Name: 中國咖啡大戰 — 為什麼星巴克正在輸給瑞幸咖啡！ (China Coffee Wars — Why Starbucks Is Losing The Battle With Luckin)
Uploaded: 2025-12-26T01:26:38.000Z
Duration: 10 min 17 s

It wasn't long ago that China was Starbucks poster child of successful international expansion.

沒多久以前，中國還是星巴克成功的國際擴張的典範。

進階形容詞比較級句型

China was viewed as a fertile growth opportunity just given the urbanization of the population, a growing middle class as well as proclivity for Western brands.

中國被視為一個肥沃的成長機會，這歸因於人口城市化、中產階級的成長以及對西方品牌的偏好。

We can build Starbucks stores in China as fast as we can for the rest of my life and still have addressable market to gain in China.

我們可以一輩子都在中國開設星巴克門市，而且仍然有可觸及的市場可以爭取。

From 2017 to 2020, Starbucks added about 3,200 stores in China.

從 2017 年到 2020 年，星巴克在中國增加了約 3,200 間門市。

Revenue was hit hard by pandemic lockdowns in 2020.

2020 年的疫情封鎖嚴重影響了營收。

Despite China's strict zero COVID policies, the company rebounded with explosive sales growth the following year.

儘管中國實施嚴格的清零政策，該公司在隔年就反彈並出現爆炸性的銷售增長。

Between 2021 and 2024, revenue was down about $700 million, all while Starbucks added an additional 2,200 stores in the country.

在 2021 年到 2024 年之間，營收減少了約 7 億美元，而星巴克卻在這個國家增加了 2,200 間門市。

This is emblematic of a market that's maturing where you do have multiple entrants.

這象徵著一個正在成熟的市場，那裡確實有多個進入者。

In the U.S. of course, there's multiple strong coffee competitors.

在美國當然有很多強勁的咖啡競爭對手。

China didn't necessarily have that 10 years ago, but now you do.

中國十年前不一定有這樣，但現在有了。

那麼，是什麼造成了中國的阻力呢？

Despite volatility in recent years, Starbucks is a historically strong brand that helped shape modern day coffee culture across the world.

儘管近年來波動不定，星巴克是一個歷史上強大的品牌，它塑造了現代全球咖啡文化。

Going out for a cappuccino or a latte was not as much of a thing in the US prior to the 1990s.

在 1990 年代之前，到外面喝卡布奇諾或拿鐵咖啡在美國並不像現在這麼普遍。

所以星巴克在中國定義了這件事。

They also sort of defined the culture, except coffee itself was not widely drank at all in China prior to when Starbucks entered.

他們也定義了這種文化，除了咖啡本身在星巴克進入中國之前，根本沒有被廣泛飲用。

25 years ago, Starbucks grew its presence in China relatively unchallenged until 2017.

25 年前，星巴克在中國的發展相對沒有挑戰，直到 2017 年。

That's when its biggest competitor, Luckin, entered the market.

那時，它最大的競爭對手瑞幸咖啡進入了市場。

By the end of 2018, its valuation had surpassed $2 billion.

到 2018 年底，它的估值已超過 20 億美元。

And the domestic competitor already had about half the number of stores that Starbucks did.

而國內競爭對手擁有的門市數量，大約是星巴克的一半。

What's always been interesting about Starbucks is that it hasn't had a natural domestic rival.

有趣的是，星巴克一直沒有遇到過真正的國內對手。

There are a lot of other American brands that do, but Starbucks hasn't.

許多其他美國品牌都有，但星巴克卻沒有。

So all their competitors have been Costa from the UK or UCC from Japan.

所以他們的競爭對手一直都是來自英國的 Costa 或日本的 UCC。

But by 2020, it seemed that Luckin may not have become the threat that Starbucks initially feared.

但到了 2020 年，瑞幸似乎並沒有成為星巴克最初擔心的威脅。

After news broke that the company fabricated over $300 million in sales, it shut down hundreds of stores and was delisted from the Nasdaq in 2020.

在公司捏造超過 3 億美元銷售額的消息曝光後，它關閉了數百家門市，並於 2020 年從那斯達克除牌。

Still, it emerged from bankruptcy in 2022 and restructured its financial position.

儘管如此，它在 2022 年從破產中恢復，並重整了財務狀況。

From 2022 to 2024, Luckin more than doubled its store count.

從 2022 年到 2024 年，瑞幸的門市數量增加了一倍多。

It now has roughly 6,000 more company operated stores than Starbucks.

現在它的直營門市比星巴克多了約 6,000 間。

It's no bones Pared down coffee shop that allows them to expand fast at a much lower price point.

這是一家精簡的咖啡店，讓他們能以更低的價格快速擴張。

If the taste difference is not differentiating enough, this is dangerous for Starbucks.

