Name: 這波外交行動能促成可行和平計畫嗎？ | DW News (Could this new diplomatic push result in a viable peace plan? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-12-13T17:01:45.000Z
Duration: 8 min 14 s

In Ukraine, thousands of people are facing major blackouts after another night of intense Russian attacks.

在烏克蘭，經過又一個俄羅斯猛烈攻擊的夜晚後，數千人正遭遇大規模停電。

情態副詞

The southern port city of Odesa and its power grid came under particularly heavy fire.

南部港口城市敖德薩及其電力網遭受了特別嚴重的砲擊。

The government in Kyiv says Russia launched hundreds of drones and at least 30 ballistic missiles overnight.

基輔政府表示，俄羅斯在夜間發射了數百架無人機和至少30枚彈道飛彈。

Elsewhere, at least two people were reported killed in Russian drone attacks.

在其他地方，據報導至少有兩人死於俄羅斯的無人機襲擊。

Meanwhile, preparations are underway for another round of talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.

與此同時，旨在結束烏克蘭戰爭的另一輪會談也在籌備中。

Ukraine US Special envoy Steve Witkoff, who was in Moscow earlier this month, is due to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders in Berlin.

烏克蘭美國特使 Steve Witkoff 本月稍早曾到訪莫斯科，他將在柏林與烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基及其他歐洲領導人會面。

Let's bring in DW's chief political editor Michaela Kufner.

讓我們連線 DW 的首席政治編輯 Michaela Kufner。

She's standing by at a CSU party congress in Munich, where Chancellor Friedersch Metz will speak later today.

她正在慕尼黑的 CSU 黨代表大會現場，總理 Friedersch Metz 將於今天稍後發表演說。

Michaela, any chance we could see a truce before Christmas?

Michaela，我們有可能在聖誕節前看到休戰嗎？

it's very likely in terms of the timeline we're already hearing out of Moscow, even before it is seen the latest proposal that is due to be hammered out from the side of Ukraine, its allies and the US that this whole process will take a long time.

根據我們從莫斯科聽到的時間表，即使在烏克蘭、其盟友和美國提出最終提案之前，整個過程就已經會耗費很長時間。

So clearly Moscow is interested to still be seen as a side that is interested in peace, in some kind of truce.

所以莫斯科顯然有興趣讓人覺得他們是關心和平、關心某種休戰的一方。

But it might well choose to take a long time to respond and to then start, of course, negotiating over details.

但他們很可能會選擇花很長時間來回應，然後再開始協商細節。

Moscow is already saying that it feels that that initial 28 point plan that really shocked the Europeans that that would be and I quote, worsened.

莫斯科已經表示，他們認為最初那個讓歐洲人震驚的 28 點計畫，會被「惡化」。

That's exactly the intention from the Ukrainian and the European side.

這正是烏克蘭和歐洲方面的意圖。

It simply was unacceptable to see Ukraine put in a position where it has to make major concessions in terms of territory and gets very little in exchange, let alone the economic interests that are coming into place.

讓烏克蘭處於必須在領土上做出重大讓步，卻幾乎一無所獲的境地，更不用說經濟利益了，這是絕對無法接受的。

We know that the US Side, that Donald Trump personally is interested in getting a peace as as all sides will then agree to call it signed as soon as possible.

我們知道美國方面，唐納·川普本人，希望盡快簽署一份所有各方都會同意的和平協議。

And the fact that Steve Whitkoff is coming and Jared Kushner is son in law is also expected in Berlin to sit down with from the Ukrainian side, sit down with Zelensky, with the Europeans, with NATO.

Steve Whitkoff 的到來，以及 Jared Kushner 這位女婿，也預計將在柏林與烏克蘭方面、澤倫斯基、歐洲人、以及北約會面。

That is an indication that there clearly is big progress in the making to produce something that would then be looked at by Moscow and potentially frowned upon.

這顯示了正在取得重大進展，以提出一份能讓莫斯科審視，並可能皺眉的東西。

But there are still major sticking points like the accession, how fast there could be an accession of Ukraine to the European Union.

但還是有一些主要的癥結點，像是烏克蘭加入歐盟的速度。

Currently we're hearing it could be as early as 2027.

That won't go down well with the Russian side for sure.

這肯定不會讓俄羅斯那邊高興。

And what territorial concessions there be whether there will be an effectively demilitarized zone, whether Russia also has to withdraw forces, and

以及會有什麼領土讓步，會不會有一個實際上的非軍事區，俄羅斯是否也必須撤軍，還有

most importantly, what security guarantees does Wyckoff have that the United States would be willing to give Ukraine?

最重要的是，Wyckoff 有什麼樣的安全保證，是美國願意給烏克蘭的？

That has basically set that for sure as a precondition.

這基本上已經確定是個先決條件了。

And we share briefly the meetings happen here in Germany.

我們也簡短分享了這些會議在德國舉行。

Can you tell us more about that and Germany's role?

你能多告訴我們一些關於這件事以及德國的角色嗎？

Well, it was German Chancellor Felicia who got Donald Trump on the phone after that 28 point plan was tabled.

嗯，是德國總理 Felicia 在那份 28 點計畫被提出後，打電話給唐納·川普的。

Initially we learned that that has been reduced to more round about 20 points now deducting pulling some of the stings out of this.

一開始我們得知，這份計畫已經縮減到大約 20 點，現在移除了一些比較尖銳的部分。

So clearly there is a rapport between Friedrich Matz and Donald Trump that he is now using.

所以很明顯，Friedersch Metz 和 Donald Trump 之間有種默契，他現在正在利用這點。

The fact that he's getting everybody around the table, of course, except Russia.

