Name: 2026年值得關注的六大衝突！ (Six Conflicts to Watch in 2026)
Uploaded: 2026-01-07T14:01:32.000Z
Duration: 11 min 52 s

One of the most depressing global trends in recent years has been the persistent increase in the number of ongoing armed conflicts, with growing disregard for international law and human rights, an enormous spike in drone warfare, and

近年來，全球最令人沮喪的趨勢之一，就是持續不斷的武裝衝突，國際法和人權遭到日益嚴重的漠視，無人機戰爭急劇增加，

2026 is likely to see a continuation of this trend, leading to the deaths of tens of thousands more civilians.

2026 年很可能會延續這個趨勢，造成數萬名平民喪生。

So in this video we'll take you through some of the world's ongoing and emerging conflicts and how they might develop throughout 2026.

所以在這個影片裡，我們要帶大家看看世界上一些正在發生和新興的衝突，以及它們在 2026 年可能如何發展。

Who is the most influential person in the world?

Well, last year the TLDR audience ranked Donald Trump as number one, with these people all landing in the top 10.

嗯，去年 TLDR 的觀眾將唐納·川普列為第一名，而這些人也都進入了前十名。

Click the link in the description to cast your vote for our 2026 ranking.

點擊說明欄的連結，投下你對我們 2026 年排名的票。

The first and most recently inflamed conflict is between Thailand and Cambodia in early December, clashes broke out between Thai and Cambodian troops on the disputed border of Prea Vihar Province, one of several contested sites along the two countries shared 800km border.

第一個也是最近才爆發的衝突，是發生在泰國和高棉之間，十二月初，泰國和高棉軍隊在 Prea Vihar Province 有爭議的邊界爆發衝突，這是兩國共享的 800 公里邊界上幾個爭議地點之一。

The Thai military claimed that Cambodian soldiers had opened fire on a Thai engineering team repairing a road in Thailand's Sisek Province, while Cambodian authorities accused Thai soldiers of engaging in numerous provocative actions for many days.

泰國軍方聲稱，高棉阿兵哥朝正在泰國 Sisek Province 修路的一支泰國工程隊開槍，而高棉當局則指控泰國阿兵哥多日來採取了許多挑釁行動。

In the following days, at least half a million people fled the area as airstrikes and gunfire continued killing, killing 23 people.

接下來幾天，至少有五十萬人逃離該地區，空襲和槍擊持續不斷，造成23人死亡。

This recent escalation continued a series of clashes throughout 2025.

這次最近的衝突升級，延續了2025年以來的一系列對峙。

In May, a Cambodian soldier was killed by gunfire in the same border region, and

五月，一名高棉阿兵哥在同一邊境地區的槍擊中喪生，

in July, a multi day clash erupted, prompting Malaysia, the head of asean, and

七月，一場持續數日的衝突爆發，促使東南亞國家協會輪值主席國馬來西亞，

the us, to broker a ceasefire with an expanded peace agreement signed in October in the presence of US President Donald Trump.

以及美國介入調停，並在美國總統唐納·川普的見證下，於十月簽署了一份擴大的和平協議。

Political tensions have also risen between the two countries after a leaked phone call earlier this year between former Thai Prime Minister Petong Thanh Shinawatra and Cambod.

今年稍早，一份前泰國總理裴頓坦·西那瓦特拉與高棉官員的通話錄音外洩後，兩國的政治緊張局勢也隨之升高。

India's longtime former leader Hun Sen revealed Shinawatra, praising him while condemning her own Thai military commanders.

印度長期以來的領導人洪森透露了西那瓦特拉的談話，讚揚了她，同時譴責了她自己的泰國軍方指揮官。

This scandal brought down Petongthan's government and increased anti Cambodian sentiment in Thailand, with a majority of the Thai public now believing Thailand shouldn't be associated with Cambodia.

這起醜聞導致裴頓坦政府垮臺，並加劇了泰國國內的反高棉情緒，大多數泰國民眾現在認為泰國不應該與高棉有任何牽連。

Thailand's new Prime Minister Anutin Chand Vinakul has also taken a hard line on Cambodia and has ruled out any immediate negotiations suggesting this conflict could potentially flare up again in 2026.