如果口味差異不夠明顯，這對星巴克來說就很危險。

And Luckin has proved, just as Starbucks did in its first days, really good at marketing itself.

瑞幸證明瞭，就像星巴克剛起步時一樣，它非常擅長行銷自己。

Luckin's done a really good job of putting their locations in a ton of different places, growing location numbers dramatically.

瑞幸非常擅長將門市設在各種不同的地方，大幅增加門市數量。

A lot of these are very small locations, so they're very easy to set up.

其中許多門市都非常小，所以很容易設立。

You can put them in places like universities and schools and hospitals and people can just go and get a cup of coffee very quickly.

你可以把它們設在大學、學校和醫院等地方，大家可以很快地買到一杯咖啡。

Whereas the Starbucks experience is more of an in store experience, Luckin utilizes a grab and go model.

而星巴克的體驗更偏向店內用餐，瑞幸則採用了隨拿即走模式。

The only way customers can order is through a mobile app.

顧客只能透過行動應用程式點餐。

The company was at the forefront of the now standard catering model when it first opened in China.

這家公司在中國剛開幕時，就走在了現在標準餐飲模式的前沿。

Compared to Luckett, Starbucks saw a spike in 2021, but more recently it has lagged behind Luckin.

跟瑞幸相比，星巴克在2021年曾飆升，但最近卻落後於瑞幸。

Historically, Starbucks has distinguished itself through premiumization.

歷史上，星巴克一直以高端化為特色。

That was especially true in China when it went virtually unrivaled for many years and consumer confidence was strong.

這在中國尤其如此，多年來幾乎沒有競爭對手，消費者信心也很強。

That changed after the pandemic over the last few years.

這在過去幾年疫情後發生了變化。

Starting really in 2122, you really saw a step up in the amount of competitive activity as well in China.

大約從2022年開始，中國的競爭活動也顯著增加。

And I want to say it was around 2022, 2023, when you really start to see the rise of value.

我記得大約在2022年、2023年，你開始真正看到價值觀的興起。

You're really utilized within, within a competitive set.

你真的被納入了一個競爭群體內。

The Chinese consumer has been under a lot of economic pressure in recent years.

近年來，中國消費者承受了很大的經濟壓力。

That means discretionary purchases like a coffee are the first to go.

這意味著像咖啡這樣的非必需品消費將是首當其衝的。

As our survey indicated that when we asked consumers where we'd be cutting back to save money, dining out of restaurants was ranked number one.

我們的調查顯示，當我們問消費者會在哪方面節省開銷時，外出用餐的排名是第一名。

Coffee consumers in China tend to be in their teens, 20s and 30s.

中國的咖啡消費者大多是十幾歲、二十幾歲和三十幾歲的年輕人。

That's the largest and fastest growing market.

這是一個最大且成長最快的市場。

But this is ones that have been hit the greatest by the economic slowdown beginning with zero Covid and the lack of rebound of the Chinese economy ever since the collapse of the real estate market, in which people, including their own parents, who have invested a lot in real estate, suddenly feel 20, 30, 40% poorer than they were before.

但這也是受經濟放緩影響最大的族群，從清零政策開始，再加上中國經濟自房地產市場崩盤以來一直沒有反彈，人們，包括他們的父母，在房地產上投入了很多，突然感覺比以前窮了20%、30%、40%。

That's why Luckin Coffee's biggest edge against Starbucks is price.

這就是瑞幸咖啡對星巴克最大的優勢是價格的原因。

While the sticker price of a latte at both companies is actually relatively similar, Luckin is known for consistently offering steep discounts.

雖然兩家公司拿鐵的標價其實差不多，但瑞幸以持續提供大幅折扣而聞名。

Starbucks, which rarely offers coupons, has been forced into it.

很少提供優惠券的星巴克，現在也不得不這麼做。

China is seeing a lot of promotions right now because consumers are are still under pressure.

中國現在有很多促銷活動，因為消費者仍然承受著壓力。

So you're seeing kind of a Drag from that.

In some cases you're seeing companies that sort of have traffic growth but check declines because of the level of promotions.

在某些情況下，你會看到一些公司雖然流量在增長，但由於促銷的程度，客單價卻在下降。

Other notable competitors include Kati Coffee and Manor, whose drinks typically run at least half the price of Starbucks.

其他值得注意的競爭者包括 Kati Coffee 和 Manor，他們的飲品價格通常是星巴克的一半。

You've got competitors that are growing very quickly.

你會看到一些競爭者成長得非常快。

You've got the fact as well that coffee by nature is a high margin business and so competitors can afford to provide discounts just given there's a high customer lifetime value.

而且咖啡本來就是高利潤的生意，所以競爭者可以負擔得起提供折扣，因為客戶終身價值很高。

Over the past two years, Starbucks has been growing its number of customers in China.

