外，還有我們與 YouTube 的 Money and Macro 頻道訪談，討論如何修復歐盟經濟、網紅政治人物的崛起，以及

Subscribers to too long automatically get 20% off every copy as long as they stay subscribed.

訂閱《Too Long》的訂戶，只要持續訂閱，每期雜誌都能自動享有八折優惠。

But as a special Christmas offer, you can get an additional 30% off your first issue if you use code December 25th at checkout.

不過，作為聖誕節的特別優惠，如果你在結帳時使用 December 25th 這個折扣碼，你的第一期雜誌還可以再打七折。