泰國新任總理安努廷·昌威納庫也對高棉採取了強硬立場，並排除了任何立即的談判，這表明這場衝突有可能在2026年再次爆發。

The next conflict to keep an eye on is the US's military build up around Venezuela.

下一個值得關注的衝突是美國在委內瑞拉周邊的軍事集結。

Since late August, the US has deployed 15,000 troops and a dozen warships, as well as aircraft carriers, guided missile destroyers and helicopters to the southern Caribbean near the Venezuelan coast, while simultaneously building up the US military presence on Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

自八月下旬以來，美國已部署一萬五千名軍隊和十幾艘軍艦，以及航空母艦、飛彈驅逐艦和直升機到委內瑞拉海岸附近的南加勒比海，同時也在波多黎各和美屬維京群島增加美國軍事部署。

The US has claimed that this is about combating drug trafficking from Venezuela into the us, but

美國聲稱這是為了打擊從委內瑞拉流入美國的毒品交易，但

it's pretty clear that they also want to pressure Venezuelan Nicolas Maduro out of power.

很明顯，他們也想對委內瑞拉的馬杜羅總統施壓，讓他下臺。

Since September, the US has launched more than 20 strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats in international waters, killing at least 83 people.

自九月以來，美國已對國際水域中的疑似毒品運輸船發動了二十多次襲擊，造成至少八十三人死亡。

The most controversial of these took place on 2 September, when US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly ordered a double tap strike to kill survivors of an initial strike, which is broadly considered illegal under international law as an act of extrajudicial killing.

其中最具爭議的是九月二日，據報導美國國防部長皮特·赫格塞斯下令進行了「雙重打擊」，以殺死首次襲擊的倖存者，這在國際法上被廣泛認為是法外處決。

Trump has also repeatedly hinted at US strikes on Venezuelan territory in the near future, saying it's going to be starting on land pretty soon.

川普也一再暗示美國近期將對委內瑞拉領土發動襲擊，並表示很快就會在陸地上展開。

Moreover, in early December, the US military seized an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast, an act the Venezuelan government described as blatant theft and international piracy, and

此外，十二月初，美國軍方在委內瑞拉海岸附近扣押了一艘油輪，委內瑞拉政府將此行為描述為公然盜竊和國際海盜行為，

imposed sanctions on six more ships said to be carrying oil.

並對另外六艘據稱載有石油的船隻實施了制裁。

Venezuela accuses the US of wanting to gain control of the country's enormous oil reserves, the largest in the world.

委內瑞拉指控美國想控制該國龐大的石油儲量，這是世界上最大的石油儲量。

Given the continued build up, tensions look likely to continue into 2026, with direct military confrontation a real possibility.

鑑於持續的軍事集結，緊張局勢很可能持續到二零二六年，直接軍事對抗的可能性很高。

Moving to Europe now, where Russia's hybrid war has escalated in recent months, with analysts expecting further Russian sabotage attacks and subversion in 2026.

接著我們來看到歐洲，俄羅斯的混合戰近幾個月來不斷升級，分析人士預計 2026 年還會有更多俄羅斯的破壞和顛覆行動。

For context, in September, Russian drones flew into Polish and Romanian airspace, Russian fighter jets flew into Estonian airspace, and

作為背景，九月時，俄羅斯無人機飛入了波蘭和羅馬尼亞的領空，俄羅斯戰鬥機飛入了愛沙尼亞的領空，

suspected Russian drones were spotted near airports or military facilities in Denmark, Germany, Norway and Belgium.

並且在丹麥、德國、挪威和比利時的機場或軍事設施附近發現了疑似俄羅斯無人機。

In November, a Russian spy ship called the Yantar was suspected of mapping undersea cables between the UK and Norway and had shone lasers at RAF pilots tracking it from above, prompting the two countries to announce a new joint submarine hunting alliance in December.

