Name: 馬杜羅總統能「撐下去」嗎？美國施壓升級，委內瑞拉未來怎麼辦？| DW 新聞 (Can Venezuela’s President Maduro ‘wait it out’ as US ramps up the pressure? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-12-04T16:56:18.000Z
Duration: 9 min

分詞構句

Venezuela's leader, Nicolas Maduro has commented on his recent phone call with Donald Trump, calling it respectful and cordial.

委內瑞拉領導人尼古拉斯·馬杜羅評論了他最近與唐納·川普的通話，稱其為尊重且友好的。

過去完成式

Trump said on Sunday that he had spoken to Maduro, but he didn't reveal any details.

川普週日表示他已與馬杜羅通話，但沒有透露任何細節。

Now, the call came after a significant buildup of US Military forces in the Caribbean and Trump's warning that any country linked to the drug trade could be subject to attack.

現在，這次通話發生在美國軍隊在加勒比地區顯著集結，以及川普警告任何與毒品交易有關的國家都可能遭到攻擊之後。

Let's talk about Venezuela now with Christopher Sabatini, senior Research Fellow for Latin America, US and the Americas Program at the Chatham House think tank in London.

接下來我們來談談委內瑞拉，有請拉丁美洲、美國與美洲計畫的高級研究員，查塔姆研究所的克里斯多福·薩巴提尼。

Given the military buildup that we're seeing here, do you think that Washington is planning a military intervention in Venezuela anytime soon?

鑑於我們看到的軍隊集結，您認為華盛頓近期是否計劃在委內瑞拉進行軍事幹預？

I suspect there will be an intervention of some sort.

我認為某種形式的幹預是會發生的。

An invasion is unlikely for the same reason your report just said it requires many more troops than those that are parked off the coast of Venezuela.

入侵不太可能，原因和您的報告剛才說的一樣，這需要比停在委內瑞拉海岸的兵力多得多的部隊。

And Trump simply does not have the stomach or patience for what he called in 2016, these forever wars or state building wars.

而川普根本沒有那個耐心或膽量去進行他稱之為「永久戰爭」或「國家建設戰爭」的行動。

What I think he's hoping to do and was hoping to do 20 weeks ago when he started this, was trying to show a force, rattle the saber a little bit and then attempt to frighten the military into doing what he wants to do, which is remove Maduro.

我認為他希望做到的，也是他兩週前開始這件事時希望做到的，是展示武力，稍微揮舞一下軍刀，然後試圖嚇唬軍方，讓他們照他希望的去做，也就是讓馬杜羅下臺。

He was arguing this was largely a narco terrorist organization, the government that was sort of a legitimate target for US Intervention and US Military strikes.

他認為這基本上是一個毒梟恐怖組織，政府某種程度上是美國軍隊和軍方進行軍事幹預和軍事打擊的合法目標。

But clearly he's shown recently that this is really about regime change.

但顯然他最近表明，這實際上是為了政權更迭。

It's really about removing Maduro, as he indicated in his phone call discussing his phone call with Nicolas Maduro.

這實際上是為了讓馬杜羅下臺，正如他在討論與尼古拉斯·馬杜羅通話時所說的。

But the question is, is a show of force just off the coast of Venezuela sufficient to spark the military defection, or are his calls with Nicolas Maduro sufficient to convince Michael es Maduro to leave?

但問題是，在委內瑞拉海岸展示武力是否足以引發軍方叛變，或者他與尼古拉斯·馬杜羅的通話是否足以說服馬杜羅離開？

But in either event, it's unlikely to provoke the sort of democratic transition that he and his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, seem to aspire to, along with the democratic opposition in Venezuela.

但無論如何，這不太可能引發他與他的國務卿馬可·魯比歐，以及委內瑞拉的民主反對派所期望的那種民主轉型。

So President Maduro described this phone call with Donald Trump as respectful and cordial, and

所以馬杜羅總統形容這次與唐納·川普的通話是互相尊重且友好的，

he said he hoped the call would be a step towards what he called respectful dialogue.

他說他希望這次通話是朝著他所說的互相尊重的對話邁出的一步。

What do you see Maduro's strategy as being here right now?

你認為馬杜羅現在的策略是什麼？

I think Maduro's strategy is to wait it out.

First of all, I think with pressure building, the United States in opposition to this military buildup and now even more in opposition to the boat strikes that it seems, well, we already knew they were quite likely in violation of international law.

首先，我認為隨著壓力越來越大，美國反對這次軍事集結，現在甚至更反對這些船隻襲擊，看起來，嗯，我們早就知道這些很可能違反國際法。

There have been 21 boat strikes that have killed over 80 people.

有21起船隻襲擊，造成80多人死亡。

Most people argue that those were in violation of international law concerning the laws of war.