當然，他讓所有人都坐到談判桌旁，除了俄羅斯。

That is a signal of Germany being a major diplomatic player, more so than Europe, than Brussels, than Ursula von der Leyen, the EU commission president.

這顯示德國是個重要的外交參與者，比歐洲、比布魯塞爾、比歐盟執委會主席 Ursula von der Leyen 更重要。

But that's no surprise, of course, because we just saw that new security strategy come out that was very condescending of the European Union itself.

但這當然沒什麼好意外的，因為我們剛才看到了那份新的安全戰略，其中對歐盟本身非常傲慢。

So this is a good sign for Germany being able to be a negotiator mediator here.

所以這對德國能在此擔任談判調解者來說是個好跡象。

But let's wait what comes out of this by Monday.

但我們還是等等看週一會有什麼結果吧。

Now for more, let's bring in DW's Russia analyst Konstantin Eggert.

接下來，我們請 DW 的俄羅斯分析師 Konstantin Eggert 加入。

What do you make of this new diplomatic push?

Do you think there's a chance that it could lead to a viable peace plan?

你覺得有機會促成一個可行的和平計畫嗎？

Well, it could lead to new plan that will be written up.

嗯，這可能會促成一個新的、會被寫下來的計畫。

We've heard that, for example, the American administration has heard the concerns in Kyiv about the fate of Donbass, the eastern bulk of Ukraine, if you wish.

我們聽說，舉例來說，美國政府聽到了基輔對於頓巴斯，也就是烏克蘭東部的命運的擔憂。

And there are conversations about making it a demilitarized zone rather than just hand it over to Russia.

而且現在有在討論將其設為非軍事區，而不是直接交給俄羅斯。

So in this respect, yes, it seems like there is movement between Western allies, especially Europeans and the government of Ukraine.

所以從這個角度來看，是的，西方盟友，特別是歐洲國家和烏克蘭政府之間，似乎確實有在推進。

In this respect, yes, we could see some kind of new set of proposals or rather updated set of proposals as a result of the meetings of the European leaders with President Zelensky of Ukraine.

從這個角度來看，是的，我們可能會看到歐洲領導人與烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基會面後，提出一套新的提案，或者說是更新過的提案。

And then later, I think in about a couple of days, the meeting between Chancellor Friedrich Meltz and Zelensky.

然後我認為，大概幾天後，總理 Friedersch Metz 和澤倫斯基會有會面。

Is there any chance Russia would actually consider anything that's agreed on here in Berlin or are Moscow's demands essentially set in stone?

俄羅斯有可能會認真考慮在柏林這裡達成的任何協議嗎？還是莫斯科的要求已經是板上釘釘了？

Tony, the short answer is no, and we can move to another question.

Tony，簡短的回答是「不會」，我們可以換下一個問題了。

The longer answer will be I do think that it's not going to be an immediate no by the Russians.

更長遠的回答是，我認為俄羅斯不會立刻說「不」。

They will continue to press and present Some kind of demands that will look as if they are, or rather produce an impression that they are negotiating.

他們會繼續施壓，提出一些看起來像是他們在協商的條件，或者說製造一種他們在協商的印象。

Personally, I do not think that the Kremlin is, or actually was from the beginning in any mood to strike a peace deal.

我個人不認為克里姆林宮從一開始就有意願達成和平協議。

What they do want are conversations about conversations about peace.

他們真正想要的是關於和平的對話。

And this is a completely different matter.

While I think Putin thinks that he has an upper hand on the battlefield, and

我認為普丁覺得自己在戰場上佔有優勢，而且

essentially, I do not think his calculation changed for years, he wants to wear down Ukraine, but

基本上，我認為他的算計多年來都沒有改變，他想耗盡烏克蘭的力量，然後

break it and then put it under Russia's full political control.

將其擊垮，進而完全掌控烏克蘭的政治。

And of course, all of this is coming as the EU is working on freezing 200 billion euros in Russian assets.

當然，這一切的發生，正值歐盟努力凍結俄羅斯2000億歐元的資產。

How do you think this move could affect the wider peace effort?

你認為這個舉動會如何影響更廣泛的和平努力？

Well, I think it will impact the tone and, by the way, will give the Russians an excuse to say, sorry, we're leaving any time, but

嗯，我認為這會影響氣氛，而且，順帶一提，這也會給俄羅斯一個藉口說，抱歉，我們隨時要離開了，但是

I do not think the Kremlin will leave the process.

我不認為克里姆林宮會退出談判。

And just now what they would rather design are some kind of measures against the Europeans, against the eu Maybe there's going to be some confiscation of European property, remaining European properties in Russia proper.

他們現在更想設計的是一些針對歐洲人、針對歐盟的措施。也許會沒收俄羅斯境內剩餘的歐洲資產。

I do not think it will lead to an immediate breakdown in talks, because protracting them, as I already said, is something that I think the Kremlin council now, they do not want to see a situation which they will break off the talks and then Trump suddenly will say, well, by the way, now you can do whatever you want with the Russians, and

我不認為這會導致談判立即破裂，因為延長談判，就像我剛才說的，我認為克里姆林宮現在的考量是，他們不想看到那種他們會中斷談判，然後川普突然說，好了，你們現在可以隨便對待俄羅斯了，而且

then the Ukrainians and the Europeans will have basically much freer hands to deal with Moscow.

烏克蘭人和歐洲人基本上就會有更自由的手來處理莫斯科。

DW Russia analyst Konstantin Eggert, thank you for that.

DW俄羅斯分析師Konstantin Eggert，謝謝你的分析。