十一月，一艘名為 Yantar 的俄羅斯間諜船被懷疑在英國和挪威之間繪製海底電纜圖，並用雷射照射追蹤它的英國皇家空軍飛行員，這促使兩國在十二月宣佈成立新的聯合潛艦獵捕聯盟。

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russia has ramped up its drone attacks on Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructure since the summer, and

同時，在烏克蘭，自夏季以來，俄羅斯加大了對烏克蘭平民和能源基礎設施的無人機襲擊，

Ukraine has also increased its own attacks on Russian oil facilities, including striking a target in the Caspian Sea for the first time this month.

而烏克蘭也增加了對俄羅斯石油設施的攻擊，包括本月首次襲擊了裡海的一個目標。

At the same time, the US's unequivocal turn away from Europe, marked by the Trump administration's recent national security strategy, which was well received in Russia, has renewed Europe's focus on defence readiness and deterrence.

與此同時，美國明確地轉向遠離歐洲，這體現在川普政府最近的國家安全戰略中，該戰略在俄羅斯受到好評，這促使歐洲重新關注國防準備和威懾。

France and Germany have both recently announced new military service schemes, and

法國和德國近期都宣佈了新的兵役計畫，

the UK armed forces minister also said this month that the UK was rapidly developing plans to to prepare the country for war.

英國武裝部隊部長本月也表示，英國正在迅速制定計畫，為國家戰爭做準備。

Moreover, NATO chief Mark Rutter controversially said earlier this month that Europe should prepare for the scale of war our grandparents and great grandparents endured, while a direct Russia Europe conflict still seems a distant prospect There has been a notable shift in rhetoric from European government officials in recent months, seemingly aimed at preparing their populations for war.

此外，北約祕書長馬克·魯特本月稍早時有爭議地表示，歐洲應該為我們的祖父母和曾祖父母所經歷的戰爭規模做好準備，儘管俄羅斯與歐洲之間的直接衝突似乎仍然遙遠。近幾個月來，歐洲政府官員的言論明顯轉變，似乎旨在為其民眾做好戰爭準備。

The US also wants Europe to replace its role in NATO by 2027, unless a peace deal can somehow be negotiated in the coming months, which feels unlikely given the clear gap between the Russian and Ukrainian positions.

美國也希望歐洲能在2027年前取代其在北約的角色，除非未來幾個月能透過某種方式協商出和平協議，但鑑於俄羅斯和烏克蘭立場的明顯差距，這似乎不太可能。

The Ukraine war looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future, with Europe taking more of the strain.

烏克蘭戰爭在可預見的未來很可能會持續下去，歐洲將承受更大的壓力。

In February, the Russia Ukraine war will enter its fifth year, and

到了二月，俄烏戰爭將進入第五年，

as the Economist notes on June 10, the fighting will have lasted longer than the First World War.

正如《經濟學人》在六月十日的報導指出，這場戰鬥將比第一次世界大戰持續更久。

Let's move to West Africa now, where for the past few years jihadist insurgencies have escalated across several countries in the Sahel region like Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, as well as spreading to coastal nations like Cote d' Ivoire and Nigeria.

接下來我們來看看西非，過去幾年來，薩赫勒地區的馬利、布吉納法索和尼日等國的聖戰分子叛亂活動不斷升級，並蔓延到象牙海岸和奈及利亞等沿海國家。

Current trends suggest that in 2026 militant activity will expand further along the southern borders of the Sahel countries into Benin, Togo, Ghana and Cote d'.

目前的趨勢顯示，到了2026年，武裝活動將進一步擴展到薩赫勒國家南部邊境，延伸至貝南、多哥、迦納和象牙海岸。

In the first 11 months of 2025, Benin saw 70% more fatalities compared to the same period in 2024.

在2025年前11個月，貝南的死亡人數比2024年同期增加了70%。

An jihadist attacks on security forces in western Mali and as well as kidnappings of foreign workers in Mali and Niger have also surged to record highs in 2025.

2025年，馬利西部針對安全部隊的聖戰分子襲擊以及在馬利和尼日綁架外籍工人事件也創下歷史新高。

Conflict analysis suggests that 2026 will see a further consolidation of a new front line in the Benin, Niger and Nigeria borderlands, which is gradually becoming an area of competition for various militant groups, including Islamic State's West African factions.