大多數人認為這些違反了有關戰爭法的國際法。

But now recently it's been revealed that not only did the missile, the first missile actually that took out a boat, then follow up, then was followed up with a series of four other missiles or three other missiles to take out the survivors.

但最近才揭露，不僅是第一枚導彈擊毀了一艘船，緊接著又發射了另外三枚或四枚導彈來清除倖存者。

There's really serious fear that this is not just in violation of the laws of war, but

人們非常擔心這不僅違反了戰爭法，

而且還違反了美國軍隊的行為準則。

So now we're seeing Republicans beginning to raise very serious questions about what is at stake here and what are the Trump objectives.

所以現在我們看到共和黨人開始對這裡的利害關係以及川普的目標提出非常嚴肅的問題。

And for that reason, I think it's going to be difficult to for Nicolas Maduro to sort of negotiate his own exit because right now, quite frankly, Donald Trump is on the back foot and I think there's serious questions.

出於這個原因，我認為尼古拉斯·馬杜羅很難協商自己的退出，因為坦白說，唐納·川普現在處於劣勢，我認為有嚴重的問題。

So if I were Nicolas Maduro, and thank God I'm not, I would be waiting this out.

所以如果我是尼古拉斯·馬杜羅，謝天謝地我不是，我會靜觀其變。

And I think what we're seeing is the likelihood of a very full fledged military attack, an invasion would never happen.

我認為我們現在看到的是一場全面軍事攻擊的可能性，但入侵絕對不會發生。

But I think always on the table were a series of missile or drone strikes against selected targets, including maybe even taking out Nicolas Maduro and some of his inner circle.

但我認為，針對特定目標發動一系列導彈或無人機襲擊，包括可能除掉尼古拉斯·馬杜羅和他的一些親信，這始終是選項之一。

Now I think this is the likelihood is decreasing as political questions and even pressure is beginning to mount on Trump.

現在，我認為這種可能性正在降低，因為政治上的質疑甚至壓力開始對川普不斷增加。

So I think in the scale of escalation, what we'll see is more on the minor side.

所以，我認為在升級的規模上，我們會看到比較溫和的發展。

If Trump decides to go in and take out individual military targets, they will be more focused on military targets and drug sites.

如果川普決定採取行動，清除個別軍事目標，他們會更專注於軍事目標和毒品據點。

Now, Venezuela doesn't produce cocaine, but

現在，委內瑞拉並不生產古柯鹼，但是

the drug sites would he'd be talking about and targeting would be airstrips and warehouses where that cocaine is trans shipped from Colombia.

他會談論並鎖定的毒品據點將是機場和倉庫，古柯鹼會從哥倫比亞在這裡轉運。

Christopher Zapotini from the Chatham Health think tank, we'll have to leave it there, but

查塔姆研究所的克里斯多福·薩巴提尼，我們就先聊到這裡，但

And let's get more from DW correspondent Oscar Schlenker who has reported from Venezuela for many years.

接下來我們連線 DW 的記者 Oscar Schlenker，他多年來都在委內瑞拉採訪。

Oscar, what are you hearing from Venezuelans?

Oscar，你從委內瑞拉民眾那裡聽到了什麼？

Do they actually believe that the United States will invade their country?

他們真的相信美國會入侵他們的國家嗎？

Well, that's what many people are expecting after the threats that Donald Trump has made over the past months.

嗯，這是許多人在唐納·川普過去幾個月發出威脅後所預期的。

Even so, people are expecting some kind of strike in Venezuela in order to pressure Maduro into fleeing the country or stepping down from the government.

即使如此，人們還是預期會有某種形式的攻擊，目的是逼迫馬杜羅逃離國家或下臺。

Speaking of pressure, I mean, we have hearing that two Panamanian airlines are suspending flights to to Venezuela, joining several other carriers.

說到壓力，我聽到兩家巴拿馬航空公司正在暫停飛往委內瑞拉的班機，這讓其他幾家航空公司也跟進了。

Is that adding to the kind of pressure that Venezuela is facing at the moment.

這是否增加了委內瑞拉目前面臨的壓力呢？

These were the last two international airlines still operating in Venezuela.

這是最後兩家仍在委內瑞拉營運的國際航空公司。

After the US Warnings last week, several airlines suspended briefly their flights to and from Venezuela.

上週美國發出警告後，幾家航空公司曾短暫暫停飛往委內瑞拉的班機。

And then in retaliation, Venezuelan authorities withdrew their operating licenses.

接著作為報復，委內瑞拉當局吊銷了它們的營運執照。

So as of now, the airspace in Venezuela, and

所以到目前為止，委內瑞拉的領空，

you can see it in any flight map, is completely closed.