過去兩年，星巴克在中國的客戶數量一直在增長。

But people are spending less at its stores.

但人們在門市的花費卻減少了。

And there's more to the story than just competition.

Chinese nationalism has grown as political tensions remain high between the US and China.

隨著美中政治緊張局勢持續升高，中國民族主義也隨之高漲。

The effects trickle down to even coffee consumption.

At the same time it's subject in a moment of international tension to to what you might think of as brand nationalism.

同時，在國際緊張的時刻，它也受到你可能會想到的品牌民族主義的影響。

It's not that people are anti Starbucks or anti American in not buying Stardust, but

這並不是說大家討厭星巴克或討厭美國，所以不買星巴克，而是

you might be more tempted or at least you're taking somebody out for a date.

你可能會更想，或者至少你會約某人出去約會。

Don't take this woman to show off that you're well off by taking her to a fancy coffee.

別帶這位女士去一家高級咖啡店炫耀你很有錢。

They took her to a patriotic and a Zhongo Tesuda coffee, a special coffee with Chinese characteristics.

他們帶她去喝了有中國特色的愛國咖啡，一種叫「中式特調」的咖啡。

While competition in the country is far more elevated than a decade ago, there's still a lot of space for Starbucks to grow.

雖然中國的競爭比十年前激烈得多，但星巴克仍有很大的成長空間。

China's population is more than four times that of the US plus out of home.

中國的人口是美國的四倍多，而且還包括外出用餐的人口。

Coffee as a concept is still relatively new there and Starbucks differentiates itself as a sit down option while a lot of competitors are grab and go.

咖啡這個概念在那裡相對較新，星巴克將自己定位為可坐下來享用的選擇，而許多競爭對手則是外帶即走。

In the spring we ran a survey of 2,000 consumers in China.

今年春天，我們對中國的 2,000 名消費者進行了調查。

And the survey told us that while 80% of of consumers and respondents identified as coffee drinkers, only 18% drink coffee on a daily basis, signaling that Starbucks is in early innings in what was historically a tea drinking nation.

調查結果顯示，雖然 80% 的消費者和受訪者認為自己是咖啡飲用者，但只有 18% 的人每天喝咖啡，這表明在一個歷史上以茶為主的國家，星巴克仍處於早期階段。

Interestingly, we asked about brand perceptions.

有趣的是，我們還詢問了品牌認知度。

Starbucks ranked highest on taste profile and ranked second on value, second to category leader.

星巴克在口味偏好上排名第一，在價值上排名第二，僅次於品類領導者。

In December 2024, Starbucks hired a chief growth officer to help steer the company back on course.

在 2024 年 12 月，星巴克聘請了一位首席增長官，協助公司重回正軌。

In China, experts say there is opportunity to optimize the brand's offering beyond just cost considerations.

在中國，專家表示除了成本考量之外，還有優化品牌產品的機會。

I don't think competing on prices is really the answer there.

我認為在這裡，價格競爭並不是真正的解決之道。

One of the things they might look into is localization efforts.

他們可能會研究的一件事是在地化推廣。

Other players like KFC and Burger King have done a bit of this where they partner with local players, focus on that premium growth, but

其他像是肯德基和漢堡王等品牌，也做了類似的事情，他們與當地夥伴合作，專注於高端成長，但

Watkin's been doing a whole lot with different flavors and they explore lots of different flavors on a month to month basis.

瑞幸做了很多關於不同口味的嘗試，他們每個月都會探索各種不同的口味。

Another way that Luckin has been able to expand so quickly is by franchising its establishments.

瑞幸能夠快速擴張的另一個方法是透過加盟其門市。

It has around 13,400 company owned stores and 7,400 partnership stores.

它大約有 13,400 家直營店和 7,400 家合作夥伴店。

It collects royalties from these independently run partnership stores.

它從這些獨立經營的合作夥伴店收取權利金。

Starbucks operates that same type of mixed model in the US it licenses operators to run stores that are typically found inside targets or airports where real estate would operate otherwise be inaccessible.

星巴克在美國也採用相同的混合模式，它授權經營者在通常位於 Target 或機場內的門市營運，這些地方的房地產原本可能難以進入。

In China, all of Starbucks establishments are currently company operated.

在中國，星巴克的所有門市目前都是由公司營運。

這只是時間問題，不是會不會。

You see the China ownership structure shift into something more asset light, for instance, via a licensee or a joint venture.

你會看到中國的所有權結構轉變為更輕資產的模式，例如透過授權經營者或合資企業。

Typically what you see international markets is that it's an all or nothing.

通常在國際市場上，你會看到全有或全無的情況。

And I think that with China it would make sense to make it 100% licensed or franchised rather than splitting that up.

我認為中國應該完全授權經營或加盟，而不是將其分開。

It creates a little bit less earnings volatility.

I think it creates a little bit less operational risk.