衝突分析顯示，2026年將在貝南、尼日和奈及利亞邊境地區出現新的戰線整合，這裡正逐漸成為包括伊斯蘭國西非分支在內的各種武裝團體的競爭區域。

This is a serious crisis that probably doesn't receive as much media coverage as it should.

這是一場嚴重的危機，媒體的關注度可能不如它應得的。

Persistent instability has stunted the economic development of one of the poorest regions in the world, undermined state institutions and created a transnational refugee crisis.

持續的不穩定阻礙了這個世界最貧窮地區之一的經濟發展，削弱了國家機構，並造成了跨國難民危機。

Moreover, since the US cut foreign aid in early 2025, humanitarian organisations and local NGOs operating in West Africa have faced severe funding shortfalls, further worsening the humanitarian situation.

此外，自美國於2025年初削減外援以來，在西非運營的人道組織和當地非政府組織面臨嚴重的資金短缺，進一步加劇了人道主義狀況。

Let's move a bit further south now to Sudan, where civil war will enter its third year in April 2026.

現在讓我們稍微往南移動到蘇丹，那裡的內戰將於2026年4月進入第三年。

The conflict, which has killed more than 150,000 people and internally displaced around 12 million, is being fought between the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary force allegedly backed by the uae, which grew out of the Arab Janjaweed militia, and

這場衝突已造成超過15萬人死亡，約1200萬人國內流離失所，衝突雙方是據稱得到阿拉伯詹賈維德民兵組織發展而來的準軍事部隊「快速支援部隊」，以及

the Sudanese Armed Forces, or saf, which is backed by Egypt and Turkey.

由埃及和土耳其支持的蘇丹武裝部隊，或稱SAF。

Sudan is now effectively split into two blocs governed by opposing sides.

蘇丹現在實際上已分裂成由對立雙方統治的兩個陣營。

In October, the rsf, which controls much of western Sudan and the Darfur region, captured the city of El Fha after an 18 month siege, while the SAF still currently controls the capital Khartoum and eastern regions.

10月，控制蘇丹西部和達爾富爾地區大部分地區的RSF在圍困18個月後，攻佔了埃爾法市，而SAF目前仍控制著首都喀土穆和東部地區。

It's increasingly under pressure in Central Sudan's Kordofan region, where RSF advances threaten vital supply routes linking Khartoum to Darfur.

在中蘇丹的科爾多凡地區，RSF的推進威脅著連接喀土穆與達爾富爾的重要補給線，該地區的壓力越來越大。

Next year, analysts expect the conflict to continue, with each side seeking to consolidate its gains and fight for territory in Kordofan despite a renewed effort by the so called Quad Group of the us, uae, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to negotiate a ceasefire.

明年，分析人士預計衝突將持續，儘管美國、阿聯酋、沙烏地阿拉伯和埃及組成的所謂「四方集團」為談判停火做出了新的努力，但雙方仍將尋求鞏固各自的戰果並爭奪科爾多凡地區的領土。

The final potential conflict to keep an eye on next year is Taiwan.

明年最後一個值得關注的潛在衝突是臺灣。

Despite the US's long standing policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan, Trump's return to office has heightened concerns among Taiwanese officials who worry that Trump might not intervene to defend the island in a potential conflict with China.

儘管美國長期以來對臺灣採取戰略模糊政策，但川普重返執政，讓臺灣官員們更加擔憂，他們擔心川普在與中國的潛在衝突中可能不會出兵防衛臺灣。

Chinese President Xi Jinping is believed to have set a deadline of 2027 for the Chinese military to be ready to inv invade Taiwan, and

中國國家主席習近平據信已設定2027年為中國軍隊準備好入侵臺灣的最後期限，而且

this month China deployed 100 warships across the east and South China Seas in its largest maritime show of force to date.

本月中國在東海和南海部署了100艘軍艦，是迄今為止最大規模的海上武力展示。

At the moment, analysts think a Chinese blockade of Taiwan is more likely than an invasion, which would be one of the most logistically and geographically difficult military operations ever attempted.