你可以在任何飛航地圖上看到，是完全關閉的。

There are no flights except for those some few very, very few national flights.

除了極少數的國內班機外，沒有其他飛機。

The situation obviously raises alarms in Venezuela and neighboring countries, bracing for what could be a strike from the US in land targets in Venezuela, as Trump has pointed out several times without much detail.

這情況顯然在委內瑞拉和鄰近國家敲響了警鐘，大家都在為川普曾多次提及但細節不明的美國可能對委內瑞拉陸上目標發動的攻擊做準備。

Now, yesterday on DW's news desk, former U.S.

昨天，在 DW 的新聞編輯室，前美國

ambassador of Venezuela James Storey said those strikes could be targeting clandestine airstrips or guerrilla encampments, which the US has already done in the past together with Colombia, which is their biggest ally in the region, and

駐委內瑞拉大使 James Storey 表示，這些攻擊可能針對的是祕密機場跑道或遊擊隊營地，美國過去曾與其在該地區最大的盟友哥倫比亞一起這麼做過，

they have done it in Colombian territory.

他們在哥倫比亞的領土上就這麼做過。

attack could even mean targeting key figures like Dios Dabo Cabello, which of course, would be a much more severe outcome.

攻擊甚至可能意味著針對像迪奧斯達多·卡貝羅這樣的重要人物，這當然會是更嚴重的後果。

And how much pressure does that put Nicolas Maduro under?

這會給尼古拉斯·馬杜羅帶來多大的壓力？

I mean, how secure is Maduro in Venezuela?

也就是說，馬杜羅在委內瑞拉有多穩固？

Does he have enough support of members of the army such that they will fight for him, or is he getting increasingly isolated?

他是否得到了軍隊成員足夠的支持，讓他們願意為他而戰，還是他越來越孤立？

Well, he's increasingly isolated internationally, but

嗯，他在國際上越來越孤立，但是

Maduro has a very evident control of the nation's military and their support, as well as the other institutions Chavismo has set up in Venezuela to ensure their grasp on power.

馬杜羅對國家軍隊及其支持，以及查維斯主義在委內瑞拉設立的其他機構，以確保他們對權力的掌控，有著非常明顯的控制力。

Without the support of the military or the institutions, it would have been impossible for Maduro to steal last year's elections because there was so much evidence towards Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia's victory.

如果沒有軍隊或機構的支持，馬杜羅就不可能竊取去年的選舉，因為有太多證據顯示埃德蒙多·岡薩雷斯·烏魯蒂亞獲勝。

Plus, the repression against the opposition that followed to silence any dissent was severe.

此外，隨後為了壓制任何異議而對反對派進行的鎮壓也非常嚴厲。

I mean, it has been a brutal year for Venezuelan civil society and for democracy.

說真的，對委內瑞拉的公民社會和民主來說，今年是極其殘酷的一年。

But Maduro is still standing strong despite countless reports of crimes against humanity, human rights violations.

但儘管有無數關於反人類罪、侵犯人權的報導，馬杜羅依然屹立不搖。

If he remains in power, we can expect a hardening of the repressive apparatus of the regime.

如果他繼續掌權，我們可以預期這個政權的鎮壓機器會更加強硬。

這也是許多委內瑞拉人的感受。

But is there a window here for the opposition to try and make itself a little more visible?

但反對派是否還有機會讓自己變得更為人所見呢？

Because we're hearing that there is a march that's been organized by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Marina Corinna Machado tomorrow.

因為我們聽說，諾貝爾和平獎得主瑪麗亞·科裡納·馬查多明天將組織一場遊行。

Is there an opening here for the opposition?

Venezuelans already voted last year and elected Edmundo Gonzalez Orruvia to lead this transition.

委內瑞拉人去年已經投票，選出了埃德蒙多·岡薩雷斯·烏魯蒂亞來領導這次的轉型。

And that was made possible after Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado was blocked several times from running.

而這一切得以實現，是因為諾貝爾和平獎得主瑪麗亞·科裡納·馬查多曾多次被阻止參選。

So she is also expected to play an important role in shaping a new Venezuela if there is in fact change in Venezuela.

所以如果委內瑞拉真的有變革，她預計也會在塑造新委內瑞拉的過程中扮演重要角色。

As of now, she is hidden inside Venezuela.

目前，她人還在委內瑞拉境內。

She has said she will be present to receive the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo next week.

她曾表示，下週她將親自前往奧斯陸領取諾貝爾和平獎。

We just don't know how she's going to get there.

我們只是不知道她要怎麼去那裡。

We'll see how these demonstrations of support will go on for her this weekend.

我們將看看這週末這些支持她的遊行示威會如何發展。

奧斯卡·施倫卡，非常感謝你的分享。