目前，分析人士認為中國封鎖臺灣的可能性比入侵更大，因為入侵將是史上最艱鉅的後勤和地理軍事行動之一。

But even a naval blockade would risk economic backlash through sanctions on China by the US or its allies.

但即使是海軍封鎖，也可能因為美國或其盟友對中國實施制裁而引發經濟反彈。

That said, America's so called China hawks are concerned that China is preparing for a potential conflict given its ongoing stockpiling of commodities like oil, gas and critical metals, although it's also possible that China is just stockpiling to ensure the security of its supply chains amid global trade uncertainty.

儘管如此，美國所謂的「中國鷹派」擔心中國正在為潛在衝突做準備，因為中國持續囤積石油、天然氣和關鍵金屬等商品，不過中國也可能只是在環球貿易不確定性下囤積商品，以確保其供應鏈安全。

Finally, we should end by acknowledging that there are also ongoing conflicts between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Congo and Rwanda in East Africa, and

最後，我們應該結束時提到，加薩的以色列與哈瑪斯、東非的剛果與盧安達之間，以及

India and Pakistan in Kashmir, as well as proxy conflicts in the Middle East, a civil war in Myanmar, and

喀什米爾的印度與巴基斯坦之間，還有中東的代理衝突、緬甸的內戰，以及

rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

衣索比亞與厄利垂亞之間日益緊張的局勢，也都在持續進行中。

Sadly, as the ICRC points out, armed conflict is now a defining feature of our time, with 2026 likely to see a continuation of localised conflicts across the globe and a widening gap between humanitarian need and provision.

不幸的是，正如紅十字國際委員會所指出的，武裝衝突已成為我們這個時代的標誌，2026年很可能會在全球各地持續發生局部衝突，人道需求與援助供應之間的差距也會擴大。

We're taking a break from regularly posting over the festive period, but

我們會在節慶期間暫停定期發文，但

if you did want more from TL doctor Then check out our magazine Too Long, which is also available as a digital edition so you can start reading instantly.

如果您還想看更多 TL doctor 的內容，可以看看我們的雜誌 Too Long，它也有數位版，讓您立刻開始閱讀。

Obviously the COVID story is called the New Middle east, but

顯然，COVID 的故事被稱為「新中東」，但

there's much more than that, with full sections dedicated to uk, EU and global news.

內容遠不止於此，還有專門介紹英國、歐盟和全球新聞的完整專區。

The EU section includes our interview with fellow creator Money and Macro, where we discuss how to fix the European economy, Macron's fall from grace, and

歐盟專區包含我們與創作者 Money and Macro 的訪談，我們討論瞭如何修復歐洲經濟、馬克宏失勢，以及

how Albania has implemented an AI minister.

阿爾巴尼亞如何設立了 AI 部長。

The Global section discusses why Trump's mandate isn't quite what it seems how politicians conquered social media, as well as our rundown of the biggest elections that happened in 2025 and our UK section runs through the rise of a New Left.

全球專區討論了為什麼川普的執政權並非如表面所示，政治人物如何征服社群媒體，以及我們對2025年最大幾場選舉的總結，而英國專區則探討了新左翼的崛起。

Why next year's elections are critical at all levels, as well as the strategies Starmer ought to take to maintain power and farage to gain power.

為什麼明年的選舉在各個層級都至關重要，以及史塔墨應該採取哪些策略來維持權力，法拉吉又該如何獲得權力。

Digital and physical editions are available right now, with physical editions shipping in the new year and digital copies being straight to your inbox.

數位版和實體版現正發售中，實體版將於新年後寄送，數位版則會直接寄到您的信箱。

Subscribers to Too long automatically get 20% off every copy as long as they stay subscribed.

訂閱 Too long 的人，只要持續訂閱，每期都能享有八折優惠。

But as a special end of year offer, you can get an additional 30% off your first issue if you use code December 25th at checkout.

不過，為了感謝大家，年底前使用折扣碼 December 25th，首期再享七折優惠。

Find out more by heading to Toolong News or by clicking the link in the description.

想知道更多嗎？可以到 Too long News 網站，或是點擊下方連結。